(02-16-2021 12:00 PM)Red Death Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 11:35 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  La Tech has no at large shot. RPI means nothing. It isn’t a data point because it isn’t used. WKU is, has been, and will continue to be the only team with a shot at an at large. Our only realistic hope at a second at large was UAB winning out to the conference finals and then sitting there with a large quantity of wins and Good NET numbers on selection Sunday. I still doubt that would have been enough, but it was all we had left. La Tech took care of business, and that’s no longer an option.

I also forgot about the WKU collapse against WVU. That win likely would’ve been enough to have them solidly in the field at this point.

We did give that game away as I stated above, but to be fair, Bassey suffered an injury in the game which is obviously a big deal. We did, however, play very stupidly when he went out of the game.

Also, remember that at nearly the same time as Bassey's injury, Tayveon Hollingsworth sprained his thumb. Double trouble!

(02-16-2021 12:00 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 10:56 AM)wkuhilltopperfan Wrote:  WKU has won 6 straight games and I don’t believe our Net ranking has moved at all...... we are a one big league like it or not

Winning at UNT on Friday would be a Quad 1 win for Western.

If they can do it.

For the record, LA Tech beat both WKU and UNT on the road by 5 pts each, and lost to both teams on the road by 2 pts each. So there's that.

(02-16-2021 01:26 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:00 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 10:56 AM)wkuhilltopperfan Wrote:  WKU has won 6 straight games and I don’t believe our Net ranking has moved at all...... we are a one big league like it or not

Winning at UNT on Friday would be a Quad 1 win for Western.

If they can do it.

For the record, LA Tech beat both WKU and UNT on the road by 5 pts each, and lost to both teams on the road by 2 pts each. So there's that.

Definitely going to be a tough road trip for WKU to get through, I do feel WKU is playing on a different level than mid season right now but assures nothing in the win column

(02-16-2021 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:21 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 08:56 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  CBS Sports latest bracket projection has both WKU and North Texas projected to make the tournament. WKU as a 10 and UNT as a 13.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...cketology/

There were projections for the last couple of weeks that had CUSA as a 2-bid conference except the teams were UAB and WKU. Swap UAB with UNT now with WKU still projecting for an at-large. What I don't get if they think WKU is good enough for an at-large bid why do they not think they could get the auto-bid by winning the conference tourney?

This weekend games are huge for UNT. A sweep for UNT probably hurts WKU chances for an at-large. A WKU sweep probably makes CUSA a one bid league. A split keeps things status quo.

WKU could win out and lose in the CUSA championship. That would make them 9-1 out of their last 10, probably a NET in the 50s, RPI in the 20's to 30's and a big OOC win.

That's a good resume.

I think they pick up an at large if this happens.

I think CUSA has 3 possible scenarios for a 2nd bid this season, all involving teams that get hot, run the table from here on out, and ultimately lose the CUSA title game to someone else.

1) WKU: Needs to sweep UNT this weekend, run the table to the end, and then lose the CUSA title game. At that point, WKU will likely have an overall record of 23-5 (?). I give this scenario a 50% chance of happening.

2) UAB: If the Blazers get hot, run the table the rest of the way, but lose the CUSA title game closely, their projected 24-5 (?) record (in this scenario) could be good enough to grab the attention of the NCAA Tournament Committee. I give this a 30% chance of happening.

3) LA Tech: Based on a projected overall finish of 23-7 (in this scenario), I think Tech has a slight chance at an open bid invite. The Dogs must run the table and lose in the CUSA title game to WKU or UAB. At that point, the Dogs would have a 23-7 post CUSA tournament record, and that might look okay in a COVID year. I give this a 20% chance of happening.

What separates the above teams from their CUSA brethren, is a chance for a 23+ win season. Sometimes, open bids are all about window dressing. Generally, having 20+ wins helps, and should be a big help in this unusual COVID season.

I think not making up the UNT-ODU series is going to hurt both of those teams chances at an open bid. I also think Marshall gets hurt by not making up the FAU series (2 easy wins?). I can't see the NCAA committee inviting an 18-8 Marshall (likely record, if they run the table but lose the CUSA title game), or a 17-10 (likely) UNT, or a 17-8 (likely) ODU.

