Updated all time conference records. Bowl games are included.

Holgs is killing us.

Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

32-16 in conf (67%) prior to Holgs arrival, 5-9 (36%) in his two seasons at the helm.

If he doesn't turn it around this season he needs to go.

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

Only 8-8 versus the g4 hurts tho.

Any chance you have the games by home and away original poster?

I use to have some where the break down versus p5 and ND by home/away/neutral with the bowls also pulled out. If I remember right we are close to .500 on neutral and right at or above .500 for home. We get murdered on the road. I think only two of Tulsa's p5 games have been at home, although that is still not an excuse for that horrendous record.

(04-05-2021 03:12 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

Only 8-8 versus the g4 hurts tho.

Any chance you have the games by home and away original poster?

I use to have some where the break down versus p5 and ND by home/away/neutral with the bowls also pulled out. If I remember right we are close to .500 on neutral and right at or above .500 for home. We get murdered on the road. I think only two of Tulsa's p5 games have been at home, although that is still not an excuse for that horrendous record.

cfbstats has schedule breakdowns since 2009 for every FBS team. Holgs is 3-6 at home, 4-4 on the road. He's also 0-12 against FBS schools that finished with winning records.

Worth noting our conference takes care of business when it comes to G4 OOC, only Temple & Navy are under .500 with Temple 1 win from even. I think Navy gets a pass on the stat since their G4 OOC is the Commander-In-Chief Trophy. We all still have some work to do on the P6 OOC though. For UCF our '14-'15 collapse & '16 rebuild screwed us on that stat line with 7 of our 10 losses.

Also really glad we got rid of Heupel with that downward trend.

(04-05-2021 03:12 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

Only 8-8 versus the g4 hurts tho.

Any chance you have the games by home and away original poster?

I use to have somewhere the break down versus p5 and ND by home/away/neutral with the bowls also pulled out. If I remember right we are close to .500 on neutral and right at or above .500 for home. We get murdered on the road. I think only two of Tulsa's p5 games have been at home, although that is still not an excuse for that horrendous record.

yeah, that's why I said we only show up for the P5 and then crap the bed on everyone else for some reason.

although these are good indications it's skewed because a lot of our coaches get poached during bowl games and we have to deal with a lot of coaching turnover as a conference. can't fault the teams for having a bad season afterward.

(04-05-2021 07:42 PM)Agust Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 03:12 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

Only 8-8 versus the g4 hurts tho.

Any chance you have the games by home and away original poster?

I use to have somewhere the break down versus p5 and ND by home/away/neutral with the bowls also pulled out. If I remember right we are close to .500 on neutral and right at or above .500 for home. We get murdered on the road. I think only two of Tulsa's p5 games have been at home, although that is still not an excuse for that horrendous record.

yeah, that's why I said we only show up for the P5 and then crap the bed on everyone else for some reason.

although these are good indications it's skewed because a lot of our coaches get poached during bowl games and we have to deal with a lot of coaching turnover as a conference. can't fault the teams for having a bad season afterward.

That's why I was asking about the home away neutral and bowls. I will have to see if I can track it down so I don't have to compile and check it, I had the g4 games in their too. We do fairly decently versus the p5 in bowls, just below .500 but we are just above .500 versus the g4 in bowls if I remember right. Where as we are closer to winning 75% versus the g4 in regular season home or away, with Navy playing the CIC games that's a pretty good run.

Bowls are different animals, pretty sure I pulled out those numbers when some g4 trolls showed up puffing out their chest. As SLH pointed out to them bowls (other than ny6) are ususally the third or fourth most important game to an AAC team, while for the g4 it is likely their biggest opponent not a buy game and their most viewed game of the season. Add in players sitting out and coaching changes and you get a weird hand of five card stud to play.

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

Cheer up - - It's actually not as gloomy a picture as it might seem for 8 of the 11 AAC FB programs:

Several of the AAC's leading teams have had as much success vs. P5 teams as BYU has had, and the AAC's top 3 teams - as a group - have won a higher % of their games vs. P5 teams than Boise State has.

Houston's (8-5) record vs. P5 teams has been quite a bit better than Boise State's (6-6; .500), a feat which has been matched by Navy, and Cincy (7-8) is only a game below .500.

BYU's record during the period is 12-18 (.400). Four AAC teams (Houston, Cincy, Navy, and UCF) have had a better record vs. P5 than BYU has had since 2013, and four other AAC teams (USF (.389), Memphis, Temple, and ECU - with .357 records - ) aren't too far behind BYU in that respect.

.

Not bad for Memphis considering a 1-7 in first year considered.

A little surprised by SMU's 1-13 against the autonomous schools. Figured you might have caught a couple more wins. Looking at the schedule since 2013, seems like SMU tends to schedule the likes of Texas Tech, TCU, and Texas A&M frequently. Is there any thought to scheduling someone like Kansas State, Kansas or even venturing out into another region to play some winnable P5 opposition (Colorado, Washington State, Vandy, Duke, WF, etc.)?

