(03-17-2021 05:27 AM)HappyAppy Wrote:  

(03-15-2021 12:40 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Murkowski has gotten elected as an Independent before, and she may well do it again. But it wasn’t easy the first time and it won’t be easy this time.

Good on Trump for opposing her, and for telling the NRSC (speaking of deadweight!!) where to get off. We’ll see what happens.

Alaska switched to an open primary. Top 4, regardless of party, get on ballot. Also switching to ranked-choice voting in general.

Won’t necessarily be a cake walk but it should be much, much easier than last time.

I gotta think Ranked Choice favors Lisa M

Dems can list her as their #2 Choice

(03-17-2021 06:46 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(03-17-2021 05:27 AM)HappyAppy Wrote:  

(03-15-2021 12:40 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Murkowski has gotten elected as an Independent before, and she may well do it again. But it wasn’t easy the first time and it won’t be easy this time.

Good on Trump for opposing her, and for telling the NRSC (speaking of deadweight!!) where to get off. We’ll see what happens.

Alaska switched to an open primary. Top 4, regardless of party, get on ballot. Also switching to ranked-choice voting in general.

Won’t necessarily be a cake walk but it should be much, much easier than last time.

I gotta think Ranked Choice favors Lisa M

Dems can list her as their #2 Choice

Absolutely.

Seems like a pretty narrow pathway for another Republican winning this seat. If she loses the seat somehow, I think it would most likely be to a moderate Democrat.

Under old rules, Palin runs and probably wins pretty easily. Now it might almost be better for Murkowski for someone that polarizing to run against her.

(03-17-2021 07:33 AM)HappyAppy Wrote:  

(03-17-2021 06:46 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(03-17-2021 05:27 AM)HappyAppy Wrote:  

(03-15-2021 12:40 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Murkowski has gotten elected as an Independent before, and she may well do it again. But it wasn’t easy the first time and it won’t be easy this time.

Good on Trump for opposing her, and for telling the NRSC (speaking of deadweight!!) where to get off. We’ll see what happens.

Alaska switched to an open primary. Top 4, regardless of party, get on ballot. Also switching to ranked-choice voting in general.

Won’t necessarily be a cake walk but it should be much, much easier than last time.

I gotta think Ranked Choice favors Lisa M

Dems can list her as their #2 Choice

Absolutely.

Seems like a pretty narrow pathway for another Republican winning this seat. If she loses the seat somehow, I think it would most likely be to a moderate Democrat.

Under old rules, Palin runs and probably wins pretty easily. Now it might almost be better for Murkowski for someone that polarizing to run against her.

Yes it will be very difficult under ranked choice

In a 4 way race its highly probable she makes it to the next round

In a 3 way race you're looking at Lisa M, vs. Palin GOPer, vs Dem.
She would be the 2nd choice for both sides
Whichever GOP-Dem side finished 3rd their votes would transfer to Lisa M for the 2 way race.

In a 2 way race its either

Lisa M v a Dem, which she would likely win, see Susan Collins

Or

Lisa M v a Palin GOPer, which she would likely win with Dem support

The best chance to beat her under a ranked choice system is for Lisa M to finish 3rd in the 3 way portion of the race.
Possible but not likely