(03-26-2021 10:59 AM)46566 Wrote:  I honestly think that the PAC 12 and Big 12 need to expand. The Big 12 made a huge mistake not adding 2 teams when it was looking at expansion last time. I think 14 team is the next step for the P5. I just think there was no agreement on the #12 team assuming Cincinnati was #11. If the Big 12 need expanded earlier the 2 new teams could be in a better footing when the last 2 teams are added.

Expansion would also re widen the gap between the P5 and G5 again. While the Big 12 is the only one adding new market's/recruiting grounds. In my mind the PAC 12 adds San Diego State and either Hawaii or Boise State. The Big 12 adds Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and Temple. I think Navy leaves the AAC and UConn moves back as a football only with UMass being the #8 team. I don't know if the new 8 team AAC can be viewed as better than C-USA or the Sun Belt. The MWC adds NMSU and UTEP then shifts Utah State to the west.

Though I can't speak as to the PAC, the B12 did not expand because ESPN and Fox said that none of the proposed additions would result in any increased payment to the conference. I certainly doubt things have changed and may be even worse today than things were then. In other words, if the conference expanded existing schools would simply have more mouths to feed with the same money. Thus, each existing school would have to take a CUT if the conference expanded. Since the schools did not want that...no expansion. BTW since ESPN is paying AAC schools ~ $7M or so a school, why would they want to have them move to the B12 to pay them 4x-5x that??

Big 12 - agree - they should expand

There is only one school that brings in enough fan base and ratings to justify adding to B12: BYU

If the idea is to get to 12, the natural travel partner would be Colorado State, which has an endowment/athletic budget that places them squarely in middle of other B12 teams and does add a new TV market.

If the B12 wanted to go nuts and get to 14, they could add CINCI as a travel partner for WV, and UCF(!)

You'd have a B12 East with ISU, KU, KSU, CINCI, WV, UCF and BAYLR and a B12 West with BYU, CSU, TCU, TEX, TTCH, OU, OSU

or if you want to keep old Big 8 together (I do)
B12 North: ISU, KU, KSU, OU, OSU, WV, CINCI
B12 South: BYU, CSU, TTCH, TEX, TCU, BAY, UCF

(03-26-2021 11:39 AM)ICThawk Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 10:59 AM)46566 Wrote:  I honestly think that the PAC 12 and Big 12 need to expand. The Big 12 made a huge mistake not adding 2 teams when it was looking at expansion last time. I think 14 team is the next step for the P5. I just think there was no agreement on the #12 team assuming Cincinnati was #11. If the Big 12 need expanded earlier the 2 new teams could be in a better footing when the last 2 teams are added.

Expansion would also re widen the gap between the P5 and G5 again. While the Big 12 is the only one adding new market's/recruiting grounds. In my mind the PAC 12 adds San Diego State and either Hawaii or Boise State. The Big 12 adds Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and Temple. I think Navy leaves the AAC and UConn moves back as a football only with UMass being the #8 team. I don't know if the new 8 team AAC can be viewed as better than C-USA or the Sun Belt. The MWC adds NMSU and UTEP then shifts Utah State to the west.

Though I can't speak as to the PAC, the B12 did not expand because ESPN and Fox said that none of the proposed additions would result in any increased payment to the conference. I certainly doubt things have changed and may be even worse today than things were then. In other words, if the conference expanded existing schools would simply have more mouths to feed with the same money. Thus, each existing school would have to take a CUT if the conference expanded. Since the schools did not want that...no expansion. BTW since ESPN is paying AAC schools ~ $7M or so a school, why would they want to have them move to the B12 to pay them 4x-5x that??

My thoughts would be a eventual Big 12 network with the longhorn network getting Texas Home games. You shave some of the value of the longhorn network to the Big 12 network. With the weekend AAC you cut costs per school. You could end up paying $3 million a school. ESPN could try to make money while people still have cable or satellite.

(03-26-2021 01:14 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Big 12 - agree - they should expand

There is only one school that brings in enough fan base and ratings to justify adding to B12: BYU

If the idea is to get to 12, the natural travel partner would be Colorado State, which has an endowment/athletic budget that places them squarely in middle of other B12 teams and does add a new TV market.

