I compared us to Oral Roberts to show the difference, but in no shape or form should that ever come up when looking at lost wins, like it is in this thread. The better comparison is to look at an average team and the difference it makes; which I did. Obviously, free throw shooting and turnovers killed hurt us, but I don't think you can go on a game by game basis and say if we make whatever more free throws we win.

What is reasonable is to wonder what our record would have been with Williams the entire season, with the new offense, and with the players buying in. Under that scenario, even with lousy free throw shooting and turnovers...

- We don't lose to Western Kentucky, VCU, Auburn or Tulsa.
- Worst case scenario, we might lose to Houston 3 times, and SMU
- We have a better than average chance at beating Houston at home and Wichita on the road

So in the end, even with the free throws and turnovers, the team that we have today, would have finished the season 21-5 at worst, would be ranked in the top 25, and would be looking at a 4-7 seed right now.

(03-15-2021 10:13 PM)BIGDTiger Wrote:  This is how I break down every game, win or lose, to my high school basketball team. I want them to understand the importance of efficiency and taking care of the small things. Defense, rebounds, turnovers and free throws. In the end you can teach kids offenses and special schemes and play after play. But if you are not teaching them to treasure the basketball and every position as though it is the last in the game, you will end up with high turnovers and low percentage shots and missed free throws.

We went 16-8

Some have said that we’d have been undefeated had we just shot free throws better. Let’s look at this.

The best team in the nation at free throws was Oral Roberts, at 82%. We shot 62%. Reviewing each of our losses, had we hit 82% from free throws, here’s how our 8 losses would have turned out. This doesn’t take into account missing the front end of 1/1’s.

Give us 82% from free throws in each loss.

75-69 vs WKU. We’d have scored 3 more points. Still an L.

70-59 vs VCU. 2 more points. Still an L.

74-71 vs Auburn. 8 more points. We win by 5.

56-49 vs Tulsa. 7 more points. Toss up. But for giggles, give us the W in OT.

58-57 vs Tulsa. 3 more points. We win by 2.

67-65 vs SMU. 2 more points. Toss up. But for giggles, give us the L in OT.

67-64 vs Houston. 8 more points. We win by 5.

76-74 Houston. 7 more points, we win by 5.

Free throws alone would have won us 5 more games for a record of 21-3 going into the conference championship game.

Now, let’s review the 4 games that we still would have lost or been a toss up/OT scenario despite shooting a hypothetical nations best 82%.

We know turnovers are a part of the game. So we just want to minimize them. So let’s set an acceptable mark of 10 turnovers per game. In the games below, after factoring in 82% from free throws, if we cut our turnovers to 10, and scored a 2 point shot on 50% of those extra possessions, what would the results have been? And then take away 2 baskets from the other team because they’d have less scoring opportunities due to less turnovers by the Tigers.

The results below already factor in hitting 82% from free throw.

Losing 75-72 vs WKU. Only 10 turnovers in this game. Same result.

Losing 70-59 vs VCU. 19 turnovers. Take out 9. Scoring 2 points on 50% of those extra nine possessions=9 points. We still lose 70-68. But factoring in they scored points off of turnovers, if you take away just 4 points they scored off turnovers, we win by 2. 68-66. An 11 point loss turns Into a 2 point victory by improving on free throws and turnovers. A 13 point swing.

Tied 56-56 vs Tulsa. 20 turnovers. Cut it to 10. Score on 50% of those extra 10 possessions, you get 10 extra points and take away 2 of their buckets off turnovers, We win 66-52. A seven point loss turns into a 14 point win by improving on free throws and turnovers. A 21 point swing.

Tied 67-67 vs SMU. 17 turnovers. Take away seven and score on 50% of those. Seven extra points. Take away two of their buckets off turnovers, we win 74 to 63. A 2 point loss turns into an 11 point victory. A 13 point swing.

So without even talking about giving up offensive rebounds. Just by improving in free throws and turnovers this team could have been 23-1 going into the conference championship game. Western Kentucky was by far our worst game of the season.

