At the end of the day, everybody in the sport wants more revenue so moves will happen that further the position of the select few. With that being said, who moves next? I continue to believe that a consolidation of the major conferences is coming but not via expansion. In my mind, the SEC, ACC, and B1G are content for the most part. However, I do not believe the Big 12 or Pac-12 are. So here is my idea: Neither the Big 12 brand (only been around since the 90s) nor the Pac-12 brand (which has been the Pac-8 and Pac-10) mean enough to the major players in either conference that they couldn't shed them for something different.

Here is what I propose: a 14-team conference that spans the West Coast, Great Plains, and Southwest.

Who would be included: Oregon, Washington, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech

Who would miss out: Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor

The schools that miss out would form the core of the new Pac-12 (that is no longer a power conference) and they would invite Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico, SMU, and Houston.

Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

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(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

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If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

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If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

Then came state politics....

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

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If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

They won't have a choice. Their legislatures will not let them. Much like Texas and Oklahoma can't leave their little brothers.

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(02-11-2021 02:23 PM)mlb Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

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If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

They won't have a choice. Their legislatures will not let them. Much like Texas and Oklahoma can't leave their little brothers.

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Somehow I don't think this would apply in Ohio

(02-11-2021 02:32 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:23 PM)mlb Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

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If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

They won't have a choice. Their legislatures will not let them. Much like Texas and Oklahoma can't leave their little brothers.

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Somehow I don't think this would apply in Ohio

Yeah. Clearly. Freaking OSU.

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(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

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If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

There's another scenario in which those schools are not "left behind" to be excluded from the power conferences. That is, this new conference (the Pacific Southwest Conference) becomes one of the P6:

Pacific: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Cal, Southern Cal and UCLA
Southwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas

The PAC rebuilds by adding Boise State, BYU and San Diego State and retains its "P" status.

The Big XII rebuilds by adding Houston, Navy, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF and also retains its "P" status.

But "P" status in a world with an 8 team playoff only confers an autobid for its champion, but not necessarily a contract with an NY6 bowl, as the bowls are no longer a part of the CFP.

The AAC rebuilds by adding Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB and Rice and remains a G5 conference.

The CFP now includes the 6 "P" champions, any other team ranked in the Top Ten, plus the highest ranked at-large teams.

The ten year average Sagarin ratings of the new P6 become:

SEC 81
PSW 80
B1G 76
ACC 75
PAC 74
XII 73

and the G5:

AAC 62
MWC 62
MAC 59
SBC 58
USA 57

No more tweener conferences.

Oklahoma

No matter what they decide to do in 2025 it will be seismic.

1) stay in the Big 12 (seismic)
2) move to the Big Ten (seismic)
3) move to the SEC (seismic)

Notre Dame moving to the ACC as a full member would be significant also, as it would signal a rise in the value of the ACC.

Texas moving to the B1G or SEC would be even more seismic than Oklahoma, but they almost certainly would not move before Oklahoma makes a decision to leave. So again it falls on Oklahoma.

I think y'all are making this too complicated. The Pac-12 renews first, so they get a crappy deal and then ESPN offers the B12 more money to take 6 from the Pac-12.

Big 16
East : Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State
West : USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Iowa State, WVU

(02-11-2021 03:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

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If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

There's another scenario in which those schools are not "left behind" to be excluded from the power conferences. That is, this new conference (the Pacific Southwest Conference) becomes one of the P6:

Pacific: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Cal, Southern Cal and UCLA
Southwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas

The PAC rebuilds by adding Boise State, BYU and San Diego State and retains its "P" status.

The Big XII rebuilds by adding Houston, Navy, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF and also retains its "P" status.

In your scenario, I think the revamped PAC *might* be able to retain P-status. Probably not but might.

But I don't think your revamped Big 12 would have any chance of retaining P-status.

(02-11-2021 04:31 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think y'all are making this too complicated. The Pac-12 renews first, so they get a crappy deal and then ESPN offers the B12 more money to take 6 from the Pac-12.

