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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #1
The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
https://csnbbs.com/thread-920059.html

The thread above discusses an ESPN article about this. If this comes to be, what four schools would the Big 12 raid, what happens to Notre Dame, and who does the ACC add?

Here is my stab at it:

I believe that Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, BC, NC State, and UNC will remain for sure leaving the other 8 schools (Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, Pitt, VaTech, Geogia Tech, Louisville, FSU) as the potential expansion candidates.

Pitt: I believe they ultimately will not have the brand required.

Notre Dame: They will remain independent and stay in the ACC for Olympic sports.

Louisville: I believe they ultimately will not have the brand required.

VaTech: I believe they are left out for Georgia Tech due to demographics.

The four schools the Big 12 ultimately adds will be Clemson, Miami, FSU, and Georgia Tech.

Due to the football schools leaving, the remaining 10+Notre Dame select UConn and Cincy to bring the conference to 12 in football and 13 in Olympic sports.

The AAC stays pat at 10 and so does the Big East.

What say you?
04-04-2021 09:43 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #2
RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
This scenario sounds suspiciously like an attempt to direct the reader to find a P5 home for UConn. I've asked this before, with no good answer. Why would a conference willingly try to go to 14 teams - the worst possible even number for a conference schedule? Why not go to 12 or 16 instead?
04-04-2021 11:46 AM
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CitrusUCF Offline
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
And for what reason do Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Georgia Tech want to align themselves with Texas, OU, and the 8 dwarfs? The Big 12 is a downgrade in almost every way from the ACC. Those teams are not going to join the Texas club so that the Longhorns can dictate to them. And they aren't going to leave their association with the academically elite institutions in the ACC. This is such a non-starter of a scenario.
04-04-2021 11:52 AM
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 11:46 AM)ken d Wrote:  This scenario sounds suspiciously like an attempt to direct the reader to find a P5 home for UConn. I've asked this before, with no good answer. Why would a conference willingly try to go to 14 teams - the worst possible even number for a conference schedule? Why not go to 12 or 16 instead?

Yep- and even if The OP’s situation took place, the ACC would select UCF over UConn, particular since FSU and Miami would be gone to the BXII.
04-04-2021 12:56 PM
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
Two words: NOT HAPPENING
04-04-2021 01:02 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #6
RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 11:46 AM)ken d Wrote:  This scenario sounds suspiciously like an attempt to direct the reader to find a P5 home for UConn. I've asked this before, with no good answer. Why would a conference willingly try to go to 14 teams - the worst possible even number for a conference schedule? Why not go to 12 or 16 instead?

14 can't be that bad though, because three of the P5 are at that number, and have been for several years.
04-04-2021 01:04 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  And for what reason do Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Georgia Tech want to align themselves with Texas, OU, and the 8 dwarfs? The Big 12 is a downgrade in almost every way from the ACC.

The only way it will happen is if the ACC is a downgrade in the most important way - money. And the point of the article is that could possibly happen.

Not likely, IMO, but it is possible. And then? Clemson and FSU are 1000% committed to remaining benchmark level with the best football schools in the SEC, B1G and Big 12. They will do anything to maintain that.

What I would find interesting is, what if FSU and Clemson join the Big 12? Because what you'd have left is probably still a power conference. The ACC isn't the Big 12, where we know that if they lose their top two football programs they are sunk as a P-league. But that ACC would be severely wounded nonetheless.

IMO, if the ACC starts to fall hopelessly behind even the Big 12 in revenue, the one card they have is to get Notre Dame to join for football. Beg, borrow or steal, LOL, but make that happen. Even if it means a sweetheart deal.
04-04-2021 01:08 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 01:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 11:46 AM)ken d Wrote:  This scenario sounds suspiciously like an attempt to direct the reader to find a P5 home for UConn. I've asked this before, with no good answer. Why would a conference willingly try to go to 14 teams - the worst possible even number for a conference schedule? Why not go to 12 or 16 instead?

14 can't be that bad though, because three of the P5 are at that number, and have been for several years.