If the B12 wanted to go nuts and get to 14, they could add CINCI as a travel partner for WV, and UCF(!)

You'd have a B12 East with ISU, KU, KSU, CINCI, WV, UCF and BAYLR and a B12 West with BYU, CSU, TCU, TEX, TTCH, OU, OSU

or if you want to keep old Big 8 together (I do)
B12 North: ISU, KU, KSU, OU, OSU, WV, CINCI
B12 South: BYU, CSU, TTCH, TEX, TCU, BAY, UCF

If BYU is only worth ~$7M to ESPN (approximate current payment from ESPN), you are asking the current B12 schools to each take a CUT of ~$3M+ to accommodate them! And that is if only BYU joins, To add CIN, CSU & UCF would be a cut of ~$10M per school to the current B12 members! Good luck with that. You would be assured UT & OU (and anyone else who could) would leave for greener pastures.
This is a BUSINESS, not Monopoly.

(03-26-2021 02:20 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 11:39 AM)ICThawk Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 10:59 AM)46566 Wrote:  I honestly think that the PAC 12 and Big 12 need to expand. The Big 12 made a huge mistake not adding 2 teams when it was looking at expansion last time. I think 14 team is the next step for the P5. I just think there was no agreement on the #12 team assuming Cincinnati was #11. If the Big 12 need expanded earlier the 2 new teams could be in a better footing when the last 2 teams are added.

Expansion would also re widen the gap between the P5 and G5 again. While the Big 12 is the only one adding new market's/recruiting grounds. In my mind the PAC 12 adds San Diego State and either Hawaii or Boise State. The Big 12 adds Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and Temple. I think Navy leaves the AAC and UConn moves back as a football only with UMass being the #8 team. I don't know if the new 8 team AAC can be viewed as better than C-USA or the Sun Belt. The MWC adds NMSU and UTEP then shifts Utah State to the west.

Though I can't speak as to the PAC, the B12 did not expand because ESPN and Fox said that none of the proposed additions would result in any increased payment to the conference. I certainly doubt things have changed and may be even worse today than things were then. In other words, if the conference expanded existing schools would simply have more mouths to feed with the same money. Thus, each existing school would have to take a CUT if the conference expanded. Since the schools did not want that...no expansion. BTW since ESPN is paying AAC schools ~ $7M or so a school, why would they want to have them move to the B12 to pay them 4x-5x that??

My thoughts would be a eventual Big 12 network with the longhorn network getting Texas Home games. You shave some of the value of the longhorn network to the Big 12 network. With the weekend AAC you cut costs per school. You could end up paying $3 million a school. ESPN could try to make money while people still have cable or satellite.

I think you're expecting UT to do something history does not support them doing....sharing.

(03-26-2021 08:02 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Could the PAC-12 grab the big 4 (UT/TT/OU/OSU)

The Big 4??? Thats a joke.

(03-26-2021 05:02 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 02:20 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 11:39 AM)ICThawk Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 10:59 AM)46566 Wrote:  I honestly think that the PAC 12 and Big 12 need to expand. The Big 12 made a huge mistake not adding 2 teams when it was looking at expansion last time. I think 14 team is the next step for the P5. I just think there was no agreement on the #12 team assuming Cincinnati was #11. If the Big 12 need expanded earlier the 2 new teams could be in a better footing when the last 2 teams are added.

Expansion would also re widen the gap between the P5 and G5 again. While the Big 12 is the only one adding new market's/recruiting grounds. In my mind the PAC 12 adds San Diego State and either Hawaii or Boise State. The Big 12 adds Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and Temple. I think Navy leaves the AAC and UConn moves back as a football only with UMass being the #8 team. I don't know if the new 8 team AAC can be viewed as better than C-USA or the Sun Belt. The MWC adds NMSU and UTEP then shifts Utah State to the west.

Though I can't speak as to the PAC, the B12 did not expand because ESPN and Fox said that none of the proposed additions would result in any increased payment to the conference. I certainly doubt things have changed and may be even worse today than things were then. In other words, if the conference expanded existing schools would simply have more mouths to feed with the same money. Thus, each existing school would have to take a CUT if the conference expanded. Since the schools did not want that...no expansion. BTW since ESPN is paying AAC schools ~ $7M or so a school, why would they want to have them move to the B12 to pay them 4x-5x that??

