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NY8 model
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ken d Online
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NY8 model
I am not in favor of an 8 team playoff. I'm not thrilled about a 4 team playoff either, but it's much better than the 2 team BCS model that preceded it. Nevertheless, I recognize that I'm in the minority on this issue, and I strongly expect that FBS will eventually follow the model of other sports and expand their playoffs for the crassest of motives - cash. So here's how I would like to see that go down.

I also don't much care for autobids, so my model doesn't have any. And I believe that any playoff model should provide a path, no matter how slippery, for every FBS team to play its way in and/or to earn access to a New Years Bowl. To accomplish this, I propose a 6-2 playoff model as follows.

First, I would have all independents (most of whom are now excluded from the NY6) be treated as if they were a conference for this purpose only, and deem their "champion" to be the one ranked highest in the AP poll.

Then, from the pool of 11 champions, the six highest ranked teams would qualify for the 8 team playoff. The 2 remaining playoff spots would go to the highest ranked non-champions. The 4 first round playoff games would be played one week prior to New Years day at sites selected by bid.

The 2 second round playoff games would be played on or about New Year's day at either Atlanta (Peach Bowl site) or Dallas (Cotton Bowl site) plus two other sites TBD by bid. The Rose, Sugar, Orange and Fiesta Bowls would also be played on or about New Years day, and would include the 8 highest ranked teams that did not qualify for the playoff. These bowls would decide in advance the method for assigning the participating teams to each bowl.

The CFP championship game would be scheduled as it now is, at a site to be selected by bid.

Each of the 16 teams invited to the NY8 would receive from the payout pool a fixed amount (say $2 million) for each game they play to cover the cost of travel for the team, families of the players and coaches, and anyone else the school wants to include.

Some of the positive features of this proposal are that more than one G6 champion could qualify for the playoff, and a highly ranked G6 team that didn't win its conference could still qualify for the NY8. P5 conferences having a down year would not be guaranteed a spot in either the playoff or the NY8 unless they produce a highly ranked team. Notre Dame would no longer be singled out for special treatment that wouldn't be available to any other school that doesn't want be be in a conference for football (I'm looking at you, Texas).

That's my proposal. Have fun tearing it apart (it's why we're all here).

Edited to show there would be two additional sites selected by bids to bring the NY6 to the NY8. I forgot to mention that in my original post.
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2021 02:44 PM by ken d.)
01-10-2021 09:56 AM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #2
RE: NY8 model
That is better than what we have currently. This system has cemented about 3-4 schools at the top. Parity and new blood is good for the sport. I don't want to see the same actors every year in the playoffs.

My quick idea: Chop one game off the regular season and have a 16 team playoff. It should work fine. (I've changed my mind on this to be more inclusive)

Most of the schools with winning records (not invited to the playoffs) should be able to play a bowl game in Dec/early Jan. This assumes TV money is there. Maybe pool the money of all teams with an incentive kicker to sell tickets to their fans. The bowl system would have to reorganize...but after the Top 8-10 bowl games most of these are only there due to ESPN. Essentially this could be somewhat like the NIT but with better teams.
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2021 11:43 AM by TexanMark.)
01-10-2021 11:42 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #3
RE: NY8 model
Small notes:

“one week before New Years Day” is Christmas Day. Most folks positing a December round put it on Army-Navy weekend and include home games for the top 4 teams (you could modify and give home games to the top 4 “champions”).

Why in the world would two second tier bowls be permanent semifinal spots while the Rose, Sugar, et al are relegated to consolation status?

Not a bad way to do 6 champs. Don’t know if it’s politically feasible, but naturally it’s fairer than “auto bids”.

I only count 6 bowls. New Years 8?

