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Seventyniner Offline
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Post: #161
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
(06-11-2021 10:40 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 02:29 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Using my rating system, here are how many C-USA teams were above 75/75-99:

2020: 2/2
2019: 4/3
2018: 4/4
2017: 3/6
2016: 4/2

I just pulled up a few random 'all rankings'for 2019... just because it was a 'real' year.... I don't care enough to look deeper than that... but as follows

Athlon had 7 CUSA teams (including us) ranked worse then #110.
ESPN had 5 in the bottom 10 (or receiving votes in the bottom 10, NOT including us)

I'm not making up what I've seen, so I know that I've seen NUMEROUS CUSA teams consistently ranked north of 100. I think I've commented numerous times when I've looked at the schedule and noticed that we could be the 80th or 90th best team in the country according to most polls, and be 'competing for the conference championship'.... much less having a winning record.

I snipped the quotes some, but I don't think the two of you are actually disagreeing here. With 14 teams in CUSA, the following can be extrapolated:

Quote:above 75/75-99/below 99:

2020: 2/2/10
2019: 4/3/7
2018: 4/4/6
2017: 3/6/5
2016: 4/2/8

That's over half the conference (7.2 teams) below 99 in an average year by WRC's ratings, which appears to conform to what you have observed.
(This post was last modified: 06-11-2021 11:27 AM by Seventyniner.)
06-11-2021 11:23 AM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #162
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
(06-11-2021 10:40 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 02:29 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  With 130 teams, being in the bottom quartile means being roughly 100 and below. 75th is not that far below being among the top half of FBS. So, I'm unclear as to above which bar you want Rice to clear.

Using my rating system, here are how many C-USA teams were above 75/75-99:

2020: 2/2
2019: 4/3
2018: 4/4
2017: 3/6
2016: 4/2


No offense to your rankings which I'm sure are well thought out... but you fairly consistently (in terms of rankings AND commentary about our performance) seem to have a higher regard for our performance than every other ranking system.

Not true. Just compare my rankings to the Massey Composite.
06-11-2021 11:44 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #163
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
thanks 79er

Perhaps the problem is with the language as to whether 'above' means better or worse??

I get the impression that WRC is MARGINALLY more impressed with our results than I am (not saying he's happy with them, don't want to put words in his mouth)... while I am all but completely UNIMPRESSED with them. If I am wrong WRC, I deeply apologize

My point is that because of our conference and what has typically been a weak OOC schedule (which isn't true this year)... we could be in a bowl and still be horrible (by ANY measure). I want us to be pretty good.
06-11-2021 11:45 AM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #164
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
(06-11-2021 11:23 AM)Seventyniner Wrote:  2020: 2/2/10
2019: 4/3/7
2018: 4/4/6
2017: 3/6/5
2016: 4/2/8

That's over half the conference (7.2 teams) below 99 in an average year by WRC's ratings, which appears to conform to what you have observed.
[/quote]

2020 should be 2/2/9
06-11-2021 11:49 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #165
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
(06-11-2021 11:44 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 10:40 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 02:29 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  With 130 teams, being in the bottom quartile means being roughly 100 and below. 75th is not that far below being among the top half of FBS. So, I'm unclear as to above which bar you want Rice to clear.

Using my rating system, here are how many C-USA teams were above 75/75-99:

2020: 2/2
2019: 4/3
2018: 4/4
2017: 3/6
2016: 4/2


No offense to your rankings which I'm sure are well thought out... but you fairly consistently (in terms of rankings AND commentary about our performance) seem to have a higher regard for our performance than every other ranking system.

Not true. Just compare my rankings to the Massey Composite.


Sigh... okay... I'll use Massey and you instead of Athlon, ESPN and the myriad of other sites.

Jesus Christ, now we're 'source arguing' over rankings.

If you want me to use your rankings, I'm going to raise the bar more.... because the sources I am more familiar with historically seem to rank us much lower than you (or Massey). I don't think we've had many teams that I would put in the top half of college football.... and that is my goal.
06-11-2021 11:51 AM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #166
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
The advantage of the Massey Composite is that it compiles and averages the top computer rating systems. When you have over 100 systems that are compiled, the outliers are swallowed up by the consensus.

Year (Mine/Massey)
2020 (108/98)
2019 (119/119)
2018 (126/128)
2017 (123/127)
2016 (116/124)
2015 (100/103)

There's really not much difference, except for 2016, but is there really much space between the 116th and 124th ranked teams?
06-11-2021 12:25 PM
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Seventyniner Offline
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Post: #167
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
(06-11-2021 11:45 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Perhaps the problem is with the language as to whether 'above' means better or worse??

Worse, but I can see why "above" was the wrong word to use. "100+" would have been more clear.

For what it's worth, I agree with you in that striving to have a winning record in a horrible conference isn't much of an aspiration.

