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Opinions vary as to how many non-P5 power FB and BB schools there currently are.

One poster on the college realignment board has recently expressed the view that there are no power schools among the G5 and independents, and that the worst of the P5 schools would be upper echelon teams in the G5 conferences.

That opinion (if it was an opinion, as opposed to a troll attack) was clearly not based on evidence, given the fact that there have been multiple non-P5 teams in the football and basketball top 25 lists in recent years.

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There are two categories of non-P5 power schools: (1) Schools that have been members of power conferences; and (2) Schools that have met the performance criteria associated with P5 conference schools over the past decade.

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I. Non-P5 schools that have been members of power conferences:

The original Big East (BB & FB) Conference was the equivalent of a "power" conference, by virtue of being one of the handful of BCS and upper echelon BB conferences. Six G5 schools and one independent school have been members of power conferences:


Former Big East Schools: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Temple (FB), & USF


Former SEC School: Tulane


Former SWC Schools: Houston & SMU

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II. Power-quality non-P5 FB and BB schools:

Criteria considered indicative of a power quality program:

Power quality FB program: Averaged 8 wins per season and played in 8 bowl games, 2010-2019.

Power quality BB program: Averaged 22 wins per season and played in 5+ NCAA tournaments, 2010-2019.


Power quality (FB & BB) schools (not yet members of power conferences):

San Diego State (FB & BB; finished 4 seasons in AP BB Top 25)

BYU (FB & BB; finished 4 seasons in AP BB Top 25)

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Power-quality football schools:

Boise State (FB; finished 7 seasons in AP FB Top 25)

UCF (FB; finished 5 seasons in AP FB Top 25)

Appalachian State (FB; 10 wins per season as an FBS team since 2014)

Navy (FB; 8 wins per season; 8 bowl games)*

*Historically, Navy and Army are the equivalent of power conference programs, and Army has met the stipulated criteria over the past 5 years (averaging 8 wins, playing 4 bowl games)

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Power-quality basketball schools:

Gonzaga (BB; finished 7 seasons in AP BB Top 25)

Wichita State (BB; finished 5 seasons in AP BB Top 25)

VCU (BB; 8 NCAA bids; averaged ~25 wins per season)

Villanova (BB)

Xavier (BB)

Butler (BB)

Creighton (BB)

St. Mary's (BB; finished 3 seasons in AP Top 25)

Memphis (BB; 4 NCAA bids)

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Schools that almost met the power school criteria:

Dayton (BB)

Marquette (BB)

Seton Hall (BB)

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Questions:

1) Have any power quality schools been left off of this list?

2) Would your list be different, and if so, why?

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Notably, the criteria used above to identify "power quality" FB or BB schools are so strict that a number of P5 schools wouldn't meet the criteria.

For example, eight Big Ten FB schools failed to average 8+ wins per season over the past decade:

Illinoise, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Maryland, & Rutgers

Don't think prior conference affiliation is a current valid criteria. If these prior affiliated schools had been worthy, they'd still be there.

One way to look is for schools that perform well in multiple sports.
For example, during 2017-18 "Fifteen schools reached the postseason in football, basketball and baseball". SDSU and Houston were the only non-p5 schools on the list.

http://footballscoop.com/news/football-b...exas-ucla/

there lots of A5 fans that believe just that, that the worst A5 football program would dominate the G5 and win the access bowl every year say like take Vanderbilt, oh and don’t forget A5 people really believe the G5 football IQ is lower than A5 football fans IQ

but who care what they think

(01-24-2021 02:37 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  Don't think prior conference affiliation is a current valid criteria. If these prior affiliated schools had been worthy, they'd still be there.

Politics kept UH out of the Big 12. We were "worthy" otherwise.

(01-24-2021 08:04 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(01-24-2021 02:37 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  Don't think prior conference affiliation is a current valid criteria. If these prior affiliated schools had been worthy, they'd still be there.

Politics kept UH out of the Big 12. We were "worthy" otherwise.

Don't disagree but nonetheless "worthy" is in the eyes of those in control for it to have value.

As much as I don't want to be the one to say it, you need to put Army in the FB power schools.

A long stretch of lean years in Monken's first couple and before. But for the last five years, they've hit your metrics - 8.6 wins per year, 4 bowls out of 5 years (all Ws). They should keep that up with two FCS teams per year and long term deals with UMass and UConn.
MORE importantly, they have the brand and name recognition. Teams like Oklahoma will agree to visit Michie. Half of a perennial top-ten-viewer game. History back to the beginning of college football including national championships and three Heisman winners.

(01-24-2021 10:03 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  As much as I don't want to be the one to say it, you need to put Army in the FB power schools.

