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Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
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uskjtc02 Away
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Post: #21
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 08:54 AM)DallasTiger Wrote:  I have a new outlook now. 1) Baylor had 6 transfers on its roster and they did pretty well this year. It would seem it is not so much about who leaves but about who you sign as a replacement and how you manage your roster. Kind of like managing an NBA roster, which Penny should understand. 2) The NFL and Major League baseball teams sign new players from other teams. Fans of those teams are used to seeing changes in personnel every year and they survive and many times...do much better with an improved roster. 3) I am getting more into the ONCE A TIGER ALWAYS A TIGER attitude of the Auburn fans.

This is true. The game is changing. You won’t see many of the major colleges developing many players anymore. They will just dip into the transfer market every year. Just like free agency.
04-07-2021 09:19 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
Recruiting the transfer portal may have surpassed in importance recruiting HS kids.
04-07-2021 09:39 AM
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Post: #23
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 09:14 AM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 08:54 AM)DallasTiger Wrote:  I have a new outlook now. 1) Baylor had 6 transfers on its roster and they did pretty well this year. It would seem it is not so much about who leaves but about who you sign as a replacement and how you manage your roster. Kind of like managing an NBA roster, which Penny should understand. 2) The NFL and Major League baseball teams sign new players from other teams. Fans of those teams are used to seeing changes in personnel every year and they survive and many times...do much better with an improved roster. 3) I am getting more into the ONCE A TIGER ALWAYS A TIGER attitude of the Auburn fans.

including two impactful transfers who came from the Big South, same as Davion Warren

Except those guys came from relatively talented schools...both schools were top 180 in Kenpom and played post season basketball.

The Hampton team this year was the 30th worst team in college basketball. 327 in KP.

Again, the guy will likely be a nice part of the rotation. But expecting him to play to the level of a Teague or Flagler is misguided.
04-07-2021 10:13 AM
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Post: #24
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 10:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 09:14 AM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 08:54 AM)DallasTiger Wrote:  I have a new outlook now. 1) Baylor had 6 transfers on its roster and they did pretty well this year. It would seem it is not so much about who leaves but about who you sign as a replacement and how you manage your roster. Kind of like managing an NBA roster, which Penny should understand. 2) The NFL and Major League baseball teams sign new players from other teams. Fans of those teams are used to seeing changes in personnel every year and they survive and many times...do much better with an improved roster. 3) I am getting more into the ONCE A TIGER ALWAYS A TIGER attitude of the Auburn fans.

including two impactful transfers who came from the Big South, same as Davion Warren

Except those guys came from relatively talented schools...both schools were top 180 in Kenpom and played post season basketball.

The Hampton team this year was the 30th worst team in college basketball. 327 in KP.

Again, the guy will likely be a nice part of the rotation. But expecting him to play to the level of a Teague or Flagler is misguided.

I think it speaks to the ability to be able to adjust to higher level of competition more than anything.
Some may be worried that he can't replicate his success here.

I don't worry about it b/c 21 per game anywhere means you can play. Led conference in steals. He won't do the same numbers wise here in minutes or points but he can play clearly and contribute.
04-07-2021 10:29 AM
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Post: #25
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
I think he's one of those players that plays better when more talented players are around him. He's got the motor, the drive and the mindset.
04-07-2021 10:57 AM
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Post: #26
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 09:39 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Recruiting the transfer portal may have surpassed in importance recruiting HS kids.

Yep
04-07-2021 10:58 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 09:14 AM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 08:54 AM)DallasTiger Wrote:  I have a new outlook now. 1) Baylor had 6 transfers on its roster and they did pretty well this year. It would seem it is not so much about who leaves but about who you sign as a replacement and how you manage your roster. Kind of like managing an NBA roster, which Penny should understand. 2) The NFL and Major League baseball teams sign new players from other teams. Fans of those teams are used to seeing changes in personnel every year and they survive and many times...do much better with an improved roster. 3) I am getting more into the ONCE A TIGER ALWAYS A TIGER attitude of the Auburn fans.

including two impactful transfers who came from the Big South, same as Davion Warren

I don't even want to hear any of this 6 and 3 nonsense as if it is etched in stone.
04-07-2021 04:07 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 10:57 AM)snowtiger Wrote:  I think he's one of those players that plays better when more talented players are around him. He's got the motor, the drive and the mindset.

