Believe it or not we are 1 point favorites with the over/under at 143.5.

UNCW website article about Saturday's game makes no mention of Sims' injury.

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(01-29-2021 06:58 PM)Proff Wrote:  Believe it or not we are 1 point favorites with the over/under at 143.5.

UNCW website article about Saturday's game makes no mention of Sims' injury.

I just came here because your preview doesn't mention the injury. If you count Sims, four of the top eleven in points per game will be there. I'm assuming the line was made expecting Sims to play because I don't see how you could be favored without him.

https://gohofstra.com/news/2021/1/28/men...-uncw.aspx is Hofstra's preview.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/h...ame16b.pdf is Hofstra's Game Notes.

static.caasports.com/custompages/stats/MBB/202021/HOFSTRA.HTM#team.ind has Hofstra's statistics. An assistant coach said all eleven scholarship players will be available, but they have said that before without it happening. Hofstra has played 15 games, and seven players have played 14 or 15. Junior guard Omar Silverio played the first six games and averaged 4.7 points, albeit with poor shooting, and he hasn't played since. Senior forward Stafford Trueheart missed the first eleven games and played the last four while averaging 3.5 points. Freshman forward David Green played the first eleven games and missed the last four. He started eight games, but when he was starting he was replaced by freshman forward Kvonn Cramer who was playing more than Green. Green averages 2.8 points. Freshman guard Zion Bethea hasn't played. Silverio, Green, and Bethea didn't play last week.

Going to Hofstra's starters (including Cramer who has six starters and is a starter now), they all have at least 117 points, and the other players combined for 132. Senior guard Jalen Ray leads with 18.0 points and 2.0 steals and is second with 3.7 assists. Senior guard Tareq Coburn averages 15.5 points, is tied for second with 1.2 steals, and is first with 0.7 blocks. 69.5 percent of his attempts have been threes, and he leads Hofstra in threes made with 40 and percentage at .381. Players other than Ray and Coburn combine to shoot threes 31/136 = .228. Junior forward Isaac Kante averages 12.5 points and is second to Delaware's Dylan Painter with 10.5 rebounds. He never attempts threes, and his field goal percentage is down from .655 last season to .533 now. The good things is he commits fewer fouls per game in more minutes per game than last season. Freshman forward Kvonn Cramer averages 8.1 points and leads CAA freshmen with 6.5 rebounds. He shoots twos 45/64 = .703 and threes 6/25 = .240. He made 1 of his first 18 threes before make 4 of 5 on Saturday and 1 of 2 on Sunday. He raised his free throw percentage from .200 to .433. Sophomore point guard Caleb Burgess averages 7.8 points and is third in the CAA with 5.2 assists, which is exactly double his turnovers. He has 78 assists, Ray has 56, and the rest of the team his 55. Only Burgess and Ray average at least 1 assist, and it's hard to have only two players do that. In 2015-2016, Juan'ya Green averaged 7.1 assists, and five players averaged at least 1.4.

I mentioned starters and players who missed time. Hofstra also has junior forward Kevin Schutte, who subs for Kante. Schutte averages 1.7 points and 2.9 rebounds in 8.6 minutes. Freshman guard Vukasin Masic averages 2.2 points in 10.9 rebounds. Cramer, Green, Masic, and Bethea (who might debut tomorrow) are four freshmen Hofstra uses. Burgess is kind of like a freshman because he played only 145 minutes last season.

Hofstra shoots a little worse than their opponents and has been outrebounded by 2, which is 0.13 per game. Hofstra's opponents have a great assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.27. Hofstra has scored 2 more than their opponents, which is 0.13 per game, and their statistics don't look good for a 9-6 team. Hofstra has made 50 more free throws than their oppponents, which is very good, but not as many per game as when they made 218 more free throws than their opponents in 34 games last season.

Nice write up EvanJ! The high assist to TO ratio for opponents is probably due to the zone or match up that they play. It's a bend not break type of defense and I don't have anything against it at all. I ran a trapping 3/2 myself at times if I didn't have the horses down low and quick guards (my sons teams), but it's more of a 2/3 matchup zone from what I've seen which is fine. It will cause problems for UNCW for sure unless they get organized and attack it prudently.

I don't think that Sims is available and I'm pretty sure that the oddsmakers know that. The problem for UNCW is that the floater at the mid-high post was Sims and now has to be probaby Pridgen so that is different. The bottom line is that UNCW has to reverse the ball prudently after an initial weave action or not and hit the mid-high post or short corner AND the guys on the wing need to do their work early to be in shot ready position plus the ball has to go inside out on time, if 3-ball is the best read. Hawks still have plenty of outside firepower (in theory believe it or not) if that happens, but all of that has to happen and you can't settle so expect Joe P (assuming he's the mid high float guy?) to drive the ball some after pivot too. Sims is a killer because he can kill you with the 15 footer, drive or 3 ball (all 3 levels), but is unavailable as is Shykeim which is another killer. Another option is to screen the zone strong side, at times, to get Mike downhill too, but he has to make the right read if that occurs.

