(05-25-2021 10:43 AM)Attackcoog Wrote: (05-24-2021 01:28 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote: (05-24-2021 12:30 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote: Air Force only comes if BYU and BSU are in and SDSU is out... JMO
I'm not sure if I wouldn't rather invite Colorado State now. Some compelling arguments made in the last 24 hours about the ultimate ceiling of Air Force being too low. No pun intended...
Regardless, I am proceeding with the assumption that BYU will never come. I think with them, it will either be PAC/BigXII, or independence forever. Because of Utah.
If BYU makes it to the playoff before Utah and makes the playoff more consistently than Utah—is Utah still “superior”....even if BYU's access is a result of AAC membership? Our only shot at getting BYU rests on BYU deciding Utah is not ”superior” if BYU has a better annual shot at the playoff than Utah in a 5-1-2 playoff format (or some similar format with an automatic G5 playoff slot).
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True.
Although Utah has stayed a step ahead of BYU for most of the past decade, BYU has won as many games as Utah has over the past decade, has had a much longer track record of success, and finished well ahead of (3-2) Utah in 2020, ending the season at #11 in the Final Top 25.
BYU's "inferiority/non-superiority complex" vis a vis Utah is attributable to the fact that Utah is in a P5 conference, has dominated BYU in their "Holy War" rivalry, and has had a better bowl record.
Although BYU may hope that it can surge ahead of Utah by pursuing a "Notre Dame-light" type of strategy - - playing 4 or 5 P5 teams per season and winning most of them - - that strategy hasn't panned out for them over the past decade:
--They've only been able to win ~40% of their P5 games since 2010, and
--They have only finished in the Top 25 once since they became an FBS independent in 2011.
Perhaps BYU has been "barking up the wrong tree."
They were far more successful when they played in the MWC and WAC conferences:
--They finished 5 seasons in the final AP Top 20 and compiled a 4-2 bowl record during their 12 years in the MWC.
--They finished 12 seasons in the final AP Top 20 and won a national championship during their last 22 years in the WAC.
In summary:
BYU finished 17 (50%) of their 34 seasons in the WAC and MWC (1977-2010) in the final AP top 20, and in the process of doing so, they won a national championship.
BYU has only finished one (0.1) of their past 10 seasons as an independent in the AP top 25.
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They may keep trying to pursue the same strategy that they've been trying with little to show for it for another decade, but they might be better advised to return to the tried-and-true formula that worked for them over the three prior decades.
Joining the AAC would provide them with the strength of schedule that they would need in order to become a top 10 team, without having to schedule 4 P5 teams per year.
Those seem like sufficiently compelling reasons for BYU to join the AAC, even if it weren't the most likely conference to provide a pathway to an expanded CFP and even if it weren't the case that joining the AAC might give them the best chance that they're likely to get to become a member of a power conference within the next decade.
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When is the “pick a lane” date for AAC?
