If you’ve followed my past posts much, you’ll know that I’m semi-obsessed with 1989-1990 as that was the decision making in that period that set off all future major realignment.

I devised a system to make a war game simulation for how realignment would go. As objectively as possible, I tried to determine what potential moves would have been considered and then determined odds. I then rolled 10 6-sided dice for each move, to determine the outcome. I decided to conduct each “year’s” realignment in 2 rounds. The first consisting of primary moves, and then a second, clean up round to try any resolve any oddities (i.e. conferences at 11 members that sought a 12th for a CCG.)

I also reserved the right to adjust the odds of a roll if I felt the outcomes of a prior roll or rolls dramatically altered the likelihood.

I plan on doing additional rounds to simulate later years that were big for realignment.

So here’s what happened in 1989-1990:

MOVE ODDS ROLL NEEDED ROLL OUTCOME
Penn St to Big 10 75% 32 38 SUCCESS
Penn St to ACC 5% 44 NULL
Penn St to Big East 20% 40 NULL
ND to Big 10 5% 44 29 FAIL
Nebraska to Big 10 10% 42 29 FAIL
Texas to Pac 10 15% 41 36 FAIL
Texas to SEC 20% 40 38 FAIL (by 2!)
Texas to Big 8 15% 41 33 FAIL
Texas A&M to SEC 25% 39 30 FAIL
Texas A&M to Big 8 15% 41 32 FAIL
Florida St to SEC 60% 34 42 SUCCESS
Florida St to ACC 40% 37 NULL
Oklahoma to SEC 10% 42 41 FAIL (by 1!)
Clemson to SEC 20% 40 25 FAIL
Miami to ACC this was the first one I felt I needed to change the odds on. I originally pegged the chances as 35% (roll of 38) but with Florida St going to the SEC, the ACC is going to find it much more urgent to secure a big time program so I upped it to 65% (roll of 33) turns out it didn’t matter—I rolled 41, which would have succeeded even at 35% SUCCESS
Miami to Big East 65% 38 NULL
Pitt, BC, and Cuse to ACC (fb only) 20% 40 24 FAIL
Colorado to PAC 10 15% 41 32 fail

So after Round 1 of 1989:
Big 10 gains Penn St
SEC gains Florida St
ACC gains Miami

Note how very nearly Texas and Oklahoma were to being grabbed by the SEC.

Round 2 of 1989-1990 was where things got weird, really really weird...


Arkansas to SEC 90% 28 35 SUCCESS
S Carolina to SEC 90% 28 NULL (SEC got their 12th member)
Syracuse to Big 10 15% 41 40 FAIL (by 1!)
Pittsburgh to Big 10 12% 42 43 SUCCESS (by 1!)
S Carolina to ACC 20% 40 34 FAIL

So considering Syracuse and Pittsburgh as Big 10 members was almost an afterthought. I tossed them in there on the off chance the Big 10 was itching to get a CCG going. I gasped when Syracuse very nearly was added, and then collapsed when Pittsburgh actually did succeed. This made me reconsider where to go from here since the BE only has 2 fb schools, 3 for the A-10, while the Metro has 7 (including SC, VT, and Louisville)

WVU (full) to Metro 85% 30 39 SUCCESS
WVU (fb only) to Metro 95% 27 NULL
Rutgers & Temple (full) to Metro 70% 33 34 SUCCESS (by 1!)
Rutgers & Temple (fb only) to Metro 85% 30 NULL
BC & Cuse (fb only) to Metro 75% 32 42 SUCCESS

So the SEC picks up Arkansas as its 12th
Pitt is the surprise 12th Big 10 member
The 7 member Metro adds the 3 A-10 schools as full members and 2 BE schools as fb only.

I should stipulate that I’m only focusing on the Power conferences. I love the G5 and I know that non-fb conferences are going to end up being impacted but this would just be too complicated if I tried to track all of them too.

(03-16-2021 09:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Round 2 of 1989-1990 was where things got weird, really really weird...


