(02-01-2021 09:03 AM)Flippmb Wrote: At this point, I like ETSU's chances in any SoCon game in which they play well.
The SoCon is full of strong offensive teams that can beat you if you overlook them, or if you build a lead and relax a bit.
That said, I agree. At this point the Bucs should probably be favored in any SoCon contest in which they bring their 'A' game.
Kenpom's got the stats, true, and I love their work. But I think that Kenpom is underrating the Bucs a bit this year. Probably because the early season games do not deserve to carry as much weight as the more recent ones.
The Bucs were a brand new team this year, trying to learn to play with each other in the middle of the Covid disruption. In the early games they were scrappy, but kind of a mess offensively. We have seen a very different team offensively in the last 4 to 6 games.
I've posted before comparing the last 4 games with the first 4 games of the season, both in terms of the team as a whole, and in terms of key players like Damari and Serrel Smith. I'll add David Sloan below.
Most teams improve over the course of the season. But not nearly as radically as ETSU has.
We'll get a test of this idea tonight and Wednesday. Both home teams, Wofford (3 points) and Mercer (1 point), are favored by Kenpom over the Bucs. Come ready to play 40 minutes, and we should win them both.