Consider the following:

1. The state of Texas has no program competing at the CFP level in FBS in spite of both Texas and Texas A&M bringing in Brobdingnagian revenues.

2. The 7 Group of 5 Texas programs collectively have 11 bowl bids the last 5 seasons and have gone 0-11 in those games.

3. Texas has no real FCS power and doesn't have a single FCS National Title.

Does the state really just have more college football programs than it can support (in terms of the amount of high school talent in the state)?

(02-12-2021 10:17 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Consider the following:

1. The state of Texas has no program competing at the CFP level in FBS in spite of both Texas and Texas A&M bringing in Brobdingnagian revenues.

2. The 7 Group of 5 Texas programs collectively have 11 bowl bids the last 5 seasons and have gone 0-11 in those games.

3. Texas has no real FCS power and doesn't have a single FCS National Title.

Does the state really just have more college football programs than it can support (in terms of the amount of high school talent in the state)?

Id say its more to do with out of state programs poaching Texas kids. A decade ago UT could chose who they wanted in the state. Now they have to compete with OSU, Bama, LSU, Georgia, Clemson. Texas used to win those battles. Now they dont.

If Texas liked football as much as the rest of the country, they would have no problem supporting their college football programs.

Texas has 8.9% US population.
9.2% of FBS (12 of 130)
6.3% of FCS (8 of 127)
3.6% of D-2 (6 of 165)
4.0% of D-3 (10 of 246)
4.2% of NAIA (4 of 96)
7.4% of junior colleges (5 of 54)

Texas is probably in the bottom 10 of states when ranked on number of college football teams per capita.

(02-12-2021 10:17 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  3. Texas has no real FCS power and doesn't have a single FCS National Title.

Sam Houston State was the second winningest program of the 2010s in the whole of the FCS division (behind North Dakota State) with six semifinal appearances in the 10 years of the decade of which two turned into title game appearances... SHSU also had two Walter Payton Award winners during that time...

2018 and 2019 did not go the Bearkats' way (arguably due to injury issues) and they did not make the playoffs but I believe the program will start this decade with a playoff berth and a Southland championship.

No national title, but I would say you have a relative FCS power.

(02-12-2021 10:43 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  If Texas liked football as much as the rest of the country, they would have no problem supporting their college football programs.

Texas has 8.9% US population.
9.2% of FBS (12 of 130)
6.3% of FCS (8 of 127)
3.6% of D-2 (6 of 165)
4.0% of D-3 (10 of 246)
4.2% of NAIA (4 of 96)
7.4% of junior colleges (5 of 54)

Texas is probably in the bottom 10 of states when ranked on number of college football teams per capita.

You forgot the new Texas team in North American University out of Houston. They are going to get SACs for them to join NAIA in the future. They are independent right now.

(02-12-2021 10:43 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  If Texas liked football as much as the rest of the country, they would have no problem supporting their college football programs.

Texas has 8.9% US population.
9.2% of FBS (12 of 130)
6.3% of FCS (8 of 127)
3.6% of D-2 (6 of 165)
4.0% of D-3 (10 of 246)
4.2% of NAIA (4 of 96)
7.4% of junior colleges (5 of 54)

Texas is probably in the bottom 10 of states when ranked on number of college football teams per capita.

I get that and part of it comes from having a large Hispanic population but the state really supports high school football and even a lot of the G5 Texas programs have shown they can draw big crowds when they're doing well. And getting nice crowds versus winning need not be a chicken/egg problem when you have money and A&M and Texas have that, and the G5 Texas teams seem to have it as well.

Just because the University of Texas has had a string of coaches since Mac Brown that didn't get the job done is no reason to discredit college football in Texas.

Also as much as it pains me to do so, one could argue that a&m " competed at the CFP level" considering they were ranked 5th. I'm glad they didnt make it though. They had their shot at bama.

(02-12-2021 12:01 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  Also as much as it pains me to do so, one could argue that a&m " competed at the CFP level" considering they were ranked 5th. I'm glad they didnt make it though. They had their shot at bama.

