(01-27-2021 02:39 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 12:58 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 12:37 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Looks like big swings are starting to flatten. It will be incremental moves from here on. Still got a chance to work into the 40's, which is what we need to hope for.

Using KenPom's 2019 rankings (since there wasn't a tourney last year)...
Low ranked teams getting At Large bids:
#88 St. Johns
#69 Temple
#60 Seton Hall
#57 Ariz St
#50 Old Miss
#49 Belmont
#48 Washington
#46 Minnesota
#44 Ohio St
#42 VCU

So there were a few outliers +50. But you can see your chances really go up once you get in the top 50. Once you get inside top 40, you're a 90+% lock. Don't know if we can get there, but we can get inside top 50.

As far as Kenpom is concerned...

We did what we were supposed to do against SMU last night.

KenPom likely has us predicted to win by 4 points and that is what we did. So no moves there.

Only way to move up in KenPom is to outperform what his formula says you should do...And we didn't.

There can still be large moves...

Win by 10+ tomorrow and we will see 15+ move in the Net and a 7-8ish move in Kenpom.

KenPom has SMU about 0.5 pts better than us today. We won by 4 pts. Unless he has a home court advantage of 4.5 - which he surely doesn't this COVID year - then we outperformed. Besides, he bases so much of his algorithm on efficiencies. Our O efficiency improved and our D stayed the same. Yet, after all that, overall we fell.

It's a weird one. Might be related to the short OOC season for all, still requires some built-in bias as all teams are not connected. Not sure.

Our ranking stayed the same...I doubt the numbers are the same. Offense likely improved...Defense likely fell.

We likely overperformed by a very small margin...Not enough to move.

Ken doesn't care if you win or lose...You are right it is all about the efficiencies and the strength of your opponent.

And there are ton of other moving parts with calculating the strength of you previous opponents.

Net may not be better at picking the better team but I think it is a better tool for slotting teams based on merit (WINS MATTER).

(01-27-2021 11:01 AM)oruvoice Wrote:  

(01-26-2021 12:13 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  lol If the ECU game shouldn't count, then no games should count.

My hat is way off to all our players and coaches....for keeping our games going, putting their own health on the line...and providing joyful diversion during the time of covid. Same with NBA and even NFL.

These guys are arguably as important as essential workers

No. They are in no way, not even remotely, like an essential worker. A grocery store clerk, nurse, or trash man is INFINITELY more important than someone bouncing a ball. Trying to draw any sort of comparison is pure lunacy.

Well you just identified me as an essential worker lol. Grocery vitamin supplement toilet paper store owner. I’m not feeling as important to myself as those who lift my spirits. Nobody is sweating on me. They are screaming at me because I require masks but they ain’t grabbing kicking and spitting on me like they do to the plane personnel and the subway drivers.

I think we can agree that there are levels of essential workers...

But I really don’t care if we agree at all lol

(01-27-2021 03:49 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 11:01 AM)oruvoice Wrote:  

(01-26-2021 12:13 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  lol If the ECU game shouldn't count, then no games should count.

My hat is way off to all our players and coaches....for keeping our games going, putting their own health on the line...and providing joyful diversion during the time of covid. Same with NBA and even NFL.

These guys are arguably as important as essential workers

No. They are in no way, not even remotely, like an essential worker. A grocery store clerk, nurse, or trash man is INFINITELY more important than someone bouncing a ball. Trying to draw any sort of comparison is pure lunacy.

Well you just identified me as an essential worker lol. Grocery vitamin supplement toilet paper store owner. I’m not feeling as important to myself as those who lift my spirits. Nobody is sweating on me. They are screaming at me because I require masks but they ain’t grabbing kicking and spitting on me like they do to the plane personnel and the subway drivers.

I think we can agree that there are levels of essential workers...

But I really don’t care if we agree at all lol

Grocery store employees are at a higher risk and come in contact with most of us, but for some reason Shelby County has them at the bottom of the list for vaccine priority.

(01-27-2021 03:42 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 02:39 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 12:58 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 12:37 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Looks like big swings are starting to flatten. It will be incremental moves from here on. Still got a chance to work into the 40's, which is what we need to hope for.

Using KenPom's 2019 rankings (since there wasn't a tourney last year)...
Low ranked teams getting At Large bids:
#88 St. Johns
#69 Temple
#60 Seton Hall
#57 Ariz St
#50 Old Miss
#49 Belmont
#48 Washington
#46 Minnesota
#44 Ohio St
#42 VCU

So there were a few outliers +50. But you can see your chances really go up once you get in the top 50. Once you get inside top 40, you're a 90+% lock. Don't know if we can get there, but we can get inside top 50.