(02-16-2021 02:24 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:21 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 08:56 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  CBS Sports latest bracket projection has both WKU and North Texas projected to make the tournament. WKU as a 10 and UNT as a 13.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...cketology/

There were projections for the last couple of weeks that had CUSA as a 2-bid conference except the teams were UAB and WKU. Swap UAB with UNT now with WKU still projecting for an at-large. What I don't get if they think WKU is good enough for an at-large bid why do they not think they could get the auto-bid by winning the conference tourney?

This weekend games are huge for UNT. A sweep for UNT probably hurts WKU chances for an at-large. A WKU sweep probably makes CUSA a one bid league. A split keeps things status quo.

WKU could win out and lose in the CUSA championship. That would make them 9-1 out of their last 10, probably a NET in the 50s, RPI in the 20's to 30's and a big OOC win.

That's a good resume.

I think they pick up an at large if this happens.

I think CUSA has 3 possible scenarios for a 2nd bid this season, all involving teams that get hot, run the table from here on out, and ultimately lose the CUSA title game to someone else.

1) WKU: Needs to sweep UNT this weekend, run the table to the end, and then lose the CUSA title game. At that point, WKU will likely have an overall record of 23-5 (?). I give this scenario a 50% chance of happening.

2) UAB: If the Blazers get hot, run the table the rest of the way, but lose the CUSA title game closely, their projected 24-5 (?) record (in this scenario) could be good enough to grab the attention of the NCAA Tournament Committee. I give this a 30% chance of happening.

3) LA Tech: Based on a projected overall finish of 23-7 (in this scenario), I think Tech has a slight chance at an open bid invite. The Dogs must run the table and lose in the CUSA title game to WKU or UAB. At that point, the Dogs would have a 23-7 post CUSA tournament record, and that might look okay in a COVID year. I give this a 20% chance of happening.

What separates the above teams from their CUSA brethren, is a chance for a 23+ win season. Sometimes, open bids are all about window dressing. Generally, having 20+ wins helps, and should be a big help in this unusual COVID season.

I think not making up the UNT-ODU series is going to hurt both of those teams chances at an open bid. I also think Marshall gets hurt by not making up the FAU series (2 easy wins?). I can't see the NCAA committee inviting an 18-8 Marshall (likely record, if they run the table but lose the CUSA title game), or a 17-10 (likely) UNT, or a 17-8 (likely) ODU.

just to point an incorrect statement. Marshall's record if they run the table and losing a championship would actually be 20-6.

They did that, they would probably have a NET in the high 40s. They are 68 now.

regardless, I don't think we have enough of a resume to be an at large.

(02-16-2021 02:48 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 02:24 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:21 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 08:56 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  CBS Sports latest bracket projection has both WKU and North Texas projected to make the tournament. WKU as a 10 and UNT as a 13.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...cketology/

There were projections for the last couple of weeks that had CUSA as a 2-bid conference except the teams were UAB and WKU. Swap UAB with UNT now with WKU still projecting for an at-large. What I don't get if they think WKU is good enough for an at-large bid why do they not think they could get the auto-bid by winning the conference tourney?

This weekend games are huge for UNT. A sweep for UNT probably hurts WKU chances for an at-large. A WKU sweep probably makes CUSA a one bid league. A split keeps things status quo.

WKU could win out and lose in the CUSA championship. That would make them 9-1 out of their last 10, probably a NET in the 50s, RPI in the 20's to 30's and a big OOC win.

That's a good resume.

I think they pick up an at large if this happens.

I think CUSA has 3 possible scenarios for a 2nd bid this season, all involving teams that get hot, run the table from here on out, and ultimately lose the CUSA title game to someone else.

1) WKU: Needs to sweep UNT this weekend, run the table to the end, and then lose the CUSA title game. At that point, WKU will likely have an overall record of 23-5 (?). I give this scenario a 50% chance of happening.

2) UAB: If the Blazers get hot, run the table the rest of the way, but lose the CUSA title game closely, their projected 24-5 (?) record (in this scenario) could be good enough to grab the attention of the NCAA Tournament Committee. I give this a 30% chance of happening.