Arkansas to SEC 90% 28 35 SUCCESS
S Carolina to SEC 90% 28 NULL (SEC got their 12th member)
Syracuse to Big 10 15% 41 40 FAIL (by 1!)
Pittsburgh to Big 10 12% 42 43 SUCCESS (by 1!)
S Carolina to ACC 20% 40 34 FAIL

So considering Syracuse and Pittsburgh as Big 10 members was almost an afterthought. I tossed them in there on the off chance the Big 10 was itching to get a CCG going. I gasped when Syracuse very nearly was added, and then collapsed when Pittsburgh actually did succeed. This made me reconsider where to go from here since the BE only has 2 fb schools, 3 for the A-10, while the Metro has 7 (including SC, VT, and Louisville)

WVU (full) to Metro 85% 30 39 SUCCESS
WVU (fb only) to Metro 95% 27 NULL
Rutgers & Temple (full) to Metro 70% 33 34 SUCCESS (by 1!)
Rutgers & Temple (fb only) to Metro 85% 30 NULL
BC & Cuse (fb only) to Metro 75% 32 42 SUCCESS

So the SEC picks up Arkansas as its 12th
Pitt is the surprise 12th Big 10 member
The 7 member Metro adds the 3 A-10 schools as full members and 2 BE schools as fb only.

Missing out on FSU in 1990 would have been bad for the ACC.

If both the SEC and BIG are at 12 members (and raking-in $$$ from a conference championship game), then the ACC would have been pressured to follow more quickly.

USC, VT and Syracuse would be the logical choices to get the ACC to 12 members (with greater football focus). BC, Rutgers and West Virginia would also be seriously considered. USF, Louisville and Cincinnati would be dark horses. Notre Dame would somehow enter the discussion.

When you get yourself to the mid-2000s, make sure that the ACC doesn’t enter consecutive horrible media contracts. In the fantasy world, the media deals and conference commissioners should be equalized.

Right—in my next round I’m definitely going to consider VT, SC, BC, and Cuse as ACC expansion schools. Rutgers and WVU probably too, at much lower odds and only if they fail to secure 3 or the 4 more likely targets.

We’ll probably get a Big 12 in the next round, it’s probably just a question of which 12.

I’m also going to give the Texas schools to the SEC and Texas/Colorado to the PAC 10 again.

This scenario’s Big Ten and SEC are much stronger that the real ones at this time. Florida St is a huge upgrade over SC and while Pittsburgh isn’t a stellar add, the Big Ten is going to have the exposure and cash from a CCG a full two decades earlier.

The ACC is a lot weaker, and the schools stuck in the Metro are far less well off had they been in a Big East anchored by Miami.

I’d like to point out the huge impact that the Metro-Great Midwest schism not occurring has:

Both the MCC and Sunbelt remain untouched

MCC: Dayton, Xavier, Evansville, Butler, Notre Dame, Loyola (Chi), Marquette, St Louis

Now that’s a nice looking Midwestern parochial league! all that’s missing is indy DePaul.

Sunbelt: VCU, ODU, Charlotte, Jacksonville, USF, UAB, USA, WKU

And that also means no merger with the American South:

American South: Ark St, LA Tech, ULL, UTPA, Lamar, UNO, UCF

Now I wouldn’t be surprised if the TAAC and American South don’t end up effectively swapping UCF for UALR and/or UTSA in the very early 90s.

I also think the American South is on a course to sponsor football, with a mix of full members and fb affiliates around 1996 with LA Tech, ULL, Ark St, UNT, UAB, UCF, ULM, and maybe Tulsa and/or ECU if they aren’t playing somewhere else.

——

Then there’s the A-10. Losing Penn St, Rutgers, Temple, and WVU had an absolutely gutting impact, taking the 10 team league down to 6. I imagine LaSalle and Fordham would have easily joined in say 1991 rather that 1995, but I don’t know that Xavier and Dayton do. Both would be happily in a really nice Midwestern conference and Dayton wouldn’t be facing being left out of the C-USA merger.

