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Thamel: Seismic change is coming
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Hokie4Skins Offline
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Thamel: Seismic change is coming
Here's some speculation on the expansion front:

https://sports.yahoo.com/after-college-f...58001.html

The life cycles of realignment have long been attached to the impending expiration of television contracts. As conferences approach new deals, history has shown that adding universities translates to additional inventory and dollars. Will that still be the case in an age where media is increasingly more fragmented?

The Big Ten’s TV deal is set to expire after the 2022-23 season, the Pac-12’s after the 2023-24 season and the Big 12’s after the 2024-25 season. That means that the Big Ten begins dabbling in the television market as soon as this calendar year. If any of those leagues had interest in expanding, the exploration would have either already begun or will start soon.

Perhaps more relevant to the prospect of a significant shakeup is the ACC’s untenable television deal that new commissioner Jim Phillips inherits. The ACC is locked up through 2035-36, and the fixed income of that contract essentially puts the league in cement financial shoes as its peers are poised to distance themselves from the ACC financially.

Can a creative and dynamic solution arise — like the addition of new big-brand partners — to prompt a new deal? It’s tricky, as ESPN didn’t become a worldwide conglomerate by ripping up deals that are tilted significantly in its favor.

Also relevant is that the AAC has already engaged with Boise State and San Diego State about potentially joining. It’d be naïve to not brace for another round of realignment at both the Power Five and Group of Five level.

“It’s hard to imagine that everything is static,” said Chris Bevilacqua, the co-founder of the media consulting group BHV, which has consulted for numerous leagues in media rights deals over the year. “It seems like there will be change, it’s hard to know when it will be and what will happen.”
01-13-2021 03:48 PM
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Post: #2
RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
More from the article and this feeds into the first point...

Quote:You can cut out the old tropes about “the best interest of student-athletes” and let money guide the way for changes. The conference-only schedules in the SEC, Pac-12 and Big Ten opened eyes to the viability and potential financial motives for playing more conference games.

While the SEC and ACC have resisted this by playing only eight, there’s a sense that the pandemic could continue the pattern of fans avoiding the stadium. The best way to get them there is a schedule filled with familiar league opponents, not directional sacrificial lambs or alphabet-soup schools unfamiliar to the ticket buyer. Television would also be amendable to this notion, including league networks.

“Playing more conferences games is suddenly a viable option,” said a Power Five AD. “Playing more Power Five games is going to be the goal of every Power Five league in the country. We need to play more Power Five games [to keep the] fans.”

With expected dips in attendance and donations due to the financial crunch, look for television-related changes to make up the revenue.

“I think the demand for television is really important at this point if you’re not going to create the dollars with people showing up as much,” said the athletic director. “You’re going to have to create the dollars with television.”

Expansion adds contract value, but it will also add inventory and put more games under one roof.

Playing 10 conference games would be wonderful and if you want to expand reach while simultaneously keeping the schedule fresh then add more schools. In other words, go beyond 16...
01-13-2021 04:17 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
I’d start at the Big 12 with their soon to expire GOR and media deal, regardless of what other conferences do or make. We simply don’t know whether some schools there are ready to move on or stay committed. And, who knows now with Covid whether proximity has helped any there.

And then there’s the PAC. And I have to believe that the right expansion, whatever that is, causes some resets and windows to reopen for restructuring.

Whether the B1G, SEC, or ACC get involved and when...nah. All eyes on those two low hanging fruits.
01-13-2021 04:19 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
Would it make sense for the PAC and XII to try to pool their TV rights together and take advantage of the combined markets?

A new deal which allows everyone to keep their 3rd tier rights?
01-13-2021 04:43 PM
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domer1978 Offline
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
So many questions, but the answers are very complicated and multifaceted. The P-5 could not even agree on this season getting off the ground. The ACC, Big 12 and SEC pulled the same direction but the Big and the Pac went the other way.

One thing is for sure, the ACC needs a better TV deal.
01-13-2021 04:51 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
(01-13-2021 04:43 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Would it make sense for the PAC and XII to try to pool their TV rights together and take advantage of the combined markets?