On defense, UNCW has to help better and needs to double down quick with a purpose on Kante. Hawks lack the numbers to speed pace and that favors the Pride...too many injuries. Hopefully it's a fun competitive game. I would love for the Hawks to mix in zones too a few possesions after some either token or 2/2/1 or some variation of a press after made FG (need token zone press the whole game unless it is easily broken for FG), but again they are very limited due to injuries so they can't sell out like they should in the style preferred by Siddle.

Bottom line, Hawks really can't play at their favored pace and has to learn to win another way. It's good playing time for several of the Hawks that haven't played that much that will now be forced into action. It should be a close game you would think.

No chance odds makers no about Simms. There is zero chance we’d be favored if they did


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Time for some players to step it up.

#1 Dodd - He needs to live up to the hype. 6'6" 245 lb. Sophomore. Siddle needs to play Dodd a lot, and let him work it out. Time to find out if he's going to be a beast or a bust. Hit the boards HARD, and become a rebounding machine. There is no reason he can't grab 10 boards per game. We have plenty of offense, so if he can hit the offensive boards, get a few junk baskets and get us a few extra posessions, it would make a world of differnce on this team. He's basically the same size as Zion, but just doesn't have the heart and motor to impose his will on the game.

#2 - Boggs. Jake can shoot, but he's shaky on the drive and loses the ball a lot and can't finish. He needs to spot at the three point line, then sprint to the boards when another player puts up a shot. He's shown to be pretty good when he has the ball deep in the paint. He also needs to look for his shot. He's by far the best three point shooter on the team at .425, but is fifth on the team in attempts with only 40. He should also average about 6 rebounds per game instead of 3.5.

#3 Gadsden - Ty has just not found his offense yet. He takes the third most shots on the team, but is only hitting 39% of his shots and 33% from three. His saving grace is that he's automatic from the FT line. But, to get there he is driving a lot, but isn't finishing. He's counting on getting fouled to score.

#4 Harvey - Fouls have been a factor in keeping Harvey on the bench. He only played 16 and 18 minutes against Delaware. With Sims out, he is now our second best three point shooter at 35%. He's good at getting to the bucket, but is only hitting 58.3% from the FT line which is one of the worst on the team. We'll need for him to drive more, but he's going to have to get better at the line.

#5- Jenkins. Although I put Dodd #1, Jenkins may end up being the most important change. As much as we complain about depth in the post, we have a bigger problem at guard with Carr, Phillips, Estime, Sims, and Phillips out. Somebody has to give our starters a rest, and Jenkins will probabaly be that guy. Tolefree just hasn't show the ability to be any help on offense at all, and Siddle needs guards who can score.

Okauru and Pridgen are doing their part. Pridgen is our leading rebonder at 8.8 per game and is hitting 51% from the field. He's all but stopped shooting the three where he only hits 28%. Okauru has twice as many steals as any other player and has been a horse on the court, averaging 37 minutes in CAA play. He also averages just over 5 rebounds per game.

This team is going to look dramatically different with Sims gone. He played the most minutes, took the most shots, had the most FT attempts, took the second most three point shots and was second in rebounds. Pridgen, Okauru and Gadsden already play a lot and shoot a lot. They can't do much more. The slack has to be picked up by Dodd, Harvey, Boggs and Jenkins. IMO, Dodd is the most important of these three. If he can step up and play the five, Boggs can stop defending players that outweigh him by 50 lbs. and focus on scoring.

Looking at our roster, Siddle likes to have four three point threats on the court. Pridgen, Dodd and Bowen shouldn't be shooting threes. So when Dodd is in, it forces Pridgen to the bench. That's why Siddle has Boggs at the five with Pridgen at the four. Siddle is either going to have to drastically change his "four out" offense and put Dodd and Pridgen on the floor together, or he's going to have to put Jenkins in a lot, and keep playing Boggs at the five.

Here's how I see this playing out.

Okauru, Gadsden, Harvey, Pridgen, Boggs

Jenkins comes in to allow guards to rest some. Dodd comes in to rest Pridgen and Boggs, with Dodd and Pridgen together some. If Bowen can play, he may take the spot of Dodd.

We may be forced to play zone to rest guys and keep us out of foul trouble. Now is the time to work out a good zone defense.

It's going to be a rough end to this season, and there are no other guards on the roster. If Phillips could come back, it would change this team completely, and get us back in some sort of balance of PT.

I can't see us favored to win any game going forward.

Now it is Hofstra by 1.5. Over/under is still 143.5.

