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The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
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Todor Offline
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Post: #21
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 02:57 AM)NMSUPistolPete Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 01:43 AM)Todor Wrote:  I know NMSU has flirted with being a bubble team, but that is still a one bid league in my mind. There was no other team in a similar position. If we win the league that year, we go, but no other team had a chance.

At least to me, a 2 bid league means that no matter who wins in the league tourney, another team is essentially a lock on top of that.

You are arguing that NMSU was the only WAC team worthy of an NCAA bid; auto or at-large. What others are now saying is that NMSU will not be the only team in the WAC playing at the high level; as we saw this season with GCU winning the WAC, ACU winning the SLC conference tournament, and Southern Utah winning the BSC regular season championship. From this point on, other WAC schools will be just as deserving of an NCAA bid as NMSU; winning OOC games and making the media and NCAA selection committee contemplate if a WAC school should be considered a bubble team.

Yeah, I was just referring back to the mention of some of the years the Aggies had big win totals there.

It will be a new league next year. It might be a better league than this year probably, but so was the WAC of the recent past with its current members.

The highest the WAC reached recently was 15. With 2 other conference champs joining plus SFA, I don't see us reaching that level next year. And those aren't stable programs joining. They'll level off. Or bottom out.
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2021 04:03 AM by Todor.)
03-19-2021 03:51 AM
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PojoaquePosse Offline
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Post: #22
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 01:43 AM)Todor Wrote:  I know NMSU has flirted with being a bubble team, but that is still a one bid league in my mind. There was no other team in a similar position. If we win the league that year, we go, but no other team had a chance.

At least to me, a 2 bid league means that no matter who wins in the league tourney, another team is essentially a lock on top of that.

In the years I’m referring to, if NMSU had gotten to the WAC championship and lost, there was a chance they got an at large meaning 2 WAC bids.
03-19-2021 08:04 AM
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Todor Offline
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Post: #23
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 08:04 AM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 01:43 AM)Todor Wrote:  I know NMSU has flirted with being a bubble team, but that is still a one bid league in my mind. There was no other team in a similar position. If we win the league that year, we go, but no other team had a chance.

At least to me, a 2 bid league means that no matter who wins in the league tourney, another team is essentially a lock on top of that.

In the years I’m referring to, if NMSU had gotten to the WAC championship and lost, there was a chance they got an at large meaning 2 WAC bids.

Gotcha.
03-19-2021 08:22 AM
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PojoaquePosse Offline
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Post: #24
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 08:22 AM)Todor Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:04 AM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 01:43 AM)Todor Wrote:  I know NMSU has flirted with being a bubble team, but that is still a one bid league in my mind. There was no other team in a similar position. If we win the league that year, we go, but no other team had a chance.

At least to me, a 2 bid league means that no matter who wins in the league tourney, another team is essentially a lock on top of that.

In the years I’m referring to, if NMSU had gotten to the WAC championship and lost, there was a chance they got an at large meaning 2 WAC bids.

Gotcha.

I know what you are saying about 2 teams making it regardless of who wins the championship. But the WCC started with just Gonzaga. Now BYU and SMA get in regularly. Gotta start somewhere.
03-19-2021 08:12 PM
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DoubleRSU Online
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Post: #25
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 08:12 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:22 AM)Todor Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:04 AM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 01:43 AM)Todor Wrote:  I know NMSU has flirted with being a bubble team, but that is still a one bid league in my mind. There was no other team in a similar position. If we win the league that year, we go, but no other team had a chance.

At least to me, a 2 bid league means that no matter who wins in the league tourney, another team is essentially a lock on top of that.

In the years I’m referring to, if NMSU had gotten to the WAC championship and lost, there was a chance they got an at large meaning 2 WAC bids.

Gotcha.

I know what you are saying about 2 teams making it regardless of who wins the championship. But the WCC started with just Gonzaga. Now BYU and SMA get in regularly. Gotta start somewhere.

Yes, but NMSU isn’t Gonzaga, not even close.
03-19-2021 08:27 PM
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PojoaquePosse Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 08:27 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:12 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:22 AM)Todor Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:04 AM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 01:43 AM)Todor Wrote:  I know NMSU has flirted with being a bubble team, but that is still a one bid league in my mind. There was no other team in a similar position. If we win the league that year, we go, but no other team had a chance.

At least to me, a 2 bid league means that no matter who wins in the league tourney, another team is essentially a lock on top of that.