And, naturally, I’ll put a plug in for those outside CCGs to be paired in a WCG that weekend with the winner added to the “pool of 11 champions.” This’d likely replace the Indy-G6 bid.
01-10-2021 01:03 PM
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Post: #4
RE: NY8 model
They'll go with a 8-team playoff. It'll be the P5 Champions (Auto-Bids), Top G5 Champion (Auto-Bid) and 2 At-Large bids. They want the regular season to "mean something" still and they still want the controversy each season when other teams get left out, so the talking head shows can give their hot takes about it. Also, it gives a chance to say a 9-3 Northwestern team upsetting an 11-1 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship.
01-10-2021 01:16 PM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #5
RE: NY8 model
Your model is basically a P5 + Notre Dame in the playoffs model. Horrible idea to give Notre Dame such an easy path.
01-10-2021 01:26 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #6
RE: NY8 model
So your plan isn’t really all that different than a 5-1-2, you’re just potentially allowing a 2nd G5 champ to displace a bad P5 champ?
01-10-2021 01:58 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #7
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 01:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  Your model is basically a P5 + Notre Dame in the playoffs model. Horrible idea to give Notre Dame such an easy path.

Nah, Notre Dame and all independents are competing against the G5 champs for at least 1 spot. This may privilege independents over G5 teams, however. If the anticipation is for a few major teams beyond Notre Dame to become independent (Texas? USC?), then it may be fair.
01-10-2021 02:33 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #8
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 01:58 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So your plan isn’t really all that different than a 5-1-2, you’re just potentially allowing a 2nd G5 champ to displace a bad P5 champ?

Or an independent for a bad G5 or P5 champ.
01-10-2021 02:34 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #9
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 01:03 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Small notes:

“one week before New Years Day” is Christmas Day. Most folks positing a December round put it on Army-Navy weekend and include home games for the top 4 teams (you could modify and give home games to the top 4 “champions”).

My intent would be to play these "on or about" a week before New Years, depending on what day of the week Christmas falls (I wouldn't play on Christmas).

Why in the world would two second tier bowls be permanent semifinal spots while the Rose, Sugar, et al are relegated to consolation status?

I don't consider the original NY4 bowls (after the Cotton dropped out) to have "consolation status". Rather this allows them to select their teams based on conference contracts (like PAC vs B1G in the Rose Bowl) as they have traditionally done.

Not a bad way to do 6 champs. Don’t know if it’s politically feasible, but naturally it’s fairer than “auto bids”.

I only count 6 bowls. New Years 8?

See my edit - thanks for pointing out my omission.

And, naturally, I’ll put a plug in for those outside CCGs to be paired in a WCG that weekend with the winner added to the “pool of 11 champions.” This’d likely replace the Indy-G6 bid.
01-10-2021 02:51 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #10
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 01:58 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So your plan isn’t really all that different than a 5-1-2, you’re just potentially allowing a 2nd G5 champ to displace a bad P5 champ?

I'd say that's a big difference. It means that nobody has an autobid regardless of their record.
01-10-2021 02:53 PM
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Metropolis777 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: NY8 model
No matter what the committee has to be ended or blended in with a full BCS formula. Yes the committee and the simulated BCS have picked the same top since 2014. But the discrepancy in rankings after that is big and exceptionally huge for G5 teams. The committee has consistently ranked G5 teams 3-4 spots lower than the BCS would have or did.
01-10-2021 02:57 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #12
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 02:33 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 01:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  Your model is basically a P5 + Notre Dame in the playoffs model. Horrible idea to give Notre Dame such an easy path.

Nah, Notre Dame and all independents are competing against the G5 champs for at least 1 spot. This may privilege independents over G5 teams, however. If the anticipation is for a few major teams beyond Notre Dame to become independent (Texas? USC?), then it may be fair.

Only once in the CFP era would Notre Dame have gotten into the playoff without being ranked in the Top 8 teams **. Four G5 teams would have gotten into the playoff in the first six years of the CFP, and another two would have made the NY8. Without resorting to affirmative action on behalf of the G5, that's the best I can do.

** all based not on CFP rankings, but on the final AP ranking before the bowl games. I would do away with the selection committee as unnecessary, and in no way superior or unbiased compared with the AP Poll.
01-10-2021 03:01 PM
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Post: #13
RE: NY8 model
At this point in the 8 team playoff discussion it would be more interesting to discuss actual quotes on it from commissioners, TV executives, coaches ect. then to speculate on the slight tweaks to the format.

