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The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
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OscarWildeCat Offline
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Post: #1
The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
Much has been said about the possibility of a better seed for the WAC champion once expansion takes place. I came across a summary of the winning percentage by seed since 1985 which underscores the significance of moving from a 15-16 seed to a 12-13 seed.


#1 Seed vs #16 Seed - 139-1 - 99.29% Winning Percentage #1 Seed
#2 Seed vs #15 Seed - 132-8 - 94.29% Winning Percentage #2 Seed
#3 Seed vs #14 Seed - 119-21 - 85.00% Winning Percentage #3 Seed
#4 Seed vs #13 Seed - 111-28 - 79.29% Winning Percentage #4 Seed
#5 Seed vs #12 Seed - 90-47 - 64.29% Winning Percentage #5 Seed
#6 Seed vs #11 Seed - 88-51 - 62.86% Winning Percentage #6 Seed
#7 Seed vs #10 Seed - 85-52 - 60.71% Winning Percentage #7 Seed
#8 Seed vs #9 Seed - 69-71 - 49.28% Winning Percentage #8 Seed

Basically moving from a 14 seed to a 12 seed improves the chances of winning by 20%, from 15 to 35%, or 1:5 to 1:3.
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2021 07:05 AM by OscarWildeCat.)
03-15-2021 07:04 AM
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gleadley Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-15-2021 07:04 AM)OscarWildeCat Wrote:  Much has been said about the possibility of a better seed for the WAC champion once expansion takes place. I came across a summary of the winning percentage by seed since 1985 which underscores the significance of moving from a 15-16 seed to a 12-13 seed.


#1 Seed vs #16 Seed - 139-1 - 99.29% Winning Percentage #1 Seed
#2 Seed vs #15 Seed - 132-8 - 94.29% Winning Percentage #2 Seed
#3 Seed vs #14 Seed - 119-21 - 85.00% Winning Percentage #3 Seed
#4 Seed vs #13 Seed - 111-28 - 79.29% Winning Percentage #4 Seed
#5 Seed vs #12 Seed - 90-47 - 64.29% Winning Percentage #5 Seed
#6 Seed vs #11 Seed - 88-51 - 62.86% Winning Percentage #6 Seed
#7 Seed vs #10 Seed - 85-52 - 60.71% Winning Percentage #7 Seed
#8 Seed vs #9 Seed - 69-71 - 49.28% Winning Percentage #8 Seed

Basically moving from a 14 seed to a 12 seed improves the chances of winning by 20%, from 15 to 35%, or 1:5 to 1:3.

NMSU has had a 13 seed or better 7 of their last 11 tournament appearances, yet walked away without a win. That's not a swipe at the Aggies, because winning tournament games is really hard.

I'm less interested in the tournament seeding than I am to see how having more quality teams in the conference pushes the level of recruiting, coaching, and play across the entire WAC. If the residual impact of those things means we have more teams who are better prepared to compete on the national stage, then it has all been worth it!
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2021 10:05 AM by gleadley.)
03-15-2021 10:02 AM
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DetroitKat Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
I don't see this becoming a 2-bid league, so I think the real money would be in getting additional units by advancing who is placed in the tournament.
03-15-2021 10:10 AM
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Todor Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
I dont either. It will just be more teams battling for one spot, and the spoils being spread even thinner. The financial interests of the powers that be are too strong.

That's why the net system introduced these ridiculous tiers that only favor themselves. Its all about keeping teams out.
03-17-2021 07:58 PM
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NMSUPistolPete Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
The only way to get multiple NCAA bids is to start beating programs outside the WAC. That starts by making the WAC a much tougher conference to win. First off, the Texas Four are shedding themselves of the bottom feeders in the Southland Conference. At the same time, Chicago State has decided leave the WAC. There are less creampuffs for the top tier WAC programs, and the incoming Texas Four, to feast on. Now, in order to win the WAC, there is going to be an arms race in recruiting. Initially, it will not be acknowledged by the NCAA tournament selection committee as the WAC schools beat up on each other and take on more conference losses. However, at the same time this is happening, each school should be more formidable to beat outside the conference. The key is to start beat P5 schools on neutral sites i.e. the holiday tournaments. Once this start to happen the national media will start to take note. This is the start of how the WAC improves its' NCAA seeding and hopefully increase it amount of bids awarded to the conference as the WAC produces more teams of strength. It will take time and not happen over night, but maybe 5 years down the road, the WAC will start to look more like the Missouri Valley Conference strength wise. We will see.
03-17-2021 08:34 PM
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Todor Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
All true. But the same as most conferences are trying to do. And schools don't stick together, so as soon as someone can jump ship, they do. Numerous leagues have built themselves up, only to take a big dip when schools leave. And that's why I'm an advocate of actual Western schools where the opportunities to leave are much fewer. It can still happen, but its one thing the league can do to try to minimize schools bailing.
03-17-2021 08:48 PM
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DoubleRSU Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
A 25-4 MVC team is playing in the first 4 and that barely got the MVC 2 bids. Anyone who thinks the WAC is getting 2 anytime soon is...... not very intelligent.
03-18-2021 09:08 AM
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NMSUPistolPete Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
Well, to add to Todor's argument for a lack of stability at the Mid-Major level, the MVC was solidly getting multiple bids into that NCAA Tournament until Creighton and Wichita State left the fold. It has taken the MVC some time to build up to a mult-bid conference again.
03-18-2021 09:20 AM
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Todor Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-18-2021 09:08 AM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  A 25-4 MVC team is playing in the first 4 and that barely got the MVC 2 bids. Anyone who thinks the WAC is getting 2 anytime soon is...... not very intelligent.

