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Poll: How does a Cinderella relcet seeding
Cinderella was underseeded
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When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #1
When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
When a low seed goes on run, doesn't more reflect their seed or their opponent's?
04-05-2021 05:35 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #2
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
Write-in vote: **** happens
04-05-2021 06:31 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #3
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
(04-05-2021 05:35 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  When a low seed goes on run, doesn't more reflect their seed or their opponent's?

Not much. Remember, the best team doesn't always win a given game.
04-05-2021 06:32 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
(04-05-2021 06:31 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Write-in vote: **** happens

Yup.


Sometimes both happen (like Illinois/Loyola) - Illinois was overseeded, Loyola was underseeded. Other times, a team just plays well against a certain opponent. They are college kids, they can overlook an opponent.
04-05-2021 06:46 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
(04-05-2021 06:31 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Write-in vote: **** happens

my vote too.

Here are the final stats based on seed (round of 64 onward):

average wins:
Seeds 1-2 = 3.000 wins per teams
Seeds 3-6 = 1.063
Seeds 7-10 = 0.625
Seeds 11-13 =0.750
Seeds 14-16 = 0.250

Notes:
* seeds 7-10 ("churn") had 10 wins, but 8 were first round against each other, only 2 against higher seeds
* seeds 11-13 included at-large play-ins, surprise major conference champs and top 4 single bid champions (higher net, more wins going in)

Your chances fall off the lower your seed. The sample size is small so large variances. But it seems to fit. Actually the numbers look good. It's never a lock to win, that is why an undefeated team is so unusual. Or as they say why you play the game.

We had a weird year, with the Pac-12 under seeded due to low sample size and poor recent past performances. Arguably the seeds of SDSU and LUC should have been switched, as they overrated the MWC champion and underrated the MVC champion. Those account for most of the larger than normal lower seed advancing. But beyond that the committee seems to have been mostly correct, with the overall #1 and #2 seeds playing in the Championship. The rest is the usual "Madness" which makes it so fun.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2021 07:14 PM by Stugray2.)
04-05-2021 07:02 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #6
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
Yup, that's why they call it "March Madness"!
04-05-2021 07:41 PM
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TDenverFan Online
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Post: #7
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
7-10 is in a tough spot in terms of average wins; half are guaranteed a win, half are guaranteed a loss. And even the winning teams get the short straw of (usually) playing a 1 or 2 seed in the next round
04-05-2021 08:18 PM
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
It's a mix. It also reflects math as well. If a 4 is going to beat a 13 seed 90% of the time, then the #4 seed losing doesn't necessarily mean the #4 seed was overrated or the #13 seed underrated, but math catches up to you some times. I think you can only getting a true feeling for overrated vs. underrated with looking at much bigger patterns and that still depends on what you value in that ranking (if you think every game counts equally, then a team that starts hot and ends cold will be overrated relative to how they are playing before the tournament).
04-06-2021 12:20 AM
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jgkojak Offline
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Post: #9
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
Two things impact seeding:

1) In-conference comparisons

2) Non-con comparisons

In the Covid year, where so many games were canceled or played with missing players, there were many fewer comparisons available. So seeding should have been harder.

In general, if every conf did home and home, we'd be able to have a lot better data on comparing relative strength of programs.

I, for one, tend to think in bball you should be required to home and home and in football you play everybody. This would obviously reduce the #of teams in conferences to a max of 11, but it would make for a better product.

Go to an 8 team play off, roll 1-2 teams off Pac, 3 teams off ACC, SEC and B1G, add the teams that should be in a P5 conf (UConn, Cinci) and you an extra power conference.
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2021 12:31 PM by jgkojak.)
04-06-2021 12:30 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #10
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
(04-05-2021 08:18 PM)TDenverFan Wrote:  7-10 is in a tough spot in terms of average wins; half are guaranteed a win, half are guaranteed a loss. And even the winning teams get the short straw of (usually) playing a 1 or 2 seed in the next round

7-10 are traditionally some of the least desirable seeds because winning your first game results in a match up against a 1 or 2 (so the 8 best teams in the bracket).

The trick to the bracket is staying as far away from the 1s and 2s as possible.

When was the last time a 7-10 seed made a deep run?
04-06-2021 01:13 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #11
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
(04-06-2021 01:13 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(04-05-2021 08:18 PM)TDenverFan Wrote:  7-10 is in a tough spot in terms of average wins; half are guaranteed a win, half are guaranteed a loss. And even the winning teams get the short straw of (usually) playing a 1 or 2 seed in the next round

7-10 are traditionally some of the least desirable seeds because winning your first game results in a match up against a 1 or 2 (so the 8 best teams in the bracket).

The trick to the bracket is staying as far away from the 1s and 2s as possible.

When was the last time a 7-10 seed made a deep run?

