(04-09-2021 06:51 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-09-2021 06:37 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-09-2021 06:24 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-09-2021 06:23 PM)memphisike Wrote:  Iowa state

Michael Bolton gonna steal more minutes from Davion?

So now every potential transfer sucks, regardless of what school they played at, correct?

No not at all.

Not sure how you gleaned that.

I know how to read. Just in case though, what is your point?

(04-08-2021 12:32 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 12:07 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.

Interesting that you and Penny have already evaluated both and have decided their respective roles for a team that still doesn't have a set roster, for a season that is still 7 months away.

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Teague played 35 minutes and averaged 16.7 points at UNC Asheville, but would only be allowed to average 5 points per game? Was he upset when Teague played 33 minutes and averaged 13.9 and 15.7 points at Baylor?

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Flagler played 31 minutes and averaged 15.9 points at Presbyterian but would only be allowed to average 4 points at Baylor? Was he upset that Flagler averaged 9.1 points in 23 minutes? Did you tell Scott Drew that Flagler wouldn't be allowed to increase his field goal percentage, three point percentage and free throw percentage at Baylor?

Penny needs to know these things before you both decide.

So, as of now, are you saying Warren is going to start? Clearly, Memphis has:

Lomax
Les
Earl
Landers
Jayden

at the 1/2/3 right now.

Lest assume (and fairly) that those above (and Warren) will be the only folks on the roster at the 1/2/3.

If we assume ALo will come back at his 20 minutes a game and Les and Landers each come back at 26 and 27 minutes and Jayden gets his usual 5 minutes a half, then we're at 83 minutes.

So there are 37 minutes to share for Warren and Earl.

One is a 6'6 top 40 recruit who started as a frosh, and scored double figures in five of his first seven games. He's regarded as a possible 1st round draft talent.

The other is a 6'6 guy who isn't on any draft boards and hasn't performed against any high level competition.

You think they will split the 37 minutes evenly? You think Les, ALo, or Landers will LOSE minutes? You think Penny won't use Jayden?

I would guess, barring injury, it would be entirely reasonable to slot Earl at 25 minutes a game at least. I could also see Les and Landers getting closer to 28-30 mpg with Alex at 20-22. Jayden may lose a couple to be around 6-8 mpg.

That comes to 111 minutes.

There are only 120 to go around.

Do the math.

(And this doesn't even include what will be out there if J. Lawson comes in).

If Davion is competent there will be many lineups with Earl or Q at the 4.

(04-08-2021 12:32 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 12:07 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.

Interesting that you and Penny have already evaluated both and have decided their respective roles for a team that still doesn't have a set roster, for a season that is still 7 months away.

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Teague played 35 minutes and averaged 16.7 points at UNC Asheville, but would only be allowed to average 5 points per game? Was he upset when Teague played 33 minutes and averaged 13.9 and 15.7 points at Baylor?

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Flagler played 31 minutes and averaged 15.9 points at Presbyterian but would only be allowed to average 4 points at Baylor? Was he upset that Flagler averaged 9.1 points in 23 minutes? Did you tell Scott Drew that Flagler wouldn't be allowed to increase his field goal percentage, three point percentage and free throw percentage at Baylor?

Penny needs to know these things before you both decide.

So, as of now, are you saying Warren is going to start? Clearly, Memphis has:

Lomax
Les
Earl
Landers
Jayden

at the 1/2/3 right now.

Lest assume (and fairly) that those above (and Warren) will be the only folks on the roster at the 1/2/3.

If we assume ALo will come back at his 20 minutes a game and Les and Landers each come back at 26 and 27 minutes and Jayden gets his usual 5 minutes a half, then we're at 83 minutes.

So there are 37 minutes to share for Warren and Earl.

One is a 6'6 top 40 recruit who started as a frosh, and scored double figures in five of his first seven games. He's regarded as a possible 1st round draft talent.

The other is a 6'6 guy who isn't on any draft boards and hasn't performed against any high level competition.