3) LA Tech: Based on a projected overall finish of 23-7 (in this scenario), I think Tech has a slight chance at an open bid invite. The Dogs must run the table and lose in the CUSA title game to WKU or UAB. At that point, the Dogs would have a 23-7 post CUSA tournament record, and that might look okay in a COVID year. I give this a 20% chance of happening.

What separates the above teams from their CUSA brethren, is a chance for a 23+ win season. Sometimes, open bids are all about window dressing. Generally, having 20+ wins helps, and should be a big help in this unusual COVID season.

I think not making up the UNT-ODU series is going to hurt both of those teams chances at an open bid. I also think Marshall gets hurt by not making up the FAU series (2 easy wins?). I can't see the NCAA committee inviting an 18-8 Marshall (likely record, if they run the table but lose the CUSA title game), or a 17-10 (likely) UNT, or a 17-8 (likely) ODU.

just to point an incorrect statement. Marshall's record if they run the table and losing a championship would actually be 20-6.

They did that, they would probably have a NET in the high 40s. They are 68 now.

regardless, I don't think we have enough of a resume to be an at large.

Good point. Thanks for catching that. You are correct. Marshall is currently 12-5 overall, with 6 regular season games remaining (potential 18-5 regular season record), and 3 more if they make it to the CUSA title game. Marshall would finish 20-6 as you suggested, if they ran the table but lost the title game. But now, the loss of that FAU series --probably two easy wins-- is looking really painful for Marshall.

Not many bubble teams have a win at Bama. Talking heads seem to think eye ball test will be more important to selection committee in this uneven season, so not sure how much NET comes into play? Doubt many of the P5 cartel are seeking out to watch WKU on facebook, but maybe they saw and follow Bassey..Also in no way will WKU her benefit is the doubt for any at large consideration, better to win CUSA tournament..

I feel Wku is the only team with a chance at an at-large and they would probably need to win out to the championship game of the tournament and be upset giving us 2 bids. I remember a couple years back I was certain Middle Tn would get an at large, they were ranked 24 and lost their last 2 games and was nit bound.

clt says Charlotte could win the cusa tourney, then lose in the 1st round by 50

(02-16-2021 02:24 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:21 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 08:56 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  CBS Sports latest bracket projection has both WKU and North Texas projected to make the tournament. WKU as a 10 and UNT as a 13.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...cketology/

There were projections for the last couple of weeks that had CUSA as a 2-bid conference except the teams were UAB and WKU. Swap UAB with UNT now with WKU still projecting for an at-large. What I don't get if they think WKU is good enough for an at-large bid why do they not think they could get the auto-bid by winning the conference tourney?

This weekend games are huge for UNT. A sweep for UNT probably hurts WKU chances for an at-large. A WKU sweep probably makes CUSA a one bid league. A split keeps things status quo.

WKU could win out and lose in the CUSA championship. That would make them 9-1 out of their last 10, probably a NET in the 50s, RPI in the 20's to 30's and a big OOC win.

That's a good resume.

I think they pick up an at large if this happens.

I think CUSA has 3 possible scenarios for a 2nd bid this season, all involving teams that get hot, run the table from here on out, and ultimately lose the CUSA title game to someone else.

1) WKU: Needs to sweep UNT this weekend, run the table to the end, and then lose the CUSA title game. At that point, WKU will likely have an overall record of 23-5 (?). I give this scenario a 50% chance of happening.

2) UAB: If the Blazers get hot, run the table the rest of the way, but lose the CUSA title game closely, their projected 24-5 (?) record (in this scenario) could be good enough to grab the attention of the NCAA Tournament Committee. I give this a 30% chance of happening.

3) LA Tech: Based on a projected overall finish of 23-7 (in this scenario), I think Tech has a slight chance at an open bid invite. The Dogs must run the table and lose in the CUSA title game to WKU or UAB. At that point, the Dogs would have a 23-7 post CUSA tournament record, and that might look okay in a COVID year. I give this a 20% chance of happening.

