(02-23-2021 11:18 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  According to one of the columnists or beat writers - can't recall which - Lunardi says if we win out the regular season we will be on the bubble with a good shot at getting an AL bid. However, Palm says we won't and we have to win the tourney. I am choosing to believe Lunardi on this one. For all the reasons previously stated.

Based mostly on Jerry Palm being a POS who has always been against us.

(02-23-2021 11:29 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(02-23-2021 11:18 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  According to one of the columnists or beat writers - can't recall which - Lunardi says if we win out the regular season we will be on the bubble with a good shot at getting an AL bid. However, Palm says we won't and we have to win the tourney. I am choosing to believe Lunardi on this one. For all the reasons previously stated.

Based mostly on Jerry Palm being a POS who has always been against us.

Then there's that.
Not sure why that is, but he typically does put the most negative spin possible on our program.

If we win out that means we beat Houston and swept Wichita and have won the AAC. Kenpom would be somewhere mid to high 20s and the net would have to be significantly better than the current 63. No way we wouldn’t get in as long as we didn’t lose first round of the tournament to Tulane or something.

UPDATED after win over Tulane:
KenPom #45, up 2. Offense #165, Defense #2. 2nd in AAC, 7 ahead of SMU.
NET #62, up 1. 3rd in AAC, 2 behind SMU.
BPI #55, down 1. 3rd in AAC, 6 behind SMU.
Sagarin #50, no change. 2nd in AAC, 1 ahead of SMU.

So during our shutdown we have moved up decently in KenPom, while treading water in the others.
Wichita is still not preferred by the computers, while the bubble pundits do like them.
Computers says we're neck-neck with SMU for #2 slot.
We are entering that territory in KenPom (top 45) where it is a surprise if we DON'T make the tourney.

(02-25-2021 04:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  UPDATED after win over Tulane:
KenPom #45, up 2. Offense #165, Defense #2. 2nd in AAC, 7 ahead of SMU.
NET #62, up 1. 3rd in AAC, 2 behind SMU.
BPI #55, down 1. 3rd in AAC, 6 behind SMU.
Sagarin #50, no change. 2nd in AAC, 1 ahead of SMU.

So during our shutdown we have moved up decently in KenPom, while treading water in the others.
Wichita is still not preferred by the computers, while the bubble pundits do like them.
Computers says we're neck-neck with SMU for #2 slot.
We are entering that territory in KenPom (top 45) where it is a surprise if we DON'T make the tourney.

One thing that will hopefully work in our favour, is that there are obvious problems with the NET. Loyola, Colgate, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Belmont and Kentucky are all embarrassing.

(02-25-2021 05:59 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 04:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  UPDATED after win over Tulane:
KenPom #45, up 2. Offense #165, Defense #2. 2nd in AAC, 7 ahead of SMU.
NET #62, up 1. 3rd in AAC, 2 behind SMU.
BPI #55, down 1. 3rd in AAC, 6 behind SMU.
Sagarin #50, no change. 2nd in AAC, 1 ahead of SMU.

So during our shutdown we have moved up decently in KenPom, while treading water in the others.
Wichita is still not preferred by the computers, while the bubble pundits do like them.
Computers says we're neck-neck with SMU for #2 slot.
We are entering that territory in KenPom (top 45) where it is a surprise if we DON'T make the tourney.

One thing that will hopefully work in our favour, is that there are obvious problems with the NET. Loyola, Colgate, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Belmont and Kentucky are all embarrassing.

This will be THE most talked about and controversial 68 team selection process in history. Metrics are great, but times are different! "They" do NOT want to leave out major college Blue Bloods. Duke is already penciled in. Hell, Michigan St. is now back in the conversation, after winning one game against a quality opponent.

So one has to ask - is it the whole season body of work, or is it recency bias? or is it who the hell they want just because?

That's why our chances for an at large bid are up in the air. Let's win out, including the AAC tourney. The only way to secure it.

(02-25-2021 06:08 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 05:59 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 04:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  UPDATED after win over Tulane:
KenPom #45, up 2. Offense #165, Defense #2. 2nd in AAC, 7 ahead of SMU.
NET #62, up 1. 3rd in AAC, 2 behind SMU.
BPI #55, down 1. 3rd in AAC, 6 behind SMU.
Sagarin #50, no change. 2nd in AAC, 1 ahead of SMU.

So during our shutdown we have moved up decently in KenPom, while treading water in the others.
Wichita is still not preferred by the computers, while the bubble pundits do like them.
Computers says we're neck-neck with SMU for #2 slot.
We are entering that territory in KenPom (top 45) where it is a surprise if we DON'T make the tourney.

One thing that will hopefully work in our favour, is that there are obvious problems with the NET. Loyola, Colgate, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Belmont and Kentucky are all embarrassing.

This will be THE most talked about and controversial 68 team selection process in history. Metrics are great, but times are different! "They" do NOT want to leave out major college Blue Bloods. Duke is already penciled in. Hell, Michigan St. is now back in the conversation, after winning one game against a quality opponent.

So one has to ask - is it the whole season body of work, or is it recency bias? or is it who the hell they want just because?

That's why our chances for an at large bid are up in the air. Let's win out, including the AAC tourney. The only way to secure it.

They had the perfect system to screw non P5 programs in the first days of the RPI, when home and road wins were weighted the same. P5 almost never play on the road against non P5 so it worked out perfectly well. Then when non P5 programs started scoring much better, they had to change that to the eye test in order to screw them over.

They will figure out a way to get the math figured out, they just haven't yet.

