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At risk of inflating Mark’s noggin, thought I’d start an end of the year analysis of Kenpom prior to the Elite 8 games. Couple things that are interesting. Especially as we possibly look for another head coach and style of play becomes a topic. Some intuitive, perhaps some not.

Efficient offense really is key to success in March: 6 of the Elite 8 teams are rated in the top 14 in adjusted offense.
#1. Gonzaga
#3. Baylor
#7. Michigan
#8. Houston
#11. UCLA
#14. USC

However, Defense is, too. 5 of the Elite 8 are rated in the top 10 in adjusted D.
#4. USC
#6. Houston
#7. Gonzaga
#8. Michigan
#10. Arkansas

Interestingly, despite fans often wanting up and down basketball, Tempo does not appear to be nearly as important. Only 3 of the elite 8 are rated even in the top 1/2 of all 350+ D1 teams (and one just barely).

#6. Gonzaga
#17. Arkansas
#179. Baylor

5 of the Elite 8 rank in the bottom 1/2 of all D1 teams and 3 rank near the absolute bottom in Tempo.

#224. USC
#247. Michigan
#305. Oregon State
#326. Houston
#337. UCLA

Finally, worth noting when you fill out brackets in the future that of the Elite 8, all but Oregon State rank in the top 18 overall in Kenpom. Granted each of these get a bump by still being alive and beating good teams...but 7 of the top 18 is hard to argue with.

http://kenpom.com/

These trends hold over the entire kenpom era.

Tempo doesn't matter one way or the other. Balance is typically key. To be a real championship contender you need to be elite at both. This year ucla and Oregon state are the elite eight outliers.

Based on my A&S math, UCLA at #55 is in the top 15% of D1 defense...crazy that this is an outlier but the trends say otherwise.

The area between good and elite is pretty darn large.

How do they define tempo? Aren't turnovers in the equation?

It’s the average # of possessions you would have over 40 minutes if you were to play a team that was right in the 50th percentile of tempo. Not sure how he does the math on it but my suspicion is low turnover averages would lend themselves to lower numbers of possessions.

The only thing I don't like about slow tempo is that it can allow lesser teams to stay within striking distance. But you can definitely win with any type of pace on offense. The quality of shots your offense can generate and the talent of the players to make them are the most important things by far. If your style of offense generates high quality shots by pushing the tempo, great. If walking the ball up the court and running a methodical offense results in good looks, that's great as well.

I've done a little statistical analysis of my own and I've found that the team that scores more points in a game than their opponent wins the game an overwhelming majority of the time.

This is interesting data.

(03-29-2021 04:46 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  I've done a little statistical analysis of my own and I've found that the team that scores more points in a game than their opponent wins the game an overwhelming majority of the time.

More nonsense from Bearcatlett. The team with more deflections wins and overwhelming majority of the time.

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KenPom's Tempo stats are absolute garbage, because getting an offensive rebound slows down tempo according to their stats.