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"Rankings" thread for the season
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Stammers Online
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Post: #61
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

If we move up a couple of spots in each of the other 7 games, it all adds up.
02-02-2021 02:55 PM
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tkgrrett Online
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Post: #62
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 01:16 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

Not exactly. We won't be making 15 point jumps in one day any longer. But if we win big, while improving our offensive effieciency, then we can still make 6ish spot jumps - even against a bad opponent. As we did last night. 2 games remaining vs Cincy will also be big, if we perform efficiently (assists, shooting, turnovers).

We dont know the exact formula for NET but im assuming it will behave the same as any efficiency-based stat.

Essentially, the higher you climb the more difficult each incremental gain is. So just as an example, if our last win against UCF jumped us 4 spots, an equivalent performance Wednesday would move us less (like 2 or 3 spots) all else being equal.

This year is crazy though so who really knows
02-02-2021 02:57 PM
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Stammers Online
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Post: #63
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 01:59 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:27 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 12:56 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

We have to beat WSU and at least split with Houston.

As much as fans like to give them, it's still too early for ultimatums. A few weeks ago, many here were saying "the only way we get a bid is to win the AAC tourney". That's obviously being proven as inaccurate - as we've climbed into bubble territory with a KenPom of #50.

Losing to Houston won't hurt our metrics - unless it's a complete blowout. Winning 1 would absolutely help our resume. But if we take care of the rest of the conference, and play UH close, then there's still a path.

Finishing #2 in conference and #40 in the ranking services would get us an At Large.

There is no ultimatum. I just think if we beat WSU and split with Houston and take care of the rest of the games we should win then we are in without having to hope for this, that or the other to happen to keep our path open.

Is that a fact? This is a direct quote from you...

Quote:At this point, our only road to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference tournament.

Your quote is the definition of an ultimatum, from January 4th, which is the definition of a few weeks ago. You have poor self awareness, or a bad memory, or both.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021 03:08 PM by Stammers.)
02-02-2021 03:05 PM
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oruvoice Offline
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Post: #64
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
Beating WSU on the road, splitting with Houston, and winning all the remainder of our games ain't happening.

Hopefully we'll be peaking at the conference tourney and can pull that off.
02-02-2021 03:21 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #65
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 02:57 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:16 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

Not exactly. We won't be making 15 point jumps in one day any longer. But if we win big, while improving our offensive effieciency, then we can still make 6ish spot jumps - even against a bad opponent. As we did last night. 2 games remaining vs Cincy will also be big, if we perform efficiently (assists, shooting, turnovers).

We dont know the exact formula for NET but im assuming it will behave the same as any efficiency-based stat.

Essentially, the higher you climb the more difficult each incremental gain is. So just as an example, if our last win against UCF jumped us 4 spots, an equivalent performance Wednesday would move us less (like 2 or 3 spots) all else being equal.

This year is crazy though so who really knows

True.

But to be clear. We've actually moved up 6 spots since our last game - not 4 spots. I guess we moved 4 overnight, but I'm tracking movement from game to game - since that's what we control.

So if we can move 6 spots within a few days and 1 win, then we could move another 4 by the time we beat UCF again.

Plus, since the NET seems to be lagging us when compared to the other 3 algorithm-based rankings, we still have more potential to make some decent moves there.
02-02-2021 03:26 PM
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Eagleonpar Offline
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Post: #66
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 02:55 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

If we move up a couple of spots in each of the other 7 games, it all adds up.

Go 8-2 last 10 games and get to the finals and we are in
02-02-2021 03:53 PM
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k2tigers Offline
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Post: #67
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
we better hope the AAC Tournament isn't cancelled
02-02-2021 04:36 PM
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macgar32 Online
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Post: #68
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 01:18 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:07 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  OP UPDATED 2/2, after the UCF win:
KenPom #50, up 7. Offense #133, Defense #4. Second in AAC.
NET #62, up 6. Third in AAC.
BPI #53, up 8. Third in AAC.
Sagarin #55, up 3. Second in AAC.

