I used the annual recruiting point totals from Rivals and 247sports from the past eight years (2014 – 2021) to analyze the differences between the two ranking agencies.

There are 1040 observations (65 teams x 8 years x 2 agencies). Rival’s average team recruiting total is 1,723 points. For Rivals, the range between the best and worst P5 recruiting points total is generally about 3.5 times. By comparison, 247sports’ average recruiting is 216 points, and generally has a 2x range between highest & lowest points total.

Statistically, recruiting performance thresholds can be determined as,
a) Elite (>2 std dev higher than avg) is Rivals at 2795 and 247sports at 298 points
b) Strong (1-2 std dev higher than avg) is 2259 / 257
c) Average (< 1 std dev from avg) is 1723 / 216
d) Weak (1-2 std dev lower than avg) is 1187 / 175
e) Bad (>2 std dev lower than avg) is 651 / 133

In any given year, about 2 or 3 programs achieve elite recruiting status. According to both agencies, Alabama has achieved elite recruiting in the same 7 out of the past 8 years.

Bad recruiting classification is much less common amongst P5 programs. Only Oregon State (with 131 points per 247sports for the 2021 cycle) went below this threshold.

For the eight-year period, the average points results in the following classification:

Elite recruiting - Alabama is consensus elite by Rivals & 247sports. Georgia (2822/297) is elite per Rivals, but just misses with 247sports.

Strong recruiting – Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Texas A&M, USC, Florida State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame are consensus picks. In addition, 247sports has Tennessee, Florida, Texas and Auburn as strong recruiters…while Rivals has their recruiting as closer to average. Not surprisingly, Jimbo Fisher made a big difference when he moved from FSU to TAMU…as the recruiting ranking of those two schools are going in opposite directions.

Average – Mich, Oregon, PSU, Miami, Ole Miss, UCLA, SCar, Stan, UNC, Neb, Wash, MS St, MI St, Ark, KY, ASU, Wisc, TCU, VT, MD, NCSt, OK St, MO, WVU, Lou, Utah, Pitt, Cal, Bay, Iowa, GT, Minn, UVA, AZ, Van, Ind, TTU, Duke, NW, CO, ISU, WSU, Rutg, Cuse and Purdue have consensus average recruiting during this time period.

Weak recruiting – Illinois and Wake Forest are weak recruiting programs by both Rivals & 247sports. In addition, 247sports has KS, Ore St, BC and KSU with scores that make the weak threshold…but Rivals’ scores are closer to average recruiting.


I also added the 4-year recruiting talent of the teams that have made the CFP. This provides the floor threshold of cumulative recruiting talent it has taken to make the playoffs…greater than 2193 points in Rivals (ND's 2020 team) and 252 points in 247sports (Oklahoma's 2017 team). Based on prior experience, the teams that should have enough recruiting talent to make the CFP next year include: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida, Notre Dame, Michigan and Penn State. In addition, Auburn and Miami are straddling the recruiting talent line for teams that could compete in the 2021 playoffs.

Modifications to the initial analysis

I added recruiting ratings from 2013…the full data set is now 9 years (2013-2021), 585 sets of observations (65 schools * 9 years; each set has recruiting point totals from Rivals and 247).

Comparison of Rivals versus 247 recruiting point totals: I normalized the data (means and standard deviations) to determine the similarities and differences of Rivals and 247’s scoring systems.

Baseline variance between normalized scores -

• 65% (374 out of 585) of the data sets have <4.0% variation. In other words, the normalized points of Rivals and 247 are similar. Superficially the two agencies use different scoring systems, but their evaluation of talent is generally consistent. A simple example: the average P5 rating has been 1,722 points in Rivals and 215 points in 247; in 2016 recruiting, South Carolina received 1,724 points in Rivals and 217 points in 247 (both scores are slightly above the respective agency’s average score); when normalized, the USC Rivals score has a 0.8% variance from the USC 247 points…the two agencies’ points totals are similar on about two-thirds of all P5 schools’ recruiting classes.

• 32% (191 out of 585) of the data sets have 4.0% to 9.9% variation. This is material variation (not surprising given that recruiting classes include evaluation of 15 to 25 distinct athletes and the two agencies should have unique evaluation methodologies). An example: the average P5 rating has been 1,722 points in Rivals and 215 points in 247; in 2013 recruiting, West Virginia received 1,722 points in Rivals and 201 points in 247; when normalized, the WVU Rivals score has a -7.0% variance from the WVU 247 points…these are the observations where the ratings are not similar and could indicate biases amongst the two agencies. Of these 191 cases, Rivals is higher on 97 observations and 247 is higher on 94 observations. Schools from the BIG (46 cases) and ACC (45 cases) had the most cases; PAC (38 cases) and B12 (37 cases) had fewer cases, but it is consistent with lower membership in their conferences; and the SEC (21 cases) had the least cases with significant variations. 73% (139 out of 191) of these cases had recruiting scores that were lower than average…variation between the two agencies happens much more frequently on programs with lower rated recruits.

• 3% (20 out of 585 sets) have 10.0% or greater variation. Highest variation of any data set is 17%. An example: the average P5 rating has been 1,722 points in Rivals and 215 points in 247; in 2014 recruiting, Michigan received 1,641 points in Rivals (5% below the average Rivals score) and 234 points in 247 (8% above the average 247 score); when normalized, the Michigan scores have a -10.8% variance. Of these 20 cases, Rivals is higher on 13 observations and 247 is higher on 7 observations. None of the 20 data sets with >10% variation occur for SEC schools’ recruiting ranking…these highest variation cases occurred for the ACC (7 times), PAC (5 times), BIG (4 times) and B12 (4 times). In 18 of the 20 cases, the schools had scores that were well below the average ranking. The typical cases are Kansas in 2016, BC in 2013 and Illinois in 2019…these are cases where the schools are having bad recruiting, but the two agencies differ on just how bad to rank the schools. Even in the aforementioned Michigan-2014 case, the Wolverines don’t commonly have below average recruiting classes. Half (10 of 20) of the cases occurred in 2013…indicating that this may be an issue that has been addressed over time.

The 9-year average rating of all 65 teams have <4% variance in their Rivals versus 247-sports ratings. Teams with the largest variances:
1. Alabama, BC, Colorado, Kansas and Oregon State have gotten a 3% boost from Rivals
2. Texas, Baylor, Washington and Arizona State have a 3% boost from 247

Conference averages – Average SEC team recruiting ratings are 15% to 20% higher than other conferences, regardless of the agency. Average team recruiting is similar amongst the other four conferences. There is no noticeable conference preference by Rivals versus 247.

In summary, the differences in recruiting rankings are much more likely to occur when programs have weak recruiting years. Differences in scoring between Rivals and 247 are not impacted by the P5 conference.

These rankings are going to be a real fun study when looking back at the 2021 and 2022 classes with the lack of football across the country.. and the risers and fallers for '22 once these recruits play their SR seasons this fall.