(02-11-2021 08:35 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 07:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 04:36 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 03:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 02:18 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  If it's money or little brother, all three of those schools will pick money.

There's another scenario in which those schools are not "left behind" to be excluded from the power conferences. That is, this new conference (the Pacific Southwest Conference) becomes one of the P6:

Pacific: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Cal, Southern Cal and UCLA
Southwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas

The PAC rebuilds by adding Boise State, BYU and San Diego State and retains its "P" status.

The Big XII rebuilds by adding Houston, Navy, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF and also retains its "P" status.

But "P" status in a world with an 8 team playoff only confers an autobid for its champion, but not necessarily a contract with an NY6 bowl, as the bowls are no longer a part of the CFP.

The AAC rebuilds by adding Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB and Rice and remains a G5 conference.

The CFP now includes the 6 "P" champions, any other team ranked in the Top Ten, plus the highest ranked at-large teams.

The ten year average Sagarin ratings of the new P6 become:

SEC 81
PSW 80
B1G 76
ACC 75
PAC 74
XII 73

and the G5:

AAC 62
MWC 62
MAC 59
SBC 58
USA 57

No more tweener conferences.

So your PAC would have only 9 members and the Big 12 would have 10?

Yes. Because that's all you can come up with if there are to be 6 P-conferences. There is not a single school with a 10 year strength rating of 70 left in the G5. Those two conferences would have added all seven schools from the G5 that are rated higher than that threshold.

Keep in mind two things. These only are P conferences in a world with an 8 team CFP. And, I doubt any of this is likely to ever happen because I don't believe the premise of the OP that there would be a PAC/XII conference in the foreseeable future.

Since you have all of the Sagarin rankings, how about looking up these 6 conferences:

PAC: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU

Big 12: Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU

SEC: Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Miss. State, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

B1G: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa

ACC: Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Clemson, Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, NCSU, UVa, Virginia Tech

Eastern: Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers, Penn State, Maryland, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

Well done, in that I wasn't sure it was possible to create six genuinely Power conferences and within reasonable geographic borders, but this does do it.

Has no chance of becoming reality of course, but theoretically, it's out there.

(02-11-2021 09:10 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 08:35 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 07:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 04:36 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 03:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  There's another scenario in which those schools are not "left behind" to be excluded from the power conferences. That is, this new conference (the Pacific Southwest Conference) becomes one of the P6:

Pacific: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Cal, Southern Cal and UCLA
Southwest: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas

The PAC rebuilds by adding Boise State, BYU and San Diego State and retains its "P" status.

The Big XII rebuilds by adding Houston, Navy, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF and also retains its "P" status.

But "P" status in a world with an 8 team playoff only confers an autobid for its champion, but not necessarily a contract with an NY6 bowl, as the bowls are no longer a part of the CFP.

The AAC rebuilds by adding Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB and Rice and remains a G5 conference.

The CFP now includes the 6 "P" champions, any other team ranked in the Top Ten, plus the highest ranked at-large teams.

The ten year average Sagarin ratings of the new P6 become:

SEC 81
PSW 80
B1G 76
ACC 75
PAC 74
XII 73

and the G5:

AAC 62
MWC 62
MAC 59
SBC 58
USA 57

No more tweener conferences.

So your PAC would have only 9 members and the Big 12 would have 10?

Yes. Because that's all you can come up with if there are to be 6 P-conferences. There is not a single school with a 10 year strength rating of 70 left in the G5. Those two conferences would have added all seven schools from the G5 that are rated higher than that threshold.

Keep in mind two things. These only are P conferences in a world with an 8 team CFP. And, I doubt any of this is likely to ever happen because I don't believe the premise of the OP that there would be a PAC/XII conference in the foreseeable future.

Since you have all of the Sagarin rankings, how about looking up these 6 conferences:

PAC: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU

Big 12: Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU

SEC: Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Miss. State, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

B1G: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa

ACC: Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Clemson, Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, NCSU, UVa, Virginia Tech

Eastern: Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers, Penn State, Maryland, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

# of teams in( )

SEC (12) 81
PAC (12) 78
XII (12) 77
B1G (10) 77
ACC (11) 76
EAS (10) 73

Total of 67 teams

Though you didn't ask, the 10 remaining teams in the AAC (after ceding Cincy to the Eastern) would average 67, while the unchanged MWC is at 64.

Note that the ten year period cited does not include the 2020 season which because of COVID isn't consistent with respect to # of games played. 2019 is the tenth season.