CFP Executive Director Bill Hancock's comments on the PAC commissioner proposal to move to 8.

Quote:"They decided that doing that now would be such a significant change, and come with so many challenges, especially given the timing with the season already underway, that they concluded that the best outcome would be to make no changes in the format," Hancock told ESPN. "They will continue to discuss the future, which is just good, responsible business practice, although I must say that dealing with COVID has become everyone's focus now."

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ms-shelved

Quote:"Whether it's six or eight, at some point in time it's going to happen," Stanford coach David Shaw told reporters Wednesday. "We all know it; we all believe it. We're just going to do it very, very slowly and methodically, but it's the only thing that makes sense.

"The only thing that should matter is: Did you fight really, really hard your entire season to win your conference? If you did, you should get a ticket to the dance. Now, outside of those five, now who deserves it? You have to look at independents, you have to look at No. 2s in some of those conferences, look at the roads they traveled. That's the only thing that truly makes sense, and I believe eventually we will get there, whether it's six or eight teams, I think it'll eventually happen."

Stanford coach says there has some room for No. 2's and independents in the new system. Sounds like he believes it champs should be invited based on schedule (CFP ranking?)

These ideas lend themselves to a Top 6 or Top 5 ranked conference champs in as oppose to autobids. This year that would mean Cincinnati as #5 and Coastal in at #6. The commentary here is close to the ken_d proposal.

Since its not guaranteed autobids to the playoff it does serve the function of keeping things competitive. The PAC will have to step it up if they want their champion as part of the title picture in the future.
01-10-2021 03:55 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #14
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 09:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  I am not in favor of an 8 team playoff. I'm not thrilled about a 4 team playoff either, but it's much better than the 2 team BCS model that preceded it. Nevertheless, I recognize that I'm in the minority on this issue, and I strongly expect that FBS will eventually follow the model of other sports and expand their playoffs for the crassest of motives - cash. So here's how I would like to see that go down.

I like it better than 5/1/2, less than straight-8.
01-10-2021 04:23 PM
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Post: #15
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 09:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  I am not in favor of an 8 team playoff. I'm not thrilled about a 4 team playoff either, but it's much better than the 2 team BCS model that preceded it. Nevertheless, I recognize that I'm in the minority on this issue, and I strongly expect that FBS will eventually follow the model of other sports and expand their playoffs for the crassest of motives - cash. So here's how I would like to see that go down.

I like it better than 5/1/2, less than straight-8.

One thing it definitely does is raises the stakes of conference championship games.
01-10-2021 04:35 PM
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Post: #16
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 04:35 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 09:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  I am not in favor of an 8 team playoff. I'm not thrilled about a 4 team playoff either, but it's much better than the 2 team BCS model that preceded it. Nevertheless, I recognize that I'm in the minority on this issue, and I strongly expect that FBS will eventually follow the model of other sports and expand their playoffs for the crassest of motives - cash. So here's how I would like to see that go down.

I like it better than 5/1/2, less than straight-8.

One thing it definitely does is raises the stakes of conference championship games.

I'm not sure about that. Most years, a majority of P5 conference title games have big implications for playoff berths. Usually there is one that doesn't but often four do.
01-10-2021 06:20 PM
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Post: #17
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 03:55 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
Quote:"Whether it's six or eight, at some point in time it's going to happen," Stanford coach David Shaw told reporters Wednesday. "We all know it; we all believe it. We're just going to do it very, very slowly and methodically, but it's the only thing that makes sense.

"The only thing that should matter is: Did you fight really, really hard your entire season to win your conference? If you did, you should get a ticket to the dance. Now, outside of those five, now who deserves it? You have to look at independents, you have to look at No. 2s in some of those conferences, look at the roads they traveled. That's the only thing that truly makes sense, and I believe eventually we will get there, whether it's six or eight teams, I think it'll eventually happen."