Big 16
East : Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State
West : USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Iowa State, WVU

Don't you think it would go the other way with Texas, Texas Tech, OU, and OSU going to the Pac-16?

(02-11-2021 03:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

There's another scenario in which those schools are not "left behind" to be excluded from the power conferences. That is, this new conference (the Pacific Southwest Conference) becomes one of the P6:

Pacific: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Cal, Southern Cal and UCLA
Southwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas

The PAC rebuilds by adding Boise State, BYU and San Diego State and retains its "P" status.

The Big XII rebuilds by adding Houston, Navy, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF and also retains its "P" status.

But "P" status in a world with an 8 team playoff only confers an autobid for its champion, but not necessarily a contract with an NY6 bowl, as the bowls are no longer a part of the CFP.

The AAC rebuilds by adding Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB and Rice and remains a G5 conference.

The CFP now includes the 6 "P" champions, any other team ranked in the Top Ten, plus the highest ranked at-large teams.

The ten year average Sagarin ratings of the new P6 become:

SEC 81
PSW 80
B1G 76
ACC 75
PAC 74
XII 73

and the G5:

AAC 62
MWC 62
MAC 59
SBC 58
USA 57

No more tweener conferences.

So your PAC would have only 9 members and the Big 12 would have 10?

(02-11-2021 04:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 03:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

There's another scenario in which those schools are not "left behind" to be excluded from the power conferences. That is, this new conference (the Pacific Southwest Conference) becomes one of the P6:

Pacific: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Cal, Southern Cal and UCLA
Southwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas

The PAC rebuilds by adding Boise State, BYU and San Diego State and retains its "P" status.

The Big XII rebuilds by adding Houston, Navy, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF and also retains its "P" status.

In your scenario, I think the revamped PAC *might* be able to retain P-status. Probably not but might.

But I don't think your revamped Big 12 would have any chance of retaining P-status.

Agreed, but I also don't see TCU getting picked over Colorado and the Arizona schools being left out.

(02-11-2021 04:39 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 04:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 03:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

There's another scenario in which those schools are not "left behind" to be excluded from the power conferences. That is, this new conference (the Pacific Southwest Conference) becomes one of the P6:

Pacific: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Cal, Southern Cal and UCLA
Southwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas

The PAC rebuilds by adding Boise State, BYU and San Diego State and retains its "P" status.

The Big XII rebuilds by adding Houston, Navy, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF and also retains its "P" status.

In your scenario, I think the revamped PAC *might* be able to retain P-status. Probably not but might.

But I don't think your revamped Big 12 would have any chance of retaining P-status.

Agreed, but I also don't see TCU getting picked over Colorado and the Arizona schools being left out.

I agree, if some kind or realignment occurs and a "P" spot comes down to TCU or Colorado, Colorado would get the nod. And there's no way the Arizona schools will ever be anything but in a "P" conference. So I don't see any realignment happening that does so. I was just going along with Ken-D's scenario and playing that out.

(02-11-2021 04:36 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 04:31 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think y'all are making this too complicated. The Pac-12 renews first, so they get a crappy deal and then ESPN offers the B12 more money to take 6 from the Pac-12.

Big 16
East : Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State
West : USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Iowa State, WVU

Don't you think it would go the other way with Texas, Texas Tech, OU, and OSU going to the Pac-16?

It could, it all depends on the TV money. If there are some new bidders that drive up Pac-12 money way over B12 money then sure.

If the New Pac-12 commissioner can't find a partner for the Pac-12 network, then USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon may want there T3 rights back like the B12 schools.

Really I have no idea what's going to happen but a new conference forming from the best of the Pac-12/B12 is not happening. It will be consolidation one way or the other.

(02-11-2021 02:23 PM)mlb Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.cannot

They won't have a choice. Their legislatures will not let them. Much like Texas and Oklahoma can't leave their little brothers.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

Why do people continually post that Oklahoma cannot leave Oklahoma State when they do not have a clue what they are talking about???.