Be careful or you'll have 16-team megaconferences by 1992. I think one facet of expansion is the TV deals. These conferences are pooling their TV rights for the first time in the wake of 1986 and signing deals for their content. The expansions coincide with these deals and, once signed, are unlikely to be reopened in 7-10 years, unless a Big Fish comes available.

The Big Ten (at 12), the SEC (at 12), and the ACC (at 9) may now be done. We still have to see how the SWC/B8 shake out, and while the SEC could double dip, I don't know that the playing field has changed enough in 1 year for A&M/Texas to reassess their decision not to join.

(03-18-2021 06:22 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Be careful or you'll have 16-team megaconferences by 1992. I think one facet of expansion is the TV deals. These conferences are pooling their TV rights for the first time in the wake of 1986 and signing deals for their content. The expansions coincide with these deals and, once signed, are unlikely to be reopened in 7-10 years, unless a Big Fish comes available.

The Big Ten (at 12), the SEC (at 12), and the ACC (at 9) may now be done. We still have to see how the SWC/B8 shake out, and while the SEC could double dip, I don't know that the playing field has changed enough in 1 year for A&M/Texas to reassess their decision not to join.

I’m going to fast forward to 1994 for my next round. That was when the changes that went into effect in 1996 were made.

I’ll let the ACC take a stab at going to 12 with low odds (as we approach 2003, I’ll up those odds)

I’ll let the SEC take a low probability stab at TAMU and a slightly higher one for Texas and Colorado to the PAC 10.

You got to take an ultra low shot at ND to the Big Ten too.

I expect a Big 12 to form—it’s just a matter of who.

I had some thoughts about Notre Dame and how this simulated 1989-1990 alignment impacts them. I think it puts them in an incredibly stable, favorable position.

For Olympic sports and basketball they are in an incredibly stable MCC that never gets ravaged by the formation of the Great Midwest. They’re playing in a bunch of Midwestern cities with large Catholic populations: Chicago, St Louis, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis. Evansville and Dayton aren’t exciting metropolises but both programs are well supported.

I think there is still potential for the Irish to eventually end up in the Big East but at this point the BE still has 8 members and this was not an era where there was pressure for basketball leagues to be huge. If the BE loses BC and/or Syracuse in a later round that’s when I see the BE making a western move and going to 10 or 12 members.

As far as fort all goes, ND has it made:

September is Big Ten month: Michigan, Purdue, Michigan St, and Pittsburgh

They have the deal with USC and Stanford where they play one of them in South Bend in October and the other in CA the final week of the season.

Navy of course is a November staple.

I’m guessing they also play BC and Syracuse both in November and I’m sure the Metro is more than accommodating because the HOME games against ND will be attractive for tv.

That’s 9 games per year pretty much set in stone. They’ve got 2 (and eventually 3 games) to work with to schedule other opponents, likely for October dates, which ought to be easy work for an AD to fill.

I’ve debated for a while whether or not to finish this, due to low interest, but ultimately I decided to soldier on. The next big realignment to look at is 1994 (those moves went into place for the 1996 season).

MOVE ODDS ROLL NEEDED ROLL OUTCOME
ND to Big Ten 5% 44 31 FAIL
Texas to PAC 10 5% 44 38 FAIL
Colorado to PAC 10 8% 43 35 FAIL
Texas to SEC 10% 42 31 FAIL
Texas A&M to SEC 15% 41 38 FAIL (by 3)
Texas to Big 8 90% 28 33 SUCCESS
Texas A&M to Big 8 90% 28 30 SUCCESS (but only by 2!)
Texas Tech to Big 8 80% 31 31 SUCCESS (spot on!)
Baylor to Big 8 67% 33 28 FAIL
BYU to Big 8 15% 41 42 SUCCESS (by only 1!)
Houston to Big 8 15% 41 NULL
VT to ACC 85% 30 38 SUCCESS
South Carolina to ACC 80% 31 44 SUCCESS
ND to ACC 5% 44 31 FAIL
Boston College to ACC 67% 33 37 SUCCESS
Syracuse to ACC 20% 40 NULL
WVU to ACC 10% 42 NULL

So we get a Big 12 but not the one you think. There’s less enthusiasm for the Longhorn little siblings—TTU gets in by the skin of their teeth and Baylor is left out in favor of BYU.