(04-05-2021 03:00 PM)coogrfan Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

32-16 in conf (67%) prior to Holgs arrival, 5-9 (36%) in his two seasons at the helm.

If he doesn't turn it around this season he needs to go.

With his contract, he's going to be hard to get rid of, I'd imagine.

(04-05-2021 10:30 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

Cheer up - - It's actually not as gloomy a picture as it might seem for 8 of the 11 AAC FB programs:

Several of the AAC's leading teams have had as much success vs. P5 teams as BYU has had, and the AAC's top 3 teams - as a group - have won a higher % of their games vs. P5 teams than Boise State has.

Houston's (8-5) record vs. P5 teams has been quite a bit better than Boise State's (6-6; .500), a feat which has been matched by Navy, and Cincy (7-8) is only a game below .500.

BYU's record during the period is 12-18 (.400). Four AAC teams (Houston, Cincy, Navy, and UCF) have had a better record vs. P5 than BYU has had since 2013, and four other AAC teams (USF (.389), Memphis, Temple, and ECU - with .357 records - ) aren't too far behind BYU in that respect.

.

the "everyone not much" was in reference to our own program. We seem to rise to the challenge but take everyone else for granted. i think this has to be on our coaches. i know in our one semi-good year we took out 2 Top 5 teams but just flaked out the rest of the season. im hoping holgs pulls through but time will tell.

(04-05-2021 07:11 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  Worth noting our conference takes care of business when it comes to G4 OOC, only Temple & Navy are under .500 with Temple 1 win from even. I think Navy gets a pass on the stat since their G4 OOC is the Commander-In-Chief Trophy. We all still have some work to do on the P6 OOC though. For UCF our '14-'15 collapse & '16 rebuild screwed us on that stat line with 7 of our 10 losses.

Also really glad we got rid of Heupel with that downward trend.

Yeah, almost all of our G4 games are Army and Air Force -- but any losses to them are unacceptable! Ha ha. I get the line of thinking that those SHOULD be completely even and everyone gives their best game to their rivals...there's another line out there that at least for Army-Navy, the oddsmakers' favorite wins a vast majority of the time.
We also have the 2016 Armed Forces Bowl loss to LaTech in there. Seemed like half of Navy's starters on both sides of the ball were injured by the end of the year, and that game turned into last-team-with-the-ball and LaTech had the ball last.
We open with Marshall this year and head there in '23.

(04-05-2021 09:02 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 07:42 PM)Agust Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 03:12 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

Only 8-8 versus the g4 hurts tho.

Any chance you have the games by home and away original poster?

I use to have somewhere the break down versus p5 and ND by home/away/neutral with the bowls also pulled out. If I remember right we are close to .500 on neutral and right at or above .500 for home. We get murdered on the road. I think only two of Tulsa's p5 games have been at home, although that is still not an excuse for that horrendous record.

yeah, that's why I said we only show up for the P5 and then crap the bed on everyone else for some reason.

although these are good indications it's skewed because a lot of our coaches get poached during bowl games and we have to deal with a lot of coaching turnover as a conference. can't fault the teams for having a bad season afterward.

That's why I was asking about the home away neutral and bowls. I will have to see if I can track it down so I don't have to compile and check it, I had the g4 games in their too. We do fairly decently versus the p5 in bowls, just below .500 but we are just above .500 versus the g4 in bowls if I remember right. Where as we are closer to winning 75% versus the g4 in regular season home or away, with Navy playing the CIC games that's a pretty good run.

Bowls are different animals, pretty sure I pulled out those numbers when some g4 trolls showed up puffing out their chest. As SLH pointed out to them bowls (other than ny6) are ususally the third or fourth most important game to an AAC team, while for the g4 it is likely their biggest opponent not a buy game and their most viewed game of the season. Add in players sitting out and coaching changes and you get a weird hand of five card stud to play.

Yeah, the G4 fans seem to want to insist that everyone will remember pre-Christmas bowl records and not other results. It is somewhat reasonable for them to think that when it is the most-viewed game for so many of them. But that isn't the case for the AAC. (That conversation a few years back was the gateway drug for a lot of my viewer numbers crunching.)
And you're very right that bowl records are a bad dataset from which to extrapolate any other larger trends. It's a small sample size with a lot of variability in it - coaching changes, opt-outs, different approaches to what IS essentially an exhibition game, etc. The standard G4 fan response to that is that the AAC gets bad results when we face the good G4 teams, but in fact, our usual regular season curbstompings of the G4s are made up of a lot of bowl-eligible teams, and the AAC record against those teams, regular season + bowls is still a net positive.

Happy that Navy has contributed to the success vs teams from other P6 conferences. But we might mess up your math: Military Bowl games neutral for us? Or the ND games that are "home" for financial purposes but at neutral sites? I don't have any "right" answer for accounting for those.