I like it...geographic and balanced. Just need to get a football czar to convince...
1) ND to join a conference and Penn State to leave the B10 (with those two tent poles, the rest of Eastern Conference could come together)
2) Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and South Carolina to go back to their roots
3) Stanford, Cal & UCLA to not black-ball BYU

(02-12-2021 02:12 AM)46566 Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 12:55 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(02-11-2021 08:37 PM)46566 Wrote:  My honest opinion is both the PAC 12 and Big 12 go to 14. Have the PAC 12 get San Diego State and Hawaii. Big 12 get Cincinnati, Temple, App state and one of Houston, Tulane,Tulsa.

PAC 12 North
Oregon State
Oregon
Washington State
Washington
California
Stanford
Hawaii

Pac 12 South
USC
UCLA
San Diego State
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Utah

Big 12 North
Temple
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
App State

Big 12 South
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Houston/Tulane/Tulsa

I know the Big 12 North is screwy but I tried to make the bulk of the north in West Virginia Ohio and pennsylvania.

App State and Tulsa instead of UCF, Memphis, etc?

Either UCF or preferably Memphis could work. My thought is would UCF be worth it on its own as a single Florida matchup. I would have felt more comfortable with 2 Florida teams to ease basketball travel. Though by adding 2 teams to the south either both USF/UCF or the UCF/Memphis combo would cause a Oklahoma or Texas team to move to the northern division. The main reason I had Tulane/Tulsa/Houston was to ease the south travel. As the Northern teams are spread out.i figured travel for basketball could save some money in some pairs of games. My bad also I thought for some reason app state was in west virginia. I guess Memphis would be a better fit if closer to the north Eastern 3 or Iowa State. Would Marshall be a acceptable drive? They could be paired with either West Virginia or Cincinnati for basketball trips. That would force West Virginia and temple to act like a travel pairing. Let's say Marshall instead of App state and Houston to the South.

The south seems to be Texas Oklahoma conference and every school outside of the Oklahoma schools are more south than Memphis. You can honestly just kick Memphis to the North, I mean it's actually kind of central to all the northern schools anyways when you look at its geographical location, Yeah it's further south but, it's not a terrible distance away from the northern schools. I don't think it would be crazy to have Memphis replacing App State and just saying Houston for the Big 12 Texas Division.

(02-12-2021 09:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 08:40 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  What most on here are missing is that any new round(s) of realignment will certainly be more driven by a push toward increased racial equity, player compensation, NLI rights, and a general movement toward increasing the spread of media wealth more evenly among conferences and teams. No teams will be excluded. In fact more teams will be brought into the tent. And dollars will be spread more equally. Private schools will be pushed in ways that Publics are not.

Why do you think this? You believe the SEC is going to spread its wealth more equally with other conferences?

It is clear to me that "Equity" is the new 'overarching objective' in the 52/48 America.

This unprecedented push has already induced substantial wealth redistribution... and these initiatives will, I believe, continue somewhat unabated until perhaps checked a few years from now after considerable redistribution will have already taken place.

The NLI initiative is fundamentally one which has the same purpose as the broader Equity umbrella.

It is my opinion that these broad Equity initiatives will act as a common denominator by which to leaven all other movements.

So the SEC and other conferences won't go unscathed.

And in my view Realignment moves catalyzed by University, Conference and Team money-seekers will get somewhat stabilized and brought up short by Equity-seekers.

(02-13-2021 09:47 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 09:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 08:40 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  What most on here are missing is that any new round(s) of realignment will certainly be more driven by a push toward increased racial equity, player compensation, NLI rights, and a general movement toward increasing the spread of media wealth more evenly among conferences and teams. No teams will be excluded. In fact more teams will be brought into the tent. And dollars will be spread more equally. Private schools will be pushed in ways that Publics are not.

Why do you think this? You believe the SEC is going to spread its wealth more equally with other conferences?

It is clear to me that "Equity" is the new 'overarching objective' in the 52/48 America.

This unprecedented push has already induced substantial wealth redistribution... and these initiatives will, I believe, continue somewhat unabated until perhaps checked a few years from now after considerable redistribution will have already taken place.

The NLI initiative is fundamentally one which has the same purpose as the broader Equity umbrella.

It is my opinion that these broad Equity initiatives will act as a common denominator by which to leaven all other movements.

So the SEC and other conferences won't go unscathed.

And in my view Realignment moves catalyzed by University, Conference and Team money-seekers will get somewhat stabilized and brought up short by Equity-seekers.