The ACC also feels pressure to go to 12. In state schools VT and SC get taken care of and BC gets added as a market grab.

The Metro loses 2 full members and a football affiliate, dropping them to 8 plus fb affiliate Syracuse.

The SWC is down to 5 schools.

For the 1994 clean up round I first had to decide if the SWC was going to rebuild:

10% 42 38 FAIL

So:

Houston to Metro 90% 29 30 SUCCESS (by 1!)

For simplicity sake, I paired the rest:

Baylor & TCU: 67% Metro/33% WAC 33 42 SUCCESS (to Metro)
SMU & Rice: 60% Metro/40% WAC 34 35 SUCCESS (the pair barely slips into the Metro)

So we now have a tweener league with the Metro:

East: Syracuse*, Rutgers, Temple, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, Memphis
West: USM, Tulane, Houston, Rice, Baylor, TCU, SMU

All in all, I think we begin the BCS era with just 5 BCS conferences (and 3 at large spots) while the WAC and Metro champions have to settle for facing each other in the Liberty Bowl.

So here’s where we are. I’m taking some liberties with the non BCS leagues since I didn’t actually simulate them.

Big Ten North: Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan St
Big Ten South: Penn St, Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois

SEC East: Georgia, Florida, Florida St, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SEC West: Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, Miss St, LSU, Arkansas

ACC North: BC, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, Duke
ACC South: NC St, WF, Clemson, SC, GT, Miami

Big 12 North: Iowa St, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas St, Colorado
Big 12 South: BYU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

PAC 10: Wash, WSU, Ore, OSU, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Ariz, ASU

Metro North: Syracuse*, Rutgers, Temple, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis
Metro South: USM, Tulane, Rice, Houston, Baylor, SMU, TCU

WAC East: UTEP, UNM, Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming, Utah
WAC West: UNLV, Nevada, San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Hawaii

MAC: Kent St, Akron, Ohio, Miami, Bowling Green, Toledo, EMU, CMU, WMU, Ball St

I then see the American South being the catch all conference for all the other Independents left out there:

American South: Utah St*, NMSU, Tulsa*, UNT, Ark St, LA Tech, ULL, ULM*, UAB*, UCF*, ECU*
+ non fb: Lamar, UNO, & UTPA (2 yrs away from dropping out)

American South makes the shrewd move to grab NMSU and recent returnee to DI-A UNT as full members. The Big West is out of the football business and Idaho and Boise St have no where to move up to.

Indy: ND, Army, Navy, NIU (will move to MAC in 1997 along with Marshall, Buffalo to follow in 1998)

In the Big East, they are down to 7, so they raid the MCC for ND, DePaul, and Marquette.

In 2005, I see a new FBS league coming on the scene with some recent move ups and a few schools who were previously American South affiliates:

USF*, UCF, FIU, FAU, Troy, UAB*, MTSU, ECU (I see USF and UAB retaining their Sunbelt membership for other sports).

You have a Big 12 with only 11 teams? Why wouldn't they just call themselves the Big 11 then? Would they even have divisions if they can't have a conference championship game (at that time there was no known provision for a conference championship game with just 11 teams)?

(04-10-2021 08:41 PM)schmolik Wrote:  You have a Big 12 with only 11 teams? Why wouldn't they just call themselves the Big 11 then? Would they even have divisions if they can't have a conference championship game (at that time there was no known provision for a conference championship game with just 11 teams)?

Good catch—I forgot to list Colorado.

I really thought this little exercise would get more interest.

Call it the Pax-BCS but in bizzaro expansion world the BCS 5 have remained unchanged from 1996 to 2010.

58 schools and Independent ND make up college football’s upper echelons. The conferences are as follows:

Big Ten: same, except they caught the CCG bug and added Pittsburgh with Penn St.

