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Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Exclamation Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
I'm listening to some local radio, and they are talking about how some big-name programs are putting together future schedules that are jam packed with marquee matchups, and are replacing buy games with mid-tier P5 opponents. Examples:

Notre Dame: 2023 - Ohio State/Clemson (on top of their usual USC/Stanford)

Florida: 2031 - Texas, Notre Dame, Florida State, Arizona State

Georgia: On top of their annual game with Georgia Tech, they have multiple games vs. Clemson, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Texas coming up. 2028 - Texas, Florida State, Georgia Tech. 2029 - Texas, Clemson, Georgia Tech. 2030 - Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia Tech. 2031 - Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech

Now, I realize these games that are scheduled years in advance. A home-and-home with a fellow blue blood can turn into a single neutral site game, and years with loaded schedules might lighten up as agreements are negotiated and games are pushed around. But I don't recall blue blood schools being so willing to play each other so often, and with multiple marquee opponents scheduled in single seasons.

What's my point? I think this is a clear indicator that the big boys in college football are expecting CFP expansion soon. The current system all but guarantees a 2-loss team is out of contention. But expansion to 8 and beyond will be a lot more forgiving, and if those two losses are to fellow top ten teams, big name schools will get the benefit of the doubt from the committee.

Thoughts?
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2021 03:48 PM by robertfoshizzle.)
02-11-2021 03:44 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
IDK about it being related to expansion. It’s been made clear the CFP committee values P5 matchups. We are going to see P5 schools schedule 10 P5 teams a year (counting conference games). That schedule will get you in over a team that plays only 9 P5 games.

This is also going to cause problems for G5 schools. They will have fewer opportunities to schedule P5 games. The schools that rely on buy games to fund their athletic department are going to suffer.
02-11-2021 04:59 PM
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NoQuarterBrigade Offline
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RE: Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
They are just preparing for when they sever ties from us and form their own football division. Don’t pay any attention to that.
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02-11-2021 05:29 PM
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Ramblin Wreck Offline
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RE: Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
(02-11-2021 03:44 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  I'm listening to some local radio, and they are talking about how some big-name programs are putting together future schedules that are jam packed with marquee matchups, and are replacing buy games with mid-tier P5 opponents. Examples:

Notre Dame: 2023 - Ohio State/Clemson (on top of their usual USC/Stanford)

Florida: 2031 - Texas, Notre Dame, Florida State, Arizona State

Georgia: On top of their annual game with Georgia Tech, they have multiple games vs. Clemson, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Texas coming up. 2028 - Texas, Florida State, Georgia Tech. 2029 - Texas, Clemson, Georgia Tech. 2030 - Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia Tech. 2031 - Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech

Now, I realize these games that are scheduled years in advance. A home-and-home with a fellow blue blood can turn into a single neutral site game, and years with loaded schedules might lighten up as agreements are negotiated and games are pushed around. But I don't recall blue blood schools being so willing to play each other so often, and with multiple marquee opponents scheduled in single seasons.

What's my point? I think this is a clear indicator that the big boys in college football are expecting CFP expansion soon. The current system all but guarantees a 2-loss team is out of contention. But expansion to 8 and beyond will be a lot more forgiving, and if those two losses are to fellow top ten teams, big name schools will get the benefit of the doubt from the committee.

Thoughts?

Alabama has a pretty good OOC line of home and home games that include Texas, Wisconsin, Florida State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Arizona and Oklahoma. Saban has always pushed for more SEC games and less G5 teams. He proved this season that they can succeed without playing the G5. If anything, I would see it as teams positioning themselves to maintain home attendance. Even before COVID the trend in college football attendance has been down. You have all these major programs with 90,000 and 100,000 seat stadiums they need to fill. Big pressure from the communities whose restaurants and shops have the equivalent of Christmas shopping season at the mall during home games. I'm not wild about watching a game against Western Kentucky or Colorado State, but would rather spend $150 watching a team that builds the resume.
02-11-2021 09:23 PM
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BullTime Offline
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RE: Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
[/quote]

