After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

Yep!
People keep posting because "things are just not right".
There are schools that are now in places they shouldn't be and are only there for the wrong reasons.

The real question should be:
Is the placement of the Big 12 content on ESPN+ without a linear network to help support that league enough (and the wave of the future) or just a holding spot to park the Big 12 until the league is dismantled when their current contracts expire?

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC

...

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

To the first point, I counter with West Virginia, who would take an ACC invite in an instant. The feeling is less than mutual, however.

To the second point, if Oklahoma goes to the SEC along with one of Texas or Oklahoma State, then OU can easily schedule the other annually, just like UK does with Louisville, SC with Clemson, UGA with GT, and UF with FSU.

What about the giant revenue gap between Oklahoma and the SEC/Big 10?

Would any conference take all 3 (UT/OU/OSU)

(03-26-2021 05:29 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC

...

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

To the first point, I counter with West Virginia, who would take an ACC invite in an instant. The feeling is less than mutual, however.

To the second point, if Oklahoma goes to the SEC along with one of Texas or Oklahoma State, then OU can easily schedule the other annually, just like UK does with Louisville, SC with Clemson, UGA with GT, and UF with FSU.

I should have phrased that as "no Big 12 team that the ACC would accept".

Yes, If OU and Texas or OU and OSU went together to the SEC then OU could still schedule the other as a tenth P5 game (the SEC would have to go to a nine game schedule) with two buy games. If OU and, say, Kansas went to the SEC then they would have to choose either UT or OSU or give up the seventh home game.

(03-26-2021 05:09 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

Yep!
People keep posting because "things are just not right".
There are schools that are now in places they shouldn't be and are only there for the wrong reasons.

The real question should be:
Is the placement of the Big 12 content on ESPN+ without a linear network to help support that league enough (and the wave of the future) or just a holding spot to park the Big 12 until the league is dismantled when their current contracts expire?

Schools may well be where they shouldn't be. That doesn't mean that they would/could realign to fix that problem. Vandy probably isn't where they should be, but they're not going anywhere. West Virginia probably isn't where they should be, but nobody is going to bail them out.

For reasons I outlined, the Big 12 is more likely to stay intact than be dismantled in the next few years IMO.

(03-26-2021 06:44 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Would any conference take all 3 (UT/OU/OSU)

They could, but they'd probably need to take a fourth team in that case. But, frankly, I don't think either Texas or Oklahoma truly want to be in a different conference. While that means they will continue to live with the fact that their media revenue will lag the Top Two, they both have enough money to stay competitive.

(03-26-2021 07:26 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 06:44 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Would any conference take all 3 (UT/OU/OSU)

They could, but they'd probably need to take a fourth team in that case. But, frankly, I don't think either Texas or Oklahoma truly want to be in a different conference. While that means they will continue to live with the fact that their media revenue will lag the Top Two, they both have enough money to stay competitive.

Massive lost revenue over the coming decade after the GORs expire would make an assumption in either direction difficult to dismiss and that is why this topic is all the more intriguing. Add to it a generational shift that is underway and will be essentially completed by 2035 and you have all the more reason as a responsible administrator to consider drastic change. The economy will be another compelling factor and should the threat of contagion move forward with us media revenue will outstrip gate and donations further increasing the pressure to move.

As to the question about taking 3 Ken is correct that it would be 4. Texas, Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State would not be preferable to the SEC or acceptable to the Big 10, but taking the 4 would give the SEC a modest boost in revenue, cement their leverage for ad revenue in Texas, and lock them into the #1 position as a college sports value as it would leave the Big 10 nobody to add in combination with Notre Dame to catch them up. So it's possible, but probably not likely.

Face it adding Texas and Oklahoma even with the other state schools gives the SEC dominance over nearly 33 million viewers and such brand power and content power as to be unassailable in value. That's gong to be a tempting move, though not the one the SEC would prefer.

(03-26-2021 07:21 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 05:09 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

Yep!
People keep posting because "things are just not right".
There are schools that are now in places they shouldn't be and are only there for the wrong reasons.

The real question should be:
Is the placement of the Big 12 content on ESPN+ without a linear network to help support that league enough (and the wave of the future) or just a holding spot to park the Big 12 until the league is dismantled when their current contracts expire?

Schools may well be where they shouldn't be. That doesn't mean that they would/could realign to fix that problem. Vandy probably isn't where they should be, but they're not going anywhere. West Virginia probably isn't where they should be, but nobody is going to bail them out.

For reasons I outlined, the Big 12 is more likely to stay intact than be dismantled in the next few years IMO.