A long stretch of lean years in Monken's first couple and before. But for the last five years, they've hit your metrics - 8.6 wins per year, 4 bowls out of 5 years (all Ws). They should keep that up with two FCS teams per year and long term deals with UMass and UConn.
MORE importantly, they have the brand and name recognition. Teams like Oklahoma will agree to visit Michie. Half of a perennial top-ten-viewer game. History back to the beginning of college football including national championships and three Heisman winners.

True, Army is just as much of a power school through history as Purdue or Pitt is.

Toledo has averaged 8.5 wins during that span along with 8 bowl appearances. (Would have been 10, but was left out in 2013 with a 7-5 and 2019 with 6-6 records respectively).
Basketball has averaged 20 wins per season, and is presently on track again with a 13-4 start (losses at Michigan, Xavier, Bradley, and Akron). - three of those were a by a total of four points...
I would say we are borderline for this criteria in both sports...

Toledo is a nice little program, but has never really been in the national conversation for either sport.

(01-25-2021 11:41 AM)mustangxc Wrote:  Toledo is a nice little program, but has never really been in the national conversation for either sport.

“ Toledo is a nice little program” - yeah, I guess !!
Kind of hard to find your niche when you are sandwiched between UM(45 miles north), o$u(115 miles south), and then you have Notre Dame(150 miles west)...
- We jus a lil ol MAC program boss, but we try harder next time !!

Power in football is much more delineated...in that Power = P5 conferences institutions (plus ND). There's a little more leeway in bball, in that there are multiple institutions that qualify using P5 metrics. Beit, ratings, attendance, budget, recruiting, ability to poach coaches (from P5), licensing... The brand lasts over time and is not dependent on year to year results for survival.

(01-24-2021 11:11 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

Opinions vary as to how many non-P5 power FB and BB schools there currently are.

One poster on the college realignment board has recently expressed the view that there are no power schools among the G5 and independents, and that the worst of the P5 schools would be upper echelon teams in the G5 conferences.

That opinion (if it was an opinion, as opposed to a troll attack) was clearly not based on evidence, given the fact that there have been multiple non-P5 teams in the football and basketball top 25 lists in recent years.

.

There are two categories of non-P5 power schools: (1) Schools that have been members of power conferences; and (2) Schools that have met the performance criteria associated with P5 conference schools over the past decade.

.

I. Non-P5 schools that have been members of power conferences:

The original Big East (BB & FB) Conference was the equivalent of a "power" conference, by virtue of being one of the handful of BCS and upper echelon BB conferences. Six G5 schools and one independent school have been members of power conferences:


Former Big East Schools: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Temple (FB), & USF


Former SEC School: Tulane


Former SWC Schools: Houston & SMU

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II. Power-quality non-P5 FB and BB schools:

Criteria considered indicative of a power quality program:

Power quality FB program: Averaged 8 wins per season and played in 8 bowl games, 2010-2019.

Power quality BB program: Averaged 22 wins per season and played in 5+ NCAA tournaments, 2010-2019.


Power quality (FB & BB) schools (not yet members of power conferences):

San Diego State (FB & BB; finished 4 seasons in AP BB Top 25)

BYU (FB & BB; finished 4 seasons in AP BB Top 25)

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Power-quality football schools:

Boise State (FB; finished 7 seasons in AP FB Top 25)

UCF (FB; finished 5 seasons in AP FB Top 25)

Appalachian State (FB; 10 wins per season as an FBS team since 2014)

Navy (FB; 8 wins per season; 8 bowl games)*

*Historically, Navy and Army are the equivalent of power conference programs, and Army has met the stipulated criteria over the past 5 years (averaging 8 wins, playing 4 bowl games)

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Power-quality basketball schools:

Gonzaga (BB; finished 7 seasons in AP BB Top 25)

Wichita State (BB; finished 5 seasons in AP BB Top 25)

VCU (BB; 8 NCAA bids; averaged ~25 wins per season)

Villanova (BB)

Xavier (BB)

Butler (BB)

Creighton (BB)

St. Mary's (BB; finished 3 seasons in AP Top 25)

Memphis (BB; 4 NCAA bids)

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Schools that almost met the power school criteria:

Dayton (BB)

Marquette (BB)

Seton Hall (BB)

......................................................................................................

Questions:

1) Have any power quality schools been left off of this list?

2) Would your list be different, and if so, why?

The division is P6 and G4. Try to keep up.

(01-24-2021 08:26 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(01-24-2021 08:04 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(01-24-2021 02:37 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  Don't think prior conference affiliation is a current valid criteria. If these prior affiliated schools had been worthy, they'd still be there.

Politics kept UH out of the Big 12. We were "worthy" otherwise.

Don't disagree but nonetheless "worthy" is in the eyes of those in control for it to have value.