As far as Kenpom is concerned...

We did what we were supposed to do against SMU last night.

KenPom likely has us predicted to win by 4 points and that is what we did. So no moves there.

Only way to move up in KenPom is to outperform what his formula says you should do...And we didn't.

There can still be large moves...

Win by 10+ tomorrow and we will see 15+ move in the Net and a 7-8ish move in Kenpom.

KenPom has SMU about 0.5 pts better than us today. We won by 4 pts. Unless he has a home court advantage of 4.5 - which he surely doesn't this COVID year - then we outperformed. Besides, he bases so much of his algorithm on efficiencies. Our O efficiency improved and our D stayed the same. Yet, after all that, overall we fell.

It's a weird one. Might be related to the short OOC season for all, still requires some built-in bias as all teams are not connected. Not sure.

Our ranking stayed the same...I doubt the numbers are the same. Offense likely improved...Defense likely fell.

We likely overperformed by a very small margin...Not enough to move.

Ken doesn't care if you win or lose...You are right it is all about the efficiencies and the strength of your opponent.

And there are ton of other moving parts with calculating the strength of you previous opponents.

Net may not be better at picking the better team but I think it is a better tool for slotting teams based on merit (WINS MATTER).

Back on track:
What would it take to move the needle ? One more win ? I only think about Ws and Ls lol.

I’m stuck in day 2 of a 3 day blizzard dripping 2-3 inches per hour . Internet comes and goes. Right now it’s here .

(01-27-2021 03:42 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 02:39 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 12:58 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 12:37 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Looks like big swings are starting to flatten. It will be incremental moves from here on. Still got a chance to work into the 40's, which is what we need to hope for.

Using KenPom's 2019 rankings (since there wasn't a tourney last year)...
Low ranked teams getting At Large bids:
#88 St. Johns
#69 Temple
#60 Seton Hall
#57 Ariz St
#50 Old Miss
#49 Belmont
#48 Washington
#46 Minnesota
#44 Ohio St
#42 VCU

So there were a few outliers +50. But you can see your chances really go up once you get in the top 50. Once you get inside top 40, you're a 90+% lock. Don't know if we can get there, but we can get inside top 50.

As far as Kenpom is concerned...

We did what we were supposed to do against SMU last night.

KenPom likely has us predicted to win by 4 points and that is what we did. So no moves there.

Only way to move up in KenPom is to outperform what his formula says you should do...And we didn't.

There can still be large moves...

Win by 10+ tomorrow and we will see 15+ move in the Net and a 7-8ish move in Kenpom.

KenPom has SMU about 0.5 pts better than us today. We won by 4 pts. Unless he has a home court advantage of 4.5 - which he surely doesn't this COVID year - then we outperformed. Besides, he bases so much of his algorithm on efficiencies. Our O efficiency improved and our D stayed the same. Yet, after all that, overall we fell.

It's a weird one. Might be related to the short OOC season for all, still requires some built-in bias as all teams are not connected. Not sure.

Our ranking stayed the same...I doubt the numbers are the same. Offense likely improved...Defense likely fell.

We likely overperformed by a very small margin...Not enough to move.

Ken doesn't care if you win or lose...You are right it is all about the efficiencies and the strength of your opponent.

And there are ton of other moving parts with calculating the strength of you previous opponents.

Net may not be better at picking the better team but I think it is a better tool for slotting teams based on merit (WINS MATTER).

Our ranking did not stay the same. Overall we fell. Offensive ranking moved up. D stayed the same. I get the numbers, but you would think it would end up a bit different than 0 + 2 = -2.

You're right that it was probably something in our SOS, like an oppenent's opponent laid an egg last night. Just pointing out the unusualness of it.

And I agree that KenPom is not the best for slotting teams. Still trying to determine if NET does a good job at this or not, as there's not a lot of history.

(01-27-2021 04:21 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 03:42 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 02:39 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 12:58 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 12:37 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Looks like big swings are starting to flatten. It will be incremental moves from here on. Still got a chance to work into the 40's, which is what we need to hope for.

Using KenPom's 2019 rankings (since there wasn't a tourney last year)...
Low ranked teams getting At Large bids:
#88 St. Johns
#69 Temple
#60 Seton Hall
#57 Ariz St
#50 Old Miss
#49 Belmont
#48 Washington
#46 Minnesota
#44 Ohio St
#42 VCU

So there were a few outliers +50. But you can see your chances really go up once you get in the top 50. Once you get inside top 40, you're a 90+% lock. Don't know if we can get there, but we can get inside top 50.