A new deal which allows everyone to keep their 3rd tier rights?

It would make sense for them to attempt some sort of partial merger agreement. The big question would be which conference ends up being the senior partner in the deal.

There’s also the SEC and Big Ten to think about. Both will strongly push expansion plans that would give them one or both of the Big 12 prizes.
01-13-2021 04:55 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
(01-13-2021 04:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(01-13-2021 04:43 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Would it make sense for the PAC and XII to try to pool their TV rights together and take advantage of the combined markets?

A new deal which allows everyone to keep their 3rd tier rights?

It would make sense for them to attempt some sort of partial merger agreement. The big question would be which conference ends up being the senior partner in the deal.

There’s also the SEC and Big Ten to think about. Both will strongly push expansion plans that would give them one or both of the Big 12 prizes.

That is one theory. The theory that the SEC and B1G will be worth so much more when the contracts open up they'll have their pick of any expansion team.

If the TV dollars are headed down will it be the case? I don't see ESPN upping the payout another 5 fold for the P5 TV contracts next time around. They might be open to more for an expanded playoff and that is about it.
01-13-2021 05:04 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
Whatever the SEC/Big 10 try to do, you can bet that they will first calculate how the other conferences are likely to respond.

Right now the SEC & Big 10 are on top. The very last thing they want to do is take the first step that will lead to a system with 3 strong conferences at the top.

They also don't want to empower the other top conference & let them get ahead. For example, the Big 10 would benefit a lot from adding UNC & UVA. But they won't do it if they think that it will lead to the SEC getting Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma.
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2021 05:18 PM by Captain Bearcat.)
01-13-2021 05:18 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
(01-13-2021 04:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(01-13-2021 04:43 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Would it make sense for the PAC and XII to try to pool their TV rights together and take advantage of the combined markets?

A new deal which allows everyone to keep their 3rd tier rights?

It would make sense for them to attempt some sort of partial merger agreement. The big question would be which conference ends up being the senior partner in the deal.

There’s also the SEC and Big Ten to think about. Both will strongly push expansion plans that would give them one or both of the Big 12 prizes.


The issue with that is that the fans will not travel. The key word here is to expand in your footprints because of the pandemic. PAC 12's only recourse is the MWC and Big Sky. With the merger of PAC 12 and Big 12? Half of the conference would be shut down not playing.
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2021 05:27 PM by DavidSt.)
01-13-2021 05:19 PM
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Sicembear11 Online
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
Anything can happen in realignment. But my money, and. I would guess house money too, is on an expanded playoff. Adds more inventory for the networks, addresses access concerns for the conferences, increases parity for the sport.

I would be surprised if the B1G or SEC expanded. I don’t see them being able to grab the inventory pieces they desire out of the ACC. The Big 12 could be an option, but I think Texas and OU are fine with the status quo so long as they still make their money and have access to the CFP. Texas could be a wildcard with the LHN winding up and losing that revenue stream. A Pac-12 merger might have some benefits for both parties, but there is a real question about differing cultures athletically and academically, commitment to high level competition, increased travel expenses, lack of fan interest in the tier 2 matchups, and not least of all who’s conference takes over? The PAC-12 leadership has been a disaster the past decade and the Big 12 has more or less stabilized.

But money talks...
01-13-2021 05:26 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
(01-13-2021 05:26 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  Anything can happen in realignment. But my money, and. I would guess house money too, is on an expanded playoff. Adds more inventory for the networks, addresses access concerns for the conferences, increases parity for the sport.

I would be surprised if the B1G or SEC expanded. I don’t see them being able to grab the inventory pieces they desire out of the ACC. The Big 12 could be an option, but I think Texas and OU are fine with the status quo so long as they still make their money and have access to the CFP. Texas could be a wildcard with the LHN winding up and losing that revenue stream. A Pac-12 merger might have some benefits for both parties, but there is a real question about differing cultures athletically and academically, commitment to high level competition, increased travel expenses, lack of fan interest in the tier 2 matchups, and not least of all who’s conference takes over? The PAC-12 leadership has been a disaster the past decade and the Big 12 has more or less stabilized.

