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Could football independence come back into fashion?
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XLance Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Could football independence come back into fashion?
(01-11-2021 01:56 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The realignment moves from 1989-1991 brought about the end of the Era of the Big Time Independents.

In our current climate, 3 of the 5 major conferences have some major disparity between the top value programs and the rest. For those high dollar programs to keep up financially with the SEC they are going to have to come up with something creative. It’s not just as easy as joining up with the SEC. Geography can be a factor. Some of these programs—Texas, Oklahoma, USC also have a history of calling all the shots and being the ones in control of their leagues.

Would say, ESPN, be interested in making deals with these schools directly as independents as opposed to negotiating with a whole conference? Is there a remote possibility that we end up with a handful of elite independents again with a loose scheduling alliance facilitated by the Mouse?

Not a chance.
01-11-2021 08:38 PM
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Realignment Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Could football independence come back into fashion?
(01-11-2021 02:14 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If $300M was too much for CBS for 1 SEC game a week, maybe $60M apiece for T1-T3 rights from a few big players would be better and they’d have enough content to air 2-3 games on OTA CBS each week.

CBS will most likely make a play for the Big 12 or Pac-12 since it'll be cheaper to sign. Who knows, maybe they actually try to get the Big Ten but I doubt FOX would be all that happen if they couldn't show Big Ten games on FOX OTA. The Pac-12 would probably kill to get 1 or 2 games a week on CBS OTA since it would allow for good time windows instead of the windows they've been put in by ESPN & FOX.
01-11-2021 09:15 PM
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schmolik Online
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Post: #23
RE: Could football independence come back into fashion?
(01-11-2021 04:28 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(01-11-2021 04:11 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-11-2021 04:04 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(01-11-2021 02:50 PM)solohawks Wrote:  The 2 most unstable conferences seem to be the Big 12 (lack of brand outside of OU and TU) and the PAC 12 (due to their terrible Pac 12 network situation).

A new Billion Dollar Amazon conference would be interesting
Washington
Oregon
USC
UCLA
Arizona
Colorado
Oklahoma
Texas

I think rather than a new conference being formed the BIG XII invites USC, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA to be the BIG XIV. They may choose to invite Colorado back instead of UCLA, I don't know. The remaining PAC-12 teams would either become the PAC-8 or have to find a way to expand. I know Boise St and BYU are not the teams to replace the lost ones though.

I also wonder if Baylor, TCU, OU, or OSU are still on the SEC's minds for expansion. Not all 4 coming, just 2 of course.

If Im Amazon, there is just a lot of unnecessary inventory in an expanded Big 12?

Starting from scratch is something a P5 conference can do, if they time it right with the new CFP contract.

I guess if I'm creating a $1,000,000,000 conference I'd hand select my conference exactly how I wanted it too haha. What about bowl tie ins, NCCAT bids for oly sports?

Alabama
Clemson
Florida
Georgia
Michigan
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Penn State
Texas
01-12-2021 07:34 AM
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schmolik Online
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Post: #24
RE: Could football independence come back into fashion?
(01-11-2021 03:56 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(01-11-2021 02:55 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Alabama wouldn't leave the SEC. Life is good and we make plenty of money.

But if you're talking about a program that doesn't have a conference home that exudes stability and money then independence could make sense. Texas could pull it off and USC probably could too.

I agree they wouldn't. I was just saying that if that they would be as profitable if not more even as an independent.