But I don't think any of them sought to be at that number. I think they got that way by taking advantage of targets of opportunity that outweighed the downside of awkward scheduling.
04-04-2021 01:14 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 01:14 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 01:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 11:46 AM)ken d Wrote:  This scenario sounds suspiciously like an attempt to direct the reader to find a P5 home for UConn. I've asked this before, with no good answer. Why would a conference willingly try to go to 14 teams - the worst possible even number for a conference schedule? Why not go to 12 or 16 instead?

14 can't be that bad though, because three of the P5 are at that number, and have been for several years.

But I don't think any of them sought to be at that number. I think they got that way by taking advantage of targets of opportunity that outweighed the downside of awkward scheduling.

But that must mean it's not that big of a deal, right? IOW's, it's not big enough to pass over two valuable teams to stay at 12, or add two less than desirable teams to bump up to 16.

I'm not sure any P5 conference has ever set a target number and then built its strategy around that. The number isn't nearly as important as the schools you are adding. Now at lower levels, where schools are basically interchangeable in value, then sure.
(This post was last modified: 04-04-2021 01:20 PM by quo vadis.)
04-04-2021 01:18 PM
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 09:43 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  https://csnbbs.com/thread-920059.html

The thread above discusses an ESPN article about this. If this comes to be, what four schools would the Big 12 raid, what happens to Notre Dame, and who does the ACC add?

Here is my stab at it:

I believe that Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, BC, NC State, and UNC will remain for sure leaving the other 8 schools (Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, Pitt, VaTech, Geogia Tech, Louisville, FSU) as the potential expansion candidates.

Pitt: I believe they ultimately will not have the brand required.

Notre Dame: They will remain independent and stay in the ACC for Olympic sports.

Louisville: I believe they ultimately will not have the brand required.

VaTech: I believe they are left out for Georgia Tech due to demographics.

The four schools the Big 12 ultimately adds will be Clemson, Miami, FSU, and Georgia Tech.

Due to the football schools leaving, the remaining 10+Notre Dame select UConn and Cincy to bring the conference to 12 in football and 13 in Olympic sports.

The AAC stays pat at 10 and so does the Big East.

What say you?


That ESPN article that you referenced said nothing about the Big 12 Taking 4 schools from the ACC. It actually talks about the ACC or the Pac 12 taking Texas and Oklahoma:

At this point, the conversations are mostly theoretical, but as the smallest and most geographically homogenous league, the Big 12 was a ripe target during the last round of conference realignment a decade ago, and is now looking at its own uncertain future with a new TV deal on the horizon and the shaky status of the Longhorn Network. That could make the Big 12's biggest brands -- the Longhorns and Sooners -- a perfect solution for the ACC or Pac-12's revenue woes and instantly transform an expanded conference into a bigger player in TV negotiations.
04-04-2021 01:39 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
The Big 12 schools should have targeted 6 ACC schools in the last expansion cycle. IMHO:

VT
NC St
Clemson
GT
FSU
Miami

The ACC’s insanely long GOR makes it very difficult for the Big 12 to raid the ACC.
(This post was last modified: 04-04-2021 06:08 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
04-04-2021 01:45 PM
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 01:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  And for what reason do Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Georgia Tech want to align themselves with Texas, OU, and the 8 dwarfs? The Big 12 is a downgrade in almost every way from the ACC.

The only way it will happen is if the ACC is a downgrade in the most important way - money. And the point of the article is that could possibly happen.

Not likely, IMO, but it is possible. And then? Clemson and FSU are 1000% committed to remaining benchmark level with the best football schools in the SEC, B1G and Big 12. They will do anything to maintain that.

What I would find interesting is, what if FSU and Clemson join the Big 12? Because what you'd have left is probably still a power conference. The ACC isn't the Big 12, where we know that if they lose their top two football programs they are sunk as a P-league. But that ACC would be severely wounded nonetheless.