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(01-29-2021 11:56 PM)billthebighawksfan Wrote:  Nice write up EvanJ! The high assist to TO ratio for opponents is probably due to the zone or match up that they play. It's a bend not break type of defense and I don't have anything against it at all. I ran a trapping 3/2 myself at times if I didn't have the horses down low and quick guards (my sons teams), but it's more of a 2/3 matchup zone from what I've seen which is fine. It will cause problems for UNCW for sure unless they get organized and attack it prudently.

I don't think that Sims is available and I'm pretty sure that the oddsmakers know that. The problem for UNCW is that the floater at the mid-high post was Sims and now has to be probaby Pridgen so that is different. The bottom line is that UNCW has to reverse the ball prudently after an initial weave action or not and hit the mid-high post or short corner AND the guys on the wing need to do their work early to be in shot ready position plus the ball has to go inside out on time, if 3-ball is the best read. Hawks still have plenty of outside firepower (in theory believe it or not) if that happens, but all of that has to happen and you can't settle so expect Joe P (assuming he's the mid high float guy?) to drive the ball some after pivot too. Sims is a killer because he can kill you with the 15 footer, drive or 3 ball (all 3 levels), but is unavailable as is Shykeim which is another killer. Another option is to screen the zone strong side, at times, to get Mike downhill too, but he has to make the right read if that occurs.

On defense, UNCW has to help better and needs to double down quick with a purpose on Kante. Hawks lack the numbers to speed pace and that favors the Pride...too many injuries. Hopefully it's a fun competitive game. I would love for the Hawks to mix in zones too a few possesions after some either token or 2/2/1 or some variation of a press after made FG (need token zone press the whole game unless it is easily broken for FG), but again they are very limited due to injuries so they can't sell out like they should in the style preferred by Siddle.

Bottom line, Hawks really can't play at their favored pace and has to learn to win another way. It's good playing time for several of the Hawks that haven't played that much that will now be forced into action. It should be a close game you would think.

I looked at Hofstra's 20 seasons in the CAA including this one, and this is the third highest ratio Hofstra has allowed, the third highest percent of opponents' field goals that had assists, and the eighth highest points per game allowed. If Hofstra played zone defense most of the time under Mihalich, there has to be another factor. Assists look good, but points count the same whether they had an assist or not. It's like how if a quarterback throws a pass that has the receiver tackled at the 1, and somebody runs for a touchdown on the next play, the quarterback's statistics look so much worse than if he had thrown 1 more touchdown when passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns are the same amount of points.

You shoot free throws great at .762, which would be the seventh highest in CAA history. All of the top five were in the last three seasons. William & Mary has the record of .810 in 2017-2018, which is sixth in Division I history. The Division I record is .822 by Harvard in 1983-1984. Your opponents have shot free throws almost as well at .750. The CAA leads conferences with a .7257 free throw percentage, which is lower than when the CAA led with .7399 last season and .7344 in 2018-2019.

(01-30-2021 09:38 AM)Proff Wrote:  Now it is Hofstra by 1.5. Over/under is still 143.5.

That makes a score of 72.5-71. That would be 10 points higher for each team than Hofstra's 63-61 win at you last season. Hofstra is 1-7 against the spread in CAA games, with the only win being 71-58 hosting Towson last Saturday.

Phillips is warming up with the team pregame!

Tolefree appears to be available as well.

If Shy can go we have 10 players (9 scholarship). If not it’s 9 and 8.

Losing Sims sucks but at least we appear to have more bodies available than last week.

Getting Shy back would be a huge shot of confidence for this team.


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Shy is dressed!

Shy warming up a lot. Bowen too. Tolefree knocking down three's. Let's see what we've got!

Bowen in and not Dodd.

There’s been more cutting on offense than usual, which is nice to see. Bowen scored on one such cut underneath.

Also we’ve using a lot of zone press before dropping into our typical man to man. I can’t recall us using much, if any, zone press previously. But correct me if I’m wrong there.

We dropped into a 3-2 zone on the last Hofstra possession and got a stop.

We had to do something to counter their center, Kante (10 points), without losing sight of their shooters. Let’s see if we use more of that in the 2nd half.

I pretty much called all of this. Need to go zone. Ty needs more shots, jake needs to start hitting.

Only Bowen and Dodd have been used off the bench so far. Tolefree might be forced into action in the 2nd half, however, considering that Harvey and Gadsden have 2 fouls apiece.

No one on Hofstra has 2 fouls yet. Meanwhile, with Tareq Coburn apparently unavailable, Hofstra has extended their bench a bit. Freshman guard Zion Bethea, who hadn’t previously appeared in the Pride’s 8 CAA games to date, played a couple minutes at the tail end of the half.

Shy not taking part in pre 2nd half layups/shooting. I can’t imagine he plays today. Tolefree and Jenkins have to be ahead of him on the depth chart at the moment.

A Hofstra player who hadn’t played in any CAA games, Omar Silverio, has 14 points.

We rely on the three too much to shoot it this bad. Boggs didn't step up when we needed him to.