As far as Kenpom is concerned...

We did what we were supposed to do against SMU last night.

KenPom likely has us predicted to win by 4 points and that is what we did. So no moves there.

Only way to move up in KenPom is to outperform what his formula says you should do...And we didn't.

There can still be large moves...

Win by 10+ tomorrow and we will see 15+ move in the Net and a 7-8ish move in Kenpom.

KenPom has SMU about 0.5 pts better than us today. We won by 4 pts. Unless he has a home court advantage of 4.5 - which he surely doesn't this COVID year - then we outperformed. Besides, he bases so much of his algorithm on efficiencies. Our O efficiency improved and our D stayed the same. Yet, after all that, overall we fell.

It's a weird one. Might be related to the short OOC season for all, still requires some built-in bias as all teams are not connected. Not sure.

Our ranking stayed the same...I doubt the numbers are the same. Offense likely improved...Defense likely fell.

We likely overperformed by a very small margin...Not enough to move.

Ken doesn't care if you win or lose...You are right it is all about the efficiencies and the strength of your opponent.

And there are ton of other moving parts with calculating the strength of you previous opponents.

Net may not be better at picking the better team but I think it is a better tool for slotting teams based on merit (WINS MATTER).

Our ranking did not stay the same. Overall we fell. Offensive ranking moved up. D stayed the same. I get the numbers, but you would think it would end up a bit different than 0 + 2 = -2.

You're right that it was probably something in our SOS, like an oppenent's opponent laid an egg last night. Just pointing out the unusualness of it.

And I agree that KenPom is not the best for slotting teams. Still trying to determine if NET does a good job at this or not, as there's not a lot of history.

Also teams in our range may have also slightly outperformed in their games. So even though our raw numbers got marginally better theirs increased at a higher pace thus we dropped 2 spots

(01-27-2021 03:52 PM)aardWolf Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 03:49 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 11:01 AM)oruvoice Wrote:  

(01-26-2021 12:13 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  lol If the ECU game shouldn't count, then no games should count.

My hat is way off to all our players and coaches....for keeping our games going, putting their own health on the line...and providing joyful diversion during the time of covid. Same with NBA and even NFL.

These guys are arguably as important as essential workers

No. They are in no way, not even remotely, like an essential worker. A grocery store clerk, nurse, or trash man is INFINITELY more important than someone bouncing a ball. Trying to draw any sort of comparison is pure lunacy.

Well you just identified me as an essential worker lol. Grocery vitamin supplement toilet paper store owner. I’m not feeling as important to myself as those who lift my spirits. Nobody is sweating on me. They are screaming at me because I require masks but they ain’t grabbing kicking and spitting on me like they do to the plane personnel and the subway drivers.

I think we can agree that there are levels of essential workers...

But I really don’t care if we agree at all lol

Grocery store employees are at a higher risk and come in contact with most of us, but for some reason Shelby County has them at the bottom of the list for vaccine priority.

You certainly are not a rocket scientist if you are making decisions for SC government.

(01-27-2021 09:53 PM)Keeper Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 03:52 PM)aardWolf Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 03:49 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 11:01 AM)oruvoice Wrote:  

(01-26-2021 12:13 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  lol If the ECU game shouldn't count, then no games should count.

My hat is way off to all our players and coaches....for keeping our games going, putting their own health on the line...and providing joyful diversion during the time of covid. Same with NBA and even NFL.

These guys are arguably as important as essential workers

No. They are in no way, not even remotely, like an essential worker. A grocery store clerk, nurse, or trash man is INFINITELY more important than someone bouncing a ball. Trying to draw any sort of comparison is pure lunacy.

Well you just identified me as an essential worker lol. Grocery vitamin supplement toilet paper store owner. I’m not feeling as important to myself as those who lift my spirits. Nobody is sweating on me. They are screaming at me because I require masks but they ain’t grabbing kicking and spitting on me like they do to the plane personnel and the subway drivers.

I think we can agree that there are levels of essential workers...

But I really don’t care if we agree at all lol

Grocery store employees are at a higher risk and come in contact with most of us, but for some reason Shelby County has them at the bottom of the list for vaccine priority.

You certainly are not a rocket scientist if you are making decisions for SC government.