(06-11-2021 11:49 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 11:23 AM)Seventyniner Wrote:  2020: 2/2/10
2019: 4/3/7
2018: 4/4/6
2017: 3/6/5
2016: 4/2/8

That's over half the conference (7.2 teams) below 99 in an average year by WRC's ratings, which appears to conform to what you have observed.

2020 should be 2/2/9

Good point. I had only looked at conference membership, not which teams actually played games. That puts the average right on 7 per year over that period, though that's still slightly over half the conference (average membership 13.8).
06-11-2021 12:26 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #168
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
I'm not going to go back and do the research...

What I know is that I have looked at these things in real time for many years... and have REPEATEDLY and FACTUALLY stated things like 'we could be ranked #95 and go to a bowl this year merely by holding serve.' I even remember a few times where we could be ranked in the 80's and at least COMPETE for the conference championship (based on divisions and cross-over). I hope/believe nobody is calling me a liar about that.

Whether or not the final ratings or what have you reflect that, I am not in control of.... but I think there is SOME truth to the idea that by the end of a season, you are what your relative performance earned... and not what your expected performance earned.

The PROBLEM is that we don't sell tickets or attract fans or student interest in no small part but because nobody expects us to do well early in the season... and by the time they MIGHT (assuming they EVER do) the major focus is no longer on 'potential' but on 'who is the best'.... so while we might finish at 75, nobody cares about anybody not in the top 25 as you approach the finals.

Interest in teams at/near the bottom of the schedule only happens early on...

Said differently... We were excited to beat top 20 ranked Marshall last year. If they had been 'exposed' prior and dropped to #75, fewer people would have cared. If you beat them in your last game, it makes a difference.

Momentum and expectations matter... and we routinely have neither


Again, no offense intended WRC... but I think many more people are familiar with ESPN's bottom 10 than with your or even Massey's rankings. People that MATTER?? Maybe not, unless your primary goal is to sell tickets or TV time.
(This post was last modified: 06-11-2021 03:07 PM by Hambone10.)
06-11-2021 03:03 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #169
2021 football schedule unveiled
(06-11-2021 12:25 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  The advantage of the Massey Composite is that it compiles and averages the top computer rating systems. When you have over 100 systems that are compiled, the outliers are swallowed up by the consensus.

Year (Mine/Massey)
2020 (108/98)
2019 (119/119)
2018 (126/128)
2017 (123/127)
2016 (116/124)
2015 (100/103)

There's really not much difference, except for 2016, but is there really much space between the 116th and 124th ranked teams?


Actually there is, at 116 you’re better than twice as many teams as at 124.
Kind of like whether there’s much difference between #8 and #16.

But to the larger point, I’ve never seen anything resembling a Rice “bias” over the years in your rankings and I think they are very well done. And FWIW I remember agreeing with them in 2016, when you had us ranked “twice as high” as the consensus.
06-11-2021 08:29 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #170
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
(06-11-2021 08:29 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 12:25 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  The advantage of the Massey Composite is that it compiles and averages the top computer rating systems. When you have over 100 systems that are compiled, the outliers are swallowed up by the consensus.

Year (Mine/Massey)
2020 (108/98)
2019 (119/119)
2018 (126/128)
2017 (123/127)
2016 (116/124)
2015 (100/103)

There's really not much difference, except for 2016, but is there really much space between the 116th and 124th ranked teams?


Actually there is, at 116 you’re better than twice as many teams as at 124.
Kind of like whether there’s much difference between #8 and #16.

But to the larger point, I’ve never seen anything resembling a Rice “bias” over the years in your rankings and I think they are very well done. And FWIW I remember agreeing with them in 2016, when you had us ranked “twice as high” as the consensus.

I'll say mine differently.... because I'm not talking about a bias towards Rice.

I take no issue with the idea that rankings like WRCs and others that 'smooth the outliers' are more accurate... That entirely misses my point... and that's my fault.

If 'the outliers' are the most often reported (to the general, if not the betting public who are much more interested in accuracy than perception) or are mostly related to TV time like ESPN, then it defeats my purpose in setting the bar for my expectations.

If we change the argument to say that I'd much rather have the outliers rank us in the top 30 like they seem to fairly regularly do with Marshall as opposed to in the bottom 30 like they seem to fairly regularly do with us.

The problem is that we schedule weak teams and then seem to play down to them, even losing to them with some frequency... something Marshall seems to do much less frequently.

What I've also seen us do with some regularity is to play good teams pretty well for a period... #7 A&M with Manziel in 2013 comes to mind.... I mean, we weren't remotely top 10 like they were, but we clearly had some talent.... and then we lose to UH who was also pretty good... and also lose to UNT, who was not bad, but not as good as the other two.... then we snap back and beat an 'over-rated?' Marshall... and are REWARDED with a Miss St game. Had we looked like we did against A&M against Miss St, it could have made a fundamental change in the trajectory of our program. As great as Prescott is/was/may have been, he didn't play defense.... and as an attendee, the game looked like men vs boys... and not simply a very good team against a very solid team.