West Virginia's situation is as good as they can hope for right now. They truly do belong with their rivals in the ACC. I could even see them working in the SEC. But for West Virginia, the Big 12 is home for now and will be for some time. Part of the main reason I advocate for expansion in the Big 12 is to bring them some rivals and regional peers. West Virginia's presence has really elevated the Big 12's brand in that segment of the country up to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and DC. Outside of history and geography, West Virginia fits like a glove in the Big 12 IMO. I think all the fanbases enjoy having them here and enjoy their games as they are pretty tough and competitive.

WVU remains the only team I could see hopping to another conference and it would come as zero surprise to anyone. But the current dynamic insists that the Mountaineers and the Big 12 will be together for a while longer yet.

Could the PAC-12 grab the big 4 (UT/TT/OU/OSU)

(03-26-2021 08:02 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Could the PAC-12 grab the big 4 (UT/TT/OU/OSU)

What's changed since the last time the PAC tried that? If anything, the Big 12's revenue gains make that less likely, IMO, not more likely. Austin and Norman aren't just very far away from the Pacific Ocean - it's also in the wrong direction when your teams lose an extra two hours on return trips because of time zones.

I wouldn't put it past either OU or UT to string the PAC along for leverage against other conferences bidding for their services. Not that it would really work against the SEC or B1G.

(03-26-2021 07:15 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 05:29 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC

...

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

To the first point, I counter with West Virginia, who would take an ACC invite in an instant. The feeling is less than mutual, however.

To the second point, if Oklahoma goes to the SEC along with one of Texas or Oklahoma State, then OU can easily schedule the other annually, just like UK does with Louisville, SC with Clemson, UGA with GT, and UF with FSU.

I should have phrased that as "no Big 12 team that the ACC would accept".

Yes, If OU and Texas or OU and OSU went together to the SEC then OU could still schedule the other as a tenth P5 game (the SEC would have to go to a nine game schedule) with two buy games. If OU and, say, Kansas went to the SEC then they would have to choose either UT or OSU or give up the seventh home game.

Why would the SEC have to go to 9 conference games? I expect they'd stay at 8. At least 4 schools would be in favor of staying at 8. Rotating pods are a far better solution than 2 fixed 8-team divisions, especially since the SEC would retain an 8-game schedule. Rather than taking 16 years to play all teams in the conference home and away, as with fixed divisions and no protected crossovers, with pods it would only take 6 years at most.

Ken: I don't closely follow PAC-12 revenue. But I thought everyone here agreed they were the P5 Conference most in need of revenue. I can think of 3 reasons why they'd want those teams (was gonna add this the my other post, iPad died)

1. Expand into Texas
2. Keeps those teams away from SEC and B1G
3. Balance the divisions

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

Correct, Add to that TV has no desire for any to move.

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

You covered all pertinent info. But this won't stop people from making threads about their <0.1% fantasy, and then following up that thread with a <0.1% fantasy spin-off thread about their <0.1% original fantasy.

(03-26-2021 07:56 AM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 07:21 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 05:09 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

Yep!
People keep posting because "things are just not right".
There are schools that are now in places they shouldn't be and are only there for the wrong reasons.

The real question should be:
Is the placement of the Big 12 content on ESPN+ without a linear network to help support that league enough (and the wave of the future) or just a holding spot to park the Big 12 until the league is dismantled when their current contracts expire?

Schools may well be where they shouldn't be. That doesn't mean that they would/could realign to fix that problem. Vandy probably isn't where they should be, but they're not going anywhere. West Virginia probably isn't where they should be, but nobody is going to bail them out.

For reasons I outlined, the Big 12 is more likely to stay intact than be dismantled in the next few years IMO.

West Virginia's situation is as good as they can hope for right now. They truly do belong with their rivals in the ACC. I could even see them working in the SEC. But for West Virginia, the Big 12 is home for now and will be for some time. Part of the main reason I advocate for expansion in the Big 12 is to bring them some rivals and regional peers. West Virginia's presence has really elevated the Big 12's brand in that segment of the country up to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and DC. Outside of history and geography, West Virginia fits like a glove in the Big 12 IMO. I think all the fanbases enjoy having them here and enjoy their games as they are pretty tough and competitive.

WVU remains the only team I could see hopping to another conference and it would come as zero surprise to anyone. But the current dynamic insists that the Mountaineers and the Big 12 will be together for a while longer yet.

Whose to say that long range planners at UNC won't look around at the massive amounts of money and exposure they are missing out on by remaining in the ACC and at the demographic change coming, and at the economic difficulty that may arise with Federal and State grants as inflation from a weakened dollar sets in, and decide to make a leap with the assistance of their media partner?

When you could literally double your revenue elsewhere why stay?

In that world a move by UNC, Virginia and Notre Dame to the Big 10 for instance would mean that ESPN still has 48% access to them. If Duke were part of that package then ESPN doesn't have to increase their payouts to these schools to make it work. FOX would be adding states they could advertise in more easily and that would justify the extra money for them.