What separates the above teams from their CUSA brethren, is a chance for a 23+ win season. Sometimes, open bids are all about window dressing. Generally, having 20+ wins helps, and should be a big help in this unusual COVID season.

I think not making up the UNT-ODU series is going to hurt both of those teams chances at an open bid. I also think Marshall gets hurt by not making up the FAU series (2 easy wins?). I can't see the NCAA committee inviting an 18-8 Marshall (likely record, if they run the table but lose the CUSA title game), or a 17-10 (likely) UNT, or a 17-8 (likely) ODU.

No offense, but nobody has a shot at an at-large other than WKU. UAB, La Tech, UNT, and Marshall all could run the table the rest of the year (they are talented enough to do so) and finish with a great record. But none of them have at-large resume wins. WKU does. WKU has four Quad 1 & 2 wins including @ Bama and Memphis. Those wins are what get you in the tournament. WKU is not a lock. Need to win out and lose in title game. The only blemish on the WKU resume is a choke job at Charlotte (up 7 with 3:00 left). If that game is a W, I think the Tops are in right now.

(02-16-2021 05:44 PM)Hilltopper413 Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 02:24 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:21 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 08:56 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  CBS Sports latest bracket projection has both WKU and North Texas projected to make the tournament. WKU as a 10 and UNT as a 13.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...cketology/

There were projections for the last couple of weeks that had CUSA as a 2-bid conference except the teams were UAB and WKU. Swap UAB with UNT now with WKU still projecting for an at-large. What I don't get if they think WKU is good enough for an at-large bid why do they not think they could get the auto-bid by winning the conference tourney?

This weekend games are huge for UNT. A sweep for UNT probably hurts WKU chances for an at-large. A WKU sweep probably makes CUSA a one bid league. A split keeps things status quo.

WKU could win out and lose in the CUSA championship. That would make them 9-1 out of their last 10, probably a NET in the 50s, RPI in the 20's to 30's and a big OOC win.

That's a good resume.

I think they pick up an at large if this happens.

I think CUSA has 3 possible scenarios for a 2nd bid this season, all involving teams that get hot, run the table from here on out, and ultimately lose the CUSA title game to someone else.

1) WKU: Needs to sweep UNT this weekend, run the table to the end, and then lose the CUSA title game. At that point, WKU will likely have an overall record of 23-5 (?). I give this scenario a 50% chance of happening.

2) UAB: If the Blazers get hot, run the table the rest of the way, but lose the CUSA title game closely, their projected 24-5 (?) record (in this scenario) could be good enough to grab the attention of the NCAA Tournament Committee. I give this a 30% chance of happening.

3) LA Tech: Based on a projected overall finish of 23-7 (in this scenario), I think Tech has a slight chance at an open bid invite. The Dogs must run the table and lose in the CUSA title game to WKU or UAB. At that point, the Dogs would have a 23-7 post CUSA tournament record, and that might look okay in a COVID year. I give this a 20% chance of happening.

What separates the above teams from their CUSA brethren, is a chance for a 23+ win season. Sometimes, open bids are all about window dressing. Generally, having 20+ wins helps, and should be a big help in this unusual COVID season.

I think not making up the UNT-ODU series is going to hurt both of those teams chances at an open bid. I also think Marshall gets hurt by not making up the FAU series (2 easy wins?). I can't see the NCAA committee inviting an 18-8 Marshall (likely record, if they run the table but lose the CUSA title game), or a 17-10 (likely) UNT, or a 17-8 (likely) ODU.

No offense, but nobody has a shot at an at-large other than WKU. UAB, La Tech, UNT, and Marshall all could run the table the rest of the year (they are talented enough to do so) and finish with a great record. But none of them have at-large resume wins. WKU does. WKU has four Quad 1 & 2 wins including @ Bama and Memphis. Those wins are what get you in the tournament. WKU is not a lock. Need to win out and lose in title game. The only blemish on the WKU resume is a choke job at Charlotte (up 7 with 3:00 left). If that game is a W, I think the Tops are in right now.

Well, not a lock to happen by any means, however, theoretically if Marshall runs the table, they have 4 quad 1 and 2 wins as well, probably a NET in the 40's, and 20 wins.