SEC: they have Florida St instead of SC.

ACC: they have SC instead of Florida St.

Big 12: they have BYU instead of Baylor.

PAC 10: unchanged

below them is a 14-team Metro Conference and 12-team WAC. Then you’ve got the MAC (which is the same), and somehow the American South is in business and, probably around 2005, so is the Atlantic Sun.

I’ve simmed the great Larry Scott expansion of 2010 with the help of my 3-yr old and will post the results tomorrow.

(04-17-2021 07:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I really thought this little exercise would get more interest.

Call it the Pax-BCS but in bizzaro expansion world the BCS 5 have remained unchanged from 1996 to 2010.

58 schools and Independent ND make up college football’s upper echelons. The conferences are as follows:

Big Ten: same, except they caught the CCG bug and added Pittsburgh with Penn St.

SEC: they have Florida St instead of SC.

ACC: they have SC instead of Florida St.

Big 12: they have BYU instead of Baylor.

PAC 10: unchanged

below them is a 14-team Metro Conference and 12-team WAC. Then you’ve got the MAC (which is the same), and somehow the American South is in business and, probably around 2005, so is the Atlantic Sun.

I’ve simmed the great Larry Scott expansion of 2010 with the help of my 3-yr old and will post the results tomorrow.

So far I like this a lot better than the current state of affairs with Penn State and Pittsburgh, Florida and Florida State, and South Carolina and Clemson together.

I’ll call this the Larry Scott round. It’s 2010 and Tennis Larry is the only BCS commissioner without a CCG. For this round, I tested to see if the PAC 16 came to fruition. I also did a roll for ND to the Big Ten because...well why not. I felt that, having had a CCG since 1992, the Big Ten would not be an aggressive player in expansion in this round, nor would anyone else already comfortably at 12:

MOVE ODDS ROLL NEEDED ROLL OUTCOME
Notre Dame to Big Ten 5% 44 43 Fail (by 1!)
Colorado to PAC 10 75% 32 37 Success
Texas A&M to PAC 10 20% 40 34 Fail
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, & Oklahoma St to PAC 10 40% 37 31 Fail

——
CLEAN UP ROUND
Utah to PAC 10 90% 28 30 Success (by 2!)
TCU to Big 12 90% 28 29 Success (by 1!)

So for those of you who like symmetry, for at least the 2011 season, the BCS 5 are all at 12 members and play a CCG.

I’m shocked that ND to the Big 10 almost happened. I very nearly set the odds at 8%, not 5%, and had a done so, the Irish would be the 13th Big Ten member.

The next expansion year I’ll simulate will be 2011. While I think the chances are much less likely, I think Texas might still throw some weight around to the chagrin of Nebraska and TAMU and the Big Ten and SEC will be market giddy.

As far as non BCS back fill goes:

I see the WAC adding either Utah St or FCS Power Boise St (Boise St didn’t have a Big West to join in this 1996)

For the Metro, they could replace TCU with any one of a number of schools—Tulsa, USF, UCF, ECU, etc.

I see UTSA and Texas St transitioning from FCS to the American South in 2011 or 2012ish.

Lost in all the moves was the Big East non football status. Pittsburgh left way back in 1989 and Miami never joins, leaving the Old Big East with eight members and Penn State isn't a possibility. Boston College left the Big East for the ACC in 1994 according to this simulation and assuming no backfills they would have had just seven members.

Syracuse is listed as a Metro member for football only so the assumption is they stay in the BE for men's basketball and other sports. Notre Dame is a candidate and fit in well with the mostly Catholic Big East schools and Notre Dame does like East Coast exposure but the only remaining 1-A (they hadn't renamed it FBS/FCS yet) football school at the time is Syracuse (Pittsburgh and Boston College are gone, UConn hadn't upgraded yet). Around the mid 1990's if football isn't a factor and no BC, Massachusetts would have to be an attractive candidate to make up for losing the Boston/Massachusetts area and keeps the Big East "Eastern". Maybe they would have grabbed Xavier before the Atlantic 10 did.