You think they will split the 37 minutes evenly? You think Les, ALo, or Landers will LOSE minutes? You think Penny won't use Jayden?

I would guess, barring injury, it would be entirely reasonable to slot Earl at 25 minutes a game at least. I could also see Les and Landers getting closer to 28-30 mpg with Alex at 20-22. Jayden may lose a couple to be around 6-8 mpg.

That comes to 111 minutes.

There are only 120 to go around.

Do the math.

(And this doesn't even include what will be out there if J. Lawson comes in).

What about Minott?

(04-09-2021 06:22 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-09-2021 05:17 PM)stratecashomie Wrote:  Can look at Benjamin Stanley as a good example of how this may play out

Big time player for howard in 2019-2020, transferred to Xavier for 2020-2021 and played in 5 games after getting cleared by the ncaa before injuring his ACL

Went from averaging 22pts and 6rbs to 6pts and 2rbs

They are a dime a dozen going from low major to high major.

Dude here chose Duke and averaged 1.1 ppg there.

And now he's moved on.

And now he's a Don.

Quote:Nice backup. Good for about 8 and 3.

No pidgeonholing?

Benjamin Stanley? Is that a joke? He scored 24 points in 38 minutes and tore his ACL in the 8th minute of his 4th game.

You give examples one way as if any kind of production is an outlier. Two out of Baylor's 5 starters were from UNC Asheville and Presbyterian.

USC went to the Elite 8 with THREE starters who came in from Santa Clara, Utah Valley State and Rice.

Eaddy scored 9.1 ppg at Santa Clara and went for 13.1 at USC. He was ranked #44 in the portal.

White scored 14.5 points at Utah Valley State, only scored 7.6 per game at USC, BUT, he went down from 30 minutes to 20 minutes, raised his field goal and 3 point shooting percentages from 41.8/22.4% to 49.1/36.4%. White was #33 in the portal.

Peterson scored 11.1 points per game at Rice and scored 9.8 points at USC.

Jones was Loserville's leading scorer at 16.8 points per game after scoring 20 per game at Radford.

Ivanaskas went from 13.1 points at Colgate to 6.3 points at Cincinnati, but played 8 minutes less per game.

Nate Johnson scored 13.5 points at Gardner Webb, then 11.4 points at Xavier. He was the 46th ranked transfer in the portal.

Justin Mutts scored 13.5 points at Delaware and 11.9 points at Virginia Tech. He was #43 in the portal.

Andrew Garcia scored 13.4 points in 30.6 minutes per game at Stony Brook. He scored 8.7 points in 17 minutes at Georgia. He was #39 in the portal.

Ian Dubose played 33.2 minutes and scored 19 points at Houston Baptist. He played 8 less minutes per game, and scored 10.9 points at Wake Forest, while raising his field goal and 3 point shooting percentages. He was #37 in the portal.

Rich Kelly scored 16.7 points per game at Quinnipiac. He scored 11 points per game playing 9 less minutes per game at Boston College, while all of his shooting percentages stayed at around the same level.

But by all means keep bringing up Patrick Tape over and over. What is this, your 3rd or 4th time referencing him?

Quote:For every Dillon Brooks or Jordan Clarkson, you get 10 Tiny Gallons, Josh Selbys, Russ Smiths, or Dakari Johnsons.

I've given 14 examples. There are lots more, but I'm bored now. Let me know when you get close to 140 on your side, and I'll be happy to take 5 minutes out of my day to come up with 10 more.

If you want to have an intellectually honest discussion about the possibility, quit bringing up one-off anecdotes on both sides. Do the deeper dive. Look at guys who were top 20 scorers in the country, and see what they did when moving up in college competition. NBA draft picks are meaningless. So are stories about Baylor transfers.

I attempted this with a look at 12 transfers from last year in another thread. It showed a couple who held up pretty well, one-third who saw shooting improve, and the rest dropped considerably. There's another partial list in post #37 in this thread. But I don't think either of us have gone back and looked at guys who were truly high level scorers who then transferred up.