(04-06-2021 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 07:11 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  Worth noting our conference takes care of business when it comes to G4 OOC, only Temple & Navy are under .500 with Temple 1 win from even. I think Navy gets a pass on the stat since their G4 OOC is the Commander-In-Chief Trophy. We all still have some work to do on the P6 OOC though. For UCF our '14-'15 collapse & '16 rebuild screwed us on that stat line with 7 of our 10 losses.

Also really glad we got rid of Heupel with that downward trend.

Yeah, almost all of our G4 games are Army and Air Force -- but any losses to them are unacceptable! Ha ha. I get the line of thinking that those SHOULD be completely even and everyone gives their best game to their rivals...there's another line out there that at least for Army-Navy, the oddsmakers' favorite wins a vast majority of the time.
We also have the 2016 Armed Forces Bowl loss to LaTech in there. Seemed like half of Navy's starters on both sides of the ball were injured by the end of the year, and that game turned into last-team-with-the-ball and LaTech had the ball last.
We open with Marshall this year and head there in '23.

(04-05-2021 09:02 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 07:42 PM)Agust Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 03:12 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

Only 8-8 versus the g4 hurts tho.

Any chance you have the games by home and away original poster?

I use to have somewhere the break down versus p5 and ND by home/away/neutral with the bowls also pulled out. If I remember right we are close to .500 on neutral and right at or above .500 for home. We get murdered on the road. I think only two of Tulsa's p5 games have been at home, although that is still not an excuse for that horrendous record.

yeah, that's why I said we only show up for the P5 and then crap the bed on everyone else for some reason.

although these are good indications it's skewed because a lot of our coaches get poached during bowl games and we have to deal with a lot of coaching turnover as a conference. can't fault the teams for having a bad season afterward.

That's why I was asking about the home away neutral and bowls. I will have to see if I can track it down so I don't have to compile and check it, I had the g4 games in their too. We do fairly decently versus the p5 in bowls, just below .500 but we are just above .500 versus the g4 in bowls if I remember right. Where as we are closer to winning 75% versus the g4 in regular season home or away, with Navy playing the CIC games that's a pretty good run.

Bowls are different animals, pretty sure I pulled out those numbers when some g4 trolls showed up puffing out their chest. As SLH pointed out to them bowls (other than ny6) are ususally the third or fourth most important game to an AAC team, while for the g4 it is likely their biggest opponent not a buy game and their most viewed game of the season. Add in players sitting out and coaching changes and you get a weird hand of five card stud to play.

Yeah, the G4 fans seem to want to insist that everyone will remember pre-Christmas bowl records and not other results. It is somewhat reasonable for them to think that when it is the most-viewed game for so many of them. But that isn't the case for the AAC. (That conversation a few years back was the gateway drug for a lot of my viewer numbers crunching.)
And you're very right that bowl records are a bad dataset from which to extrapolate any other larger trends. It's a small sample size with a lot of variability in it - coaching changes, opt-outs, different approaches to what IS essentially an exhibition game, etc. The standard G4 fan response to that is that the AAC gets bad results when we face the good G4 teams, but in fact, our usual regular season curbstompings of the G4s are made up of a lot of bowl-eligible teams, and the AAC record against those teams, regular season + bowls is still a net positive.

Happy that Navy has contributed to the success vs teams from other P6 conferences. But we might mess up your math: Military Bowl games neutral for us? Or the ND games that are "home" for financial purposes but at neutral sites? I don't have any "right" answer for accounting for those.

While in general I don't recommend it and foreign governments should definitely not follow this advice, I discard Navy for this. I had a number with out them and then a number with them. The ND and Army series being the biggest culprits although the Army game I feel.is traditionally a truly neutral game like OU/Texas. I didn't think about the Military bowl game as a home game, but I had the bowl games seperated out any way. I am going to see if I can find it.

Just to confirm, that OP is listed top to bottom best to worst? Have I got that right?

And if so, which column is the decider of order?

(04-06-2021 12:10 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  Just to confirm, that OP is listed top to bottom best to worst? Have I got that right?

And if so, which column is the decider of order?

Yes, at least when I skimmed it that's what I saw.

It's by conference wins, which is the first column listed.

(04-05-2021 02:53 PM)Agust Wrote:  Not bad for going through 3 coaching changes and bad years of football. UH the P5 killer..and everyone else not much.

Memphis went through 3 coaches too. I recall a tweet recently stating we had the most P5 wins (6) since ?. Let me see if I can find the tweet.

If you throw out 2013, our win percentages are .732 and .714

(04-06-2021 12:17 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(04-06-2021 12:10 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  Just to confirm, that OP is listed top to bottom best to worst? Have I got that right?

And if so, which column is the decider of order?

Yes, at least when I skimmed it that's what I saw.

It's by conference wins, which is the first column listed.

Correct, posted by in conference record. The only teams that move in the placement from conference record to total season record is Cincinnati & Navy trading the 3 & 4 spots.