But money talks...

LHN isn't winding up anywhere.. Still here for another 10 years
01-13-2021 06:36 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
The SEC and Big Ten are making so much media money that they'd be crazy to add any new members unless they get Texas and/or Notre Dame. They are not going to dilute their own income just to make expansion-jonesing internet users happy. There's absolutely no reason for them to help anyone else to bring revenue up to an SEC or Big Ten level.
01-13-2021 09:04 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
I’ve said it many times on this board before: at some point a football first ACC school will start getting anxious on the long term contract the conference signed. I can see an scenario where Clemson and Florida State see their in-state SEC rivals make over $25-30 million more than them and start challenging the GOR. It’s one thing to be behind Alabama and Ohio State monetarily if you’re Clemson and Florida State and another thing is to behind Missouri and Minnesota.
01-13-2021 09:17 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
ACC has a couple of outs.
1) disband and send members to Big 10 and SEC. You may have a few remnants go to Big 12 if Big 10 and SEC both go to 20. If they go to 2 leagues each under the Big 10 and SEC brand, then all the ACC moves to those 2 conferences.

2) convince Notre Dame to join and do an alliance with the Big 12 moving Louisville to Big 12 to keep ACC at 14. Bring the Big 12 under Mickey's full umbrella.
01-13-2021 10:11 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
Then there is this today from Senator Chris Murphy--

Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, ripped the NCAA's decision to delay a vote on whether to allow college athletes to benefit from publicity rights, saying he was working on legislation to grant college athletes the right to monetize their brand.

"Delaying the Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) vote is yet another signal that the NCAA hopes the federal government will save it from having to fairly compensate their athletes. That's not going to happen," Murphy wrote in a Wednesday statement. "The college sports industry has a fundamental civil rights issue at the core of its business model, and it’s clear the NCAA doesn’t want to do anything serious to address the inequities that players face."


"I’m working on legislation to fix this issue by granting athletes the broad ability to make money off of their likeness, and collectively bargain for additional reforms to the system, and am hopeful it will move in this new Congress," Murphy wrote.


Yeah---you read that right---"collectively bargain"---that's a union term, right?

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/...mpensation
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2021 10:32 PM by Attackcoog.)
01-13-2021 10:31 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
Ill support the AAC push for P6 if they add Boise, BYU and AF/SD St.

Yall will deserve a playoff spot when you add some more FB powers.
01-13-2021 11:00 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
The NCAA didn't get their crap together and now have Congress' attention. Bad decisions by the NCAA and a lack of internal change will lead to legislation they may not like
01-13-2021 11:01 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
(01-13-2021 10:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  ACC has a couple of outs.
1) disband and send members to Big 10 and SEC. You may have a few remnants go to Big 12 if Big 10 and SEC both go to 20. If they go to 2 leagues each under the Big 10 and SEC brand, then all the ACC moves to those 2 conferences.

Too much inventory (schools) to be absorbed by two conferences. Very difficult to see either conference showing sustained interest in Boston College, Wake Forest, or a post-Krzyzewski Duke. In addition, if the SEC were to pick up Clemson and FSU, stay at 16--Miami or NC State isn't even needed at that point.
01-13-2021 11:04 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
(01-13-2021 11:00 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  Ill support the AAC push for P6 if they add Boise, BYU and AF/SD St.

Yall will deserve a playoff spot when you add some more FB powers.

Still don’t quite think it’ll be considered a P6. Just the best G5 by MILESSSSSSSS
01-13-2021 11:06 PM
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RE: Thamel: Seismic change is coming
(01-13-2021 11:06 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(01-13-2021 11:00 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  Ill support the AAC push for P6 if they add Boise, BYU and AF/SD St.

Yall will deserve a playoff spot when you add some more FB powers.

Still don’t quite think it’ll be considered a P6. Just the best G5 by MILESSSSSSSS

Yes, no way the SEC and B1G would agree to share CFP money and a NY6 slot equally with a conference of that makeup.
01-13-2021 11:08 PM
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