Stanford coach says there has some room for No. 2's and independents in the new system. Sounds like he believes it champs should be invited based on schedule (CFP ranking?)

These ideas lend themselves to a Top 6 or Top 5 ranked conference champs in as oppose to autobids. This year that would mean Cincinnati as #5 and Coastal in at #6. The commentary here is close to the ken_d proposal.

I read that and I absolutely think Shaw is talking about autobids for the P-5.
I don't think he was including the G-5 at all in his thoughts. Probably never occurred to him.
01-10-2021 07:09 PM
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Post: #18
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 07:09 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 03:55 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
Quote:"Whether it's six or eight, at some point in time it's going to happen," Stanford coach David Shaw told reporters Wednesday. "We all know it; we all believe it. We're just going to do it very, very slowly and methodically, but it's the only thing that makes sense.

"The only thing that should matter is: Did you fight really, really hard your entire season to win your conference? If you did, you should get a ticket to the dance. Now, outside of those five, now who deserves it? You have to look at independents, you have to look at No. 2s in some of those conferences, look at the roads they traveled. That's the only thing that truly makes sense, and I believe eventually we will get there, whether it's six or eight teams, I think it'll eventually happen."

Stanford coach says there has some room for No. 2's and independents in the new system. Sounds like he believes it champs should be invited based on schedule (CFP ranking?)

These ideas lend themselves to a Top 6 or Top 5 ranked conference champs in as oppose to autobids. This year that would mean Cincinnati as #5 and Coastal in at #6. The commentary here is close to the ken_d proposal.

I read that and I absolutely think Shaw is talking about autobids for the P-5.
I don't think he was including the G-5 at all in his thoughts. Probably never occurred to him.

He said it in a way that a "strong" schedule which we know means P5.

But the thing is if its really about the strength then the PAC could be in trouble.
01-10-2021 07:32 PM
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Post: #19
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 06:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 04:35 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 09:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  I am not in favor of an 8 team playoff. I'm not thrilled about a 4 team playoff either, but it's much better than the 2 team BCS model that preceded it. Nevertheless, I recognize that I'm in the minority on this issue, and I strongly expect that FBS will eventually follow the model of other sports and expand their playoffs for the crassest of motives - cash. So here's how I would like to see that go down.

I like it better than 5/1/2, less than straight-8.

One thing it definitely does is raises the stakes of conference championship games.

I'm not sure about that. Most years, a majority of P5 conference title games have big implications for playoff berths. Usually there is one that doesn't but often four do.

The CCG's are important to the participating teams and within the conference.

Its revolves more tightly around questions of the playoff hopefuls. Will OSU secure one of the 4 spots. Its not in of itself thought of as a auto berth game because if Northwestern were to win they wouldn't necessarily be in the Top 4. Same with Iowa St.

More about the top 4 slotting. For the G5 its a little more important as the AAC could slip up in a championship game but rarely they do. If there was a second access bowl on the line that would open it up more for the G5.
01-10-2021 07:36 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #20
RE: NY8 model
(01-10-2021 04:35 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 09:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  I am not in favor of an 8 team playoff. I'm not thrilled about a 4 team playoff either, but it's much better than the 2 team BCS model that preceded it. Nevertheless, I recognize that I'm in the minority on this issue, and I strongly expect that FBS will eventually follow the model of other sports and expand their playoffs for the crassest of motives - cash. So here's how I would like to see that go down.

I like it better than 5/1/2, less than straight-8.

One thing it definitely does is raises the stakes of conference championship games.

Let's think about that. Your view is one I shared when I proposed this. But consider what happens now if 15th ranked Northwestern upsets 3rd ranked Ohio State in the B1G CCG. With only four CFP slots, the Buckeyes almost surely get knocked out. But with 8 CFP slots, maybe Northwestern is still not one of the 6 highest ranked champions and gets left out of the CFP. But would Ohio State drop far enough to also be left out, or could they still get in as an at-large?
01-10-2021 07:50 PM
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