My thoughts would be a eventual Big 12 network with the longhorn network getting Texas Home games. You shave some of the value of the longhorn network to the Big 12 network. With the weekend AAC you cut costs per school. You could end up paying $3 million a school. ESPN could try to make money while people still have cable or satellite.

I think you're expecting UT to do something history does not support them doing....sharing.

Oh, I thought you were going to say winning

(03-26-2021 06:28 PM)Todor Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 05:02 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 02:20 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 11:39 AM)ICThawk Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 10:59 AM)46566 Wrote:  I honestly think that the PAC 12 and Big 12 need to expand. The Big 12 made a huge mistake not adding 2 teams when it was looking at expansion last time. I think 14 team is the next step for the P5. I just think there was no agreement on the #12 team assuming Cincinnati was #11. If the Big 12 need expanded earlier the 2 new teams could be in a better footing when the last 2 teams are added.

Expansion would also re widen the gap between the P5 and G5 again. While the Big 12 is the only one adding new market's/recruiting grounds. In my mind the PAC 12 adds San Diego State and either Hawaii or Boise State. The Big 12 adds Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and Temple. I think Navy leaves the AAC and UConn moves back as a football only with UMass being the #8 team. I don't know if the new 8 team AAC can be viewed as better than C-USA or the Sun Belt. The MWC adds NMSU and UTEP then shifts Utah State to the west.

Though I can't speak as to the PAC, the B12 did not expand because ESPN and Fox said that none of the proposed additions would result in any increased payment to the conference. I certainly doubt things have changed and may be even worse today than things were then. In other words, if the conference expanded existing schools would simply have more mouths to feed with the same money. Thus, each existing school would have to take a CUT if the conference expanded. Since the schools did not want that...no expansion. BTW since ESPN is paying AAC schools ~ $7M or so a school, why would they want to have them move to the B12 to pay them 4x-5x that??

My thoughts would be a eventual Big 12 network with the longhorn network getting Texas Home games. You shave some of the value of the longhorn network to the Big 12 network. With the weekend AAC you cut costs per school. You could end up paying $3 million a school. ESPN could try to make money while people still have cable or satellite.

I think you're expecting UT to do something history does not support them doing....sharing.

Oh, I thought you were going to say winning

Guess I should have added that too.....at least recently!

BTW, just announced Shaka is leaving UT for Marquette.....MARQUETTE!

Todor: just a figure of speech

(03-26-2021 01:14 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Big 12 - agree - they should expand

There is only one school that brings in enough fan base and ratings to justify adding to B12: BYU

If the idea is to get to 12, the natural travel partner would be Colorado State, which has an endowment/athletic budget that places them squarely in middle of other B12 teams and does add a new TV market.

If the B12 wanted to go nuts and get to 14, they could add CINCI as a travel partner for WV, and UCF(!)

You'd have a B12 East with ISU, KU, KSU, CINCI, WV, UCF and BAYLR and a B12 West with BYU, CSU, TCU, TEX, TTCH, OU, OSU

or if you want to keep old Big 8 together (I do)
B12 North: ISU, KU, KSU, OU, OSU, WV, CINCI
B12 South: BYU, CSU, TTCH, TEX, TCU, BAY, UCF

My only objections to going back to 12 are as follows:

1. I really like the 10-team setup. It’s obvious that playing everyone, every year has strengthened the ties of the conference. When we were in divisions it was like two little bubbles and not much else. I’d hate to move away from it.

2. If we go to 12, people will compare the new 12 with the old. Unfortunately no additions of realistic candidates will ever match the original lineup with Colorado, Nebraska, Mizzou, and TAMU. Although if we are talking “pie-in-the-sky” options a reformed 12 is Mizzou, Arkansas, Nebraska (with WVU in the ACC) would be really kickass setup. More realistically, if you go to 14 you expand the conference to new areas and avoid a straight “apples” to “apples” comparison. I would advocate adding BYU, CSU, Memphis, and Cincy. It gives new states and recruiting grounds, adds strong available brands without doubling down in Texas. Adds brands in states that can carry a second P5 level team like Ohio and Tennessee and Colorado. It adds great new road trips and places for West Virginia to more reasonably travel to.

