(01-31-2021 07:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (01-31-2021 03:39 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote: (01-31-2021 03:37 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote: P5 champ auto bid and three at larges, but with the stipulation that we go back to the BCS rankings. If a G5 team isn't good enough to sneak into that then we probably don't need to see them in a likely 1st round game against Bama. It would likely be a blood letting.
BCS formula approach won't work anymore because the poll voters have been conditioned into all the strength of schedule, quality loss bull****. Look at how UCF was ranked in the polls in 2017/2018, when we would have been Top 5 in the AP in years past.
Here's the problem with that line of attack. Regarding computers, in 2017, UCF was ranked #9 in the Massey Composite before their bowl game. In 2018, UCF was ranked #8 at the same point.
In contrast, in 2009, "G5" TCU was ranked #4 in the MC before their bowl while Boise was #7. In 2010, TCU, still in the non-AQ camp, was #3 while Boise was #5 going in to the bowls.
So according to the computers alone, non-AQ teams like TCU and Boise were regarded as significantly better than UCF was in 2017 and 2018, or Cincy in 2019. The best G5 teams of today just are not as good as the best G5 teams of a decade ago, and that explains the lower human poll rankings, not some mystical influence of the CFP.
Different time my man. How you cant see that is simply ignoring the basic facts of how the worst biases of the Committee have bled into the polls and computer models.
In 2009 TCU's best P5 win that season was a 14-10 squeaker over a 5 loss Clemson team. TCU only played two ranked teams in 2009---both G5's. TCU went 1-1 in those top 25 games (lost to Boise, beat Utah)---yet still finished at #6. Anyone think a one loss AAC team would finish at #6 today? Give me a freaking break.
Boise went undefeated in 2009 beating #16 Oregon (P5) in the first game of the season. Boise would not play another P5 or ranked team all year and would rise to #6 prior to the bowls. They defeated TCU (G5 at the time) to finish #4 at 14-0.
Now---contrast that to the CFP era. In 2017 UCF went undefeated, had 2 top 25 wins (both G5), and had a P5 win over Maryland. They entered bowl season ranked
10th. They defeated #7 Auburn (a P5) and finished the year at #7.
So--just to review, TCU lost a game, played a weaker schedule---and still finished ahead of UCF. Boise went undefeated and played a ranked G5 in their bowl (squeaking by the the aforementioned TCU) and was given the #4 rank at the end of the year. Meanwhile an
undefeated UCF with 3 top 25 wins, 2 P5 wins--the best of which is a solid win over #7 Auburn in their bowl game---and yet UCF finished lower than a one-loss TCU in 2009?
Dont tell me its not different today because, objectively---its quite different. Today, that 2009 TCU team would finish more around where the 2018 UCF finished (#12--at best). That Boise team would be lucky to finish where UCF did in 2017 (#7).