Potentially a few more quad 1 and 2 wins depending on who plays who in the tournament.

(02-16-2021 05:44 PM)Hilltopper413 Wrote:  No offense, but nobody has a shot at an at-large other than WKU. UAB, La Tech, UNT, and Marshall all could run the table the rest of the year (they are talented enough to do so) and finish with a great record. But none of them have at-large resume wins. WKU does. WKU has four Quad 1 & 2 wins including @ Bama and Memphis. Those wins are what get you in the tournament. WKU is not a lock. Need to win out and lose in title game. The only blemish on the WKU resume is a choke job at Charlotte (up 7 with 3:00 left). If that game is a W, I think the Tops are in right now.

Agreed.

I just hope that WKU can make it to Denton for the game on Friday. This cold front we are having is historic with major power outages. Friday should be better, but it may be too late.

(02-16-2021 06:13 PM)ClaudeFunston Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 05:44 PM)Hilltopper413 Wrote:  No offense, but nobody has a shot at an at-large other than WKU. UAB, La Tech, UNT, and Marshall all could run the table the rest of the year (they are talented enough to do so) and finish with a great record. But none of them have at-large resume wins. WKU does. WKU has four Quad 1 & 2 wins including @ Bama and Memphis. Those wins are what get you in the tournament. WKU is not a lock. Need to win out and lose in title game. The only blemish on the WKU resume is a choke job at Charlotte (up 7 with 3:00 left). If that game is a W, I think the Tops are in right now.

Agreed.

I just hope that WKU can make it to Denton for the game on Friday. This cold front we are having is historic with major power outages. Friday should be better, but it may be too late.

The weather is bad, but it's just normal winter weather for the rest of us.

My grandmother who lived her whole life in West Virginia moved to Oklahoma about five years ago to be closer to one of her daughter's. She told me people have lost their minds out west because they're not used to it.

Ice is far more dangerous than snow.

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/a...o.amp.html

For what it's worth. Another prediction article. This one has WKU as a 12...

What's interesting is who they have as the first in, first out. Many teams in the last in group have resumes with NET rankings in the 30's.

If that is the case, we are indeed far away from two bids.

(02-16-2021 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:21 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 08:56 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  CBS Sports latest bracket projection has both WKU and North Texas projected to make the tournament. WKU as a 10 and UNT as a 13.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...cketology/

There were projections for the last couple of weeks that had CUSA as a 2-bid conference except the teams were UAB and WKU. Swap UAB with UNT now with WKU still projecting for an at-large. What I don't get if they think WKU is good enough for an at-large bid why do they not think they could get the auto-bid by winning the conference tourney?

This weekend games are huge for UNT. A sweep for UNT probably hurts WKU chances for an at-large. A WKU sweep probably makes CUSA a one bid league. A split keeps things status quo.

WKU could win out and lose in the CUSA championship. That would make them 9-1 out of their last 10, probably a NET in the 50s, RPI in the 20's to 30's and a big OOC win.

That's a good resume.

I think they pick up an at large if this happens.

I think WKU could lose another game or two and still get an at large bid as long as the losses are to decent teams like a UNT. In my opinion, WKU is the best team in the conference and they could still win the regular season title which is why I don't understand they are not being considered for an autobid instead of at large.

Basically the experts ( I guess) are saying they don't think WKU is good enough to win the conference tourney but good enough for an at large. I'll be more than happy to see CUSA get two bids but if there is a conference tourney and WKU wins it all this will still only be a one bid conference.

And to be honest, I'm not buying CUSA as a two bid conference.

(02-16-2021 06:01 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 05:44 PM)Hilltopper413 Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 02:24 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:21 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  There were projections for the last couple of weeks that had CUSA as a 2-bid conference except the teams were UAB and WKU. Swap UAB with UNT now with WKU still projecting for an at-large. What I don't get if they think WKU is good enough for an at-large bid why do they not think they could get the auto-bid by winning the conference tourney?

This weekend games are huge for UNT. A sweep for UNT probably hurts WKU chances for an at-large. A WKU sweep probably makes CUSA a one bid league. A split keeps things status quo.