I agree. I think this young man will surprise those in our fan base.
04-07-2021 04:12 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 04:12 PM)Hoots Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 10:57 AM)snowtiger Wrote:  I think he's one of those players that plays better when more talented players are around him. He's got the motor, the drive and the mindset.

I agree. I think this young man will surprise those in our fan base.

Just curious...how much film have either of you watched on him?
04-07-2021 04:15 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 10:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 09:14 AM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 08:54 AM)DallasTiger Wrote:  I have a new outlook now. 1) Baylor had 6 transfers on its roster and they did pretty well this year. It would seem it is not so much about who leaves but about who you sign as a replacement and how you manage your roster. Kind of like managing an NBA roster, which Penny should understand. 2) The NFL and Major League baseball teams sign new players from other teams. Fans of those teams are used to seeing changes in personnel every year and they survive and many times...do much better with an improved roster. 3) I am getting more into the ONCE A TIGER ALWAYS A TIGER attitude of the Auburn fans.

including two impactful transfers who came from the Big South, same as Davion Warren

Except those guys came from relatively talented schools...both schools were top 180 in Kenpom and played post season basketball.

The Hampton team this year was the 30th worst team in college basketball. 327 in KP.

Again, the guy will likely be a nice part of the rotation. But expecting him to play to the level of a Teague or Flagler is misguided.

If anything, it is misguided to think that he will average 6 points and 3 rebounds.

Flagler shot 43.3% from the field, 38.2% from outside, and 83.5% from the stripe at Presbyterian. He shot 45.4%, 43.4%, 87.2% at national championship winning Baylor. Teague averaged 16.7 and shot 41.8%, 42.5%, 86.6% his last year at UNC Asheville. He went for 13.9 and shot 40.0%, 35.5%, 84.8 at Baylor his first full season there.

Quote:Except those guys came from relatively talented schools.

Presbyterian and UNC Asheville? That's what you are trying to sell?
04-07-2021 05:37 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 05:37 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 10:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 09:14 AM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 08:54 AM)DallasTiger Wrote:  I have a new outlook now. 1) Baylor had 6 transfers on its roster and they did pretty well this year. It would seem it is not so much about who leaves but about who you sign as a replacement and how you manage your roster. Kind of like managing an NBA roster, which Penny should understand. 2) The NFL and Major League baseball teams sign new players from other teams. Fans of those teams are used to seeing changes in personnel every year and they survive and many times...do much better with an improved roster. 3) I am getting more into the ONCE A TIGER ALWAYS A TIGER attitude of the Auburn fans.

including two impactful transfers who came from the Big South, same as Davion Warren

Except those guys came from relatively talented schools...both schools were top 180 in Kenpom and played post season basketball.

The Hampton team this year was the 30th worst team in college basketball. 327 in KP.

Again, the guy will likely be a nice part of the rotation. But expecting him to play to the level of a Teague or Flagler is misguided.

If anything, it is misguided to think that he will average 6 points and 3 rebounds.

Flagler shot 43.3% from the field, 38.2% from outside, and 83.5% from the stripe at Presbyterian. He shot 45.4%, 43.4%, 87.2% at national championship winning Baylor. Teague averaged 16.7 and shot 41.8%, 42.5%, 86.6% his last year at UNC Asheville. He went for 13.9 and shot 40.0%, 35.5%, 84.8 at Baylor his first full season there.

Quote:Except those guys came from relatively talented schools.

Presbyterian and UNC Asheville? That's what you are trying to sell?