(04-12-2021 11:27 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  If you want to have an intellectually honest discussion about the possibility, quit bringing up one-off anecdotes on both sides. Do the deeper dive. Look at guys who were top 20 scorers in the country, and see what they did when moving up in college competition. NBA draft picks are meaningless. So are stories about Baylor transfers.

I attempted this with a look at 12 transfers from last year in another thread. It showed a couple who held up pretty well, one-third who saw shooting improve, and the rest dropped considerably. There's another partial list in post #37 in this thread. But I don't think either of us have gone back and looked at guys who were truly high level scorers who then transferred up.

Saluki and I mostly agree on this stuff, but he is exaggerating on the negative side and he isn't considering context. Hampton averaging 10 and 3 can be a great player for us (LQ was at 9.5 and 2), whereas Kareem Brewton was not great at 9.1 and 2.4. Points per game as raw data is useless. You have to factor in minutes played, shooting percentages, and what is needed by the team the transfer goes to. Hampton for sure won't be a failure if he shoots efficiently and plays decent defense.

DJ, LQ, Lomax and Cisse weren't role players even though none of them averaged 10 points per game.

There are a ton of examples on either side, which is my point.

(04-12-2021 11:27 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  If you want to have an intellectually honest discussion about the possibility, quit bringing up one-off anecdotes on both sides. Do the deeper dive. Look at guys who were top 20 scorers in the country, and see what they did when moving up in college competition. NBA draft picks are meaningless. So are stories about Baylor transfers.

I attempted this with a look at 12 transfers from last year in another thread. It showed a couple who held up pretty well, one-third who saw shooting improve, and the rest dropped considerably. There's another partial list in post #37 in this thread. But I don't think either of us have gone back and looked at guys who were truly high level scorers who then transferred up.

Among the 50 leading scorers among mid majors in 2019 that transferred to high majors or the NBA...

6 Mike Smith
Columbia to Michigan; 5th leading scorer. Minutes 37.7 to 30. Scoring from 22.8 to 9.0. shooting percentages the same, assists up. A starter at Michigan, by all measures a great success.

9 Ben Stanley
Hampton to Xavier. A success before getting hurt.

18 Nate Darling
Delaware to Charlotte in the NBA (3.3 minutes, 1.2 points in 5 games)

19 Nathan Knight
William & Mary to the Atlanta Hawks (averages 3.7 points per game in 23 games)

20 Terrell Brown Jr.
Seattle to Arizona; 6th leading scorer. Minutes 36.0 to 25.7. Points from 20.7 to 7.3. Shooting percentages about the same, a starter at Arizona

28 Carlik Jones
Radford to Loserville; their leading scorer. Loserville's most minutes at 37.5 per game, 16.8 points, down from 20.8 at Radford. Shooting percentages down.

32 Terrell Gomez
Cal State Northridge to San Diego State; 3rd leading scorer. Minutes from 37.1 to 24.4. Scoring from 19.8 to 8.6. Shooting percentages almost the same. A classic case of 50% less scoring, but a very good player.

39 Sam Merrill
Utah State to the Milwaukee Bucks. Averages 3.3 points per game.

41 Sam Sessions
Binghampton to Penn State. 5th leading scorer. Minutes down from 35.7 to 20.7. Scoring from 19.4 to 8.2. Shooting down a bit across the board

44 Parker Stewart
Pitt to UTM (moved down). Minutes up from 26.2 to 36.2. Scoring up from 9.1 - 19.2. Shot slightly less efficiently, but assists way up.

So it's only 1 season, but that is the top 50 scorers from mid majors that moved up in caliber. The exception is Stewart, but he is useful because he didn't all of a sudden become much more efficient at UTM, even though he had a year more experience.

So the bottom line out of the 8 players from 2020...
- 3 are on NBA rosters
- All 5 played more than 20 minutes per game for their new team
- All 5 were in the top 6 in scoring for their new team (1,3,5,5,6)

Brown who was the 6th leading scorer at Arizona, was 2nd on the team in assists, 4th in 3 point field goal shooting and had an assist to turnover ratio of 3.9/1.