IMO, if the ACC starts to fall hopelessly behind even the Big 12 in revenue, the one card they have is to get Notre Dame to join for football. Beg, borrow or steal, LOL, but make that happen. Even if it means a sweetheart deal.

Heck, if one of the networks wants to throw enough money at a conference to allow this sort of raid to happen, they'd throw the money at the ACC to raid Texas and OU from the Big 12. The ACC properties are more valuable than Little 8. Texas would rather be aligned with the elite ACC schools anyway.
04-04-2021 01:49 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 01:39 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 09:43 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  https://csnbbs.com/thread-920059.html

The thread above discusses an ESPN article about this. If this comes to be, what four schools would the Big 12 raid, what happens to Notre Dame, and who does the ACC add?

Here is my stab at it:

I believe that Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, BC, NC State, and UNC will remain for sure leaving the other 8 schools (Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, Pitt, VaTech, Geogia Tech, Louisville, FSU) as the potential expansion candidates.

Pitt: I believe they ultimately will not have the brand required.

Notre Dame: They will remain independent and stay in the ACC for Olympic sports.

Louisville: I believe they ultimately will not have the brand required.

VaTech: I believe they are left out for Georgia Tech due to demographics.

The four schools the Big 12 ultimately adds will be Clemson, Miami, FSU, and Georgia Tech.

Due to the football schools leaving, the remaining 10+Notre Dame select UConn and Cincy to bring the conference to 12 in football and 13 in Olympic sports.

The AAC stays pat at 10 and so does the Big East.

What say you?


That ESPN article that you referenced said nothing about the Big 12 Taking 4 schools from the ACC. It actually talks about the ACC or the Pac 12 taking Texas and Oklahoma:

At this point, the conversations are mostly theoretical, but as the smallest and most geographically homogenous league, the Big 12 was a ripe target during the last round of conference realignment a decade ago, and is now looking at its own uncertain future with a new TV deal on the horizon and the shaky status of the Longhorn Network. That could make the Big 12's biggest brands -- the Longhorns and Sooners -- a perfect solution for the ACC or Pac-12's revenue woes and instantly transform an expanded conference into a bigger player in TV negotiations.

It may be that the survival of the Big 12 aor ACC depends on who strikes first - can the ACC get TX and OU to bail before the Big 12 can convince Clemson and FSU to bail?

In that scenario, this is how I would see things shaping up:

ACC Advantages

- Stronger top to bottom roster of schools, both athletically and academically

- Experience in waging this kind of battle before, with the Big East a decade ago.

Big 12 Advantages

- Probably making more money per school so more appealing

- FSU/Clemson probably have less culture shock joining Big 12 than TX and OU would have joining the ACC

The wild-card might be intervention by other conferences. E.g., if Clemson and FSU and/or TX and Oklahoma actually seem amenable to moving, the PAC, SEC or B1G might try to capture them too. All three might be interested in TX and OU, whereas maybe on the SEC would be interested in Clemson and FSU.
04-04-2021 02:38 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 01:49 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 01:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  And for what reason do Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Georgia Tech want to align themselves with Texas, OU, and the 8 dwarfs? The Big 12 is a downgrade in almost every way from the ACC.

The only way it will happen is if the ACC is a downgrade in the most important way - money. And the point of the article is that could possibly happen.

Not likely, IMO, but it is possible. And then? Clemson and FSU are 1000% committed to remaining benchmark level with the best football schools in the SEC, B1G and Big 12. They will do anything to maintain that.

What I would find interesting is, what if FSU and Clemson join the Big 12? Because what you'd have left is probably still a power conference. The ACC isn't the Big 12, where we know that if they lose their top two football programs they are sunk as a P-league. But that ACC would be severely wounded nonetheless.

IMO, if the ACC starts to fall hopelessly behind even the Big 12 in revenue, the one card they have is to get Notre Dame to join for football. Beg, borrow or steal, LOL, but make that happen. Even if it means a sweetheart deal.