In the years I’m referring to, if NMSU had gotten to the WAC championship and lost, there was a chance they got an at large meaning 2 WAC bids.

Gotcha.

I know what you are saying about 2 teams making it regardless of who wins the championship. But the WCC started with just Gonzaga. Now BYU and SMA get in regularly. Gotta start somewhere.

Yes, but NMSU isn’t Gonzaga, not even close.

I wasn’t comparing NMSU to Gonzaga. I was comparing how the WCC got to multuple bids with the new WAC.
03-19-2021 08:34 PM
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DoubleRSU Online
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Post: #27
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 08:34 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:27 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:12 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:22 AM)Todor Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:04 AM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  In the years I’m referring to, if NMSU had gotten to the WAC championship and lost, there was a chance they got an at large meaning 2 WAC bids.

Gotcha.

I know what you are saying about 2 teams making it regardless of who wins the championship. But the WCC started with just Gonzaga. Now BYU and SMA get in regularly. Gotta start somewhere.

Yes, but NMSU isn’t Gonzaga, not even close.

I wasn’t comparing NMSU to Gonzaga. I was comparing how the WCC got to multuple bids with the new WAC.

The WCC wouldn’t have been respected if Gonzaga lost every 1st round game though. The WAC needs a Sweet 16 run here and there. That’s why NMSU (and the rest of us) aren’t close yet.
03-19-2021 08:49 PM
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NMSUPistolPete Online
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Post: #28
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 08:49 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:34 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:27 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:12 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:22 AM)Todor Wrote:  Gotcha.

I know what you are saying about 2 teams making it regardless of who wins the championship. But the WCC started with just Gonzaga. Now BYU and SMA get in regularly. Gotta start somewhere.

Yes, but NMSU isn’t Gonzaga, not even close.

I wasn’t comparing NMSU to Gonzaga. I was comparing how the WCC got to multuple bids with the new WAC.

The WCC wouldn’t have been respected if Gonzaga lost every 1st round game though. The WAC needs a Sweet 16 run here and there. That’s why NMSU (and the rest of us) aren’t close yet.

Yes, but NMSU might actually get a better seed in the NCAA tournament if the rest of the WAC were elevating the conference's NET ranking. NMSU couldn't afford to lose a conference because no one outside of NMSU was pulling their weight. By adding the Texas four it boosts the conference strength.
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2021 09:04 PM by NMSUPistolPete.)
03-19-2021 09:03 PM
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ThunderDan49_2 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 09:03 PM)NMSUPistolPete Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:49 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:34 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:27 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:12 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  I know what you are saying about 2 teams making it regardless of who wins the championship. But the WCC started with just Gonzaga. Now BYU and SMA get in regularly. Gotta start somewhere.

Yes, but NMSU isn’t Gonzaga, not even close.

I wasn’t comparing NMSU to Gonzaga. I was comparing how the WCC got to multuple bids with the new WAC.

The WCC wouldn’t have been respected if Gonzaga lost every 1st round game though. The WAC needs a Sweet 16 run here and there. That’s why NMSU (and the rest of us) aren’t close yet.

Yes, but NMSU might actually get a better seed in the NCAA tournament if the rest of the WAC were elevating the conference's NET ranking. NMSU couldn't afford to lose a conference because no one outside of NMSU was pulling their weight. By adding the Texas four it boosts the conference strength.

NET Rankings order including the Texas 4 and SUU:

1. ACU-74th
2. GCU-106th
3. SUU-129th
4. Steven F Austin-147th
5. Sam Houston St-171st
6. NMSU-175th
7. Utah Valley-219th
8. Seattle U-248th
9. CBU-249th
10. Tarleton St.-255th
11. UTRGV-289th
12. Lamar-306th
13. Dixie St-317th
14. Chi St-346th

Dixie and Tarleton should get better as they accumulate D-1 level talent and Chicago St would obviously drop after 2021. I wouldn't see a way after 2021 where the entire WAC isn't around 250 or above simply since we are bringing in 3 top 150 teams and losing the anchor that is Chi St. The WCC got 2 bids with their lowest rank team being Portland at 327 and second lowest being right at 250. Yes we need to win some games when we get to the tournament, but with the level of teams we are bringing in, it is going to be a lot easier to do that, especially if we can get all the teams in the conference in the top 250.
03-20-2021 02:02 AM
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NMSUPistolPete Online
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Post: #30
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-20-2021 02:02 AM)ThunderDan49_2 Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 09:03 PM)NMSUPistolPete Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:49 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:34 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:27 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Yes, but NMSU isn’t Gonzaga, not even close.