Bear: like your first 2 suggestions for expansion, other two are just WVU, but closer. UNM and a school from Nevada makes sense.

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

Yes. The Pac 12 is last in revenue, ratings, exposure and management. So there is a possibility of a California secession from the Pac 12.

JR brings up an alternative. The ACC schools figure out they have more value aligning with the B$G and SEC. So the ACC could disentegrate while at least 12 of their schools find homes elsewhere.

(03-26-2021 09:18 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Bear: like your first 2 suggestions for expansion, other two are just WVU, but closer. UNM and a school from Nevada makes sense.

If the Big 12 went all in on Western expansion, then I think New Mexico is really attractive. It just saddens me that they are complete non-factor in football and basketball. I really, really wish they could find some success in the MWC. If Boise State in Idaho and Wyoming can do it, the they should be able to find success too.

(03-26-2021 09:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  Yes. The Pac 12 is last in revenue, ratings, exposure and management. So there is a possibility of a California secession from the Pac 12.

But in the context of this thread, can it happen by 2024?

One substantial difference between the UT/OU and tagalongs to the PAC and a Big 14 with California and Texas anchored divisions is that in an eight game conference schedule there's only the one cross division away game a year, so the time zone gap does not bit as hard.

But it doesn't seem likely that things can move far enough to get to that point by the Big12 rights expiration, so irrespective of whether it's plausible or not for 2035 and beyond, it doesn't seem very likely as a 2024 scenario.

(03-26-2021 10:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 09:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  Yes. The Pac 12 is last in revenue, ratings, exposure and management. So there is a possibility of a California secession from the Pac 12.

But in the context of this thread, can it happen by 2024?

One substantial difference between the UT/OU and tagalongs to the PAC and a Big 14 with California and Texas anchored divisions is that in an eight game conference schedule there's only the one cross division away game a year, so the time zone gap does not bit as hard.

But it doesn't seem likely that things can move far enough to get to that point by the Big12 rights expiration, so irrespective of whether it's plausible or not for 2035 and beyond, it doesn't seem very likely as a 2024 scenario.

Except that the PAC office announced today that they will push for a new media contract by 2022. That will either work well if they have a nice offer in hand, or blow up in their faces if they don't and there isn't much interest shown, like what happened when they put the PACN out there for backers.

I just don't think anything happens out West but status quo. Texas has no real incentive to head that way.

(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

Pac 12 has room for four additional teams and OU did try to join the Pac 12 with Ok state if my memory is correct. It doesn’t seem like Pac 12 is doing well these days and may become more desperate.

The real question then is what Texas would do if OU and OK state are going to Pac 12.

(03-26-2021 10:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 09:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  Yes. The Pac 12 is last in revenue, ratings, exposure and management. So there is a possibility of a California secession from the Pac 12.

But in the context of this thread, can it happen by 2024?

One substantial difference between the UT/OU and tagalongs to the PAC and a Big 14 with California and Texas anchored divisions is that in an eight game conference schedule there's only the one cross division away game a year, so the time zone gap does not bit as hard.

But it doesn't seem likely that things can move far enough to get to that point by the Big12 rights expiration, so irrespective of whether it's plausible or not for 2035 and beyond, it doesn't seem very likely as a 2024 scenario.

I doubt that the Big 12 wants the baggage of the State of California and its internal politics. That being said, you could lobby, not for a California secession, but a breakup of the PAC 12 should their next round of media negotiations go well.

You could try to pry privates USC and Stanford away from Cal and UCLA. Those two, plus Washington, Oregon, Utah and Colorado, would be an attractive package for ESPN since it gives them dominance over the two western time zones to go along with their existing assets everywhere but B1G territory (where they already have a share). When their existing network capabilities are merged with the LHN you get a pretty strong PSWC Network.

As you point out, travel issues aren't as big an issue as one might think. One football game a year cross division, and a divisionless basketball schedule with five fixed home and home opponents plus single games against the remaining 8 teams gives you an 18 game league schedule where there would only be two west coast trips a year and one mountain time zone trip.

I still don't think any of this is likely, but it isn't completely off the wall either, as it could give all 16 teams a raise and allows everyone to keep all their OOC rivalry games. It also results in a de facto P4.