Heck, if one of the networks wants to throw enough money at a conference to allow this sort of raid to happen, they'd throw the money at the ACC to raid Texas and OU from the Big 12. The ACC properties are more valuable than Little 8. Texas would rather be aligned with the elite ACC schools anyway.

Yes, but IMO if TX and OU actually come "on the market" so to speak, I bet the B1G and SEC will be very interested in them as well. The ACC might have to compete with them to get them.

I think this is an excellent article, and IMO it made a very important point about strategy: The *last* thing the SEC or B1G wants to see is for the ACC to gain ground on them. They compete with the ACC in significant swathes of their territory.
(This post was last modified: 04-04-2021 02:41 PM by quo vadis.)
04-04-2021 02:40 PM
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 01:39 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 09:43 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  https://csnbbs.com/thread-920059.html

The thread above discusses an ESPN article about this. If this comes to be, what four schools would the Big 12 raid, what happens to Notre Dame, and who does the ACC add?

Here is my stab at it:

I believe that Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, BC, NC State, and UNC will remain for sure leaving the other 8 schools (Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, Pitt, VaTech, Geogia Tech, Louisville, FSU) as the potential expansion candidates.

Pitt: I believe they ultimately will not have the brand required.

Notre Dame: They will remain independent and stay in the ACC for Olympic sports.

Louisville: I believe they ultimately will not have the brand required.

VaTech: I believe they are left out for Georgia Tech due to demographics.

The four schools the Big 12 ultimately adds will be Clemson, Miami, FSU, and Georgia Tech.

Due to the football schools leaving, the remaining 10+Notre Dame select UConn and Cincy to bring the conference to 12 in football and 13 in Olympic sports.

The AAC stays pat at 10 and so does the Big East.

What say you?


That ESPN article that you referenced said nothing about the Big 12 Taking 4 schools from the ACC. It actually talks about the ACC or the Pac 12 taking Texas and Oklahoma:

At this point, the conversations are mostly theoretical, but as the smallest and most geographically homogenous league, the Big 12 was a ripe target during the last round of conference realignment a decade ago, and is now looking at its own uncertain future with a new TV deal on the horizon and the shaky status of the Longhorn Network. That could make the Big 12's biggest brands -- the Longhorns and Sooners -- a perfect solution for the ACC or Pac-12's revenue woes and instantly transform an expanded conference into a bigger player in TV negotiations.

I agree with this. If anything, this article shows there is a bigger possibilty of UT/OU joining the ACC or the PAC-12 than the most people on this board want to believe.
04-04-2021 04:38 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
There’s a lot that can happen in 2024—

Texas and Oklahoma join the SEC or Big Ten (both need not join the same one)

A “best of” conference emerges from the Big 12 and PAC 12

Everyone stands pat and waits another decade

I’m just not ready yet to pull the trigger on Texas/Oklahoma to the ACC. It’s just too much of a fish out of water pairing to me.
04-04-2021 06:27 PM
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 02:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 01:49 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 01:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  And for what reason do Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Georgia Tech want to align themselves with Texas, OU, and the 8 dwarfs? The Big 12 is a downgrade in almost every way from the ACC.

The only way it will happen is if the ACC is a downgrade in the most important way - money. And the point of the article is that could possibly happen.

Not likely, IMO, but it is possible. And then? Clemson and FSU are 1000% committed to remaining benchmark level with the best football schools in the SEC, B1G and Big 12. They will do anything to maintain that.

What I would find interesting is, what if FSU and Clemson join the Big 12? Because what you'd have left is probably still a power conference. The ACC isn't the Big 12, where we know that if they lose their top two football programs they are sunk as a P-league. But that ACC would be severely wounded nonetheless.

IMO, if the ACC starts to fall hopelessly behind even the Big 12 in revenue, the one card they have is to get Notre Dame to join for football. Beg, borrow or steal, LOL, but make that happen. Even if it means a sweetheart deal.

Heck, if one of the networks wants to throw enough money at a conference to allow this sort of raid to happen, they'd throw the money at the ACC to raid Texas and OU from the Big 12. The ACC properties are more valuable than Little 8. Texas would rather be aligned with the elite ACC schools anyway.

