UofMTigerTim
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RE: um...about them 'vaccines'....yeah
(05-10-2021 11:32 AM)Jugnaut Wrote: (03-01-2021 12:53 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: I finally found the article I’d seen which had the charts of the decline in the infectious diseases through the 1900’s – which isn’t attributable to vaccines.
Here it is – published in 2019: The Impact of Vaccines on Mortality Decline Since 1900—According to Published Science
I seems this article is important enough to save – people are CONSTANTLY trying to say that vaccines are what saved the world……from infectious diseases like polio…measles, etc.
Quote:Since 1900, there’s been a 74% decline in mortality rates in developed countries, largely due to a marked decrease in deaths from infectious diseases. How much of this decline was due to vaccines? The history and data provide clear answers that matter greatly in today’s vitriolic debate about vaccines.
Since 1900, the mortality rate in America and other first-world countries has declined by roughly 74%, creating a dramatic improvement in quality of life and life expectancy for Americans.
The simple question: “How did this happen?”
Why did the mortality rate decline so precipitously? If you listen to vaccine promoters, the answer is simple: vaccines saved us. What’s crazy about this narrative is how easy it is to disprove, the data is hiding in plain sight. The fact that this easily-proven-false narrative persists, however, tells us a lot about the world we live in, and I hope will encourage parents to reconsider the veracity of many of the narratives they’ve been fed about vaccines, and do their own primary research.
...But what if most of the history about the role vaccines played in declining mortality isn’t even true?
“…we had accepted some half truths and had stopped searching for the whole truths. The principal half truths were that medical research had stamped out the great killers of the past —tuberculosis, diphtheria, pneumonia, puerperal sepsis, etc. —and that medical research and our superior system of medical care were major factors extending life expectancy, thus providing the American people with the highest level of health available in the world. That these are half truths is known but is perhaps not as well known as it should be.”
...“This decline in rates of certain disorders, correlated roughly with socioeconomic circumstances, is merely the most important happening in the history of the health of man, yet we have only the vaguest and most general notions about how it happened and by what mechanisms socioeconomic improvement and decreased rates of certain diseases run in parallel.”
...understanding WHY infectious diseases had declined so dramatically in the U.S. (as well as other first world countries). Was it nutrition? Sanitary methods? A reduction in home crowding? (We’ve since learned the answer to all three questions is, “Yes.”)
also related info link:
Infectious Diseases and Social Change by the former President of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
from: The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Volume 123, Issue 1, January 1971, Pages 110–114, https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/123.1.110
Published: 01 January 1971
1977: McKinlay & McKinlay: The most famous study you’ve never heard of
Quote:...their study warned against the very behavior we are now seeing in the world of vaccines. Namely, they warned that a group of profiteers might take more credit for the results of an intervention (vaccines) than the intervention deserves, and then use those fake results to create a world where their product must be used by everyone. Seriously, they predicted that this would happen. (It’s worth noting that the McKinlay Study used to be required reading at every medical school.)
…they warned that a group of profiteers might take more credit for the results of an intervention (vaccines) than the intervention deserves, and then use those fake results to create a world where their product must be used by everyone.
Published in 1977 in The Millbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, the McKinlay’s study was titled, “The Questionable Contribution of Medical Measures to the Decline of Mortality in the United States in the Twentieth Century.” The study clearly proved, with data, something that the McKinlay’s acknowledged might be viewed by some as medical “heresy.” Namely:
“that the introduction of specific medical measures and/or the expansion of medical services are generally NOT responsible for most of the modern decline in mortality.”
By “medical measures,” the McKinlay’s really meant ANYTHING modern medicine had come up with, whether that was antibiotics, vaccines, new prescription drugs, whatever. The McKinlay’s 23-page study really should be read cover to cover, but in a nutshell the McKinlay’s sought to analyze how much of an impact medical interventions (antibiotics, surgery, vaccines) had on this massive decline in mortality rates between 1900 and 1970:
Here are some of the major points their paper made:
92.3% of the mortality rate decline happened between 1900 and 1950 [before most vaccines existed]
Medical measures “appear to have contributed little to the overall decline in mortality in the United States since about 1900–having in many instances been introduced several decades after a marked decline had already set in and having no detectable influence in most instances.”
And, here’s the two doozies…
The paper makes two points that I really want to highlight, because they are so important. The first one concerns vaccines. They write:
“Even if it were assumed that this change was entirely due to the vaccines, then only about one percent of the decline following interventions for the diseases considered here could be attributed to medical measures. Rather more conservatively, if we attribute some of the subsequent fall in the death rates for pneumonia, influenza, whooping cough, and diphtheria to medical measures, then perhaps 3.5 percent of the fall in the overall death rate can be explained through medical intervention in the major infectious diseases considered here. Indeed, given that it is precisely for these diseases that medicine claims most success in lowering mortality, 3.5 percent probably represents a reasonable upper-limit estimate of the total contribution of medical measures to the decline in mortality in the United States since 1900.”
In plain English: of the total decline in mortality since 1900, that 74% number I keep mentioning, vaccines (and other medical interventions like antibiotics) were responsible for somewhere between 1% and 3.5% of that decline. Said differently, at least 96.5% of the decline (and likely more than that since their numbers included ALL medical interventions, not ONLY vaccines) had NOTHING to do with vaccines.
You don’t get to say you saved humanity if, at most, you were responsible for 3.5% of the decline in mortality rates since 1900 (and probably closer to 1%).
And then the McKinlay’s wrote something that made me laugh out loud, because it’s the thing we are seeing every day in today’s vaccine-hyped world:
“It is not uncommon today for biotechnological knowledge and specific medical interventions to be invoked as the major reason for most of the modern (twentieth century) decline in mortality. Responsibility for this decline is often claimed by, or ascribed to, the present-day major beneficiaries of this prevailing explanation.”
Sound familiar?
GoodOwl, what do they attribute the decline in mortality to if not vaccines and medical intervention? I've it often claimed that it was due to sanitation. Just curious.
Infant mortality.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtm...%20%283%20
https://www.pbs.org/fmc/timeline/dmortality.htm
Table 1
Note: To print large tables and graphs users may have to change their printer settings to landscape and use a small font size.
TABLE 1. Percentage reduction in infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality, by year -- United States,
1915-1997*
Percentage reduction in mortality
Year Infant (aged 0-364 days) Neonatal (aged 0-27 days) Postneonatal (aged 28-364 days)
1915-1919 13% 7% 19%
1920-1929 21% 11% 31%
1930-1939 26% 18% 35%
1940-1949 33% 26% 46%
1950-1959 10% 7% 15%
1960-1969 20% 17% 27%
1970-1979 35% 41% 14%
1980-1989 22% 27% 12%
1990-1997 22% 17% 29%
1915-1997 93% 89% 96%
* Percentage reduction is calculated as the reduction from the first year of the time period to the last year of the time period.
For white women, life expectancy at birth rose from 51 years in 1900 to 80 years in 1996. For white men, life expectancy at birth rose from 48 years in 1900 to 74 years in 1996.
(This post was last modified: 05-10-2021 11:54 AM by UofMTigerTim.)
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