(02-23-2021 11:18 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  According to one of the columnists or beat writers - can't recall which - Lunardi says if we win out the regular season we will be on the bubble with a good shot at getting an AL bid. However, Palm says we won't and we have to win the tourney. I am choosing to believe Lunardi on this one. For all the reasons previously stated.

Based mostly on Jerry Palm being a POS who has always been against us.

(02-23-2021 11:29 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(02-23-2021 11:18 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  According to one of the columnists or beat writers - can't recall which - Lunardi says if we win out the regular season we will be on the bubble with a good shot at getting an AL bid. However, Palm says we won't and we have to win the tourney. I am choosing to believe Lunardi on this one. For all the reasons previously stated.

Based mostly on Jerry Palm being a POS who has always been against us.

Then there's that.
Not sure why that is, but he typically does put the most negative spin possible on our program.

If we win out that means we beat Houston and swept Wichita and have won the AAC. Kenpom would be somewhere mid to high 20s and the net would have to be significantly better than the current 63. No way we wouldn’t get in as long as we didn’t lose first round of the tournament to Tulane or something.

UPDATED after win over Tulane:
KenPom #45, up 2. Offense #165, Defense #2. 2nd in AAC, 7 ahead of SMU.
NET #62, up 1. 3rd in AAC, 2 behind SMU.
BPI #55, down 1. 3rd in AAC, 6 behind SMU.
Sagarin #50, no change. 2nd in AAC, 1 ahead of SMU.

So during our shutdown we have moved up decently in KenPom, while treading water in the others.
Wichita is still not preferred by the computers, while the bubble pundits do like them.
Computers says we're neck-neck with SMU for #2 slot.
We are entering that territory in KenPom (top 45) where it is a surprise if we DON'T make the tourney.

(02-25-2021 04:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  UPDATED after win over Tulane:
KenPom #45, up 2. Offense #165, Defense #2. 2nd in AAC, 7 ahead of SMU.
NET #62, up 1. 3rd in AAC, 2 behind SMU.
BPI #55, down 1. 3rd in AAC, 6 behind SMU.
Sagarin #50, no change. 2nd in AAC, 1 ahead of SMU.

So during our shutdown we have moved up decently in KenPom, while treading water in the others.
Wichita is still not preferred by the computers, while the bubble pundits do like them.
Computers says we're neck-neck with SMU for #2 slot.
We are entering that territory in KenPom (top 45) where it is a surprise if we DON'T make the tourney.

One thing that will hopefully work in our favour, is that there are obvious problems with the NET. Loyola, Colgate, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Belmont and Kentucky are all embarrassing.

(02-25-2021 05:59 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 04:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  UPDATED after win over Tulane:
KenPom #45, up 2. Offense #165, Defense #2. 2nd in AAC, 7 ahead of SMU.
NET #62, up 1. 3rd in AAC, 2 behind SMU.
BPI #55, down 1. 3rd in AAC, 6 behind SMU.
Sagarin #50, no change. 2nd in AAC, 1 ahead of SMU.

So during our shutdown we have moved up decently in KenPom, while treading water in the others.
Wichita is still not preferred by the computers, while the bubble pundits do like them.
Computers says we're neck-neck with SMU for #2 slot.
We are entering that territory in KenPom (top 45) where it is a surprise if we DON'T make the tourney.

One thing that will hopefully work in our favour, is that there are obvious problems with the NET. Loyola, Colgate, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Belmont and Kentucky are all embarrassing.

This will be THE most talked about and controversial 68 team selection process in history. Metrics are great, but times are different! "They" do NOT want to leave out major college Blue Bloods. Duke is already penciled in. Hell, Michigan St. is now back in the conversation, after winning one game against a quality opponent.

So one has to ask - is it the whole season body of work, or is it recency bias? or is it who the hell they want just because?

That's why our chances for an at large bid are up in the air. Let's win out, including the AAC tourney. The only way to secure it.

(02-25-2021 06:08 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 05:59 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 04:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  UPDATED after win over Tulane:
KenPom #45, up 2. Offense #165, Defense #2. 2nd in AAC, 7 ahead of SMU.
NET #62, up 1. 3rd in AAC, 2 behind SMU.
BPI #55, down 1. 3rd in AAC, 6 behind SMU.
Sagarin #50, no change. 2nd in AAC, 1 ahead of SMU.

So during our shutdown we have moved up decently in KenPom, while treading water in the others.
Wichita is still not preferred by the computers, while the bubble pundits do like them.
Computers says we're neck-neck with SMU for #2 slot.
We are entering that territory in KenPom (top 45) where it is a surprise if we DON'T make the tourney.

One thing that will hopefully work in our favour, is that there are obvious problems with the NET. Loyola, Colgate, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Belmont and Kentucky are all embarrassing.

This will be THE most talked about and controversial 68 team selection process in history. Metrics are great, but times are different! "They" do NOT want to leave out major college Blue Bloods. Duke is already penciled in. Hell, Michigan St. is now back in the conversation, after winning one game against a quality opponent.

So one has to ask - is it the whole season body of work, or is it recency bias? or is it who the hell they want just because?

That's why our chances for an at large bid are up in the air. Let's win out, including the AAC tourney. The only way to secure it.

They had the perfect system to screw non P5 programs in the first days of the RPI, when home and road wins were weighted the same. P5 almost never play on the road against non P5 so it worked out perfectly well. Then when non P5 programs started scoring much better, they had to change that to the eye test in order to screw them over.

They will figure out a way to get the math figured out, they just haven't yet.