(02-11-2021 04:12 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Oklahoma

No matter what they decide to do in 2025 it will be seismic.

1) stay in the Big 12 (seismic)
2) move to the Big Ten (seismic)
3) move to the SEC (seismic)

Notre Dame moving to the ACC as a full member would be significant also, as it would signal a rise in the value of the ACC.

Texas moving to the B1G or SEC would be even more seismic than Oklahoma, but they almost certainly would not move before Oklahoma makes a decision to leave. So again it falls on Oklahoma.

Or, you could find the rise of a new Frankenweenie Power Conference is possible. The PAC and B12 GOR's expire within months of each other so the formation of an entirely new conference is possible and with that combined appeal then perhaps Notre Dame has another option. After all their contract is the easiest to by out or fulfill inasmuch as it only impacts 2 ACC games one year and 3 the next. It is a 5 game obligation to the ACC but ND's home games are their own so in reality only the away ACC portion of the 5 games is ACC money.

Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

That's a conference that can knock down 55 million per school in media payouts and the formation of it prevents the SEC and Big 10 from expanding the revenue gap. It also allows for enough economic pressure for the SEC and Big 10 to expand with additions for reasons beyond revenue, namely market reach:

With the Notre Dame salvation gone for the ACC hey have some schools who also make some moves, but not the schools with the most value. With no shot at Notre Dame perhaps the Big 10 looks to Syracuse for a larger New York share and picks up Virginia. Or perhaps they grab Atlanta with Georgia Tech and pick up Virginia. North Carolina and Duke bail for more money and get paired with Kentucky in the SEC.

Now a 4th P conference emerges:

Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Kansas State, Miami, Oklahoma State, T.C.U.,

Now Notre Dame stands an equal partner in the new conference, has access to the games they once needed flexibility to keep, makes a lot more money, and that conference immediately becomes an academic rival of the Big 10 with 12 AAU schools, Notre Dame and Oklahoma, and with only Arizona State and Texas Tech as laggards in that regard.

What it brings is balance. Promote the Florida twins to the 4th emerging conference and you have 4 sixteen member conferences that can stand on its own.

Let's say the Pac-16 happens and other power conferences do not expand, what happens to the remaining schools?

Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia, TCU, and Baylor

Those six plus six other schools would not be a power conference. Would Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia try to get into the Big East to salvage power hoops and go independent in football or would they bite the bullet and hope the Big 12 name keeps them as a power conference in basketball?

(02-11-2021 03:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:16 PM)mlb Wrote:  Guessing that Oregon, Washington, and Kansas would not be allowed to leave Oregon State, Washington State, and Kansas State.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

There's another scenario in which those schools are not "left behind" to be excluded from the power conferences. That is, this new conference (the Pacific Southwest Conference) becomes one of the P6:

Pacific: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Cal, Southern Cal and UCLA
Southwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas

The PAC rebuilds by adding Boise State, BYU and San Diego State and retains its "P" status.

The Big XII rebuilds by adding Houston, Navy, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF and also retains its "P" status.

But "P" status in a world with an 8 team playoff only confers an autobid for its champion, but not necessarily a contract with an NY6 bowl, as the bowls are no longer a part of the CFP.

The AAC rebuilds by adding Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB and Rice and remains a G5 conference.

The CFP now includes the 6 "P" champions, any other team ranked in the Top Ten, plus the highest ranked at-large teams.

The ten year average Sagarin ratings of the new P6 become:

SEC 81
PSW 80
B1G 76
ACC 75
PAC 74
XII 73

and the G5:

AAC 62
MWC 62
MAC 59
SBC 58
USA 57

No more tweener conferences.

A reinvented Big 12 of Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Houston, Navy, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF might be able to garner "power" status, but I rather doubt it. Add Colorado State and Air Force (with Boise, BYU and SDSU to the Pac12 in your hypothetical) to go to 12 and that would be a strong conference overall (though perhaps still not a "power" football league).