(04-18-2021 02:47 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Lost in all the moves was the Big East non football status. Pittsburgh left way back in 1989 and Miami never joins, leaving the Old Big East with eight members and Penn State isn't a possibility. Boston College left the Big East for the ACC in 1994 according to this simulation and assuming no backfills they would have had just seven members.

Syracuse is listed as a Metro member for football only so the assumption is they stay in the BE for men's basketball and other sports. Notre Dame is a candidate and fit in well with the mostly Catholic Big East schools and Notre Dame does like East Coast exposure but the only remaining 1-A (they hadn't renamed it FBS/FCS yet) football school at the time is Syracuse (Pittsburgh and Boston College are gone, UConn hadn't upgraded yet). Around the mid 1990's if football isn't a factor and no BC, Massachusetts would have to be an attractive candidate to make up for losing the Boston/Massachusetts area and keeps the Big East "Eastern". Maybe they would have grabbed Xavier before the Atlantic 10 did.

Right—no Big East football. They are a dedicated Eastern basketball league until 1996 (with the decisions happening in 1994) when they become an Eastern and Midwestern basketball league with the admittance of Notre Dame, Marquette, and DePaul. I have to think that this set up, with UConn, Providence, St John’s, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Villanova, and Georgetown is a pretty comfortable set up for the Irish.

UConn never has FBS aspirations because there is no dream conference for them to slide right into.

Syracuse, WVU, and Rutgers football are all the biggest casualties of this timeline (and Baylor too). Alternate reality Boeheim keeps the Orange out of the ACC trapping them in high mid-major purgatory in the Metro.

If alternate reality ACC suffers a loss, I think Syracuse is at the front of the line to fill the hole but if alt reality Texas and alt reality TAMU work out their differences then there probably is no additional realignment for the rest of the decade...or ever.

I have to think that spending 2 decades in a sub-BCS league would be severely detrimental to programs like Syracuse and WVU.

(04-18-2021 08:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(04-18-2021 02:47 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Lost in all the moves was the Big East non football status. Pittsburgh left way back in 1989 and Miami never joins, leaving the Old Big East with eight members and Penn State isn't a possibility. Boston College left the Big East for the ACC in 1994 according to this simulation and assuming no backfills they would have had just seven members.

Syracuse is listed as a Metro member for football only so the assumption is they stay in the BE for men's basketball and other sports. Notre Dame is a candidate and fit in well with the mostly Catholic Big East schools and Notre Dame does like East Coast exposure but the only remaining 1-A (they hadn't renamed it FBS/FCS yet) football school at the time is Syracuse (Pittsburgh and Boston College are gone, UConn hadn't upgraded yet). Around the mid 1990's if football isn't a factor and no BC, Massachusetts would have to be an attractive candidate to make up for losing the Boston/Massachusetts area and keeps the Big East "Eastern". Maybe they would have grabbed Xavier before the Atlantic 10 did.

Right—no Big East football. They are a dedicated Eastern basketball league until 1996 (with the decisions happening in 1994) when they become an Eastern and Midwestern basketball league with the admittance of Notre Dame, Marquette, and DePaul. I have to think that this set up, with UConn, Providence, St John’s, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Villanova, and Georgetown is a pretty comfortable set up for the Irish.

UConn never has FBS aspirations because there is no dream conference for them to slide right into.

Syracuse, WVU, and Rutgers football are all the biggest casualties of this timeline (and Baylor too). Alternate reality Boeheim keeps the Orange out of the ACC trapping them in high mid-major purgatory in the Metro.

If alternate reality ACC suffers a loss, I think Syracuse is at the front of the line to fill the hole but if alt reality Texas and alt reality TAMU work out their differences then there probably is no additional realignment for the rest of the decade...or ever.

I have to think that spending 2 decades in a sub-BCS league would be severely detrimental to programs like Syracuse and WVU.

They would survive. Louisville did, Cincinnati is and is actually thriving.