That 6 and 3 was merely my prediction. We'll see who else Penny brings in (hopefully we don't lose anyone else) and how those minutes are split up. If both Lawsons come and Penny signs another good guard, minutes may be a little scarce, depending how good the froshs are.
04-07-2021 06:11 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 05:37 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 10:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 09:14 AM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 08:54 AM)DallasTiger Wrote:  I have a new outlook now. 1) Baylor had 6 transfers on its roster and they did pretty well this year. It would seem it is not so much about who leaves but about who you sign as a replacement and how you manage your roster. Kind of like managing an NBA roster, which Penny should understand. 2) The NFL and Major League baseball teams sign new players from other teams. Fans of those teams are used to seeing changes in personnel every year and they survive and many times...do much better with an improved roster. 3) I am getting more into the ONCE A TIGER ALWAYS A TIGER attitude of the Auburn fans.

including two impactful transfers who came from the Big South, same as Davion Warren

Except those guys came from relatively talented schools...both schools were top 180 in Kenpom and played post season basketball.

The Hampton team this year was the 30th worst team in college basketball. 327 in KP.

Again, the guy will likely be a nice part of the rotation. But expecting him to play to the level of a Teague or Flagler is misguided.

If anything, it is misguided to think that he will average 6 points and 3 rebounds.

Flagler shot 43.3% from the field, 38.2% from outside, and 83.5% from the stripe at Presbyterian. He shot 45.4%, 43.4%, 87.2% at national championship winning Baylor. Teague averaged 16.7 and shot 41.8%, 42.5%, 86.6% his last year at UNC Asheville. He went for 13.9 and shot 40.0%, 35.5%, 84.8 at Baylor his first full season there.

Quote:Except those guys came from relatively talented schools.

Presbyterian and UNC Asheville? That's what you are trying to sell?

Both Pres and Ashville went to the postseason and were top 180 in Kenpom.

Hampton was the 30th worst team in D1.

The Baylor guys were putting up good numbers on a good Big South teams.

The Hampton team was god awful.

In 2018, Tyreke was the leading scorer for the 22-60 Grizzlies at 19 ppg. You think if he went to a playoff level team he would have come close to that? Of course not.

Also, Teague has two solid years at Ashville, THEN had a redshirt year to get into the system.

Flagler went from a full time starter to pure reserve at Baylor and was used to fill out a specific role...which is essentially what I am saying.

Dude will likely be a reserve, asked to come in a do some stuff.
04-07-2021 09:33 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
Frankly, I've been pretty damn good at forecasting performances of players over the past few years. Lord knows my JUCO to Memphis have been pretty spot on. And I would see Hampton as slightly better than one of the better JUCO teams.

Also, again, it's important to recognize Hampton essentially only played round Robin in the Big South and went against one of the worst OOC (albeit just 5 games) slates in D1.
04-07-2021 09:37 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 09:33 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 05:37 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 10:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 09:14 AM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 08:54 AM)DallasTiger Wrote:  I have a new outlook now. 1) Baylor had 6 transfers on its roster and they did pretty well this year. It would seem it is not so much about who leaves but about who you sign as a replacement and how you manage your roster. Kind of like managing an NBA roster, which Penny should understand. 2) The NFL and Major League baseball teams sign new players from other teams. Fans of those teams are used to seeing changes in personnel every year and they survive and many times...do much better with an improved roster. 3) I am getting more into the ONCE A TIGER ALWAYS A TIGER attitude of the Auburn fans.

including two impactful transfers who came from the Big South, same as Davion Warren

Except those guys came from relatively talented schools...both schools were top 180 in Kenpom and played post season basketball.

The Hampton team this year was the 30th worst team in college basketball. 327 in KP.

Again, the guy will likely be a nice part of the rotation. But expecting him to play to the level of a Teague or Flagler is misguided.

If anything, it is misguided to think that he will average 6 points and 3 rebounds.