I would’ve preferred them to Notre Dame and Ohio State. Cincy also deserved a shot.

All things are cyclical. We also have too many players leaving the state. Other schools must have a higher salary cap than us.

(02-12-2021 12:29 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  All things are cyclical. We also have too many players leaving the state. Other schools must have a higher salary cap than us.

I'd be curious to see how impacted Texas is by recruits leaving compared to other states (on a percentage basis). I would imagine California, Florida, Georgia and Ohio have a similar percentage of recruits who leave their home state to go to college. Seems like every school in the FBS have Florida recruits. A lot of California Kids go to Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Notre Dame, etc. I doubt Texas is that much different.

(02-12-2021 10:17 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Consider the following:

1. The state of Texas has no program competing at the CFP level in FBS in spite of both Texas and Texas A&M bringing in Brobdingnagian revenues.

First, very few teams have made the CFP. IIRC, there are a total of about 14 teams that have made it over the seven seasons. Lots of big names outside of Texas - Michigan, USC, Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Miami, Wisconsin come immediately to mind - have not made the playoffs.

Second, I seriously doubt that either AM or Texas has missed the playoffs because of talent that passed them over for G5 schools in the state. I just don't believe that.

The main issue is coaching. Since Mack left, Texas has not had top level coaching, and everyone needs that. Alabama was a nothing program in a national sense from the late 90s to the late 00s because it had poor coaching. The jury is still out on Jimbo at AM, he has come very close.

(02-12-2021 01:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 10:17 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Consider the following:

1. The state of Texas has no program competing at the CFP level in FBS in spite of both Texas and Texas A&M bringing in Brobdingnagian revenues.

First, very few teams have made the CFP. IIRC, there are a total of about 14 teams that have made it over the seven seasons. Lots of big names outside of Texas - Michigan, USC, Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Miami, Wisconsin come immediately to mind - have not made the playoffs.

Second, I seriously doubt that either AM or Texas has missed the playoffs because of talent that passed them over for G5 schools in the state. I just don't believe that.

The main issue is coaching. Since Mack left, Texas has not had top level coaching, and everyone needs that. Alabama was a nothing program in a national sense from the late 90s to the late 00s because it had poor coaching. The jury is still out on Jimbo at AM, he has come very close.

I get that you usually need elite HCs to win a national championship, but it's not just that A&M and Texas aren't on the same plane as Alabama and Ohio State as far as accomplishments. How many of Oregon, Stanford, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU could you say have done less than them?

Where do you think A&M and Texas would rank nationally in accomplishments since Texas' last title from 2005? Probably not even in the top 15. That to me is more than just "we haven't found the right coach yet".

(02-12-2021 01:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 10:17 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Consider the following:

1. The state of Texas has no program competing at the CFP level in FBS in spite of both Texas and Texas A&M bringing in Brobdingnagian revenues.

First, very few teams have made the CFP. IIRC, there are a total of about 14 teams that have made it over the seven seasons. Lots of big names outside of Texas - Michigan, USC, Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Miami, Wisconsin come immediately to mind - have not made the playoffs.

This is true.

However, you can look outside the CFP and find the same result.

In the past 5 years, a state with 5 P5 programs (7.7% of the total) and 12 FBS programs (9% of the total) and 8.9% of US population should have had 4-5 teams finish top-10 and 10-12 teams finish top 25. But Texas only had 3 top-10s and 7 top-25 finishes in the AP poll.



Texas teams ranked in top-10 in the final AP poll in the past 5 years:
Texas A&M, 2020 (4th)
Texas, 2018 (9th)
TCU, 2017 (9th)

Texas teams ranked in top-25 in the final AP poll in the past 5 years:
Texas (3 times)
Texas A&M (2 times)
TCU (1)
Baylor (1)


This has not always been the case.

From 2011-2015, Texas had 5 top-10s and 12 top-25s, which puts them right about average for a state its size.