I've tried to define that using rankings... which doesn't really reflect things for many of the reasons we're discussing...

I'll say it a final way...

If we finish 2021/2022 ranked in the top 50 in consensus sort of polls/ranking systems like yours and nobody knows about it... it doesn't drive up interest in tickets or donations or TV or media interest... then I will STILL have the goal of repeating that feat, but somehow managing to drive up interest in tickets etc etc etc.

We need to create the EXPECTATION that we have a competitive team... Competitive in the entirety of football which I have defined as 'around' the top half. When people think of RIce, they need to think of a team that can (under the right conditions) beat them... and not just the teams towards the bottom.

I apologize if my fervor comes across harshly. That is not my intent. I simply want us all to agree that EVEN AT OUR RECENT BEST (which I would describe as around 2013), it was not enough either in magnitude or in breadth to change the perceptions. And we need to change the perceptions. We can do that through a few REALLY great years... or we can do it through a whole lot of less exceptional, but consistent (and sometimes surprising) years... that avoids collapses.
(This post was last modified: 06-13-2021 04:07 PM by Hambone10.)
06-13-2021 04:03 PM
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Post: #171
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
Not worthy of a new thread as there’s nothing new in the article - some positive attention in the NY Post - they’re calling the over for Rice on the 5.5 win Vegas line. Incidentally, they’re also picking Texas as over 8.

https://nypost.com/2021/07/18/3-college-...s-in-2021/
07-18-2021 09:08 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #172
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
(06-13-2021 04:03 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I apologize if my fervor comes across harshly. That is not my intent. I simply want us all to agree that EVEN AT OUR RECENT BEST (which I would describe as around 2013), it was not enough either in magnitude or in breadth to change the perceptions.

More to the point, at least in my mind, we did not SUSTAIN the 2013 level, but regressed rapidly and precipitously. We need to get back to 2013, sustain that, move upward from there, and keep improving and sustaining. It is fashionable on here to complain about CUSA, but other than baseball for a while (and not in several years) we have not been able to win or contend consistently in any major man's sport. Until we get to be better than CUSA, we have no right to complain about CUSA. And right now, we are worse not better than CUSA.
07-18-2021 10:33 PM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #173
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
(07-18-2021 10:33 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(06-13-2021 04:03 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I apologize if my fervor comes across harshly. That is not my intent. I simply want us all to agree that EVEN AT OUR RECENT BEST (which I would describe as around 2013), it was not enough either in magnitude or in breadth to change the perceptions.

More to the point, at least in my mind, we did not SUSTAIN the 2013 level, but regressed rapidly and precipitously. We need to get back to 2013, sustain that, move upward from there, and keep improving and sustaining. It is fashionable on here to complain about CUSA, but other than baseball for a while (and not in several years) we have not been able to win or contend consistently in any major man's sport. Until we get to be better than CUSA, we have no right to complain about CUSA. And right now, we are worse not better than CUSA.

With NIL, that ship that sailed long ago won't ever return.
07-18-2021 10:42 PM
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Post: #174
2021 football schedule unveiled
(07-18-2021 09:08 PM)NYNightOwl Wrote:  Not worthy of a new thread as there’s nothing new in the article - some positive attention in the NY Post - they’re calling the over for Rice on the 5.5 win Vegas line. Incidentally, they’re also picking Texas as over 8.

https://nypost.com/2021/07/18/3-college-...s-in-2021/


Welp, I guess they got UT beating Rice then.
However with 6 or more wins we are in the division title hunt most likely.
07-18-2021 10:56 PM
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Post: #175
RE: 2021 football schedule unveiled
Quote:Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
· 5h
Odds to win Conference USA via @SuperBookSports:

UAB Even
FAU, Marshall 6/1
UTSA 8/1
Western Kentucky 10/1
Rice 25/1
Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss 30/1
Louisiana Tech 40/1
Charlotte, North Texas 50/1
FIU 60/1
UTEP 80/1
Old Dominion 300/1

This represents the most optimistic projection for Rice I've seen yet.
07-19-2021 04:11 PM
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Post: #176
2021 football schedule unveiled
(07-19-2021 04:11 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
Quote:Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
· 5h
Odds to win Conference USA via @SuperBookSports:

UAB Even
FAU, Marshall 6/1
UTSA 8/1
Western Kentucky 10/1
Rice 25/1
Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss 30/1
Louisiana Tech 40/1
Charlotte, North Texas 50/1
FIU 60/1
UTEP 80/1
Old Dominion 300/1

This represents the most optimistic projection for Rice I've seen yet.


And right about we’re we belong in the pecking order for next year, 6th of 14.
IMO.
07-19-2021 07:08 PM
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