11-seeds have reached the final four 4 times. 9 and 10 seeds combined 3 times

7 seeds have gotten there 4 times. 8 seeds have a better record - with 6 appearances.
04-06-2021 01:19 PM
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Eldonabe Online
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Post: #12
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
Was it Al Davis who said ...... On any given Sunday?
04-07-2021 10:56 AM
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whittx Offline
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Post: #13
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
It depends on the situation. For example, the Cornell team that made the Sweet 16 was under seeded. If they had not lost to an abysmal Penn,they would have been a 10 seed. The issue with overseeing teams is that typically those teams have legit resumes that justify the seeding, but even then, you don't see teams so egregiously over seeded that it's more than 2 seeds. For example, Ohio State (A 2 seed) wouldn't be worse than a 4 seed if we retroactively looked at seeding.
04-08-2021 06:26 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #14
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
(04-05-2021 06:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(04-05-2021 06:31 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Write-in vote: **** happens

Yup.


Sometimes both happen (like Illinois/Loyola) - Illinois was overseeded, Loyola was underseeded. Other times, a team just plays well against a certain opponent. They are college kids, they can overlook an opponent.

Illinois was not overseeded. Loyola was playing big state u and was extremely pumped for that game. They subsequently lost to a 12 seed.

* I should say I’m on record saying the Big Ten was overrated. Illinois still looked the best of the bunch once Livers went out.
(This post was last modified: 04-08-2021 07:00 AM by esayem.)
04-08-2021 06:58 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #15
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
(04-08-2021 06:58 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(04-05-2021 06:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(04-05-2021 06:31 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Write-in vote: **** happens

Yup.


Sometimes both happen (like Illinois/Loyola) - Illinois was overseeded, Loyola was underseeded. Other times, a team just plays well against a certain opponent. They are college kids, they can overlook an opponent.

Illinois was not overseeded. Loyola was playing big state u and was extremely pumped for that game. They subsequently lost to a 12 seed.

* I should say I’m on record saying the Big Ten was overrated. Illinois still looked the best of the bunch once Livers went out.

Fully agree that Illinois was not overseeded. That pairing was the worst seeding job of the tournament, imo. Maybe one of the worst since Wichita State drew a top line and had to either get Louisville or Kentucky in Indianapolis that one year. Or the year UConn won the title where that whole eastern region were neutralized geographically.

And then you had one wannabe Cinderella in Loyola versus the real deal in Oregon State.
04-08-2021 08:10 AM
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CitrusUCF Offline
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RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
The talent gap is not as great as people think between 5-13 seeds. The 5 seeds are definitely better on the whole than the 12 seeds, but not enough that they can't lose a game against a determined team with a lot of pressure on the 5 seed to perform. The pressure is one of the big differences in the tournament. There is an expectation for the high seeds to win, while the low seeds can play with "nothing to lose." If you played these games in the regular season, the higher seeds would win more than they do in the tournament, I would think.

I mention the 13 seeds because those are always mid-major champions who should have been ranked higher but the committee almost never seeds a P5+BE team below 12. Georgetown was not worthy of a 12 seed, but they got one because that's the floor for those six conferences. I think a very bad Georgia team that won the SEC tourney a decade or so ago is the only example anyone could produce of a lower seed for those conferences. So the 13 seed likely should have been a 9-12, but those last spots are reserved for the power conferences.
(This post was last modified: 04-08-2021 10:16 AM by CitrusUCF.)
04-08-2021 10:15 AM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #17
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
You're right Citrus, "protected seeds" NEVER open with a fellow power team.
04-08-2021 05:18 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #18
RE: When the Big Dance has a "Cinderella", what does it say about seeding
(04-08-2021 10:15 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  The talent gap is not as great as people think between 5-13 seeds. The 5 seeds are definitely better on the whole than the 12 seeds, but not enough that they can't lose a game against a determined team with a lot of pressure on the 5 seed to perform. The pressure is one of the big differences in the tournament. There is an expectation for the high seeds to win, while the low seeds can play with "nothing to lose." If you played these games in the regular season, the higher seeds would win more than they do in the tournament, I would think.

I mention the 13 seeds because those are always mid-major champions who should have been ranked higher but the committee almost never seeds a P5+BE team below 12. Georgetown was not worthy of a 12 seed, but they got one because that's the floor for those six conferences. I think a very bad Georgia team that won the SEC tourney a decade or so ago is the only example anyone could produce of a lower seed for those conferences. So the 13 seed likely should have been a 9-12, but those last spots are reserved for the power conferences.

Other than the Georgia year, this one is the only one in recent memory that you could even make a case that a power-conference champ should have gotten a 13 or worse, and really, Georgetown and Oregon State earned their 12s with what they did in their conference tournaments. I mean, you could have dropped them a line, but let's not act like they're sub-.500 teams that deserved 15s or 16s landing in a cushy matchup that they don't deserve.
04-08-2021 05:56 PM
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