Flagler shot 43.3% from the field, 38.2% from outside, and 83.5% from the stripe at Presbyterian. He shot 45.4%, 43.4%, 87.2% at national championship winning Baylor. Teague averaged 16.7 and shot 41.8%, 42.5%, 86.6% his last year at UNC Asheville. He went for 13.9 and shot 40.0%, 35.5%, 84.8 at Baylor his first full season there.

Quote:Except those guys came from relatively talented schools.

Presbyterian and UNC Asheville? That's what you are trying to sell?

Both Pres and Ashville went to the postseason and were top 180 in Kenpom.

Hampton was the 30th worst team in D1.

The Baylor guys were putting up good numbers on a good Big South teams.

The Hampton team was god awful.

In 2018, Tyreke was the leading scorer for the 22-60 Grizzlies at 19 ppg. You think if he went to a playoff level team he would have come close to that? Of course not.

Also, Teague has two solid years at Ashville, THEN had a redshirt year to get into the system.

Flagler went from a full time starter to pure reserve at Baylor and was used to fill out a specific role...which is essentially what I am saying.

Dude will likely be a reserve, asked to come in a do some stuff.

Nobody is expecting him to duplicate his scoring numbers, but it isn't unreasonable to think he can duplicate or even improve his shooting percentages. One thing that is not open to dispute, is that he is going to get much better quality shots at Memphis. He won't be the focal point and there will be other good players to draw attention away from him.

Quote:In 2018, Tyreke was the leading scorer for the 22-60 Grizzlies at 19 ppg. You think if he went to a playoff level team he would have come close to that? Of course not.

IF Tyreke played for Golden State, he wouldn't have scored as many points, but he 100% would have been getting much easier shots. He was the focal point of the offense at Memphis. He would have had Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green drawing defenders away from him. He would have scored less points, but he probably would have been much more efficient.

Nobody is expecting Warren to score 20 points per game; but nobody is expecting him to score 6 points per game. If he shoots around the same percentages (which he likely will), he is going to get playing time and he is going to put up decent numbers.

He shot better percentages at Hampton in 2020; when he was the 3rd leading scorer. Nobody should be surprised to see the same thing happen here.
04-07-2021 11:48 PM
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salukiblue Online
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Post: #35
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.
04-08-2021 10:51 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-07-2021 09:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Frankly, I've been pretty damn good at forecasting performances of players over the past few years. Lord knows my JUCO to Memphis have been pretty spot on. And I would see Hampton as slightly better than one of the better JUCO teams.

Also, again, it's important to recognize Hampton essentially only played round Robin in the Big South and went against one of the worst OOC (albeit just 5 games) slates in D1.

You are certainly the self-proclaimed king of recruit predictions. And you were probably closer than most on the jucos of the Tubby era. I'm terrible at it - but I recognize the challenges and that a "50% of their prior year stats" rule leads to wide variation.

IIRC you were not exactly spot-on. Seems you hit with the lowball on Rivers, Brewton, and Thornton. But you missed on Davenport and Parks, who over-performed your predictions.

It's not exact science. All these guys have ability. And it's impossible to predict their work ethic, desire, and heart until we get to know them.
04-08-2021 10:52 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-08-2021 10:52 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(04-07-2021 09:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Frankly, I've been pretty damn good at forecasting performances of players over the past few years. Lord knows my JUCO to Memphis have been pretty spot on. And I would see Hampton as slightly better than one of the better JUCO teams.

Also, again, it's important to recognize Hampton essentially only played round Robin in the Big South and went against one of the worst OOC (albeit just 5 games) slates in D1.

You are certainly the self-proclaimed king of recruit predictions. And you were probably closer than most on the jucos of the Tubby era. I'm terrible at it - but I recognize the challenges and that a "50% of their prior year stats" rule leads to wide variation.

