ClairtonPanther
people need to wake up
Posts: 25,056
Joined: Mar 2005
Reputation: 777
I Root For: Pitt/Navy
Location: Portland, Oregon
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P5 Breakaway
How I see this going down:
Stage 1 2024/27
P5 breaks away from the NCAA. From there we will see a 8 team football playoff and a 16 team basketball playoff. We will also see a reduction of football scholarships. The networks do enough to keep the B12 intact. New outlets like Amazon Prime, Netflix, Hulu and Youtube Red join the frey in broadcasting college sports thus pumping up the value of broadcast deals.
Stage 2. Mid to late 2030s
Online platforms ultimately pass ESPN and Fox as the major distributers, but both cable/network outlets will still have a seat at the table. And this is where the fun ultimately begins. I see realignment happening one of two ways: either an 8/10 format or a 4/20 format. Either way, football playoffs will be expanded to 16 teams. Basketball we will see the Big East and a couple other basketball centric power leagues leave the NCAA and joining P4/P8(or whateverdafuq the new league calls itself). Basketball playoffs get expanded to 32 teams.
By the early 2040s, the rest of the NCAA joins the new deal. But all those left behind will be DIV 2 and so on. This happens to allow for the buy in games that were lost.
The only thing that I can think of to speed up the process is for GORs to be thrown away.
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01-25-2021 01:40 PM |
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Wahoowa84
All American
Posts: 3,508
Joined: Oct 2017
Reputation: 507
I Root For: UVa
Location:
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RE: P5 Breakaway
I believe that the NCAA is generally doing well, except for how it distributes revenue generated from the basketball tournament. Specifically, the schools that generate NCAA tournament viewership are not getting a sufficient share of the fruits of their labor. The most successful basketball conferences (e.g., ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, etc.) will first try to change how the NCAA distributes the tournament revenue. If the NCAA doesn’t give the major basketball conferences a larger share of the revenues, this is a “split” should happen.
First, the power conferences limit their participation to 2 teams per conference into the NCAA Tournament and create manage their own alternate tournament for at least 32 teams. In the first few years of this ‘split’, the power conferences will send their best two teams to NCAA-sponsored tournament. This approach allows the NCAA to continue to fulfill its media obligations to CBS and TNT...it also allows power conferences to continue accumulating future units and payouts from the NCAA. The alternate power conference tournament is bid out, but the revenues are split directly by the tournament participants and/or their conferences (similar to the CFP).
Second, the power conferences negotiate with the NCAA for an optional post-tournaments game between the two distinct tournament champions. If the NCAA accepts, the revenue from this one game is split 50/50 (NCAA/power conferences) and power conferences continue to send two high quality teams per conference to the NCAA sponsored event. If the NCAA rejects the offer, the power conferences will further limit their participation to two lower level teams. These lower level teams would normally be seeded in the 4-10 slots by the NCAA selection committee. This becomes a transition window when the power conference tournament gradually begins to have better teams than the NCAA tournament.
Finally, the power conferences terminate any guarantees to have high-level participants in the NCAA tournament and hold a tournament of the best 32 teams. Similar to the CFP, the invited teams to this alternate tournament could include teams from non-power conferences.
Basically, the process is the inverse of how the NCAA usurped basketball prestige from the NIT. It is all voluntary, negotiated and gradual. It allows the NCAA to keep its broader and functions. While the power conferences bring back control of the revenue distribution. The whole process could take anywhere from 3 to 15 years.
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01-25-2021 06:08 PM |
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