I think more FBS schools and conferences would be fun. I don't see it impacting the P5 very much and I don't think a breakaway is coming anytime soon because the current FBS setup is mutually beneficial for both parties.

I'm sure the current G5 conferences are upset but they will likely have to deal with it and hope for more playoff money via a better TV deal and/or expansion.

(02-01-2021 03:40 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  I think more FBS schools and conferences would be fun. I don't see it impacting the P5 very much and I don't think a breakaway is coming anytime soon because the current FBS setup is mutually beneficial for both parties.

I'm sure the current G5 conferences are upset but they will likely have to deal with it and hope for more playoff money via a better TV deal and/or expansion.

So why do you think the P5 will not help their G5 partners? If the SEC benefits from body-bag games with CUSA and the Sun Belt, don't you think the SEC would be inclined to vote to protect the CUSA and Sun Belt?

Voting for a rule change to delete the obsolete "WAC loophole" is a very small ask for the P5. Balance that against pretty much torching their relationships with the G5, and I think the big guys will protect their cozy relationships with their suppliers of body-bag games.

The interests of someone INSIDE the club will almost always trump possible benefits to someone OUTSIDE the club.

EDIT: It's not like LSU or Tennessee is going to save a huge amount of money by playing off Middle Tennessee vs Central Arkansas for body-bag games.
Arkansas and Arky State may not have the best relationship, but is there any case for the Razorbacks benefiting from a 3rd FBS program in-state?

(02-01-2021 03:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-01-2021 03:40 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  I think more FBS schools and conferences would be fun. I don't see it impacting the P5 very much and I don't think a breakaway is coming anytime soon because the current FBS setup is mutually beneficial for both parties.

I'm sure the current G5 conferences are upset but they will likely have to deal with it and hope for more playoff money via a better TV deal and/or expansion.

So why do you think the P5 will not help their G5 partners? If the SEC benefits from body-bag games with CUSA and the Sun Belt, don't you think the SEC would be inclined to vote to protect the CUSA and Sun Belt?

Voting for a rule change to delete the obsolete "WAC loophole" is a very small ask for the P5. Balance that against pretty much torching their relationships with the G5, and I think the big guys will protect their cozy relationships with their suppliers of body-bag games.

The interests of someone INSIDE the club will almost always trump possible benefits to someone OUTSIDE the club.

EDIT: It's not like LSU or Tennessee is going to save a huge amount of money by playing off Middle Tennessee vs Central Arkansas for body-bag games.
Arkansas and Arky State may not have the best relationship, but is there any case for the Razorbacks benefiting from a 3rd FBS program in-state?

I guess I just don't think it matters to them if there are 5 or 7 G5 conferences. For the Pac 12 especially I'd imagine a second G5 western conference would help a lot in terms of scheduling.

(02-01-2021 12:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(01-31-2021 04:07 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  There is only so much g5 cfp money to go around. If these conferences are allowed to move up, you are going to witness a supernova happen. The system is going to get absolutely blown up which is what the P5 wants. One major league... and a huge minor league.. and schools and conferences will be left to fend for themselves.

That is why I don’t think it’ll happen. They might move up, but ESPN isn’t going to televise Lamar vs tumbleweed state.

The scenario that you presented doesn't seem like an argument that this *won't* happen. Instead, it actually seems to support the idea that it *will* eventually happen (where the P5 finally get to the political/financial incentive to break off once and for all). To be clear, I'm not an Armageddon-type predictor regarding college sports realignment and I believe that there's a massive amount of inertia within the system that naturally prevents large scale change, but as a general matter, if the P5 like it, then they'll probably allow it.

Separately, is the mothership ESPN network going to televise Lamar vs. Tumbleweed State? Very likely not.

However, could there be enough demand from ESPN+, Peacock and other streaming services where they'll pay for content from lower level conferences? Heck, that's actually happening already.

Add in an 8-team playoff where there's a slot reserved for the top G5 champ and those games would have *some* value (even if they're not Ohio State vs. Michigan). I wouldn't underestimate the increasing demand from streaming services (who generally can't get the P5 on-board with streaming-only packages in more than a cursory way as of yet).

ESPN may show North Dakota State vs UCA on ESPN 2 if MVFC schools break away from their conference mates to be FBS conference for all sports. NDSU taken on a top team from the Southland would garner a strong viewership.

