Justanodufan
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RE: Texas and Oklahoma to SEC? Dominos could have odu moving
(07-26-2021 05:35 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote: (07-26-2021 05:15 PM)Cyniclone Wrote: (07-26-2021 04:34 PM)CalODUFan Wrote: (07-26-2021 02:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote: (07-26-2021 10:56 AM)CalODUFan Wrote: Big 12 will break up. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will go to Pac-12. Maybe also TCU and Baylor to make 16. Kansas and West Virginia will go to Big 10. AAC will use this opportunity to try to become a Power conference. They will try to get Kansas State, Iowa State, Boise State, etc. They will not be looking downward to UAB, ODU, etc. MWC, CUSA, MAC and SBC will be on their own and have to figure out whether they want to reconfigure.
Big 12, even in a compromised state, will have its branding, TV relationships and enough of a core to attract the best of the G5 to rebuild as a tweener conference. Iowa State and Kansas State will be in the same conference as Cincinnati and Houston but not the same one as Tulsa or San Jose State.
Pac-12 couldn't get support for Texas Tech and Oklahoma State when they were bringing their big brothers with; I can't imagine there'd be a lot of appetite to take the Marty Jannettys of their respective states on their own. The Cali schools would have a collective egg if they ever shared a conference address with Baylor.
The Big 10 would readmit Chicago as a nonscholarship program before it took West Virginia. They might take Kansas (though even that's probably a longshot) but unless Notre Dame or Missouri come along, I don't see them pulling the trigger.
Kansas may be the only attractive school to a better conference. Even if they find a liferaft, the other seven schools' best hopes are to stay together (yes, including West Virginia) and do what they can to rebuild with two to five of the best G schools they can find.
The Athletic just came out with a premium subscription article saying their best guess is that Kansas will go to the Big 10, and the Big 12 will try to survive with the remaining 7 and add Houston, SMU, Boise State, Cincy, and UCF. If that doesn't work, then they will scatter with some or all going to the Pac 12 and AAC. Plan A would be good for ODU I think, with openings in the AAC to fill.
That makes sense, though I'm guessing BYU is pretty high on their short list. Though I suspect that even if B12 loses multiple teams to the P12, the remnant schools will try to reorganized under their banner with best-ofs from the AAC and MWC. I guess they could straight up dissolve but I think I remember hearing they needed 8 of 10 schools to approve such a move.
If Houston and SMU leave, that leaves Tulane and especially Tulsa out on their own. Do they try to rebuild the west flank (Rice/USM/LT/UTSA) or abandon it and double down on the Eastern Time Zone, in which ODU's fortunes improve? It'll be a fascinating process if nothing else.
At the risk of repeating myself from this morning
I believe that the ACC will add UCF from the AAC, and possibly South Florida if Fla State jumps.
I think (as proven with Louisville) the ACC would forego academics and will also add WVU.
Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State may go the the B1G.
Having then lost 4 or 6 programs, the Big 12 adds Memphis, Houston, SMU and Cincy - whether Ok State and Kansas jump or not.
This leaves a core AAC greatly weakened, but, except for Fla, more friendly geographically. Temple, Uconn, Tulane, ECU (football), leaving Tulsa the odd man out.
The AAC at this point must add to survive.
There are a lot of scenarios, but UMass, ODU, Marshall, Rice, Ga State, App State, Navy, and UAB, are all possibilities.
If UCF goes to the ACC w/o USF (I believe this to be a very strong possibility, even if Fla State stays) then one of FAU/FIU come into play.
Of course we have not begun to discuss the MWC, which could eventually be a stop for Wichita state and Tulsa
UCF is far more likely to go to the ACC than anywhere else
From ESPN
Sources said the Big Ten likely would only consider schools that are members of the Association of American Universities, a group of top research institutions that matters a lot to Big Ten presidents. Every Big Ten school but Nebraska has AAU membership, and Nebraska was in the AAU when the Big Ten pursued the school in 2010. Texas is an AAU member but Oklahoma is not. Other than Texas, Iowa State and Kansas are the only other Big 12 schools part of the AAU. There's strong AAU membership in both the Pac-12 (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Washington)
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