There has no doubt been substantial wealth distribution, but it has always been to elevate the already wealthy even further above everyone else. I don't see anything on the horizon that is going to change that. And sports mirrors society in this respect. The rich will get richer.

NIL won't bring any equity to the college ranks. Just the opposite. The elite athletes will get the big bucks and the grunts will get left out.

As for conferences, they will continue to try to navigate the waters to make sure they are on the winning side that gets the lion's share of the wealth.

(02-13-2021 10:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-13-2021 09:47 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 09:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-12-2021 08:40 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  What most on here are missing is that any new round(s) of realignment will certainly be more driven by a push toward increased racial equity, player compensation, NLI rights, and a general movement toward increasing the spread of media wealth more evenly among conferences and teams. No teams will be excluded. In fact more teams will be brought into the tent. And dollars will be spread more equally. Private schools will be pushed in ways that Publics are not.

Why do you think this? You believe the SEC is going to spread its wealth more equally with other conferences?

It is clear to me that "Equity" is the new 'overarching objective' in the 52/48 America.

This unprecedented push has already induced substantial wealth redistribution... and these initiatives will, I believe, continue somewhat unabated until perhaps checked a few years from now after considerable redistribution will have already taken place.

The NLI initiative is fundamentally one which has the same purpose as the broader Equity umbrella.

It is my opinion that these broad Equity initiatives will act as a common denominator by which to leaven all other movements.

So the SEC and other conferences won't go unscathed.

And in my view Realignment moves catalyzed by University, Conference and Team money-seekers will get somewhat stabilized and brought up short by Equity-seekers.

There has no doubt been substantial wealth distribution, but it has always been to elevate the already wealthy even further above everyone else. I don't see anything on the horizon that is going to change that. And sports mirrors society in this respect. The rich will get richer.

NIL won't bring any equity to the college ranks. Just the opposite. The elite athletes will get the big bucks and the grunts will get left out.

As for conferences, they will continue to try to navigate the waters to make sure they are on the winning side that gets the lion's share of the wealth.

I just don't believe in this environment that the rich will just get richer. I think the move toward a much more socialistic outcome will prevail for several years. To be felt by players, coaches, universities, the NCAA, conferences (haves and have-nots), fans.

While the Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffetts of College Sports (SEC and B10) may remain more wealthy than others, the differences will diminish, as Equity measures take hold.

All things being equal (which they aren't), I believe that Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Texas would all prefer the status quo. Those are your big pieces that might be in play (and Notre Dame really only has one direction to go - the ACC).

OU/UT have the easiest path to the college football playoff by staying in the current Big XII. Move to the B1G, SEC, ACC, or PAC increases the difficulty of them making the playoff. Plus, for them, the Big XII is a very nice conference. Very local. Traditional rivals.

Notre Dame loves their independent status. If we move to an 8-team playoff, they'll never even need to consider joining a conference as they will likely make the playoffs most years where they finish undefeated or 1-loss.

The Big Ten's television contract in a couple years will go along way to determine if OU decides it's time to move on. If the Sooners can be in the ballpark of the B1G/SEC money-wise, I don't see them moving. They likely won't make SEC/B1G money, but will the revenue they do make be enough? The bigger the difference in revenue between OU and the B1G/SEC schools, the more likely the Sooners will want a change. They have many options.

The PAC is stuck and they are in a really bad spot tv-wise. They would like to add Big XII schools, but they can't. There aren't any available. The Big XII's television contract could be greater than the PAC-12's after things are renewed, so why would Big XII schools look west? I also don't see PAC schools moving east. It could happen, but again, why would OU/UT want more competition on the field if the money is fine in their current situation. Maybe they cave to allowing more schools if the money is right.

The PAC is going to have to give a lot during their next round of television negotiations to just stay close to the B1G/SEC. THIS could lead to realignment. Does USC (or any other player in the PAC) just sit back and watch the B1G/SEC make 30-40 million more per year than they do? Maybe. Maybe not. Where do these PAC schools go? The Big XII? B1G? SEC? ACC? Indy? Do any other conferences want them?

With the ACC locked up into the mid 2030's, the B1G/SEC have very limited options. UT/OU (Kansas?) and PAC schools. The most likely realignment, to me, would be in the Group-of-5 if the playoffs expand to 8. We may see consolidation there to try for a "Best-of-the-Rest" conference in an attempt to guarantee any type of automatic G5 playoff spot. I don't believe that's the right way for the G5 to look at it, but I'm guessing that path will be taken.