If we assume Alabama leaves the SEC on its own and the rest of the SEC remains intact and backfills with a 14th member (choose anyone you want), both Alabama and the SEC would be hurt depending on how many games Alabama plays vs. the rest of the SEC. If I'm the SEC and got wind of the fact that Alabama was leaving, I could tell my schools to threaten to not play them. It would be highly doubtful that Auburn would ever agree to boycott Alabama (Jrsec you can tell me if this is true or false) if Alabama left the SEC but who thought Texas and Texas A&M would stop playing 10 years ago? But Georgia and Florida hardly play Alabama now, they probably would never play them. LSU and Texas A&M are the big players, if either or both said they won't play Alabama then Alabama would be hurt. Now if Texas is an independent and Texas and Alabama agreed to play annually then Alabama won't miss LSU/A&M. But then that's an additional road game every other year. If Alabama can go independent and still play the popular SEC teams every year without playing the SEC deadweights, sure they'll do it. But why would the other popular SEC teams let Alabama do it? They won't. And there's no way the SEC will let Alabama remain a "partial" like the ACC lets Notre Dame. There's also the issue of men's basketball. Notre Dame has a conference for men's basketball (the best conference for it). Do you think the SEC would let Alabama play in the SEC for men's basketball and other sports but not football? Get real! I'm sure the Sun Belt, Conference USA, or AAC will gladly give Alabama a Notre Dame like deal for 5 games a year (maybe even fewer). OK Alabama fans, how do you feel about playing men's basketball in any of these conferences? Replace Alabama with Ohio State, the SEC with the Big Ten, and the southern conference with the MAC and you can say the same thing.

Now Texas going independent makes more sense, especially if Oklahoma leaves the Big 12 for another conference and the Big 12 can either have Texas as a partial member or not at all. The SEC without Alabama would no doubt be weaker than with Alabama but they'd at least be strong enough to stand up to them (or at least the stronger members could).

What I can certainly see is a "split" like when the WAC and the old Big East split. Now those conferences weren't as valuable as the SEC and Big Ten are now. For a group of SEC or Big Ten members to break away they would have to make more members apart from the rest of the conference than with them. Alabama would be stupid to leave the SEC on their own but what if they were to go to Auburn, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas A&M and break away from the SEC to form their own conference and invite Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma, and Texas? Instead of OU and UT joining a 16 team SEC where they have to share the payout 16 ways they would share this payout (which would arguably be close to as valuable as the current SEC) 10 ways and they'd get to play all the top draws every season rather than (assuming the SEC keeps divisions) almost never playing SEC East teams. Or how about Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee with Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, and Louisville forming a true "Southeastern" Conference? Maybe that would be more valuable than the SEC now. They'd own Florida and expand to Carolina and Virginia. With the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 having so much overlap, you can virtually pick and choose your ideal conference of the top teams and pitch it to them and offer them megabucks without drastically increasing their travel budgets. I mentioned a super conference in my last post. As long as you keep the West Coast schools separate, even that isn't too much. Penn State and Ohio State currently travel to Nebraska now, Oklahoma and Texas aren't that further away. In men's and women's basketball, I'd set up travel pairs. In the current Big Ten, you can have a football week where Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State all play duds. This season the first SEC on CBS game featured Mississippi State. You put together a "super conference" you'll always get a top game every week. Do I see this happening and replacing the SEC and/or Big Ten? No. But it's more likely than Alabama and/or Ohio State becoming independents.
01-12-2021 08:23 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #25
RE: Could football independence come back into fashion?
SEC teams and Big Ten teams are not the kinds of schools in talking about exploring independence.

The ones that would be potentially Indy candidates would be the the most valuable brands of the ACC, Big 12, and PAC 12 as those are the conferences lagging in revenue due to lack of depth.

Alabama and Ohio St are not going independent.
01-12-2021 08:56 AM
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Could football independence come back into fashion?
I agree Alabama will not be an independent, nor do I want them to or think they need to. I just was saying I think they could be as profitable, but you made a good argument of why they might not.

I think what’s really going to happen is that Texas and Oklahoma leave the BXII. SEC or B1G media rights go WAY up with adding them, or OU with OSU to balance it at 16. SEC and B1G are obviously the two best conferences and most well constructed. If those 3 leave I think the Big XII panics. KU and ISU probably could go B1G. SEC could move Bama/AU to East and Mizzou to West with OU and OSU. Again, they are the only 2 conferences I think who could sustain the expansion in football to 16. ACC should not nor the PAC-12. The PAC might could add 2 but Texas probably goes independent so who would they want?
01-12-2021 09:56 AM
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