Of course these are a lot of if &’s and buts, and we know kids are going to have bad games and mess up. But this just goes to show that no matter how many X’s & O’s you know, it always comes down to the basics and fundamentals in basketball.

This is in by no means a knock on Penny Hardaway’s coaching. I keep hearing people say he is not an X & O coach… I actually disagree. I think he makes great adjustments in games and has really good game plans. I personally believe he coached an amazing season. Especially that last game. During the off-season they need to work on free throws and understanding the importance of protecting the ball and limiting turnovers. If this team can stay together and understand these concepts they can be the best team in the nation next year.

As a coach you realize that a team shooting 82% is very rare. Only two teams shot 82% or more for the season this year. Your point is well taken and I did something similar in another thread but looked at what would be reasonable with close losses of 2-3 points. if you are 10 of 15 then 80% only gets you 2 more free throws making you 12 of 15. They isn't and rarely has been us.

Free throws to me were a bigger issue than turnovers.

(03-18-2021 02:43 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  Free throws to me were a bigger issue than turnovers.

That’s true. Because of the pace and type of play, there are going to be more turnovers.

(03-18-2021 02:43 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  Free throws to me were a bigger issue than turnovers.

(03-18-2021 06:17 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-18-2021 02:43 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  Free throws to me were a bigger issue than turnovers.

That’s true. Because of the pace and type of play, there are going to be more turnovers.

Boogie gets close to 80% from Foul line.....He will be a top 10 pick

(03-19-2021 10:16 AM)thagr82008 Wrote:  

(03-18-2021 02:43 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  Free throws to me were a bigger issue than turnovers.

(03-18-2021 06:17 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-18-2021 02:43 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  Free throws to me were a bigger issue than turnovers.

That’s true. Because of the pace and type of play, there are going to be more turnovers.

Boogie gets close to 80% from Foul line.....He will be a top 10 pick

Yes, all that is standing in the way of Boogie being a top 10 pick is making 10 more free throws over the course of a season, and raising his scoring average 0.6 points per game.

(03-18-2021 06:17 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-18-2021 02:43 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  Free throws to me were a bigger issue than turnovers.

That’s true. Because of the pace and type of play, there are going to be more turnovers.

I agree 100%. Some of the turnovers were exasperating, to be sure. Like Boogie's lackadaisical pass just before halftime Saturday that killed our last second play, and gave Houston an easy layup. We have probably 1-2 of those a game, more than the norm.

But as long as we still continue to turn the other team over at a higher than average rate, then our own to's are less of an issue. I think there were 2 games that our turnover margin really cost us - both Tulsa losses. We were higher than normal and they just didn't turn it over.

Surprising fact: We are +1 on turnover margin for the year.

(03-19-2021 10:49 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-18-2021 06:17 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-18-2021 02:43 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  Free throws to me were a bigger issue than turnovers.

That’s true. Because of the pace and type of play, there are going to be more turnovers.

I agree 100%. Some of the turnovers were exasperating, to be sure. Like Boogie's lackadaisical pass just before halftime Saturday that killed our last second play, and gave Houston an easy layup. We have probably 1-2 of those a game, more than the norm.

But as long as we still continue to turn the other team over at a higher than average rate, then our own to's are less of an issue. I think there were 2 games that our turnover margin really cost us - both Tulsa losses. We were higher than normal and they just didn't turn it over.

Surprising fact: We are +1 on turnover margin for the year.

And guess what? We foul a lot, but we also have a ton of possessions where we play great defense and don't foul, which lead to bad shots, especially bad 3 point shots by our opponents.

In conference games we had the 2nd highest field goal percentage, and were #2 in field goal percentage defense. We were #1 in 3 point percentage and #1 defensively. We had a rebounding margin of 7.8 per game and lead the conference in steals.

Our defense was elite by any measure known to man.

I just hope these guys learned something.

(03-19-2021 12:28 PM)Claw Wrote:  I just hope these guys learned something.

Why would you hope? You didn't notice the difference after Tulsa?