I wasn’t comparing NMSU to Gonzaga. I was comparing how the WCC got to multuple bids with the new WAC.

The WCC wouldn’t have been respected if Gonzaga lost every 1st round game though. The WAC needs a Sweet 16 run here and there. That’s why NMSU (and the rest of us) aren’t close yet.

Yes, but NMSU might actually get a better seed in the NCAA tournament if the rest of the WAC were elevating the conference's NET ranking. NMSU couldn't afford to lose a conference because no one outside of NMSU was pulling their weight. By adding the Texas four it boosts the conference strength.

NET Rankings order including the Texas 4 and SUU:

1. ACU-74th
2. GCU-106th
3. SUU-129th
4. Steven F Austin-147th
5. Sam Houston St-171st
6. NMSU-175th
7. Utah Valley-219th
8. Seattle U-248th
9. CBU-249th
10. Tarleton St.-255th
11. UTRGV-289th
12. Lamar-306th
13. Dixie St-317th
14. Chi St-346th

Dixie and Tarleton should get better as they accumulate D-1 level talent and Chicago St would obviously drop after 2021. I wouldn't see a way after 2021 where the entire WAC isn't around 250 or above simply since we are bringing in 3 top 150 teams and losing the anchor that is Chi St. The WCC got 2 bids with their lowest rank team being Portland at 327 and second lowest being right at 250. Yes we need to win some games when we get to the tournament, but with the level of teams we are bringing in, it is going to be a lot easier to do that, especially if we can get all the teams in the conference in the top 250.

Frankly, GCU is probably better than a 15 seed this season. But GCU needs to beat better programs in the WAC nightly to boost its NET. Granted, it would have been nice if NMSU had been able to win a first round game. But honestly, being in the WAC the last 8 or so years has put NMSU is too deep a hole with a 14,13,12 seed to win its way out of in the first round. To beat a top 4 seed in the NCAA tournament takes a little bit of luck or luck of the draw. In recent years, NMSU came close to winning against Auburn, San Diego State, and Michigan State. But inevitably the NCAA selection committee pitted a NMSU against a hot team entering the tournament. Both Auburn and Michigan State made to the Final 4.

Given the way the Big 10 has performed in this 2021 NCAA Tournament thus far, I think GCU might have a fighting chance against Iowa. Already Ohio State was eliminated by Oral Roberts, and Purdue was eliminated by North Texas. So, it appeared the Selection Committee might have over estimated the power of the Big 10 and seeded them too high in the tournament. Iowa might be seeded too high in the brackets and GCU too low; making this upcoming game possibly more competitive than some people might expect. Unfortunately, the Oral Roberts and North Texas wins might have put Iowa on alert about tomorrow's game. Too bad GCU didn't meet Iowa on Friday instead of Saturday to be part of the Friday upset wave. Day Two, the P5 schools might be less likely to take their matchup lightly if they are playing a lesser respected mid-major.
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2021 02:49 AM by NMSUPistolPete.)
03-20-2021 02:45 AM
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PojoaquePosse Offline
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Post: #31
RE: The future WAC and the NCAA Tournament
(03-19-2021 08:49 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:34 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:27 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:12 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  
(03-19-2021 08:22 AM)Todor Wrote:  Gotcha.

I know what you are saying about 2 teams making it regardless of who wins the championship. But the WCC started with just Gonzaga. Now BYU and SMA get in regularly. Gotta start somewhere.

Yes, but NMSU isn’t Gonzaga, not even close.

I wasn’t comparing NMSU to Gonzaga. I was comparing how the WCC got to multuple bids with the new WAC.

The WCC wouldn’t have been respected if Gonzaga lost every 1st round game though. The WAC needs a Sweet 16 run here and there. That’s why NMSU (and the rest of us) aren’t close yet.

Then let’s use the MWC as an example. They are around a top 10 conference. They regularly get multiple bids. They regularly get teams ranked in the top 25 (barely). Heck, they got 5 bids about 10 years ago. This year, they got 2 bids and had 2 other teams on the bubble that went to the NIT. Their conference numbers are good enough that there are several quad 1 and quad 2 wins to be had in conference. They also regularly have their teams regularly lose in the first round (see 2021). The point is, if you have quality schools with quality resumes, you can bring up the ranking of the conference and the teams. Seattle will hold everyone back though...
03-20-2021 10:40 PM
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