jedclampett
All American
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RE: AAC engaging in talks with Boise and SDSU
(01-21-2021 02:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (01-21-2021 05:02 AM)jedclampett Wrote: (01-20-2021 09:51 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (The AAC has been)...a multi-bid league every year...
True, but the Atlantic 10 has also been a multi-bid league, and they've had more NCAA bids (3.33) than the AAC has had between 2014 & 2019:
.............AAC........A-10
2014........4*............6 *Including UConn & Louisville
2015........2..............3
2016........4*............3 *Including UConn
2017........2..............3
2018........3..............3
2019........4..............2
(2020)......(2 or 3)..........(2 or 3)(predicted range; tournament cancelled)
Total......19*..........20 *Including UConn (& Louisville in 2014)
In 2020, only two AAC teams had 23 wins at the end of the season and were predicted to received NCAA bids (Houston; projected #7 seed; WSU; #11 seed). Three A-10 teams had 23+ wins (Dayton (29 wins; projected #1 seed), Richmond (24 wins; #11 seed); & St. Louis (23 wins)), and three WCC teams had 24+ wins (Gonzaga (31 wins; projected #1 seed); BYU (24 wins; #5 seed); St. Mary's (26 wins; #8 seed)).
http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2020.html
The situation is much the same 8 weeks into the 2020-21 season. Only 1 AAC team (Houston (projected #2 seed)) is projected to make the NCAA with a seed of #12 or higher.^ Two A-10 teams (St. Louis (projected #8 seed) & Richmond (#12 seed)) and two WCC teams (Gonzaga (#1 seed); BYU (#9 seed)) are projected to receive NCAA bids with #12 seeds or higher.
^http://bracketmatrix.com/
Quote:...the AAC ... has the potential to field a very high quality basketball league (by)... getting Memphis, Temple, Wichita, and Cinci back into top form...If we can get the schools that were supposed to be our heavy hitters in basketball on tract---this can look a lot like a Big East level league...
We, as AAC fans, would really like to believe that this is true. However, the current data are not encouraging. According to the 2019-20 and 2020-21 rankings, the upper echelon teams in the American have gotten weaker as a group, not stronger, since the 2018-19 season.
Memphis has recruited well, but has been under-performing expectations consistently under Coach Hardaway, with little evidence of improvement. Cincinnati has struggled under their new/current Head Coach. Although Wichita State has surpassed expectations under their new Head Coach, their program has been hit hard by the departure of Coach Marshall, and their future prospects will depend on the recruiting, player development, and game coaching abilities of their next Head Coach.
SMU and Tulsa seem to be upwardly-mobile programs, but it remains to be seen whether they will be able to achieve post-season success. UCF and USF have had limited success, and it's too soon to know
whether or not Temple will be able to make its way back into the NCAA or NIT tournament within the next 2 or 3 years.
Not sure what your point is here. The difference in bids between the AAC and A-10 is negligible (especially considering the A-10 has 14 members vs 11-12 AAC members). My view is exactly what I said. What we see is the A-10 humming along like a finely tuned machine with its top programs producing as expected. The AAC is performing similarly, despite its historically top programs performing well below average. That is probably one reason the current top 5 NET ratings appears to favor the A-10 to a slight degree. Its also worth noting the bottom of the A-10 is far far worse than the bottom of the AAC.
The AAC will be a basketball dreadnought if the programs expected to be the bell cows of the conference finally get back on track. Taking a top A-10 program to add to the thickening upper belt of AAC teams seems like a perfectly reasonable way to replace a departed under performing UConn program.
Current A-10 top 5 teams in Net rating
16, 42, 50, 57, 70.
Current AAC top 5 teams in Net rating
5, 56, 59, 75, 79
Worst 3 A-10 teams
249, 263, 331
Worst 3 AAC teams
122, 129, 189
It's definitely true that it's only the upper echelon of the A10 that is comparable with that of the AAC. Their lower echelon is certainly weaker, and that's why the A10 is ranked #9, while AAC is #7.
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The main reason I put up the numbers for the Atlantic 10 was to make it clear that we're not the only non-P5 "multi-bid" conference, and that the AAC hasn't led the way with the most NCAA bids.
If averaging ~3 NCAA bids per year, alone, were enough to make the AAC competitive with the lowest ranked P5 conferences, then the A-10 would be in a stronger position to attain power-level status than is the AAC.
More importantly, the way I grasp the situation, the fact that the AAC has trailed behind the A-10 in this category the way it has is fairly compelling evidence that the AAC isn't nearly strong enough to be considered eligible for power conference status, or (the same trend holds up for the next decade) for a significant pay raise from ESPN the next time the broadcasting agreement is negotiated.
It is true, as you've noted, that the conference is in the midst of an "off-year" for the second year in a row, and that things like this tend to be cyclical. Chances are that, unless the level of parity remains as high as it is this season, things will improve somewhat within 2-3 years.
On the other hand, our past record suggests that when it does improve, the conference won't be likely to send more than 3 or 4 teams to the NCAA in its best years. Having failed to get 5 NCAA bids per season over the past 6 seasons in a row (actually 7, since the AAC would have only gotten 2 or 3 bids in 2020), and having lost one of our better BB programs, the mathematics suggest that the AAC is unlikely to get more than 4 NCAA bids more than once every ten years (max.) as it is currently comprised.
This, in turn, suggests that, in order to get more NCAA bids, the American's best bet may be to add at least one quality BB team to replace UConn. That, alone, may bring the average number of bids per seasons back up to the 3-4 range.
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