And the MVC usually floats around the 8-10 range in their average RPI/NET rankings.

At best, and I mean absolute best, the WAC could potentially have a fluke year with 2 unusually strong teams and get 2 teams in, that one fluke time, without any indication of it becoming a trend. It has happened a handful of times in some lower conferences. The Southern Conference comes to mind, but I haven't researched it to verify. But I believe while Davidson was having some success, another team from the SoCon snuck in once. And Davidson left shortly after that time frame.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2021 09:25 AM by Todor.)
03-18-2021 09:22 AM
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OhioBoilermaker Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
The best hope for two WAC teams in the tournament is tournament expansion.
03-18-2021 09:38 AM
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Todor Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-18-2021 09:38 AM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  The best hope for two WAC teams in the tournament is tournament expansion.

Yes, if all conferences get 2 teams, that would do it alright.
03-18-2021 09:41 AM
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FirstandGoal Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-18-2021 09:41 AM)Todor Wrote:  
(03-18-2021 09:38 AM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  The best hope for two WAC teams in the tournament is tournament expansion.

Yes, if all conferences get 2 teams, that would do it alright.

The real hope in multiple tournament bids is in winning first round games and eventually getting higher seeds. While I believe all regular season conference champions from all conferences should get an invite before any conference fifth place or lower regular season team gets an at large bid, the NCAA and TV money will not let that happen. They want the historical big name schools in no matter what. To be honest The NCAA and TV would be happy if basketball was split like football and they did not cover the WAC, SLC, Pioneer of other lesser conferences.
03-18-2021 10:00 AM
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OhioBoilermaker Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-18-2021 10:00 AM)FirstandGoal Wrote:  
(03-18-2021 09:41 AM)Todor Wrote:  
(03-18-2021 09:38 AM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  The best hope for two WAC teams in the tournament is tournament expansion.

Yes, if all conferences get 2 teams, that would do it alright.

The real hope in multiple tournament bids is in winning first round games and eventually getting higher seeds. While I believe all regular season conference champions from all conferences should get an invite before any conference fifth place or lower regular season team gets an at large bid, the NCAA and TV money will not let that happen. They want the historical big name schools in no matter what. To be honest The NCAA and TV would be happy if basketball was split like football and they did not cover the WAC, SLC, Pioneer of other lesser conferences.

Nah. Gonzaga has been making deep runs for over 20 years and the WCC is still a 1.5 bid league. Winning first round games won’t cut it.
03-18-2021 10:35 AM
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FirstandGoal Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-18-2021 10:35 AM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  
(03-18-2021 10:00 AM)FirstandGoal Wrote:  
(03-18-2021 09:41 AM)Todor Wrote:  
(03-18-2021 09:38 AM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  The best hope for two WAC teams in the tournament is tournament expansion.

Yes, if all conferences get 2 teams, that would do it alright.

The real hope in multiple tournament bids is in winning first round games and eventually getting higher seeds. While I believe all regular season conference champions from all conferences should get an invite before any conference fifth place or lower regular season team gets an at large bid, the NCAA and TV money will not let that happen. They want the historical big name schools in no matter what. To be honest The NCAA and TV would be happy if basketball was split like football and they did not cover the WAC, SLC, Pioneer of other lesser conferences.

Nah. Gonzaga has been making deep runs for over 20 years and the WCC is still a 1.5 bid league. Winning first round games won’t cut it.

