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stever20 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
It really is an interesting comp between Griffey and Pujols and their aging period...
.257/.348/.477 110 wRC+ 2.1 fWAR .825 OPS Griffey 170 HR 880 G 3568 PA 2002-10
.253/.308/.438 102 wRC+ 2.7 fWAR .746 OPS Pujols 187 HR 1003 G 4291 PA 2013-20(will have 1 more year this year)

Griffey better- BUT already 143 fewer games. And 723 fewer PA already. He was so hurt in 2002-04 after a good 2005 he was just brutal

their brutal periods...
Griffey .247/.340/.443 .783 100 wRC+ 2232 PA 546 G -2.5 fWAR
Pujols .242/.291/.406 .697 84 wRC+ 1842 PA 436 G -3.0 fWAR

I think the thing is Pujols had the period from 2013-16 where he was decent. Griffey didn't and then went into awful territory.
02-24-2021 12:36 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
Lots of players going of on the Mariners CEO who was fired. One major thing the service time garbage game. I really hope they fix that in this next CBA. I don't know what the answer is but I think it might be something like if you get x days or more you get a full year. Right now that number is 172. That number needs to be down a lot more than that IMO.
02-24-2021 12:40 AM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #43
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
Brookes: your attitude about 1st balloters is why people HATE the voters. Don't worry, I'll get off your darn lawn.
(This post was last modified: 02-24-2021 02:33 AM by Erictelevision.)
02-24-2021 02:30 AM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #44
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
Stever: what seasons cover their "brutal" phase?
02-24-2021 02:34 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-24-2021 02:34 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Stever: what seasons cover their "brutal" phase?

Griffey 2006-10
Pujols 2017-20
02-24-2021 08:09 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #46
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-24-2021 02:30 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Brookes: your attitude about 1st balloters is why people HATE the voters. Don't worry, I'll get off your darn lawn.

Um, ok?

Look, I don't generally get riled up on this board, and nothing about my posts on this subject implies I'm angry/irritated/upset. You really ought to try to read the posts instead of just interpret them. I was incredibly wishy washy about my point, using words like "consider" and "a little". I'm perfectly comfortable with you, and the others here who agree with you, disagreeing with me. I obviously haven't even convinced myself!

The thing I'm much more likely to get ticked off about is faulty interpretation of clearly written words. Please try to keep up.
02-24-2021 01:00 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #47
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-24-2021 12:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  It really is an interesting comp between Griffey and Pujols and their aging period...
.257/.348/.477 110 wRC+ 2.1 fWAR .825 OPS Griffey 170 HR 880 G 3568 PA 2002-10
.253/.308/.438 102 wRC+ 2.7 fWAR .746 OPS Pujols 187 HR 1003 G 4291 PA 2013-20(will have 1 more year this year)

Griffey better- BUT already 143 fewer games. And 723 fewer PA already. He was so hurt in 2002-04 after a good 2005 he was just brutal

their brutal periods...
Griffey .247/.340/.443 .783 100 wRC+ 2232 PA 546 G -2.5 fWAR
Pujols .242/.291/.406 .697 84 wRC+ 1842 PA 436 G -3.0 fWAR

I think the thing is Pujols had the period from 2013-16 where he was decent. Griffey didn't and then went into awful territory.

When comparing those two, the biggest thing that stands out is that Pujols is giving so little value for money in the last several years. For the last few years, Pujols has been making about as much *each* year as Griffey made in his last five seasons combined. In his last two years back in Seattle, Griffey made about $2 million/year. Pujols in recent years wouldn't seem like such deadweight if he was making about $2 million a year instead of almost $30 million/year.
02-24-2021 02:10 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #48
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-24-2021 02:10 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(02-24-2021 12:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  It really is an interesting comp between Griffey and Pujols and their aging period...
.257/.348/.477 110 wRC+ 2.1 fWAR .825 OPS Griffey 170 HR 880 G 3568 PA 2002-10
.253/.308/.438 102 wRC+ 2.7 fWAR .746 OPS Pujols 187 HR 1003 G 4291 PA 2013-20(will have 1 more year this year)

Griffey better- BUT already 143 fewer games. And 723 fewer PA already. He was so hurt in 2002-04 after a good 2005 he was just brutal

their brutal periods...
Griffey .247/.340/.443 .783 100 wRC+ 2232 PA 546 G -2.5 fWAR
Pujols .242/.291/.406 .697 84 wRC+ 1842 PA 436 G -3.0 fWAR

I think the thing is Pujols had the period from 2013-16 where he was decent. Griffey didn't and then went into awful territory.

