The normal rule for lawyers is to not put too much stock in statements made in appellate oral arguments.
All lawyers have had cases where they thought they did really well (or poorly) in oral argument, only to be surprised by the ultimate ruling.
That said, I don't think that this is one of those times.
Look, back in 1918 Knute Rockne was a chemistry professor at ND. He had to be to make enough money as coaching salaries were very low.
ND had a wooden bleachers stadium then called Cartier Field.
Even then, college football was not really an "amateur" sport.
It sure as hell is not one now. No one can deny that billions flow through college athletic departments now.
Everyone involved is a professional making a salary...except the players.
The Justices seemed to believe that universities now pay their players (so not amateur), just not enough.
"Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. responded that some of the payments the association already allows had a similar character.
“Schools can pay up to $50,000 for a $10 million insurance policy to protect student-athletes for future earnings,” he said.
“Now that sounds very much like pay for play.” very much like pay for play.”
Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., drawing on briefs supporting the players, painted a bleak picture of athletes’ lives and futures.
“They face training requirements that leave little time or energy for study, constant pressure to put sports above study, pressure to drop out of hard majors and hard classes, really shockingly low graduation rates,” he said. “Only a tiny percentage ever go on to make any money in professional sports.”
“So the argument is they are recruited, they’re used up, and then they’re cast aside without even a college degree,” he said.
“How can this be defended in the name of amateurism?”
Mr. Waxman said the alternative would be worse. “If you allow them to be paid,” he said, “they will be spending even more time on their athletics and devoting even less attention to academics.”
Justice Alito said the athletes were already paid. “They get lower admission standards,” he said. “They get tuition, room and board, and other things. That’s a form of pay.
So the distinction is not whether they’re going to be paid. It’s the form in which they’re going to be paid and how much they’re going to be paid.”
(I found Justice Alito's question to be the crux of the entire matter, How can this be continually justified?)
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/su...-ncaa.html