(02-01-2021 03:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-01-2021 03:40 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  I think more FBS schools and conferences would be fun. I don't see it impacting the P5 very much and I don't think a breakaway is coming anytime soon because the current FBS setup is mutually beneficial for both parties.

I'm sure the current G5 conferences are upset but they will likely have to deal with it and hope for more playoff money via a better TV deal and/or expansion.

So why do you think the P5 will not help their G5 partners? If the SEC benefits from body-bag games with CUSA and the Sun Belt, don't you think the SEC would be inclined to vote to protect the CUSA and Sun Belt?

Voting for a rule change to delete the obsolete "WAC loophole" is a very small ask for the P5. Balance that against pretty much torching their relationships with the G5, and I think the big guys will protect their cozy relationships with their suppliers of body-bag games.

The interests of someone INSIDE the club will almost always trump possible benefits to someone OUTSIDE the club.

EDIT: It's not like LSU or Tennessee is going to save a huge amount of money by playing off Middle Tennessee vs Central Arkansas for body-bag games.
Arkansas and Arky State may not have the best relationship, but is there any case for the Razorbacks benefiting from a 3rd FBS program in-state?

Arkansas State vs UCA every year with both at the FBS level would help since fans of both schools can drive to the games which helps sells more tickets at each school. They were a long time conference rivals in the all Arkansas conference that started in the late 1920s.

(02-01-2021 04:57 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-01-2021 12:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(01-31-2021 04:07 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  There is only so much g5 cfp money to go around. If these conferences are allowed to move up, you are going to witness a supernova happen. The system is going to get absolutely blown up which is what the P5 wants. One major league... and a huge minor league.. and schools and conferences will be left to fend for themselves.

That is why I don’t think it’ll happen. They might move up, but ESPN isn’t going to televise Lamar vs tumbleweed state.

The scenario that you presented doesn't seem like an argument that this *won't* happen. Instead, it actually seems to support the idea that it *will* eventually happen (where the P5 finally get to the political/financial incentive to break off once and for all). To be clear, I'm not an Armageddon-type predictor regarding college sports realignment and I believe that there's a massive amount of inertia within the system that naturally prevents large scale change, but as a general matter, if the P5 like it, then they'll probably allow it.

Separately, is the mothership ESPN network going to televise Lamar vs. Tumbleweed State? Very likely not.

However, could there be enough demand from ESPN+, Peacock and other streaming services where they'll pay for content from lower level conferences? Heck, that's actually happening already.

Add in an 8-team playoff where there's a slot reserved for the top G5 champ and those games would have *some* value (even if they're not Ohio State vs. Michigan). I wouldn't underestimate the increasing demand from streaming services (who generally can't get the P5 on-board with streaming-only packages in more than a cursory way as of yet).

ESPN may show North Dakota State vs UCA on ESPN 2 if MVFC schools break away from their conference mates to be FBS conference for all sports. NDSU taken on a top team from the Southland would garner a strong viewership.

They played this past year. What was the viewership like?

(01-31-2021 06:57 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  

(01-29-2021 07:06 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  UCF, Boise State, and Marshall are shaking in their boots at the prospect of Southern Utah and Central Arkansas stealing some of their thunder!

No, we are not. You are clueless about anything Marshall if you truly believe that..

I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic to my sarcasm.

(02-01-2021 06:55 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(01-31-2021 06:57 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  

(01-29-2021 07:06 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  UCF, Boise State, and Marshall are shaking in their boots at the prospect of Southern Utah and Central Arkansas stealing some of their thunder!

No, we are not. You are clueless about anything Marshall if you truly believe that..

I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic to my sarcasm.

I was lol.

(02-01-2021 04:33 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(02-01-2021 03:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-01-2021 03:40 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  I think more FBS schools and conferences would be fun. I don't see it impacting the P5 very much and I don't think a breakaway is coming anytime soon because the current FBS setup is mutually beneficial for both parties.

I'm sure the current G5 conferences are upset but they will likely have to deal with it and hope for more playoff money via a better TV deal and/or expansion.