I've added our conference placement, according to the ranking service. There is a theory that the AAC will get a minimum of 2 teams in the NCAA. So it's important for us to be that 2nd place team. Right now, we're neck-and-neck with SMU. And of course we split the season with them too.

Wichita St. is a factor too - need to beat them on the road

Beat Wichita State on the road by 15+ and we will move close to 10 spots in the Net. Net really rewards road games...I assume they have a multiplier for Road wins and Home Losses.

Home game blowouts help...

Road game wins above projected expectations will cause large moves for the Net.

Now KenPom is what it is...Unless you win by 50.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021 05:16 PM by macgar32.)
02-02-2021 05:11 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #69
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 03:53 PM)Eagleonpar Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 02:55 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

If we move up a couple of spots in each of the other 7 games, it all adds up.

Go 8-2 last 10 games and get to the finals and we are in

If we go 8-2 down the stretch, I don't think we need conference finals to get in. I think we would be in already - so just don't take a 1st round loss.

We would be 18-8, and would have at least a single Quad1 win. Not great, but probably enough - because we wouldn't have a terrible loss.

Say we lose twice to Houston and beat everyone else (which is exactly what KenPom says should happen). We would be:
Quad1 = 1-3
Quad2 = 5-4
Quad3 = 7-1
Quad4 = 5-0

We would be in the 40's in KenPom. And we would likely finish second in conference. We would need SMU to lose 1 more, and Tulsa to lose 2 more. So, SMU beats Tulsa twice and loses @ Wichita.

Of course, we had a similar opportunity last year at this time, and we went 5-5 down the stretch.

Just like it's too early for ultimatums, it's also too early to play the "what if" game. So, let's go 1-0 in our next game.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021 05:44 PM by Tiger87.)
02-02-2021 05:28 PM
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cmt Offline
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Post: #70
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
I only expect one more loss before AAC tournament, and I think we win it. So there.
02-02-2021 05:38 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #71
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 05:11 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:18 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:07 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  OP UPDATED 2/2, after the UCF win:
KenPom #50, up 7. Offense #133, Defense #4. Second in AAC.
NET #62, up 6. Third in AAC.
BPI #53, up 8. Third in AAC.
Sagarin #55, up 3. Second in AAC.

I've added our conference placement, according to the ranking service. There is a theory that the AAC will get a minimum of 2 teams in the NCAA. So it's important for us to be that 2nd place team. Right now, we're neck-and-neck with SMU. And of course we split the season with them too.

Wichita St. is a factor too - need to beat them on the road

Beat Wichita State on the road by 15+ and we will move close to 10 spots in the Net. Net really rewards road games...I assume they have a multiplier for Road wins and Home Losses.

Home game blowouts help...

Road game wins above projected expectations will cause large moves for the Net.

Now KenPom is what it is...Unless you win by 50.

Scoring margin was removed from the NET this year. Now it's just efficiency and (basically) SOS. And as you said, the value of road games seems to have a multiplier.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021 05:40 PM by Tiger87.)
02-02-2021 05:40 PM
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Post: #72
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 05:40 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 05:11 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:18 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:07 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  OP UPDATED 2/2, after the UCF win:
KenPom #50, up 7. Offense #133, Defense #4. Second in AAC.
NET #62, up 6. Third in AAC.
BPI #53, up 8. Third in AAC.
Sagarin #55, up 3. Second in AAC.

I've added our conference placement, according to the ranking service. There is a theory that the AAC will get a minimum of 2 teams in the NCAA. So it's important for us to be that 2nd place team. Right now, we're neck-and-neck with SMU. And of course we split the season with them too.

Wichita St. is a factor too - need to beat them on the road

Beat Wichita State on the road by 15+ and we will move close to 10 spots in the Net. Net really rewards road games...I assume they have a multiplier for Road wins and Home Losses.

Home game blowouts help...