The 9th is Ben Stanley, who averaged 6 points per game, but scored 24 points in 38 minutes.

So in the end, if you are getting a high scoring transfer from a mid major going to a high major, you are more than likely getting a starter who will be in your top 5 scorers. I would have to look back to 2019 to see what the trend is.

My two points in this discussion with Saluki (who I usually agree with) is that he is hugely exaggerating the ratio of failures to successes, and he isn't taking consideration that a drop in production with a drop in minutes can still be very good, when you are more efficient with a new team. A related example in a way is Nolley. He scored less but improved his shooting across the board. He was a better player with less of a workload here, than he was at Virginia Tech.

Based on what we know, I don't expect to have any issue with Warren coming in and being a problem because he isn't a volume shooter, and I for sure don't expect him to stink it up like Christian Kessee or Patrick Tape.

The data suggests that he will line up right in range with what Boogie, DJ and LQ did this season. If he does that, he will be a real asset.

(04-12-2021 11:37 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-12-2021 11:27 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  If you want to have an intellectually honest discussion about the possibility, quit bringing up one-off anecdotes on both sides. Do the deeper dive. Look at guys who were top 20 scorers in the country, and see what they did when moving up in college competition. NBA draft picks are meaningless. So are stories about Baylor transfers.

I attempted this with a look at 12 transfers from last year in another thread. It showed a couple who held up pretty well, one-third who saw shooting improve, and the rest dropped considerably. There's another partial list in post #37 in this thread. But I don't think either of us have gone back and looked at guys who were truly high level scorers who then transferred up.

Saluki and I mostly agree on this stuff, but he is exaggerating on the negative side and he isn't considering context. Hampton averaging 10 and 3 can be a great player for us (LQ was at 9.5 and 2), whereas Kareem Brewton was not great at 9.1 and 2.4. Points per game as raw data is useless. You have to factor in minutes played, shooting percentages, and what is needed by the team the transfer goes to. Hampton for sure won't be a failure if he shoots efficiently and plays decent defense.

DJ, LQ, Lomax and Cisse weren't role players even though none of them averaged 10 points per game.

There are a ton of examples on either side, which is my point.

So all of this back and forth and blocks of text and research and stat analysis was because:

Saluki thought he would score 8 and 3

and

You felt the need to prove he would score 10 and 3.

Two freaking point difference.

You cant make this stuff up.

(04-12-2021 02:43 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(04-12-2021 11:37 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-12-2021 11:27 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  If you want to have an intellectually honest discussion about the possibility, quit bringing up one-off anecdotes on both sides. Do the deeper dive. Look at guys who were top 20 scorers in the country, and see what they did when moving up in college competition. NBA draft picks are meaningless. So are stories about Baylor transfers.

I attempted this with a look at 12 transfers from last year in another thread. It showed a couple who held up pretty well, one-third who saw shooting improve, and the rest dropped considerably. There's another partial list in post #37 in this thread. But I don't think either of us have gone back and looked at guys who were truly high level scorers who then transferred up.

Saluki and I mostly agree on this stuff, but he is exaggerating on the negative side and he isn't considering context. Hampton averaging 10 and 3 can be a great player for us (LQ was at 9.5 and 2), whereas Kareem Brewton was not great at 9.1 and 2.4. Points per game as raw data is useless. You have to factor in minutes played, shooting percentages, and what is needed by the team the transfer goes to. Hampton for sure won't be a failure if he shoots efficiently and plays decent defense.

DJ, LQ, Lomax and Cisse weren't role players even though none of them averaged 10 points per game.

There are a ton of examples on either side, which is my point.

So all of this back and forth and blocks of text and research and stat analysis was because:

Saluki thought he would score 8 and 3

and

You felt the need to prove he would score 10 and 3.

Two freaking point difference.

You cant make this stuff up.

I can't say that I'm shocked at your interpretation. Again, ALL of the top 50 scorers in the NCAA that transferred from mid major to high major schools played at least 20 minutes per game, ALL were in the top 6 on their team in scoring. All played 20 minutes or more, all were in the top 6 in minutes, and 3 of them ended up on NBA rosters.