From 2006-2010, Texas had 6 top-10s and 12 top-25s. Given the fact that the state was smaller then & had fewer FBS programs, this was above-average for a state its size.

Attendance by school, 2019 season:

FBS
Texas A&M: 101,608 (99% capacity)
Texas: 96,306 (96%)
Texas Tech: 53,418 (88%)
Baylor: 45,517 (91%)
TCU: 42,881 (91%)
Houston: 25,518 (63%)
SMU: 23,633 (73%)
Rice: 22,212 (37%)
North Texas: 21,358 (71%)
UTSA: 19,904 (31%)
Texas St.: 17,140 (57%)
UTEP: 17,093 (33%)

FCS:
Texas Southern: 9,204
Stephen F. Austin St: 8,324
Abilene Christian: 7,882
Lamar: 7,173
Prairie View A&M: 6,364
Sam Houston St.: 4,378
Incarnate Word: 3,274
Houston Baptist: 2,322

Division II:
Tarleton St: 8,352
West Texas A&M: 7,646
Midwestern St: 5,503
TAMU-Commerce: 5,450
TAMU-Kingsville: 4,422
TAMU-Permian Basin: 4,178
Angelo St.: 3,421

Division III:
Mary Hardin-Baylor: 3,575
Hardin-Simmons: 3,163
East Texas Baptist: 2,725
Southwestern: 2,196
Trinity: 1,975
Texas Lutheran: 1,646
Howard Payne: 1,561
Austin: 1,427
Sul Ross St.: 1,302
McMurry: 1,191

(02-12-2021 02:14 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 01:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 10:17 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Consider the following:

1. The state of Texas has no program competing at the CFP level in FBS in spite of both Texas and Texas A&M bringing in Brobdingnagian revenues.

First, very few teams have made the CFP. IIRC, there are a total of about 14 teams that have made it over the seven seasons. Lots of big names outside of Texas - Michigan, USC, Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Miami, Wisconsin come immediately to mind - have not made the playoffs.

Second, I seriously doubt that either AM or Texas has missed the playoffs because of talent that passed them over for G5 schools in the state. I just don't believe that.

The main issue is coaching. Since Mack left, Texas has not had top level coaching, and everyone needs that. Alabama was a nothing program in a national sense from the late 90s to the late 00s because it had poor coaching. The jury is still out on Jimbo at AM, he has come very close.

I get that you usually need elite HCs to win a national championship, but it's not just that A&M and Texas aren't on the same plane as Alabama and Ohio State as far as accomplishments. How many of Oregon, Stanford, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU could you say have done less than them?

Where do you think A&M and Texas would rank nationally in accomplishments since Texas' last title from 2005? Probably not even in the top 15. That to me is more than just "we haven't found the right coach yet".

Well considering Texas played in the 2009 BCS championship game I'd say thats a lot more than most schools. That alone probably puts them in top 15 as far as ranking accomplishments sine 2005.

People from blue states have been moving there for years, the talent and toughness pool is getting diluted...

Didn't Texas A&M finish the regular season 5th in the CFP poll? And many argued they should have been in over ND. You can't say Texas A&M isn't competing for a CFP spot when they finished just outside of the CFP.

(02-12-2021 04:22 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  Didn't Texas A&M finish the regular season 5th in the CFP poll? And many argued they should have been in over ND. You can't say Texas A&M isn't competing for a CFP spot when they finished just outside of the CFP.

That’s their once in a decade season. I’m still not sold on A&M since 2020 was not a regular season by any metric. I also don’t expect LSU and Auburn to be down for long and now the Mississippi schools have Kiffin and Leach but there’s always Arkansas which is an automatic win in the West.

(02-12-2021 04:02 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  People from blue states have been moving there for years, the talent and toughness pool is getting diluted...

Yeah because Florida is not getting people from blue states. All of freaking NYC is in Fort Lauderdale or as my two NY friends call Broward County, the 6th borough.