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Reseeding the men's March Madness 2021 field for the Sweet 16

Myron Metcalf; ESPN Staff Writer 3/23/2021

Here's how Metcalf would re-seed the 16 teams (predictions in parentheses):

1. Gonzaga (orig. 1 seed) plays Creighton (Gonzaga to Final Four)

2. Baylor (orig. 1 seed) plays Villanova (Baylor to Final Four)

3. Michigan (orig. 1 seed) plays FSU (Michigan to Final Four)

4. Alabama (orig. 2 seed) plays UCLA (Alabama to Final Four)

Alabama would also be predicted to advance based on original seedings.

5. Loyola (orig. 8 seed) plays Oregon St. (Loyola to Elite 8)

Loyola would also be predicted to advance based on original seedings.

6. Villanova (orig. 5 seed) plays Baylor

7. Florida St. (orig. 2 seed) plays Michigan

8. Syracuse (orig. 11 seed) plays Houston (Houston or Syracuse to Elite 8)*

Houston would be predicted to advance based on original seedings.

9. Houston (orig. 2 seed) plays Syracuse (Houston or Syracuse to Elite 8)*

10. Arkansas (orig. 3 seed) plays Oral Roberts (Arkansas or ORU to Elite 8)*

Arkansas would be predicted to advance based on original seedings.

11. Oral Roberts (orig. 15 seed) plays Arkansas (Arkansas or ORU to Elite 8)*

12. USC (orig. 6 seed) plays Oregon (USC or Oregon to Elite 8)*

No clear favorite, based on original seedings.

13. Oregon (orig. 7 seed) plays USC (USC or Oregon to Elite 8)*

14. Oregon St. (orig. 12 seed) plays Loyola

15. UCLA (orig. 11 seed) plays Alabama

16. Creighton (orig. 5 seed) plays Gonzaga

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Teams color-coded by conference; non-A5 and non-Big East teams highlighted in bright blue.

*Too close to call, according to Metcalf.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket...tournament

I'd have Michigan #1 right now. Villanova is too high at #6. The PAC schools are clustered too low.

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Jim Boeheim made a curious statement about his team. He said that they're not the type of team that (thrives, or does well, or likes to see) opponents taking a lot of three point shots against them, and that a lot of teams have scored a lot of points by taking 3-pt shots against them.

However, upon checking, it turns out that - while their opponents have definitely taken a lot of three-point shots against them - they've only hit a modest percentage of them (.319, to be precise). Syracuse have one of the strongest perimeter defenses in the nation (they're ranked #80 in that department) at defending against 3 pt. shots, but having prevented opponents from hitting more than 31.9% of their perimeter shots, they have a decent set of perimeter defenders.

Houston (#80) has hit a slightly higher percentage (.358) of their 3 pt shots than (#108) Syracuse has (.353), but they're ranked #5 in FG3% defense, having limited their opponents to hitting only 28.3% of their 3 point shots. Thus, they might have an advantage when it comes to perimeter shooting.

Syracuse's four strongest suits appear to be steals (#24th nationally), blocks (#12th), FT% (#15th), and pts scored (#70th). Their strongest suits, defensively, are opponent FG3% (#81st), and # of 2 point shots scored (#97th (75.9 ppg)). Their opponents have scored an average of 70.4 points against the Orange.

Houston's appear to be rebounding (#5th), blocks (#21st), steals (#35th), pts. scored (#45th; (77.4 ppg)); defensively, they rank among the top ten teams nationally in opponent FGA, FG%, 2P%, 3P%, and points against (#2nd; (57.9 ppg)).

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Both teams have scored a lot of points (77.4 and 75.9, respectively), and both are among the nation's leading teams in disrupting their opponents' offenses with steals and blocked shots.
These similarities suggest that it could be a pretty exciting game with a lot of transitions.

However, it appears that Houston might have the edge, defensively, since they've not only scored more ppg, but they've also demonstrated more prowess in causing opponents to miss shots, and have thus given up 12.5 fewer points per game.

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I'm trying to figure out how both Alabama and Michigan make the final 4 in this prediction since they are in the same region.