The SEC could look at picking up markets in North Carolina and Virginia by adding Tech and N.C. State, and cementing ad leverage in Florida by taking F.S.U. Then the question would be who else? The SEC has Georgia but may not want anyone in Atlanta so they might take Tech back. Clemson is the obvious content value but South Carolina is a small state so that would have to be weighed with South Carolina already in the conference. But the Gamecock administration would be pushing hard for Clemson, while the Georgia administration would be tepid at best about Tech because that's how they played their hands in 2012. Florida in spite of internet hooey sponsored FSU for SEC membership twice so the Gators would be fine.

It would be an interesting decision between Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Then the Big 12 could be picked up by ESPN in full, or kept split with FOX and the same scenario plays out. Boston College, Syracuse and Pitt join Miami, Louisville and the odd man out between Georgia Tech and Clemson in the SEC and ESPN's total cost is the difference between the 32 million they are set to pay out to the ACC members and the 37 million (roughly) they pay Big 12 schools now, plus the raise for markets. And that's if ESPN buys total rights to the Big 12. They keep Texas happy, raise it enough to keep OU in place, and vastly expand the markets of the Big 12.

So the only real cost to ESPN up front would be elevating the 4 teams that would head to the SEC. 14 schools from the ACC would be covered and Wake would be likely acceptable to the AAC (also owned by ESPN) and Wake could get the exit fees. The GOR would be dissolved by ESPN and the conference. The Big 12 moves to 16, and the SEC and Big 10 move to 18. The expansion for those two conferences is within their parameters and makes geographical sense.

The Big 12 breaks down like this:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Iowa State, Louisville, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech

So you are probably looking at mid 40's in per team payout.

ESPN's model has been to own outright every state school of note below Virginia and Kentucky and Missouri southward.

So ESPN gives up about half of their rights in Virginia and North Carolina but double dip between the SEC and Big 10 games in those states enhancing Big 10 basketball and SEC football in the process and adding 20 million to both conference's markets. ESPN would own more of Notre Dame in the Big 10 as a full member than they do in the ACC as a partial and N.D. in the Big 10 increases ad leverage for ESPN and FOX in the Northern Midwest and Northeast.

So to keep essentially what they want buying all of the Big 12 rights and converting the LHN into a Big 12N also works in ESPN's favor especially with that network now marketing in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania.

So what appears to some to be an unreasonable outcome for ESPN to permit, actually stands to make them a lot more money than by just keeping the ACC on the cheap, and it doesn't tip the balance of power between the SEC and Big 10 which is necessary to keep interest, and it doesn't cost them a boat load of money to do, and it keeps the Big 10 relatively happy and after all FOX while a competitor is also an investor in Disney.

If FOX and Disney split the PAC rights they lose nothing by the venture. If Amazon buys the PACN and PAC rights they haven't lost much either.

There are always angles to be considered in business.

Great summary. With the exception of a few knits (e.g., WVU’s desire), it really covers the landscape.

The speculation never stops because of the changing environmental factors. There are no perfect answers as to how these events will unfold...
1) Media delivery and revenue growth is currently a huge responsibility for conference leaders. The BIG and SEC dominate other conferences with regards to media value. Yet some schools (e.g., Notre Dame, Texas) can successfully have different business media strategies.
2) Public policy, laws and politics have long term impact. Universities have all these complex relationships that make big differences in college athletics. “Donations” are a major source of revenue, but the spigot could be closed at any time.
3) Competition and interests vary across regions and demographics. How concussions and paying student-athletes are addressed can have a huge impact.

It’s fun speculation because of the different perspectives on the unknowns.

I could see Mizzou leaving the SEC for the BIG if KU was going. And maybe then the SEC considers WVU which is a better fit in the east geographically. After that I would think that the PAC tries to pull in UT + one other. Extreme long shot but I think it's possible. If the SEC did lose Mizzou and jumped to 16 I would guess UT and OU or OU and OSU with UT going indy. The B12 remnants picks off the best of the AAC and MW.

I honestly think that the PAC 12 and Big 12 need to expand. The Big 12 made a huge mistake not adding 2 teams when it was looking at expansion last time. I think 14 team is the next step for the P5. I just think there was no agreement on the #12 team assuming Cincinnati was #11. If the Big 12 need expanded earlier the 2 new teams could be in a better footing when the last 2 teams are added.

Expansion would also re widen the gap between the P5 and G5 again. While the Big 12 is the only one adding new market's/recruiting grounds. In my mind the PAC 12 adds San Diego State and either Hawaii or Boise State. The Big 12 adds Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and Temple. I think Navy leaves the AAC and UConn moves back as a football only with UMass being the #8 team. I don't know if the new 8 team AAC can be viewed as better than C-USA or the Sun Belt. The MWC adds NMSU and UTEP then shifts Utah State to the west.