When comparing those two, the biggest thing that stands out is that Pujols is giving so little value for money in the last several years. For the last few years, Pujols has been making about as much *each* year as Griffey made in his last five seasons combined. In his last two years back in Seattle, Griffey made about $2 million/year. Pujols in recent years wouldn't seem like such deadweight if he was making about $2 million a year instead of almost $30 million/year.

This gets to the heart of my point but I'm not sure these two are much different until you get to those last couple of years. Pujols' positive WAR as an Angel (i.e. through 2016) was just under 9, and since then his negative WAR drags him down to under 6. After this season it'll be close to 5. $/WAR right now is about $8MM and was probably in the $5-$6MM range in 2010. Using his contract of $225MM and an average $/WAR of $6-$6.5MM, his value is a single to low double digit % of what it should have been.

Griffey Jr produced a little less WAR (yes, imagine that) at just under 4, but also was paid only about $90MM. During the 2nd half of his career $/WAR went from about $2.5MM to about $5MM. Using an average $/WAR of $3.5-$4MM he delivers only a little better % of his contract's expected value.

But if you do just look at the last two years of the contract you are right. Pujols is by far the bigger drag, both from a stats/value perspective as well as impact on their respective teams to make personnel moves to improve.
(This post was last modified: 02-24-2021 04:35 PM by Brookes Owl.)
02-24-2021 02:55 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #49
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
I just hope like anything Trout doesn't age like this....

so many of the guys recently have. not just these 2 obvious ones but even some guys like David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman.
02-24-2021 03:24 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #50
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-24-2021 03:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I just hope like anything Trout doesn't age like this....

so many of the guys recently have. not just these 2 obvious ones but even some guys like David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman.

I've got my fingers crossed for Mookie! And I'll probably end up having to cross them again for Seager. Probably Bellinger and Buehler too but I get to wait a little bit on them.

I think it's ok when a team is willing to finance near term performance knowing that long term value won't be there. And I think that's what most of us were saying when the Angels signed Pujols: He won't be worth it in the last 3 or 4 years but if they can make the playoffs and contend in the first 5 or so years it's ok to pay on the back end because you likely got more value than you were paying for at the front end. Oh well.

The Bauer deal is great because there's a good chance he'll deliver at or at least near his value for the duration of his agreement. And if he doesn't? He's off the books relatively quickly. That's a unicorn deal though.
02-24-2021 04:34 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #51
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-24-2021 04:34 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(02-24-2021 03:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I just hope like anything Trout doesn't age like this....

so many of the guys recently have. not just these 2 obvious ones but even some guys like David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman.

I've got my fingers crossed for Mookie! And I'll probably end up having to cross them again for Seager. Probably Bellinger and Buehler too but I get to wait a little bit on them.

I think it's ok when a team is willing to finance near term performance knowing that long term value won't be there. And I think that's what most of us were saying when the Angels signed Pujols: He won't be worth it in the last 3 or 4 years but if they can make the playoffs and contend in the first 5 or so years it's ok to pay on the back end because you likely got more value than you were paying for at the front end. Oh well.

The Bauer deal is great because there's a good chance he'll deliver at or at least near his value for the duration of his agreement. And if he doesn't? He's off the books relatively quickly. That's a unicorn deal though.
It would be interesting if the Bauer deal became more normal in MLB. Really interesting.