So why do you think the P5 will not help their G5 partners? If the SEC benefits from body-bag games with CUSA and the Sun Belt, don't you think the SEC would be inclined to vote to protect the CUSA and Sun Belt?

Voting for a rule change to delete the obsolete "WAC loophole" is a very small ask for the P5. Balance that against pretty much torching their relationships with the G5, and I think the big guys will protect their cozy relationships with their suppliers of body-bag games.

The interests of someone INSIDE the club will almost always trump possible benefits to someone OUTSIDE the club.

EDIT: It's not like LSU or Tennessee is going to save a huge amount of money by playing off Middle Tennessee vs Central Arkansas for body-bag games.
Arkansas and Arky State may not have the best relationship, but is there any case for the Razorbacks benefiting from a 3rd FBS program in-state?

I guess I just don't think it matters to them if there are 5 or 7 G5 conferences. For the Pac 12 especially I'd imagine a second G5 western conference would help a lot in terms of scheduling.

Does it? The FCS WAC looks like 3 East Texas schools, Abilene and Tarleton, UT-RGV, Southern Utah and Dixie State. If all of those go FBS, you're still only adding 2 FBS schools in the Mountain and Pacific time zones (SUU, Dixie State).

Does the PAC really gain from having another half-dozen FBS schools in Texas?

PAC schools might only have to shell out $800K instead of a million for a FBS buy game.

(02-01-2021 10:49 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  PAC schools might only have to shell out $800K instead of a million for a FBS buy game.

And completely ignore playing FCS altogether with all the lower end FBS schools around.

(01-29-2021 05:27 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Some current G5 programs could lose recruits, support, and perception.
P5 schools are not the only competition.

I think "G5 fans" downgrade the ASUN and WAC moves because they *do* recognize a slight threat, in the areas you mention, but also possibly in terms of having to split G5 CFP money more ways, at least down the road when the next deal is signed.

It's just your typical status hierarchy - those on rung two are clawing up at the legs of those on rung one (who are doing their best to keep them down) while simultaneously fighting a rearguard action, kicking down at the hands of those on rung three trying to claw their way up at them to rung two.

(02-01-2021 10:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(02-01-2021 10:49 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  PAC schools might only have to shell out $800K instead of a million for a FBS buy game.

And completely ignore playing FCS altogether with all the lower end FBS schools around.

Why in the world would the PAC be happier in a situation where Southern Utah University gets to cash a $1M check for a lower-FBS body-bag game instead of a $500,000 check as an FCS body-bag game?

Even if increased competition drives down the price of lower-FBS body-bag games, it has to drop by enough to cover 2x the cost of adding an FBS game instead of an FCS game.

That doesn't make any kind of sense.

Buy games plateaued and started dropping in price before the pandemic began. I don’t see the trend reversing anytime soon. Teams that budget with body bag games as part of their yearly revenue stream aren’t going to stop scheduling them. If push comes to shove, they may add another one if the budget necessitates it.

(02-02-2021 12:42 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Buy games plateaued and started dropping in price before the pandemic began. I don’t see the trend reversing anytime soon. Teams that budget with body bag games as part of their yearly revenue stream aren’t going to stop scheduling them. If push comes to shove, they may add another one if the budget necessitates it.

Yes, some of these schools clearly rely on the body bag games. When faculty or whoever starts complaining about dropping FBS football down to FCS or lower, the body bag revenue is usually cited by defenders as something that will be lost if that is done. So if anything, these schools have every incentive to seek out more of them.

(02-02-2021 11:36 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-01-2021 10:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(02-01-2021 10:49 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  PAC schools might only have to shell out $800K instead of a million for a FBS buy game.

And completely ignore playing FCS altogether with all the lower end FBS schools around.

Why in the world would the PAC be happier in a situation where Southern Utah University gets to cash a $1M check for a lower-FBS body-bag game instead of a $500,000 check as an FCS body-bag game?

Even if increased competition drives down the price of lower-FBS body-bag games, it has to drop by enough to cover 2x the cost of adding an FBS game instead of an FCS game.

That doesn't make any kind of sense.

If the P5 go to no playing FCS schools? That would cut off money for bodybag games for FCS. Going to FBS would guerentee money games. These schools seem not to worry about playing in Bowl games, but more school with a .500 or better record would go to a bowl game over a 5-7 schools.