Apparently not... :-P

(01-27-2021 09:54 PM)aardWolf Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 09:53 PM)Keeper Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 03:52 PM)aardWolf Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 03:49 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  

(01-27-2021 11:01 AM)oruvoice Wrote:  No. They are in no way, not even remotely, like an essential worker. A grocery store clerk, nurse, or trash man is INFINITELY more important than someone bouncing a ball. Trying to draw any sort of comparison is pure lunacy.

Well you just identified me as an essential worker lol. Grocery vitamin supplement toilet paper store owner. I’m not feeling as important to myself as those who lift my spirits. Nobody is sweating on me. They are screaming at me because I require masks but they ain’t grabbing kicking and spitting on me like they do to the plane personnel and the subway drivers.

I think we can agree that there are levels of essential workers...

But I really don’t care if we agree at all lol

Grocery store employees are at a higher risk and come in contact with most of us, but for some reason Shelby County has them at the bottom of the list for vaccine priority.

You certainly are not a rocket scientist if you are making decisions for SC government.

Apparently not... :-P

They hired the unemployed Ringling Brothers and Barnum and Bailey clowns.

Updated the OP with the following...

UPDATED 1/29, after the SMU loss:
KenPom #57, up 2 (Offense #140, Defense #4)
NET #68, no change
BPI #61, down 2
Sagarin #58, no change

Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

We have to beat WSU and at least split with Houston.

(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

They are public, and I am too busy/lazy to look them up. I enjoy coming here to see them and read other Memphis fan's takes on them.

OP UPDATED 2/2, after the UCF win:
KenPom #50, up 7. Offense #133, Defense #4. Second in AAC.
NET #62, up 6. Third in AAC.
BPI #53, up 8. Third in AAC.
Sagarin #55, up 3. Second in AAC.

I've added our conference placement, according to the ranking service. There is a theory that the AAC will get a minimum of 2 teams in the NCAA. So it's important for us to be that 2nd place team. Right now, we're neck-and-neck with SMU. And of course we split the season with them too.

(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

Not exactly. We won't be making 15 point jumps in one day any longer. But if we win big, while improving our offensive effieciency, then we can still make 6ish spot jumps - even against a bad opponent. As we did last night. 2 games remaining vs Cincy will also be big, if we perform efficiently (assists, shooting, turnovers).

(02-02-2021 01:07 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  OP UPDATED 2/2, after the UCF win:
KenPom #50, up 7. Offense #133, Defense #4. Second in AAC.
NET #62, up 6. Third in AAC.
BPI #53, up 8. Third in AAC.
Sagarin #55, up 3. Second in AAC.

I've added our conference placement, according to the ranking service. There is a theory that the AAC will get a minimum of 2 teams in the NCAA. So it's important for us to be that 2nd place team. Right now, we're neck-and-neck with SMU. And of course we split the season with them too.

Wichita St. is a factor too - need to beat them on the road

(02-02-2021 12:56 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

We have to beat WSU and at least split with Houston.

As much as fans like to give them, it's still too early for ultimatums. A few weeks ago, many here were saying "the only way we get a bid is to win the AAC tourney". That's obviously being proven as inaccurate - as we've climbed into bubble territory with a KenPom of #50.

Losing to Houston won't hurt our metrics - unless it's a complete blowout. Winning 1 would absolutely help our resume. But if we take care of the rest of the conference, and play UH close, then there's still a path.

Finishing #2 in conference and #40 in the ranking services would get us an At Large.

(02-02-2021 01:27 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 12:56 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 12:25 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 11:44 AM)ballhog Wrote:  Interested to see if anything changed after a big point differential against a mediocre team.

All of those rankings numbers are public.

Memphis went from #66 to #62 on net. Only big needle movers left on the schedule are the two Houston games and @Wichita St.

For the rest, win will basically move you around a couple of spots at best.

We have to beat WSU and at least split with Houston.

As much as fans like to give them, it's still too early for ultimatums. A few weeks ago, many here were saying "the only way we get a bid is to win the AAC tourney". That's obviously being proven as inaccurate - as we've climbed into bubble territory with a KenPom of #50.

Losing to Houston won't hurt our metrics - unless it's a complete blowout. Winning 1 would absolutely help our resume. But if we take care of the rest of the conference, and play UH close, then there's still a path.

Finishing #2 in conference and #40 in the ranking services would get us an At Large.

There is no ultimatum. I just think if we beat WSU and split with Houston and take care of the rest of the games we should win then we are in without having to hope for this, that or the other to happen to keep our path open.

I do think COVID-adjusted committee selections will be kind to the AAC. I think the smaller conferences will be royally screwed more than ususal.