Road game wins above projected expectations will cause large moves for the Net.

Now KenPom is what it is...Unless you win by 50.

Scoring margin was removed from the NET this year. Now it's just efficiency and (basically) SOS. And as you said, the value of road games seems to have a multiplier.

efficiency is Scoring Margin adjusted for pace...It was duplicated before when they had both.

If you beat a team 120 to 80 in 100 possessions your offensive efficiency 1.2 and defensive is .8

If you beat a team 70 to 40 in 50 possessions your offensive efficiency is 1.4 and defensive efficiency is .8.

They are essentially looking at your offensive efficiency vs. your defensive efficiency.

So yeah...Blowouts really help your efficiency.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2021 08:29 PM by macgar32.)
02-02-2021 06:32 PM
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Post: #73
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 04:36 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  we better hope the AAC Tournament isn't cancelled

It won’t be.
02-02-2021 07:20 PM
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Unionman76 Offline
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Post: #74
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 07:20 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 04:36 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  we better hope the AAC Tournament isn't cancelled

It won’t be.

there are 15 events on the dickies arena events schedule

our conference tournament is not one of them
02-02-2021 07:30 PM
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SeñorTiger Online
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Post: #75
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 03:05 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:59 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:27 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 12:56 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

We have to beat WSU and at least split with Houston.

As much as fans like to give them, it's still too early for ultimatums. A few weeks ago, many here were saying "the only way we get a bid is to win the AAC tourney". That's obviously being proven as inaccurate - as we've climbed into bubble territory with a KenPom of #50.

Losing to Houston won't hurt our metrics - unless it's a complete blowout. Winning 1 would absolutely help our resume. But if we take care of the rest of the conference, and play UH close, then there's still a path.

Finishing #2 in conference and #40 in the ranking services would get us an At Large.

There is no ultimatum. I just think if we beat WSU and split with Houston and take care of the rest of the games we should win then we are in without having to hope for this, that or the other to happen to keep our path open.

Is that a fact? This is a direct quote from you...

Quote:At this point, our only road to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference tournament.

Your quote is the definition of an ultimatum, from January 4th, which is the definition of a few weeks ago. You have poor self awareness, or a bad memory, or both.

Oh boy, drudge a past from weeks ago and apply to a statement today... Yes, that was a quote from weeks ago which is completely irrelevant to the comment I was responding to today. But yes, I am the one that lacks self awareness. Praise the Lord for the woke people such as you to shed the light for those of us walking around in the darkness...
02-02-2021 10:00 PM
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Stammers Online
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Post: #76
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 10:00 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 03:05 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:59 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:27 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 12:56 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  We have to beat WSU and at least split with Houston.

As much as fans like to give them, it's still too early for ultimatums. A few weeks ago, many here were saying "the only way we get a bid is to win the AAC tourney". That's obviously being proven as inaccurate - as we've climbed into bubble territory with a KenPom of #50.

Losing to Houston won't hurt our metrics - unless it's a complete blowout. Winning 1 would absolutely help our resume. But if we take care of the rest of the conference, and play UH close, then there's still a path.

Finishing #2 in conference and #40 in the ranking services would get us an At Large.

There is no ultimatum. I just think if we beat WSU and split with Houston and take care of the rest of the games we should win then we are in without having to hope for this, that or the other to happen to keep our path open.

Is that a fact? This is a direct quote from you...

Quote:At this point, our only road to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference tournament.

Your quote is the definition of an ultimatum, from January 4th, which is the definition of a few weeks ago. You have poor self awareness, or a bad memory, or both.

Oh boy, drudge a past from weeks ago and apply to a statement today... Yes, that was a quote from weeks ago which is completely irrelevant to the comment I was responding to today. But yes, I am the one that lacks self awareness. Praise the Lord for the woke people such as you to shed the light for those of us walking around in the darkness...

