(02-11-2021 03:44 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote: I think this is a clear indicator that the big boys in college football are expecting CFP expansion soon. The current system all but guarantees a 2-loss team is out of contention. But expansion to 8 and beyond will be a lot more forgiving, and if those two losses are to fellow top ten teams, big name schools will get the benefit of the doubt from the committee.
Thoughts?
These were the top 9 teams in the final 2020 CFP poll:
1 Alabama.......11-0
2 Clemson.......10-1
3 Ohio State.....6-0
4 Notre Dame..10-1
5 Texas A&M.....8-1
6 Oklahoma......8-2
7 Florida...........8-3
8 Cincinnati.......9-0
9 Georgia..........7-2
If the "powers that be" were to have designed an expanded 8-team 2020 CFP series their way, these might have been the matchups:
#1 Alabama vs. #9 (7-2) Georgia
#2 Clemson vs. #7 (8-3) Florida
#3 OSU vs. #6 (8-2) Oklahoma
#4 Notre Dame vs. (8-1) #5 TAMU
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P5 teams that schedule an OOC game vs. a top-tier P5 team may be able to make the playoffs in such a scenario, but only if they can make it through the season with a maximum of 3 losses (8-3 Florida would have made the field).
However, most of the P5 teams with 2 or 3 losses wouldn't have made it into an 8-team CFP series: Iowa St (3 losses), UNC (3), Northwestern (2), Iowa (2), Miami (2), Texas (3), OK St. (3), NC St. (3), & Oregon (2).
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The pattern was even clearer in 2019:
#1 LSU 13-0
#2 OSU 13-0
#3 Clemson 13-0
#4 Oklahoma 12-1
#5 Georgia 11-2 (vs. 12-1 Oklahoma)
#6 Oregon 11-2 (vs. 13-0 Clemson)
#7 Baylor 11-2 (vs. 13-0 OSU)
#8 Wisconsin 10-3 (vs. 13-0 LSU)
These eight CFP Top 25 teams with 2 or 3 losses wouldn't have made the field: UF (2 losses), PSU (2), Utah (2), Auburn (3), Alabama (2), Michigan (3), Notre Dame (2), Iowa (3)
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Only a few of the numerous P5 teams that lose 2 or 3 games will make it into the playoffs, and if they do, they will tend to play a #1, #2, #3, or #4 seed in the first round of the playoffs.
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