(03-27-2021 08:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 10:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 09:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  Yes. The Pac 12 is last in revenue, ratings, exposure and management. So there is a possibility of a California secession from the Pac 12.

But in the context of this thread, can it happen by 2024?

One substantial difference between the UT/OU and tagalongs to the PAC and a Big 14 with California and Texas anchored divisions is that in an eight game conference schedule there's only the one cross division away game a year, so the time zone gap does not bit as hard.

But it doesn't seem likely that things can move far enough to get to that point by the Big12 rights expiration, so irrespective of whether it's plausible or not for 2035 and beyond, it doesn't seem very likely as a 2024 scenario.

I doubt that the Big 12 wants the baggage of the State of California and its internal politics. That being said, you could lobby, not for a California secession, but a breakup of the PAC 12 should their next round of media negotiations go well.

But you could try to pry privates USC and Stanford away from Cal and UCLA. Those two, plus Washington, Oregon, Utah and Colorado, would be an attractive package for ESPN since it gives them dominance over the two western timezones to go along with their existing assets everywhere but B1G territory (where they already have a share). When their existing network capabilities are merged with the LHN you get a pretty strong PSWC Network.

As you point out, travel issues aren't as big an issue as one might think. One football game a year cross division, and a divisionless basketball schedule with five fixed home and home opponents plus single games against the remaining 8 teams gives you an 18 game league schedule where there would only be two west coast trips a year and one mountain time zone trip.

I still don't think any of this is likely, but it isn't completely off the wall either, as it could give all 16 teams a raise and allows everyone to keep all their OOC rivalry games. It also results in a de facto P4.

Team travel isn't a big issue, but fan travel is. From the standpoint of a fan, a conference with a regional identity is preferable because folks from one school are more likely to show up and support their team at another if it's within a half-day's drive. How many fans are so diehard that they'd be willing to hop on a jet for an away game, not to mention several? Palo Alto or Seattle to Morgantown is a big stretch.

(03-27-2021 09:32 AM)colohank Wrote:  

(03-27-2021 08:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 10:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 09:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  Yes. The Pac 12 is last in revenue, ratings, exposure and management. So there is a possibility of a California secession from the Pac 12.

But in the context of this thread, can it happen by 2024?

One substantial difference between the UT/OU and tagalongs to the PAC and a Big 14 with California and Texas anchored divisions is that in an eight game conference schedule there's only the one cross division away game a year, so the time zone gap does not bit as hard.

But it doesn't seem likely that things can move far enough to get to that point by the Big12 rights expiration, so irrespective of whether it's plausible or not for 2035 and beyond, it doesn't seem very likely as a 2024 scenario.

I doubt that the Big 12 wants the baggage of the State of California and its internal politics. That being said, you could lobby, not for a California secession, but a breakup of the PAC 12 should their next round of media negotiations go well.

But you could try to pry privates USC and Stanford away from Cal and UCLA. Those two, plus Washington, Oregon, Utah and Colorado, would be an attractive package for ESPN since it gives them dominance over the two western timezones to go along with their existing assets everywhere but B1G territory (where they already have a share). When their existing network capabilities are merged with the LHN you get a pretty strong PSWC Network.

As you point out, travel issues aren't as big an issue as one might think. One football game a year cross division, and a divisionless basketball schedule with five fixed home and home opponents plus single games against the remaining 8 teams gives you an 18 game league schedule where there would only be two west coast trips a year and one mountain time zone trip.

I still don't think any of this is likely, but it isn't completely off the wall either, as it could give all 16 teams a raise and allows everyone to keep all their OOC rivalry games. It also results in a de facto P4.

Team travel isn't a big issue, but fan travel is. From the standpoint of a fan, a conference with a regional identity is preferable because folks from one school are more likely to show up and support their team at another if it's within a half-day's drive. How many fans are so diehard that they'd be willing to hop on a jet for an away game, not to mention several? Palo Alto or Seattle to Morgantown is a big stretch.

In this case it would almost be like two conferences, each with its own regional identity. I wouldn't expect much travel by B12 fans to PAC away games, but then, those are very infrequent - maybe as little as one every other year in football and four in basketball. Let's not forget that distances between PAC schools have always been great, and West Virginia is a pretty long way from Texas.