Quote:Dude will likely be a reserve, asked to come in a do some stuff.

The data says the opposite of this. The data says he will play at least 20 minutes and will be one of the top 5 scorers on our team. The data says that 3 in his peer group ended up on NBA rosters.

Quote:It just more falls to the suckas who are out here thinking that he's gonna straight up replace Boogie and go for 14 and 6 next year.

I don't know who he is talking about. We didn't have a single player average 14 points, or 6 assists per game, and only Cisse averaged over 6 rebounds per game. I expect him to almost mirror Boogie's production this year, and the data supports that. I don't think even a single person has said he will average 14 points and 6 whatever Saluki was referring to. Literally nobody.

Quote:I was also the person getting laughed at for saying Damien Wilson would be a 3 and 2 guy and that Shaq would be 6 and 4. I hit Clergeot and Nick Marshall's numbers when people were expecting them to be key players.

Quote:or how Damien Wilson is going to be an immediate impact player.

Maybe 5 posters out of a couple of hundred thought that Wilson, Clergeot and Marshall would be impact players.

Hyperbole then and hyperbole now.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qiYlA8BDJv...e=youtu.be

(04-15-2021 12:43 PM)GOT BUCKETS Wrote:  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qiYlA8BDJv...e=youtu.be

I had a really hard time understanding all of the words that were coming out of SchuZ's mouth... but I could hear Davion Warren just fine.

(04-15-2021 12:43 PM)GOT BUCKETS Wrote:  

FIFU

He's gone before he ever got here... Decommited!

(04-26-2021 09:47 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  He's gone before he ever got here... Decommited!

I told folks.


Dude knows he falls further down the food chain each new recruit Memphis gets.

A guy playing 30 minutes a game and getting to chuck it at will rarely wants to come to a place to play 10 minutes a game and get limited use...even if it means going from the 320th best team in D1 to a Top 20 one.

If you’re good enough for pro ball then the increased competition is great... far more time is spent practicing against legitimate talent than playing in games.

Going 11 for 34 and putting up 28 points per game in a losing effort is not going to get a guy a better look by NBA scouts.

(04-26-2021 09:47 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  He's gone before he ever got here... Decommited!

Now he has decommitted from his decommitment... but leaving all options open for future decommitments lol

(04-26-2021 09:57 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  If you’re good enough for pro ball then the increased competition is great... far more time is spent practicing against legitimate talent than playing in games.

Going 11 for 34 and putting up 28 points per game in a losing effort is not going to get a guy a better look by NBA scouts.

Yeah, but it probably "looks" better to be the big fish for a garbage team where the spotlight is on you rather than getting 12 mpg and being a solid contributor.

The way it would have stood (at the 1/2/3):

Lomax
Les
Warren
J. Lawson
John Camden
Nolley
Timberlake
Jayden

There are 120 minutes for all those guys. Put 25, 25, and 25 on Nolley, Timberlake, and Les. Put 20 an Alo. Put 8 for Jayden. 10 for J. Lawson.

That's 113 minutes right there including 0 for Camden. And that is being cautious with Nolley, Timberlake, and Les. Any of them could be 28-30 mpg guys.



at the 4/5
Chandler
Malco
Sam
Minott
Deandre

You have 80 minutes.
Deandre gets 25-30. Malco gets 15-20. Chandler gets 15. If Minott is as skilled as hoped, there's no reason he won't get 15+ mpg. Sam probably good for 10.

Obviously, if Moussa comes back that's 25 minutes there and maybe Malco leaves.

If he signed, then that would be another transfer. Would he have to sit out a year unless he gets a waiver? Or is this a year in which they can transfer as many times as they want without having to sit?

(04-26-2021 10:14 AM)Irse Wrote:  If he signed, then that would be another transfer. Would he have to sit out a year unless he gets a waiver? Or is this a year in which they can transfer as many times as they want without having to sit?

You can only sign a LOI once.