RE: All things realignment
I think the Pac-12 is in a good position still.
A. No matter what, they have that 10:30PM EST timeslot to negotiate from and since it's normally teams like Wazzu that play at that time, any add should suffice.
B. You still have the Pac TV network which is critical. Losing USC/UCLA is enormous as it's 50% of the media presence, but the PAC can go EAST, which will bring in TV markets, eyeballs, and significant fanbases with media attention.
C. I do not believe Arizona State and Colorado are interested in the Big XII at all and Utah is on the fences and could stick. I do believe Arizona will bounce to the Big XII no matter what.
What would I do if I was the commish.
I would be talking to a lot of schools in the Sun Belt, American, MW, CUSA, and FCS conferences like the Missouri Valley, SWAC, and others to see what's our best options.
My BIGGEST focus since we fully own our network is fanbases, TV markets, media interest, hype, and diversity as that can be sold.
Here are my top targets:
1. SDSU - SD media market (27th), in SoCal so keeps that recruiting base, building new stadium, decent fan support, keeps the PAC network in the SoCal region which is CRITICAL.
2. Hawaii - Why Hawaii over others? Time zone, you can start games from 12AM to 1AM EST. That's live sports till 4AM EST. That's massive media-wise. Also, players like going to play in Hawaii. The downside is money, their fan support isn't great and while they are building a new stadium, it will take a while.
3. SMU - This needs to be mentioned in the East expansion section as it's not a good geo fit as it is. Gives you access to the 5th best TV market. While some will say SMU doesn't have the pull in Dallas, I would argue that SMU is just as popular in Dallas as UoH is in Houston without the same success. The downside is religious school even if they are trying to go away from it which I don't mind but I know some presidents do, and most importantly, geo issues if there is no East exp.
4. San Jose State - This was tough as this school isn't cutting it but they are in the 6th best media market and if Cal/Stanford go to the B1G, you gotta replace them with a team in the region like SDSU is doing for the LA teams. At least San Jose St is in the Bay Area unlike SDSU in LA. So many downsides to adding this team but the media is most important.
5. Fresno - They are one of the best adds period and I think this is the real #2 if the PAC just adds two schools. That said, if the PAC loses let's say 3-4 more schools from the 2 they already lost, they will have to think outside of the box. Fresno drops in value to 5th. That said, they still will get in. They have a lot of great things about Fresno County and just the market that it is in. The media market is 55th. Strong fanbase. They are ready for the jump to the Power 3 (P3). Elite 2 is the SEC and the B1G.
6. UNLV - Media Market, Media Market, Media Market. That's pretty much the advantage of adding UNLV. They used to be a Basketball power but not anymore. 40th media market. Has access to a lot of hotels and events. They add conference value.
7. Nevada - They have better sports than UNLV but nothing to write home about. Market isn't in the top 100. That said, Reno does fit the footprint but likely on the outside looking in.
8. Boise - Almost all of their value is in Football. They don't really offer much else and are basically a less successful G5 version of NDSU in the FCS. They do have some nationwide fans and they do get better ratings than others in the MWC. While they are on the outside looking in, I do think they will get serious consideration.
9. UC Davis - 19th best media market. Good athlete budget. They are built to be a FBS school right now. I think this is a legit possibility.
EASTERN EXPANSION.
This is probably where the Pac needs to expand the most. If you own your own network, limiting it to one side of the country where the eyeballs are weaker is a TERRIBLE idea. The PAC has to expand east and in particular due to Football interest, to the SOUTH. They must fill those 12PM EST and 1PM EST timeslots. While SMU is #1, here are the rest.
2. Memphis - 51st media market. Very good sports. A plethora of corp investors. Diverse student body. Ready for the P3 jump.
After 2, this gets difficult.
3. Rice - 8th media market. Wealthy. Academic focused. AAU. terrible sports. No serious interest in Houston but they have media value and pair nicely with SMU and our #4 school.
4. Tulane - 50th media market. Wealthy. Academic focused. AAU. terrible sports. Average interest in New Orleans. Pairs well with Rice and SMU.
5. USF - This one is tough because they have the media market 13th. Sports are average at best. R1. More invested in sports for 2022 than they were in the last 10 years.
Hopefuls: These are the diverse schools and media market teams.
6. GA State - 7th media market. R1. Diverse student body. Terrible sports. No interest in Atlanta. This is all about potential.
7t. Jackson State and North Carolina A&T - These would be better fits in the CUSA but Jackson State offers a media value that might not be qualifiable as they meet the Tiger Woods/Obama potential larger-than-life platform if they have success for football. They are basically like a much higher upside and much lower floor Boise. They could be the best addition to all G5 and FCS teams if things work in their favor. NC A&T should be a decent add but the upside just isn't that high to quantify the risk. Jackson is the 97th media market, and Greensboro is 47th. Both HBCUs are massive as HBCUs have a greater fanbase because that's all 46.8 million Black Americans. Because of this, it places these two schools but JSU in particular in the Tiger Woods/Obama category. Both schools will be among the highest viewed in the East and they won't be close. They just have a much bigger crowd to draw from as HBCUs and that really has MEDIA VALUE.
9t. This was extremely hard. I went with UTSA and UAB. Birmingham is the 48th best media market and Tulsa is in the 31st best media market. Both are lacking a lot of P3 needs but they do have a decent market and they are schools that could get okay ratings in these timeslots. I would say they are on the outside, looking in. The facilities are a massive issue for UTSA but there is legit upside.
11. Missouri State is intriguing. 74th media market. They have a lot of potential to a potentially decent add. Just not sure I would take them over UAB or Tulsa.
I do believe the PAC should expand to 20 teams if maintaining full ownership of the PAC network is key. They need to expand to the East and try to really grab as much media as possible. The ability to get their network in all homes like the SEC and Big Ten network is, will be CRITICAL.
I would put teams in 4 pods. Be creative. Have a playoff for the PAC. The winner of each pod plays each other. NW1 v. W1 in LA at SoFi. SE1 v. SW1 in Atlanta at the Benz. Next week, the Championship game in Las Vegas. West winner v. East winner.
PAC sells 10:30PM CST to ESPN. PAC works with media stakeholders to get their network in the South.
SE Pod: GA State, NC A&T, UAB, USF, Memphis
SW Pod: Jackson State, Tulane, UTSA, SMU, Rice
W Pod: Arizona State, Colorado, Utah**(Nevada), UNLV, Hawaii
NW Pod: Oregon State, Washington State, SJ State, Fresno, (Nevada or Boise)
Gives you two diverse schools, two HBCUs which are elite for marketing your conference brand, four P5s, Hawaii time zone, SDSU, and Fresno are ready for the jump, and the East coast expansion for media reasons. This puts you in 5 time zones which is the most. Right now, the max is 3 time zones which are the B10.
This is only if you lose 5-6 teams or more. If you lose just SC and UCLA, just add Fresno and SDSU and call it a day.
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All things realignment