Agreed, but they do get two bids more often than many other conferences.
03-18-2021 10:51 AM
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PojoaquePosse Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
NMSU was a bubble team 3-4 years ago. It was a longshot, but they were showing up on the bubble of several publications. I may be smoking crack, but I believe multiple bids could happen with the new WAC additions at some point.
03-18-2021 12:35 PM
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Todor Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-18-2021 12:35 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  NMSU was a bubble team 3-4 years ago. It was a longshot, but they were showing up on the bubble of several publications. I may be smoking crack, but I believe multiple bids could happen with the new WAC additions at some point.

In theory, yes. But I don't think the current teams will be around long enough for that to happen. Thats probably a decade away. And that's not my usual prediction of some of the Texas schools not sticking around. It's a statement of the fluidity of conference membership these days and the unstable nature of post 2013 era WAC in general. It takes a long, long time and a lot of sustained success before a conference can change its position in the hierarchy.
03-18-2021 12:58 PM
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DoubleRSU Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-18-2021 09:22 AM)Todor Wrote:  
(03-18-2021 09:08 AM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  A 25-4 MVC team is playing in the first 4 and that barely got the MVC 2 bids. Anyone who thinks the WAC is getting 2 anytime soon is...... not very intelligent.

And the MVC usually floats around the 8-10 range in their average RPI/NET rankings.

At best, and I mean absolute best, the WAC could potentially have a fluke year with 2 unusually strong teams and get 2 teams in, that one fluke time, without any indication of it becoming a trend. It has happened a handful of times in some lower conferences. The Southern Conference comes to mind, but I haven't researched it to verify. But I believe while Davidson was having some success, another team from the SoCon snuck in once. And Davidson left shortly after that time frame.

Correct. A team like NMSU would have to have a 26-4 record or so, lose in the championship game, have a couple of solid OOC wins, and hope there’s no bid stealers like this years Georgetown and Oregon State. Not to mention, the WAC would have to have a solid year. Getting rid of RPI/NET bottom dweller Chicago State will help, not sure by how much.
03-18-2021 02:02 PM
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PojoaquePosse Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-18-2021 02:02 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-18-2021 09:22 AM)Todor Wrote:  
(03-18-2021 09:08 AM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  A 25-4 MVC team is playing in the first 4 and that barely got the MVC 2 bids. Anyone who thinks the WAC is getting 2 anytime soon is...... not very intelligent.

And the MVC usually floats around the 8-10 range in their average RPI/NET rankings.

At best, and I mean absolute best, the WAC could potentially have a fluke year with 2 unusually strong teams and get 2 teams in, that one fluke time, without any indication of it becoming a trend. It has happened a handful of times in some lower conferences. The Southern Conference comes to mind, but I haven't researched it to verify. But I believe while Davidson was having some success, another team from the SoCon snuck in once. And Davidson left shortly after that time frame.

Correct. A team like NMSU would have to have a 26-4 record or so, lose in the championship game, have a couple of solid OOC wins, and hope there’s no bid stealers like this years Georgetown and Oregon State. Not to mention, the WAC would have to have a solid year. Getting rid of RPI/NET bottom dweller Chicago State will help, not sure by how much.

This is exactly what I was talking about. We had a stretch of 28, 30, 28 wins. We beat a bunch of P5 schools in those seasons including beating #6 Miami. We got to "#26" in the polls. Our RPI (at the time) was in he 50's. We were on the fringes of the bubble. It can be done, but a lot of stars have to align.

As has been stated, the 2 things that will help with WAC multi bids are OOC wins against P5 and quality G5 schools and getting a win in the NCAA like SFA has done recently.
03-18-2021 02:52 PM
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Todor Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
I know NMSU has flirted with being a bubble team, but that is still a one bid league in my mind. There was no other team in a similar position. If we win the league that year, we go, but no other team had a chance.

At least to me, a 2 bid league means that no matter who wins in the league tourney, another team is essentially a lock on top of that.
03-19-2021 01:43 AM
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NMSUPistolPete Offline
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RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 01:43 AM)Todor Wrote:  I know NMSU has flirted with being a bubble team, but that is still a one bid league in my mind. There was no other team in a similar position. If we win the league that year, we go, but no other team had a chance.

At least to me, a 2 bid league means that no matter who wins in the league tourney, another team is essentially a lock on top of that.

You are arguing that NMSU was the only WAC team worthy of an NCAA bid; auto or at-large. What others are now saying is that NMSU will not be the only team in the WAC playing at the high level; as we saw this season with GCU winning the WAC, ACU winning the SLC conference tournament, and Southern Utah winning the BSC regular season championship. From this point on, other WAC schools will be just as deserving of an NCAA bid as NMSU; winning OOC games and making the media and NCAA selection committee contemplate if a WAC school should be considered a bubble team.
03-19-2021 02:57 AM
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