WKU could win out and lose in the CUSA championship. That would make them 9-1 out of their last 10, probably a NET in the 50s, RPI in the 20's to 30's and a big OOC win.

That's a good resume.

I think they pick up an at large if this happens.

I think CUSA has 3 possible scenarios for a 2nd bid this season, all involving teams that get hot, run the table from here on out, and ultimately lose the CUSA title game to someone else.

1) WKU: Needs to sweep UNT this weekend, run the table to the end, and then lose the CUSA title game. At that point, WKU will likely have an overall record of 23-5 (?). I give this scenario a 50% chance of happening.

2) UAB: If the Blazers get hot, run the table the rest of the way, but lose the CUSA title game closely, their projected 24-5 (?) record (in this scenario) could be good enough to grab the attention of the NCAA Tournament Committee. I give this a 30% chance of happening.

3) LA Tech: Based on a projected overall finish of 23-7 (in this scenario), I think Tech has a slight chance at an open bid invite. The Dogs must run the table and lose in the CUSA title game to WKU or UAB. At that point, the Dogs would have a 23-7 post CUSA tournament record, and that might look okay in a COVID year. I give this a 20% chance of happening.

What separates the above teams from their CUSA brethren, is a chance for a 23+ win season. Sometimes, open bids are all about window dressing. Generally, having 20+ wins helps, and should be a big help in this unusual COVID season.

I think not making up the UNT-ODU series is going to hurt both of those teams chances at an open bid. I also think Marshall gets hurt by not making up the FAU series (2 easy wins?). I can't see the NCAA committee inviting an 18-8 Marshall (likely record, if they run the table but lose the CUSA title game), or a 17-10 (likely) UNT, or a 17-8 (likely) ODU.

No offense, but nobody has a shot at an at-large other than WKU. UAB, La Tech, UNT, and Marshall all could run the table the rest of the year (they are talented enough to do so) and finish with a great record. But none of them have at-large resume wins. WKU does. WKU has four Quad 1 & 2 wins including @ Bama and Memphis. Those wins are what get you in the tournament. WKU is not a lock. Need to win out and lose in title game. The only blemish on the WKU resume is a choke job at Charlotte (up 7 with 3:00 left). If that game is a W, I think the Tops are in right now.

Well, not a lock to happen by any means, however, theoretically if Marshall runs the table, they have 4 quad 1 and 2 wins as well, probably a NET in the 40's, and 20 wins.

Potentially a few more quad 1 and 2 wins depending on who plays who in the tournament.

I don’t disagree with your reasoning, I just do not think the selection committee will agree. If WKU wins out that will include two more Quad 1 wins at UNT. That will put us at 6-2 in Q1/Q2 games. I still do not think that would be enough if all of the Q1/Q2 wins were against CUSA opponents. The win @ Alabama will get much more traction in the committee’s eyes than anything. Memphis on a neutral court will also have a more favorable opinion in the selection room than a win @ Marshall even though we all know the @ Marshall game is a much better win.

The facts are that if you want an at-large in CUSA you have to have a
“wow” win along with some name recognition wins. WKU has a couple of those which is the only reason our name has come up so frequently in the “at-large discussions” by the media. It’s all for not if we drop another game though. I still think we have to get the auto-bid to get in. But it’s fun to talk about.

(02-16-2021 03:51 PM)ghostofclt! Wrote:  clt says Charlotte could win the cusa tourney, then lose in the 1st round by 50

mturn017 reminds clt that Charlotte would have to win 4 games in a row to win the CUSA tournament

(02-16-2021 09:19 PM)Hilltopper413 Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 06:01 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 05:44 PM)Hilltopper413 Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 02:24 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  WKU could win out and lose in the CUSA championship. That would make them 9-1 out of their last 10, probably a NET in the 50s, RPI in the 20's to 30's and a big OOC win.

That's a good resume.

I think they pick up an at large if this happens.

I think CUSA has 3 possible scenarios for a 2nd bid this season, all involving teams that get hot, run the table from here on out, and ultimately lose the CUSA title game to someone else.