Yes, but IMO if TX and OU actually come "on the market" so to speak, I bet the B1G and SEC will be very interested in them as well. The ACC might have to compete with them to get them.

I think this is an excellent article, and IMO it made a very important point about strategy: The *last* thing the SEC or B1G wants to see is for the ACC to gain ground on them. They compete with the ACC in significant swathes of their territory.

ACC can offer Texas a Notre Dame type deal. I think you could have the Big Ten and SEC going back and forth trying to Kansas & Oklahoma respectively to their conferences.
04-04-2021 11:47 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 11:47 PM)Realignment Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 02:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 01:49 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 01:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  And for what reason do Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Georgia Tech want to align themselves with Texas, OU, and the 8 dwarfs? The Big 12 is a downgrade in almost every way from the ACC.

The only way it will happen is if the ACC is a downgrade in the most important way - money. And the point of the article is that could possibly happen.

Not likely, IMO, but it is possible. And then? Clemson and FSU are 1000% committed to remaining benchmark level with the best football schools in the SEC, B1G and Big 12. They will do anything to maintain that.

What I would find interesting is, what if FSU and Clemson join the Big 12? Because what you'd have left is probably still a power conference. The ACC isn't the Big 12, where we know that if they lose their top two football programs they are sunk as a P-league. But that ACC would be severely wounded nonetheless.

IMO, if the ACC starts to fall hopelessly behind even the Big 12 in revenue, the one card they have is to get Notre Dame to join for football. Beg, borrow or steal, LOL, but make that happen. Even if it means a sweetheart deal.

Heck, if one of the networks wants to throw enough money at a conference to allow this sort of raid to happen, they'd throw the money at the ACC to raid Texas and OU from the Big 12. The ACC properties are more valuable than Little 8. Texas would rather be aligned with the elite ACC schools anyway.

Yes, but IMO if TX and OU actually come "on the market" so to speak, I bet the B1G and SEC will be very interested in them as well. The ACC might have to compete with them to get them.

I think this is an excellent article, and IMO it made a very important point about strategy: The *last* thing the SEC or B1G wants to see is for the ACC to gain ground on them. They compete with the ACC in significant swathes of their territory.

ACC can offer Texas a Notre Dame type deal. I think you could have the Big Ten and SEC going back and forth trying to Kansas & Oklahoma respectively to their conferences.

If anybody is going to offer Texas a Notre Dame type deal it almost surely would be the Big 12, not the ACC. Texas would want to keep its Olympic sports much closer to home and the ACC schools wouldn't want to travel to Texas.
04-05-2021 07:29 AM
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Post: #19
RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
Just another click bait article. No one in the ACC is moving to the B12.
04-05-2021 07:56 AM
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RE: The Big 12 raiding the ACC for 4 schools
(04-04-2021 01:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-04-2021 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  And for what reason do Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Georgia Tech want to align themselves with Texas, OU, and the 8 dwarfs? The Big 12 is a downgrade in almost every way from the ACC.

The only way it will happen is if the ACC is a downgrade in the most important way - money. And the point of the article is that could possibly happen.

Not likely, IMO, but it is possible. And then? Clemson and FSU are 1000% committed to remaining benchmark level with the best football schools in the SEC, B1G and Big 12. They will do anything to maintain that.

What I would find interesting is, what if FSU and Clemson join the Big 12? Because what you'd have left is probably still a power conference. The ACC isn't the Big 12, where we know that if they lose their top two football programs they are sunk as a P-league. But that ACC would be severely wounded nonetheless.

IMO, if the ACC starts to fall hopelessly behind even the Big 12 in revenue, the one card they have is to get Notre Dame to join for football. Beg, borrow or steal, LOL, but make that happen. Even if it means a sweetheart deal.

A "sweetheart deal" is irrelevant if the other side is not interested in joining at all.
04-05-2021 08:07 AM
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