Alabama has a pretty good OOC line of home and home games that include Texas, Wisconsin, Florida State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Arizona and Oklahoma. Saban has always pushed for more SEC games and less G5 teams. He proved this season that they can succeed without playing the G5. If anything, I would see it as teams positioning themselves to maintain home attendance. Even before COVID the trend in college football attendance has been down. You have all these major programs with 90,000 and 100,000 seat stadiums they need to fill. Big pressure from the communities whose restaurants and shops have the equivalent of Christmas shopping season at the mall during home games. I'm not wild about watching a game against Western Kentucky or Colorado State, but would rather spend $150 watching a team that builds the resume.
[/quote]

You forgot to mention that Alabama is playing USF 3 times as part of the OOC schedule. COGS02-13-banana
02-11-2021 11:15 PM
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PuddlePirate Offline
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RE: Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
(02-11-2021 03:44 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  I'm listening to some local radio, and they are talking about how some big-name programs are putting together future schedules that are jam packed with marquee matchups, and are replacing buy games with mid-tier P5 opponents. Examples:

Notre Dame: 2023 - Ohio State/Clemson (on top of their usual USC/Stanford)

Florida: 2031 - Texas, Notre Dame, Florida State, Arizona State

Georgia: On top of their annual game with Georgia Tech, they have multiple games vs. Clemson, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Texas coming up. 2028 - Texas, Florida State, Georgia Tech. 2029 - Texas, Clemson, Georgia Tech. 2030 - Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia Tech. 2031 - Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech

Now, I realize these games that are scheduled years in advance. A home-and-home with a fellow blue blood can turn into a single neutral site game, and years with loaded schedules might lighten up as agreements are negotiated and games are pushed around. But I don't recall blue blood schools being so willing to play each other so often, and with multiple marquee opponents scheduled in single seasons.

What's my point? I think this is a clear indicator that the big boys in college football are expecting CFP expansion soon. The current system all but guarantees a 2-loss team is out of contention. But expansion to 8 and beyond will be a lot more forgiving, and if those two losses are to fellow top ten teams, big name schools will get the benefit of the doubt from the committee.

Thoughts?

Clemson-Georgia is a rivalry goes back a hell of a long time. They've played close to 70 times I think. I wouldn't read too much into that particular pile of tea leaves.
02-12-2021 04:35 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
(02-11-2021 04:59 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  IDK about it being related to expansion. It’s been made clear the CFP committee values P5 matchups. We are going to see P5 schools schedule 10 P5 teams a year (counting conference games).

That schedule will get you in over a team that plays only 9 P5 games.

Coaches who schedule tough OOC games vs. P5 teams are taking a calculated risk, because a super-tough schedule can pay off or can just as easily backfire. All it takes to knock a team out of contention is a couple of injuries to key players, or an upset loss along the way.

Consider what's happened to the Big Ten, for example, since Penn State and Nebraska joined the conference to make it an even tough conference than it already was:

Some of the traditional FB powerhouses of the Big Ten have lost a much higher % of their conference games than they used to lose before PSU & Nebraska joined.

Playing a tougher FB schedule has made it harder, not easier to end the season as a Top 10 team.

2015:

Michigan 6-2
Wisconsin 6-2
Nebraska 3-5
Penn State 4-4

2016:

Michigan 7-2
Wisconsin 7-2
Nebraska 6-3
Iowa 6-3
Michigan State 1-8

2017:

Penn State 7-2
Michigan State 7-2
Michigan 5-4
Iowa 4-5
Nebraska 3-6

2018:

Penn State 6-3
Michigan State 5-4
Iowa 5-4
Wisconsin 5-4
Nebraska 3-6

2019:

Penn State 7-2
Michigan 6-3
Michigan State 4-5
Wisconsin 7-2
Iowa 6-3
Nebraska 3-6

2020:

Penn State 4-5
Michigan 2-4
Michigan State 2-5
Iowa 6-2
Wisconsin 3-3
Nebraska 3-5

The concentration of more FB powerhouses in fewer (5, as opposed to 7 top conferences when the BEC and SWC existed) conferences and the increasing exclusivity of the P5 programs has only benefited a few of the P5 FB schools.

Quote:This is also going to cause problems for G5 schools. They will have fewer opportunities to schedule P5 games. The schools that rely on buy games to fund their athletic department are going to suffer.

It's hard to know how all of this will impact the G5 schools. It's possible that it will actually make it easier for more of the best G5 schools to wind up in the Final Top 10, 15, or 20.

Consider what has happened since the P5/G5 split took place in 2013.