Thought the cincy win on the road would have moved them a spot or 2 in kenpom but we stayed the same or dropped 1 spot. I can’t remember where we were. Hopefully whatever super secret formula the NET uses values the q2 road win more since it’s already significantly behind the actually useful models. Really need to push it to the high 50s so we have a chance to just touch the 40s possibly with a win at Houston.

Our problem is how badly the AAC is valued. We best UH, they just devalue UH.

OP UPDATED 3/1, after win over Cincy:
KenPom #47, down 2. Offense #152, Defense #2. SMU #49. Wichita #74.
NET #60, up 2. SMU #55. Wichita #66.
BPI #56, down 1. SMU #48. Wichita #99.
Sagarin #48, up 2. SMU #53. Wichita #66.

Bubble watch:
Lunardi has Wichita in as a 12-seed.
Gasaway has Wichita and SMU on the bubble.
Palm has Wichita in as a 10-seed.

(03-01-2021 09:58 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  OP UPDATED 3/1, after win over Cincy:
KenPom #47, down 2. Offense #152, Defense #2. SMU #49. Wichita #74.
NET #60, up 2. SMU #55. Wichita #66.
BPI #56, down 1. SMU #48. Wichita #99.
Sagarin #48, up 2. SMU #53. Wichita #66.

Bubble watch:
Lunardi has Wichita in as a 12-seed.
Gasaway has Wichita and SMU on the bubble.
Palm has Wichita in as a 10-seed.

Tigerspartan says Wichita is in because they beat Ole Piss.

Shockers beat Houston.

Wichita state has no quad 3 losses.

4-4 in quad 1/2.

We have a quad 3 loss.

We are 4-5 in quad 1/2. If we beat Houston we will be 5-5 and still have a quad 3 loss. They will still be in over us.

UNLESS we beat them or Houston again in conference tournament.

Stammers is a slow learner. He will come around to reality eventually.

Cheers

(03-01-2021 10:03 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(03-01-2021 09:58 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  OP UPDATED 3/1, after win over Cincy:
KenPom #47, down 2. Offense #152, Defense #2. SMU #49. Wichita #74.
NET #60, up 2. SMU #55. Wichita #66.
BPI #56, down 1. SMU #48. Wichita #99.
Sagarin #48, up 2. SMU #53. Wichita #66.

Bubble watch:
Lunardi has Wichita in as a 12-seed.
Gasaway has Wichita and SMU on the bubble.
Palm has Wichita in as a 10-seed.

Tigerspartan says Wichita is in because they beat Ole Piss.

i guess kentucky will be in after this week

The computers like us more.

We just don’t have the resume. It is what it is.

(03-01-2021 11:23 AM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  Wichita state has no quad 3 losses.

4-4 in quad 1/2.

We have a quad 3 loss.

We are 4-5 in quad 1/2. If we beat Houston we will be 5-5 and still have a quad 3 loss. They will still be in over us.

UNLESS we beat them or Houston again in conference tournament.

Stammers is a slow learner. He will come around to reality eventually.

Cheers

So Wichita is in because they beat Ole Piss. I get it now, you're a drunk (yes I know redundant) Ole Piss fan. We will be way ahead of them based on every metric known to man including head to head, and head to head among us, Houston and Wichita.

Not good enough for the drunk Ole Piss fan.

(03-01-2021 11:26 AM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  The computers like us more.

We just don’t have the resume. It is what it is.

Win our next two and we will be 2-0 against Houston and Wichita which include a road win against the team that is 3,4,6 according to the computer, and a 20 point beatdown of Wichita. Wichita will be 1-2 with a home win against Houston, a 20 point beatdown against us, BUT they will get in because they beat Ole Piss. You don't understand how this works. Lunardi and others come up with their half baked nonsense until 5 minutes before Selection Sunday, then they fall in line with common sense.

(03-01-2021 11:35 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(03-01-2021 11:23 AM)Tigerspartan Wrote:  Wichita state has no quad 3 losses.

4-4 in quad 1/2.

We have a quad 3 loss.

We are 4-5 in quad 1/2. If we beat Houston we will be 5-5 and still have a quad 3 loss. They will still be in over us.

UNLESS we beat them or Houston again in conference tournament.

Stammers is a slow learner. He will come around to reality eventually.

Cheers

So Wichita is in because they beat Ole Piss. I get it now, you're a drunk (yes I know redundant) Ole Piss fan. We will be way ahead of them based on every metric known to man including head to head, and head to head among us, Houston and Wichita.

Not good enough for the drunk Ole Piss fan.

I scratch my head every year and wonder which metric that the Selection Committee will use to get as many of the power conference teams in. Will it be quad wins or NET rankings or maybe this year they will have a special conference standing ranking?

This year, there's a new layer of intrigue added.
The NCAA will have alternates or replacements. Any team that has to backout after Selection Sunday, but before the start of the tourney, will be replaced by an alternate - a team on the wrong side of the bubble. If the team withdrawing is from a 1-bid league, the league can replace with their #2 team. If it's an at large, then the replacement will be at large.
With no re-seeding. Meaning if Memphis is an alternate, and if Gonzaga has to withdraw, Memphis could become the #1 seed.

(03-01-2021 04:16 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  This year, there's a new layer of intrigue added.
The NCAA will have alternates or replacements. Any team that has to backout after Selection Sunday, but before the start of the tourney, will be replaced by an alternate - a team on the wrong side of the bubble. If the team withdrawing is from a 1-bid league, the league can replace with their #2 team. If it's an at large, then the replacement will be at large.
With no re-seeding. Meaning if Memphis is an alternate, and if Gonzaga has to withdraw, Memphis could become the #1 seed.

so you're saying their system might be flawed