The other variable here that might lead to conference realignment is if one P5 conference was perceived as falling down to the G5 level. Even with their on field struggles lately, the PAC is still plenty safe from demotion, but not necessarily if some schools start to leave.

Texas has demonstrated that they can generate revenue. Oklahoma has been able to in the past, but changes in ownership of the FOX regional networks may threaten that revenue stream.
Keep an eye on Oklahoma and Kansas, they are the two most likely to catch the first train out of the station if they have a firm offer.
If Oklahoma and Kansas head to the B1G I expect the 800 pound gorilla will end up in one of the coast conferences.

Let the talk of UCF (with Gus Malzahn) to the Big 12 begin again.

This is going to sound crazy, but I believe the source of the next seismic realignment will catch a lot of folks by complete surprise. I believe that the next seismic realignment will be all about men's basketball and Olympic sports. Also, what is the one college sports posteason property not owned by ESPN?? March Madness. I firmly believe ESPN will finally go after financial gold mine that's been held by CBS & Turner Sports for awhile. It makes no sense for ESPN to keep ignoring it, especially if they want a college sports monopoly.

(02-12-2021 08:40 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  What most on here are missing is that any new round(s) of realignment will certainly be more driven by a push toward increased racial equity, player compensation, NLI rights, and a general movement toward increasing the spread of media wealth more evenly among conferences and teams. No teams will be excluded. In fact more teams will be brought into the tent. And dollars will be spread more equally. Private schools will be pushed in ways that Publics are not.

One way to do that is to setup an expanded playoff worth more $$$ as the individual conference contracts take a hit.

The guarantees could be as generous as 5 million per team for the G5.

(02-16-2021 12:34 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  This is going to sound crazy, but I believe the source of the next seismic realignment will catch a lot of folks by complete surprise. I believe that the next seismic realignment will be all about men's basketball and Olympic sports. Also, what is the one college sports posteason property not owned by ESPN?? March Madness. I firmly believe ESPN will finally go after financial gold mine that's been held by CBS & Turner Sports for awhile. It makes no sense for ESPN to keep ignoring it, especially if they want a college sports monopoly.

A partial merger of the Big East and the ACC is the first thing on my mind when you mentioned this. It makes some sense if the goal is to put together a collection of basketball bluebloods to the benefit of Big Media.

Imagine this: Syracuse, Connecticut, Villanova, Louisville, Duke, Virginia, Maryland, UNC, NC State, Georgetown

That would be the core of a new conference centered around basketball.

To that you could choose to add from the following: St. John's, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Cincinnati, Xavier, Dayton, Marquette, Providence, Wake Forest, Temple, Butler, VCU, Pitt, Notre Dame

The likes of Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech would be free to join the SEC or another conference.

(02-16-2021 12:34 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  This is going to sound crazy, but I believe the source of the next seismic realignment will catch a lot of folks by complete surprise. I believe that the next seismic realignment will be all about men's basketball and Olympic sports. Also, what is the one college sports posteason property not owned by ESPN?? March Madness. I firmly believe ESPN will finally go after financial gold mine that's been held by CBS & Turner Sports for awhile. It makes no sense for ESPN to keep ignoring it, especially if they want a college sports monopoly.

You do realize that the only reason that CBS brought Turner into March Madness was because they were losing money on it's presentation, right?

(02-16-2021 01:48 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(02-16-2021 12:34 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  This is going to sound crazy, but I believe the source of the next seismic realignment will catch a lot of folks by complete surprise. I believe that the next seismic realignment will be all about men's basketball and Olympic sports. Also, what is the one college sports posteason property not owned by ESPN?? March Madness. I firmly believe ESPN will finally go after financial gold mine that's been held by CBS & Turner Sports for awhile. It makes no sense for ESPN to keep ignoring it, especially if they want a college sports monopoly.

A partial merger of the Big East and the ACC is the first thing on my mind when you mentioned this. It makes some sense if the goal is to put together a collection of basketball bluebloods to the benefit of Big Media.

Imagine this: Syracuse, Connecticut, Villanova, Louisville, Duke, Virginia, Maryland, UNC, NC State, Georgetown

That would be the core of a new conference centered around basketball.

To that you could choose to add from the following: St. John's, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Cincinnati, Xavier, Dayton, Marquette, Providence, Wake Forest, Temple, Butler, VCU, Pitt, Notre Dame.
The likes of Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech would be free to join the SEC or another conference.

That's disgusting!