Yes, "worthy" is in the eyes of those in control, but that's exactly the point that "WhoseHouse" was trying to make when he contradicted your argument that "If these prior affiliated schools had been worthy, they'd still be there."

It wasn't that Houston hadn't proven their long-term worthiness, but that whomever was in charge of which SWC teams were going to the Big 12 happened to be heavily swayed by politics and, in addition, by what's known as a "recency effect," which means that, in addition to the political considerations that have been written about extensively, they showed a heavy bias toward invited the 4 teams that simply happened to have had the best record over the past 3 seasons, and ignored the schools' long-term record in the conference.

What that means is that a team like Houston was unlucky, not unworthy.

If you'd like proof of their worthiness, consider this: 9 Houston FB teams were ranked in the AP Top 20 between 1976 and 1991, when they played in the SWC, 6 of these teams finished in the Final AP 20, and 4 played in the Cotton Bowl, where they acquitted themselves well (winning 2, and losing a third to a Joe Montana-led (#10) Notre Dame by a single point).

During the same era, 8 Houston BB teams played in NCAA tournaments, three advanced to the Final Four, and two advanced to play in the 1983 and 1984 NCAA championship games. The Cougars won twelve NCAA Tournament games during their membership in the SWC. Five Houston teams were nationally ranked, and two finished their seasons in the Final AP Top 25.

During the same period, only 3 Texas Tech FB teams were ranked in the AP Top 20, only two finished in the Final AP Top 20, and only one Texas Tech FB team, with a 6-6 record represented the SWC in a Cotton Bowl game (which they lost, 55-12). Moreover, while 4 Baylor FB teams finished seasons in the Final AP Top 20, only one played in the Cotton Bowl (losing, 39-2).

Five Texas Tech teams played in NCAA tournaments and two advanced to the sweet sixteen during the years that Houston was a member of the SWC, but, unlike Houston, none advanced to the Elite Eight. The Red Raiders won 3 NCAA games during that period. Baylor only sent one team to the NCAA tournament, which lost its first-round game during the years that Houston was a member of the SWC.

The data thus provide resounding evidence indicating that Texas Tech and Baylor had significantly poorer FB and BB programs than Houston had during the years when Houston was a member of the SWC. However, despite that fact, they - - and not Houston - - were among the four SWC teams that were invited to join the Big 12 in 1996.

(01-24-2021 02:37 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  Don't think prior conference affiliation is a current valid criteria. If these prior affiliated schools had been worthy, they'd still be there.

Unfortunately, that theory makes absolutely no sense at all with respect to Cincinnati, which wasn't invited to join a P5 conference, vis a vis Rutgers, which was invited to join the Big Ten.

Cincy was in the Big East from 2005-06 through 2012-2013.

During that time, Cincy played in six bowl games (record: 4-2) and three NCAA tournaments (3-3). Five Cincy BB teams and five Cincy FB teams were ranked in AP Top 25 polls; Four Cincinnati FB teams finished in the Final AP Top 25 during their time in the Big East; one played in the Sugar Bowl, and one played in the Orange Bowl.

Q: How did Rutgers perform during the same period?

A: No Rutgers BB teams received NCAA tournament bids between 2005-06 and 2012-2013, and none appeared in a single AP Top 25 poll.

Although Rutgers FB had some notable accomplishments, such as playing in 7 bowl games between 2005 and 2012, only one Rutgers team finished a season in a Final AP Top 25 FB poll, and none played in a premier bowl game like the Sugar or Orange Bowl.

Q: So Cincy had a stronger football program than Rutgers and a much, much stronger basketball program than Rutgers in the years preceding the dissolution of the original Big East conference, making them substantially more qualified to receive an invitation to join a P5 conference?

A: Correct.

Q: Well then, isn't it obvious that - - because those who are least worthy don't tend to get ahead in this world, Rutgers must have been the school that didn't receive an invitation to join a P5 conference?

A: Incorrect. Cincy had by far the worthiest BB and FB programs, but despite that fact, Rutgers was the school that received an invitation to join a P5 conference (in this case, one of the top tier P5 conferences).

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The examples of Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor, Cincinnati, and Rutgers don't simply demonstrate that the worthiest of these teams were not invited to join P5 conferences.

These examples show, much more importantly, that in these cases, the athletic programs of the Big East and SWC schools that were invited to join P5 conferences were significantly less worthy than the two schools that didn't receive such invitations.

These findings provide fairly conclusive evidence in support of the conclusion that the selection processes that have determined which non-P5 teams should receive invitations to join P5 conferences have been flawed.

These findings may help to explain why there have been so many non-P5 teams listed in annual post-season Top 25 FB and BB rankings in recent years.

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