I know for me I'm watching your Dodgers for the Bellinger situation. Kind of gives some idea for Soto.
02-24-2021 07:40 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #52
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-24-2021 07:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It would be interesting if the Bauer deal became more normal in MLB. Really interesting.

It would be, but I called it a unicorn deal because I think it needs a guy like Bauer (confident to the point of arrogance, contrary thinker) AND an agent willing to give that a try. He's betting he'll be just as good or better in two years and he'll be able to command a similar AAV contract. He was never going to get 4 or 5 years at $40+ out of this free agency but if he can end up with that if he has a great 2021-22. That's so much risk though, it's really hard imagining a Scott Boras type agent letting his client go that route.
02-24-2021 11:25 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #53
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
One more fun Pujols/HOF statistic:

Pujols is the all-time leader in grounding into double plays. He's done it 399 times.

Among players already retired and Hall-eligible, the top 7 in career GIDPs, and 12 of the top 14, are in the HOF.
02-25-2021 12:43 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
I tell you a guy we haven't even mentioned but could easily be on that list of all time bad to end career....

Miguel Cabrera...

Signed 8/240 deal with Tigers in 2016....

2016 he had 5.1 fWAR

since then he's had 0.4 fWAR

he still has 3 years left.
02-25-2021 12:59 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-25-2021 12:43 AM)Wedge Wrote:  One more fun Pujols/HOF statistic:

Pujols is the all-time leader in grounding into double plays. He's done it 399 times.

Among players already retired and Hall-eligible, the top 7 in career GIDPs, and 12 of the top 14, are in the HOF.

Speaking of GIDP- Cabrera is #7 all time right now, and if he does what he did in 2019, 18 of them- he'd move all the way up to #3 behind only Pujols and Cal Ripken Jr.
02-25-2021 01:01 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #56
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-24-2021 11:25 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(02-24-2021 07:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It would be interesting if the Bauer deal became more normal in MLB. Really interesting.

It would be, but I called it a unicorn deal because I think it needs a guy like Bauer (confident to the point of arrogance, contrary thinker) AND an agent willing to give that a try. He's betting he'll be just as good or better in two years and he'll be able to command a similar AAV contract. He was never going to get 4 or 5 years at $40+ out of this free agency but if he can end up with that if he has a great 2021-22. That's so much risk though, it's really hard imagining a Scott Boras type agent letting his client go that route.

Yeah totally agree with you. Just would be really interesting how different it'll be.
02-25-2021 01:04 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-25-2021 12:43 AM)Wedge Wrote:  One more fun Pujols/HOF statistic:

Pujols is the all-time leader in grounding into double plays. He's done it 399 times.

Among players already retired and Hall-eligible, the top 7 in career GIDPs, and 12 of the top 14, are in the HOF.

so looking more-
top 50- it's actually 52 as 4 way tie at 49th
25 guys in the HOF
Pujols/Cabrera locks
Arod would have been a lock
Pete Rose would have been a lock

then you have Yadier Molina and David Ortiz

even throw in for this discussion Manny Ramirez who is #43(tied with Killebrew and Musial)

So that is 32/52 guys who are either in the HOF, will be in the HOF, or career merits being in the HOF. Just an incredible stat.
02-25-2021 01:28 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #58
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
saw this


i think that puts us at 10 teams with fans maybe 11....
Both NYC teams
both Ohio teams
I think both Texas teams
I think all 3 Florida teams(including Toronto starting off there)
Atlanta
I think maybe Arizona
02-25-2021 03:16 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #59
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
Add the Rockies to that list. List growing pretty quickly.
02-25-2021 11:35 PM
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Post: #60
RE: MLB 2021 Thread
(02-19-2021 10:38 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(02-19-2021 10:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Today in the bloodbath that is NL Beast- Taijuan Walker signs with the Mets.

absolutely love what he posted tonight. This will get him a lot of Mets fans really quickly IMO:


GTS? Georgia Tech Swagger?

I prefer Temperanillo or Roussillon. But Cab Sav isn't a bad fallback.
02-26-2021 01:35 PM
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