IIRC you were not exactly spot-on. Seems you hit with the lowball on Rivers, Brewton, and Thornton. But you missed on Davenport and Parks, who over-performed your predictions.

It's not exact science. All these guys have ability. And it's impossible to predict their work ethic, desire, and heart until we get to know them.

I was pretty damn close overall. I was also the person getting laughed at for saying Damien Wilson would be a 3 and 2 guy and that Shaq would be 6 and 4. I hit Clergeot and Nick Marshall's numbers when people were expecting them to be key players.

It's not really rocket science...it's mostly historical comparisons. BUT...people try to use hope and fandom over precedent.

If folks take the time to look at low major transfers to good D1 programs, they will see the vast majority hit 30-50% of what they did at the low school. You then secondly look at the quality of the low major school and the quality of the high major program to see which side of that number is more likely.

If you have an xfer coming from a NIT team or first four going to a Tulsa or Wake Forest, chances are that person will be more of the 50% or maybe higher, while someone leaving William and Mary or Charleston Southern to UNC will be closer to the 30% range.

Obviously, too, if you have a sit out redshirt guy, that has to be taken into account for comparison purposes.

Here are "impact transfers" from 2019.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/25/un...-transfers

10) TJ Holyfield (SFA-TTech): 12.9 ppg, 41% 3pt ------> 8.7 ppg 24% 3pt
9) Anthony Mathis (NMSU-Oregon) 14 ppg, 42% 3pt----> 8 pgg 42%
8) Justin Pierce (Wm&Mary-UNC) 15/9/4----> 6/5/1
7) Lamarr Kimble (st. Joe-Louise) 16/4/3----->5/1/3

6) Shakur Juiston (UNLV-Oregon) 11 ppg 9 rebs ------> 8 ppg 7 rpg
5) Nate Sestina (Bucknell-Uky) 16 ppg 9 rebs----> 7 ppg 5 rebs (0.9 3pt made per game)
4) Christian Keeling (Char So.-UNC) 19/7/3----> 4/3/1

3) Chris Clarke (Va Tech-TTech) 8/6/3---6/8/6
2) Admon Gilder (TA&M-Zags) 13/4/3--->11/4/2
1) Blackshear (Va Tech-UF) 15 and 8 ---> 15 and 9

The low major guys had pretty big dropoffs.

Same for this list:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket...20-2020-21

Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Feagin, Cumberland, Irvine, Hazzard, Yuboah, and Andree also saw huge declines in productivity. All more than 50%.
04-08-2021 11:13 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-08-2021 10:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.

He essentially replaces Baugh who was averaging 3.4 ppg in 20 mpg. Might not be as good a defender but he can certainly average more that 3 points in 20 minutes.
04-08-2021 11:26 AM
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RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
He's gonna play his heart out for Penny and Memphis! Welcome Davion Warren!
04-08-2021 11:33 AM
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Post: #40
RE: Hampton Transfer Davion Warren Commits To Memphis MBB
(04-08-2021 11:26 AM)mairving Wrote:  
(04-08-2021 10:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.

He essentially replaces Baugh who was averaging 3.4 ppg in 20 mpg. Might not be as good a defender but he can certainly average more that 3 points in 20 minutes.

Probably so. And I have ZERO problems with that.

It just more falls to the suckas who are out here thinking that he's gonna straight up replace Boogie and go for 14 and 6 next year.

THEN...when he doesn't, these fools will be all over him.

Hell, I was just looking back at a thread about expectations for the 2018-19 season and there were folks who were literally arguing with me that incoming frosh Lomax was going to get more minutes a game than rising senior Jeremiah Martin.


And looking back at how Usman Haruna was going to be a surprise get (dude scored 53 points in two seasons) or that I shouldn't poo-poo Tubby recruiting Jordan Hardwick (54 points in three seasons at Coppin State) or how Damien Wilson is going to be an immediate impact player.

It's wash, risne, repeat.

Just have reasonable expectations.
04-08-2021 11:46 AM
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