https://www.bigblueview.com/2021/2/12/22...r-lawrence

I tend to agree with Kiper on Jones and would also put Carson Wentz and Darnold in this category as well. An odd stat is every QB from 09-16 that's not on their first contract is no longer on the team that has drafted them due to trades or flaming out of the league. Teams don't have the patience in developing QBs. Jets and Browns have gone through at least three QBs a piece since 2010. All the more reason why either a developmental league is needed or teams need to go back to grooming QBs. Plug and starting QBs has been a disaster the past decade. Very few QBs are Rosen and Mahomes.

He's right that a QB's stats are often a reflection of the team and not just the QB.

But expecting teams to give a QB three or more years to develop isn't realistic. If you're an NFL offensive coordinator, for example, you know that it's very likely that within three years, your head coach will get fired or resign, or your head coach will fire you in order to save his own job. And there's the one-in-a-thousand chance you could get a head coaching job yourself.

All of those scenarios work against giving a younger QB 3 or 4 years to see if he can become the next Brady or Rodgers, and in the case of both Brady and Rodgers, when they were rookies, their teams had both unusually stable head coaches and a very good starting QB in front of them.

Another issue is teams drafting at the top tend to be the poorer ones in terms of talent and performance. Since the NFL has been a QB-driven league the pressure is on to find the franchise guy. It's hard enough to adjust to the NFL as a rookie QB but do that in the context of a porous offensive line and lack of weapons that help to take the pressure off the signal caller. It is a "what have you done for me lately" expectation so if a coach can't get the franchise on to winning ways by year three [or sooner depending on the situation] then a new regime comes in who didn't draft the QB. They feel less loyal to that player and want to draft or trade for their own guy who they believe better fits their offensive system. This ties back to what Wedge posted above. Throw in the issue of paying the big time contract after the intitial rook deal to an unproven/questionable player and the financial pressure of the salary cap comes in to play. I would say that we're past the point of a developmental league because there is just too much money at stake and the win now mentality rules.

More than anything else, young quarterbacks are expected to come in and lead the team to wins or at the very least, make the team competitive and entertaining to watch. So, looking at the 2018 NFL draft in the first round of quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are in good shape. Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen did not win enough and their teams were not competitive or entertaining.

The 2015 draft is a good example of how difficult it can be to draft good players. Of the top 20 in the 2015 draft, only three players are still with their original team. The three still with their original teams are Brandon Scherff, Devante Parker and Arik Armstead. The first two players selected were quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. Winston could not stop making mistakes on and off the field. He has passing talent. Mariota had his moments, including a playoff victory over the Chiefs at Kansas City, a game in which the Titans came back from an 18 point deficit to win. He just suffered from inconsistency. With the right teams, both of these guys could become good NFL starting quarterbacks.

Which is a big part of the problem. Quarterbacks need to have help around them and be put in a system that plays to their strengths. Plus, quarterbacks have to love playing football and studying football. You could see JaMarcus Russell coming from a mile away. He said at his press conference announcing that he was turning pro that, "He wanted to play for the team that paid him the most money," and he came into the NFL Combine looking more like an offensive lineman. Johnny Manziel was just too much of a head case and too undisciplined. Teams need to do their homework on these guys as well.