Tiger87 said...
Quote:As much as fans like to give them, it's still too early for ultimatums. A few weeks ago, many here were saying "the only way we get a bid is to win the AAC tourney". That's obviously being proven as inaccurate

He was referring you saying exactly that...
Quote:At this point, our only road to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference tournament.

So your response to his statement about fans a few weeks ago, quoting you a few weeks ago is, wait for it...
Quote:Oh boy, drudge a past from weeks ago and apply to a statement today... Yes, that was a quote from weeks ago which is completely irrelevant to the comment I was responding to today.

You are literally trying to argue with yourself over something you said.

03-lmfao
02-02-2021 10:14 PM
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SeñorTiger Online
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Post: #77
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 10:14 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 10:00 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 03:05 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:59 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:27 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  As much as fans like to give them, it's still too early for ultimatums. A few weeks ago, many here were saying "the only way we get a bid is to win the AAC tourney". That's obviously being proven as inaccurate - as we've climbed into bubble territory with a KenPom of #50.

Losing to Houston won't hurt our metrics - unless it's a complete blowout. Winning 1 would absolutely help our resume. But if we take care of the rest of the conference, and play UH close, then there's still a path.

Finishing #2 in conference and #40 in the ranking services would get us an At Large.

There is no ultimatum. I just think if we beat WSU and split with Houston and take care of the rest of the games we should win then we are in without having to hope for this, that or the other to happen to keep our path open.

Is that a fact? This is a direct quote from you...

Quote:At this point, our only road to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference tournament.

Your quote is the definition of an ultimatum, from January 4th, which is the definition of a few weeks ago. You have poor self awareness, or a bad memory, or both.

Oh boy, drudge a past from weeks ago and apply to a statement today... Yes, that was a quote from weeks ago which is completely irrelevant to the comment I was responding to today. But yes, I am the one that lacks self awareness. Praise the Lord for the woke people such as you to shed the light for those of us walking around in the darkness...

Tiger87 said...
Quote:As much as fans like to give them, it's still too early for ultimatums. A few weeks ago, many here were saying "the only way we get a bid is to win the AAC tourney". That's obviously being proven as inaccurate

He was referring you saying exactly that...
Quote:At this point, our only road to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference tournament.

So your response to his statement about fans a few weeks ago, quoting you a few weeks ago is, wait for it...
Quote:Oh boy, drudge a past from weeks ago and apply to a statement today... Yes, that was a quote from weeks ago which is completely irrelevant to the comment I was responding to today.

You are literally trying to argue with yourself over something you said.

03-lmfao

No, you just lack the ability to follow a conversation. He quoted my statement about us needing to beat WSU and split with Houston. It appeared he thought I was stating that was the only way for us to get in (creating an ultimatum) so he then referenced the comments from a few weeks ago as evidence as to why I should not be creating an ultimatum today...

My response was that my comment he quoted (beat WSU and split with Houston) was not creating an ultimatum (this is our only path) but rather a scenario that I felt would guarantee us an at large bid.

As much fun as it is having to break down my conversation like I am talking to my toddler children I think I will just leave this one alone because this is a fruitless conversation.
02-02-2021 10:28 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #78
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 06:32 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 05:40 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 05:11 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:18 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:07 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  OP UPDATED 2/2, after the UCF win:
KenPom #50, up 7. Offense #133, Defense #4. Second in AAC.
NET #62, up 6. Third in AAC.
BPI #53, up 8. Third in AAC.
Sagarin #55, up 3. Second in AAC.

I've added our conference placement, according to the ranking service. There is a theory that the AAC will get a minimum of 2 teams in the NCAA. So it's important for us to be that 2nd place team. Right now, we're neck-and-neck with SMU. And of course we split the season with them too.

Wichita St. is a factor too - need to beat them on the road

Beat Wichita State on the road by 15+ and we will move close to 10 spots in the Net. Net really rewards road games...I assume they have a multiplier for Road wins and Home Losses.

Home game blowouts help...

Road game wins above projected expectations will cause large moves for the Net.