1) WKU: Needs to sweep UNT this weekend, run the table to the end, and then lose the CUSA title game. At that point, WKU will likely have an overall record of 23-5 (?). I give this scenario a 50% chance of happening.

2) UAB: If the Blazers get hot, run the table the rest of the way, but lose the CUSA title game closely, their projected 24-5 (?) record (in this scenario) could be good enough to grab the attention of the NCAA Tournament Committee. I give this a 30% chance of happening.

3) LA Tech: Based on a projected overall finish of 23-7 (in this scenario), I think Tech has a slight chance at an open bid invite. The Dogs must run the table and lose in the CUSA title game to WKU or UAB. At that point, the Dogs would have a 23-7 post CUSA tournament record, and that might look okay in a COVID year. I give this a 20% chance of happening.

What separates the above teams from their CUSA brethren, is a chance for a 23+ win season. Sometimes, open bids are all about window dressing. Generally, having 20+ wins helps, and should be a big help in this unusual COVID season.

I think not making up the UNT-ODU series is going to hurt both of those teams chances at an open bid. I also think Marshall gets hurt by not making up the FAU series (2 easy wins?). I can't see the NCAA committee inviting an 18-8 Marshall (likely record, if they run the table but lose the CUSA title game), or a 17-10 (likely) UNT, or a 17-8 (likely) ODU.

No offense, but nobody has a shot at an at-large other than WKU. UAB, La Tech, UNT, and Marshall all could run the table the rest of the year (they are talented enough to do so) and finish with a great record. But none of them have at-large resume wins. WKU does. WKU has four Quad 1 & 2 wins including @ Bama and Memphis. Those wins are what get you in the tournament. WKU is not a lock. Need to win out and lose in title game. The only blemish on the WKU resume is a choke job at Charlotte (up 7 with 3:00 left). If that game is a W, I think the Tops are in right now.

Well, not a lock to happen by any means, however, theoretically if Marshall runs the table, they have 4 quad 1 and 2 wins as well, probably a NET in the 40's, and 20 wins.

Potentially a few more quad 1 and 2 wins depending on who plays who in the tournament.

I don’t disagree with your reasoning, I just do not think the selection committee will agree. If WKU wins out that will include two more Quad 1 wins at UNT. That will put us at 6-2 in Q1/Q2 games. I still do not think that would be enough if all of the Q1/Q2 wins were against CUSA opponents. The win @ Alabama will get much more traction in the committee’s eyes than anything. Memphis on a neutral court will also have a more favorable opinion in the selection room than a win @ Marshall even though we all know the @ Marshall game is a much better win.

The facts are that if you want an at-large in CUSA you have to have a
“wow” win along with some name recognition wins. WKU has a couple of those which is the only reason our name has come up so frequently in the “at-large discussions” by the media. It’s all for not if we drop another game though. I still think we have to get the auto-bid to get in. But it’s fun to talk about.

Agreed. Wins against other teams that will be in the tournament. It’s great CUSA is in a position to provide possible Quad 1 wins in conference but this ain’t the ACC and you need to prove yourself in OOC. See MT.

Agreed that WKU has the only chance for an at-large bid, but I'd feel a lot better about that chance if we had beaten WVU and/or not lost at Charlotte. This also assumes we win out the rest of the way during the remainder of the regular season which is not an easy task.

I've long believed that CUSA should be a consistent 2 bid league. There are enough good programs here with good tradition to be able to make this happen.

(02-16-2021 11:52 PM)topper1296 Wrote:  Agreed that WKU has the only chance for an at-large bid, but I'd feel a lot better about that chance if we had beaten WVU and/or not lost at Charlotte. This also assumes we win out the rest of the way during the remainder of the regular season which is not an easy task.

I've long believed that CUSA should be a consistent 2 bid league. There are enough good programs here with good tradition to be able to make this happen.

Yeah, and honestly it’s probably WVU that would hold much more weight at this point. That Charlotte loss can’t really be criticized when you offset it with wins over WVU and Alabama. I think WKU can still slip up one more time along the way and get in as an at large, it just has to be to the right team. Anybody who is paying attention knows that the last team from CUSA any power school wants to see in their region on selection Sunday is WKU.