Some people had predicted that the P5/G5 split would have made it harder than ever for G5 teams to be counted among the elite, but the trend has actually gone in the opposite direction.

In 2013, only one of the current non-P5 schools (UCF) was in the final AP Top 25
. In 2014 and 2015, there were three, but in 2018 there were six, in 2019 there were seven, and in 2020, there were 8 non-P5 teams in the final AP Top 25:

#8 Cincinnati (9-1)
#11 BYU (11-1)
#14 Coastal Carolina (11-1)
#15 Louisiana (10-1)
#17 Liberty (10-1)
#23 Ball State (7-1)
#24 San Jose State (7-1)
#25 Buffalo (6-1)
02-12-2021 05:47 PM
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panama Offline
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Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
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02-13-2021 06:51 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
(02-11-2021 04:59 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  IDK about it being related to expansion. It’s been made clear the CFP committee values P5 matchups. We are going to see P5 schools schedule 10 P5 teams a year (counting conference games). That schedule will get you in over a team that plays only 9 P5 games.

This is also going to cause problems for G5 schools. They will have fewer opportunities to schedule P5 games. The schools that rely on buy games to fund their athletic department are going to suffer.

I don't know. It's hard to argue that the examples the OP listed (Notre Dame, Florida, Georgia) needed any more help making the CFP if they ran the table with their current slates. The SEC in particular pretty much has a spot reserved for their champion, no matter how bad, and Alabama if they miss out on the CCG due to a technicality.
02-15-2021 05:01 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
(02-11-2021 03:44 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  I think this is a clear indicator that the big boys in college football are expecting CFP expansion soon. The current system all but guarantees a 2-loss team is out of contention. But expansion to 8 and beyond will be a lot more forgiving, and if those two losses are to fellow top ten teams, big name schools will get the benefit of the doubt from the committee.

Thoughts?

These were the top 9 teams in the final 2020 CFP poll:

1 Alabama.......11-0
2 Clemson.......10-1
3 Ohio State.....6-0
4 Notre Dame..10-1
5 Texas A&M.....8-1
6 Oklahoma......8-2
7 Florida...........8-3
8 Cincinnati.......9-0
9 Georgia..........7-2

If the "powers that be" were to have designed an expanded 8-team 2020 CFP series their way, these might have been the matchups:

#1 Alabama vs. #9 (7-2) Georgia
#2 Clemson vs. #7 (8-3) Florida
#3 OSU vs. #6 (8-2) Oklahoma
#4 Notre Dame vs. (8-1) #5 TAMU

.

P5 teams that schedule an OOC game vs. a top-tier P5 team may be able to make the playoffs in such a scenario, but only if they can make it through the season with a maximum of 3 losses (8-3 Florida would have made the field).

However, most of the P5 teams with 2 or 3 losses wouldn't have made it into an 8-team CFP series: Iowa St (3 losses), UNC (3), Northwestern (2), Iowa (2), Miami (2), Texas (3), OK St. (3), NC St. (3), & Oregon (2).

.

The pattern was even clearer in 2019:

#1 LSU 13-0
#2 OSU 13-0
#3 Clemson 13-0
#4 Oklahoma 12-1
#5 Georgia 11-2 (vs. 12-1 Oklahoma)
#6 Oregon 11-2 (vs. 13-0 Clemson)
#7 Baylor 11-2 (vs. 13-0 OSU)
#8 Wisconsin 10-3 (vs. 13-0 LSU)

These eight CFP Top 25 teams with 2 or 3 losses wouldn't have made the field: UF (2 losses), PSU (2), Utah (2), Auburn (3), Alabama (2), Michigan (3), Notre Dame (2), Iowa (3)

.

Only a few of the numerous P5 teams that lose 2 or 3 games will make it into the playoffs, and if they do, they will tend to play a #1, #2, #3, or #4 seed in the first round of the playoffs.

.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2021 11:26 AM by jedclampett.)
02-16-2021 10:42 AM
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PirateJP Offline
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RE: Blue Bloods Packing Non-Conference Schedules - Sign of CFP Expansion?
The only difference between a 4 and 8 team playoff this year would be Cincy coming in at #9 instead of #8. Georgia would have jumped them in a heart beat.
02-16-2021 03:17 PM
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