Now KenPom is what it is...Unless you win by 50.

Scoring margin was removed from the NET this year. Now it's just efficiency and (basically) SOS. And as you said, the value of road games seems to have a multiplier.

efficiency is Scoring Margin adjusted for pace...It was duplicated before when they had both.

If you beat a team 120 to 80 in 100 possessions your offensive efficiency 1.2 and defensive is .8

If you beat a team 70 to 40 in 50 possessions your offensive efficiency is 1.4 and defensive efficiency is .8.

They are essentially looking at your offensive efficiency vs. your defensive efficiency.

So yeah...Blowouts really help your efficiency.

I hear you, though it's not quite that clean. Possessions in some algorithms - like KenPom - get adjusted for the opponent. So it's not strictly a differential between O and D efficiency. And, as you stated earlier, we are not exactly sure what the NET is doing because it's still new and they haven't shared the algorithm. We do know that they have some road game factor built-in, so there's that variable as well.

They said they removed margin as a variable this year. I get that your efficiency tends to improve in blowouts. However, if we're "efficient" and we beat Houston by 2 pts, it can mean more than beating Tulane by 20 pts - at least in KenPoms rankings - due to the opponent adjustment.

Keep covering the spread and that should be an indicator of improving efficiency.
02-02-2021 10:36 PM
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snowtiger Offline
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RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
Some highly ranked teams are already talking about skipping their conf tourneys...which is leading to the 'idea' that the conference tourney winner will not be an autobid this year.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...is-season/
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2021 02:21 AM by snowtiger.)
02-03-2021 01:40 AM
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Stammers Online
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Post: #80
RE: "Rankings" thread for the season
(02-02-2021 10:28 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 10:14 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 10:00 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 03:05 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(02-02-2021 01:59 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  There is no ultimatum. I just think if we beat WSU and split with Houston and take care of the rest of the games we should win then we are in without having to hope for this, that or the other to happen to keep our path open.

Is that a fact? This is a direct quote from you...

Quote:At this point, our only road to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference tournament.

Your quote is the definition of an ultimatum, from January 4th, which is the definition of a few weeks ago. You have poor self awareness, or a bad memory, or both.

Oh boy, drudge a past from weeks ago and apply to a statement today... Yes, that was a quote from weeks ago which is completely irrelevant to the comment I was responding to today. But yes, I am the one that lacks self awareness. Praise the Lord for the woke people such as you to shed the light for those of us walking around in the darkness...

Tiger87 said...
Quote:As much as fans like to give them, it's still too early for ultimatums. A few weeks ago, many here were saying "the only way we get a bid is to win the AAC tourney". That's obviously being proven as inaccurate

He was referring you saying exactly that...
Quote:At this point, our only road to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference tournament.

So your response to his statement about fans a few weeks ago, quoting you a few weeks ago is, wait for it...
Quote:Oh boy, drudge a past from weeks ago and apply to a statement today... Yes, that was a quote from weeks ago which is completely irrelevant to the comment I was responding to today.

You are literally trying to argue with yourself over something you said.

03-lmfao

No, you just lack the ability to follow a conversation. He quoted my statement about us needing to beat WSU and split with Houston. It appeared he thought I was stating that was the only way for us to get in (creating an ultimatum) so he then referenced the comments from a few weeks ago as evidence as to why I should not be creating an ultimatum today...

My response was that my comment he quoted (beat WSU and split with Houston) was not creating an ultimatum (this is our only path) but rather a scenario that I felt would guarantee us an at large bid.

As much fun as it is having to break down my conversation like I am talking to my toddler children I think I will just leave this one alone because this is a fruitless conversation.

It must be frustrating for the kids when you tell them something, then tell them something else...then deny that you said it in the first place. Even toddlers understand what is behind that. Apparently you don't.

You should leave it alone. You got caught red handed at mid court with your pants pulled down to your ankles.
02-03-2021 02:07 AM
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