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A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
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jedclampett Offline
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A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
.

Great news for the non-P5 schools & conferences:

For the first time since the P5 split, eight teams were ranked in the Final AP Top 25:

#8 Cincinnati Bearcats 9-1
#11 BYU Cougars 11-1
#14 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 11-1
#15 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 10-1
#17 Liberty Flames 10-1
#23 Ball State Cardinals 7-1
#24 San Jose State Spartans 7-1
#25 Buffalo 6-1

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ated-press


.


Non-P5 teams in Final AP Top 25, 2017-2020:

2017: Four Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#6 UCF
#21 USF

#22 Boise St.
#25 Memphis

2018: Six Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#11 UCF
#18 Fresno St.
#19 Army
#22 Utah St.
#23 Boise St.
#24 Cincinnati

2019: Seven Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#17 Memphis
#19 Appalachian St.
#20 Navy
#21 Cincinnati

#22 Air Force
#23 Boise St.
#24 UCF

2020: Eight Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#8 Cincinnati Bearcats 9-1
#11 BYU Cougars 11-1
#14 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 11-1
#15 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 10-1
#17 Liberty Flames 10-1
#23 Ball State Cardinals 7-1
#24 San Jose State Spartans 7-1
#25 Buffalo 6-1

Other non-P5 teams in the Final 2020 AP Top 25(+5=Top 30):

#26 Appalachian State
#27 Tulsa
#28 Army
#30 Memphis

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ated-press
(This post was last modified: 01-12-2021 07:34 PM by jedclampett.)
01-06-2021 08:39 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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RE: Will the trend continue (more non-P5 teams) in the 2020 Final AP Top 25?
I think that having all the P5's scheduling 0-1 non-con games had a lot to do with the spike in how many teams were ranked.

Instead of Auburn being 6-4 and Wisconsin being 3-3 they likely finish the regular season 8-4. Additionally some of the G5's pick up an extra loss in non-con. Knowing how the rankings usually go based on loss count and what league you play in we'd see far more P5's in there than now since they'd be beating each other up less.
01-07-2021 11:21 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: Will the trend continue (more non-P5 teams) in the 2020 Final AP Top 25?
(01-07-2021 11:21 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  I think that having all the P5's scheduling 0-1 non-con games had a lot to do with the spike in how many teams were ranked.

Instead of Auburn being 6-4 and Wisconsin being 3-3 they likely finish the regular season 8-4. Additionally some of the G5's pick up an extra loss in non-con. Knowing how the rankings usually go based on loss count and what league you play in we'd see far more P5's in there than now since they'd be beating each other up less.

Some P5s, such as Auburn and Wisconsin might have finished at 8-4, and some of the G5s might have picked up another loss, but it would have depended on how well the non-P5 teams would have played in their P5 OOC games. The non-P5 teams have tended to win a higher % of their games vs. the P5s during the regular season than they have in bowl games.

Notably, in 2019, the teams in the top three non-P5 conferences won 38% of their OOC games vs. P5 teams, including ND. In comparison, the teams in the P5 conferences won 45% of their OOC games vs. P5 opponents, including ND.

Quote:Final 2019 records vs. Power 5 non-conference opponents/Notre Dame:

SEC 9-6
Mountain West 9-10
Notre Dame 7-2
Big 12 6-4
American 6-13
Pac-12 5-5
Big Ten 4-5
Sun Belt 4-8
ACC 4-14*
BYU 2-2

One thing is certain - - 2020 was an anomaly and an asterisk season, and this makes comparisons with prior and later seasons very difficult.

However, there were a few factors this season that may support the hypothesis that the upward trend of the non-P5 teams has extended into the 2020 season.

--Even though the AAC wasn't as strong in 2020 as they were in 2019, this was compensated for by an increased number of Sun Belt (Coastal Carolina (11-1), Louisiana (10-1), and Appalachian State (9-3)) and Independent teams (BYU (11-1), Liberty (10-1; 2-1 vs. P5), & Army (9-3)).

--The presence of 11 non-P5 teams in the most recent 2020 regular season AP top 30 were non P5s suggests the possibility of a broader trend toward increased parity.

--The number of ranked non-P5 teams in 2020 has been highly consistent with the pattern observed in 2018 (6 ranked non-P5 teams) and 2019 (7 ranked non-P5 teams).

.

There seem to be three major possibilities, going forward:

1. The multi-year increase from 2 to 4 to 6+ top 25 non-P5 teams may continue over the next few years (although not necessarily at the previously observed pace).

--If the trend does continue, it will be interesting to see if it eventually levels off at a higher number of non-P5 top 25 teams.

2. The somewhat lackluster performances of the top AAC and MWC teams in 2020 might be an indication that the number of ranked non-P5 teams may level off at 2018-2020 levels (6-7 ranked non-P5s).

3. Any of several possible multi-year trends might unfold (e.g., spikes followed by downturns, a repeating cycle, etc.), depending on
viewership, attendance, revenue, etc.
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2021 01:17 PM by jedclampett.)
01-07-2021 12:57 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #4
RE: A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
.

There was also a record-setting total of 12 non-P5 teams in the top 30 of the Final AP Top 25 list - - 8 top 25 teams, plus the following:

#26 Appalachian State
#27 Tulsa
#28 Army
#30 Memphis

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ated-press
01-12-2021 07:31 PM
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GoOwls111 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
(01-06-2021 08:39 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

Great news for the non-P5 schools & conferences:

For the first time since the P5 split, eight teams were ranked in the Final AP Top 25:

#8 Cincinnati Bearcats 9-1
#11 BYU Cougars 11-1
#14 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 11-1
#15 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 10-1
#17 Liberty Flames 10-1
#23 Ball State Cardinals 7-1
#24 San Jose State Spartans 7-1
#25 Buffalo 6-1

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ated-press


.


Non-P5 teams in Final AP Top 25, 2017-2020:

2017: Four Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#6 UCF
#21 USF

#22 Boise St.
#25 Memphis

2018: Six Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#11 UCF
#18 Fresno St.
#19 Army
#22 Utah St.
#23 Boise St.
#24 Cincinnati

2019: Seven Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#17 Memphis
#19 Appalachian St.
#20 Navy
#21 Cincinnati

#22 Air Force
#23 Boise St.
#24 UCF

2020: Eight Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#8 Cincinnati Bearcats 9-1
#11 BYU Cougars 11-1
#14 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 11-1
#15 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 10-1
#17 Liberty Flames 10-1
#23 Ball State Cardinals 7-1
#24 San Jose State Spartans 7-1
#25 Buffalo 6-1

Other non-P5 teams in the Final 2020 AP Top 25(+5=Top 30):

#26 Appalachian State
#27 Tulsa
#28 Army
#30 Memphis

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ated-press

Anyone notice that the top ranked non-AQ team in the top 25 from 2017-2020 as listed above is an AAc team, the AAC has had at least 2 teams in all but 2020, is the only non-AQ conference to have 4bteams ranked in any single final A poll... P6
01-12-2021 09:33 PM
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NoQuarterBrigade Offline
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Post: #6
RE: A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
There is a great article published today from the Athletic specifically about this same topic. It’s great read if you have a subscription.

The Athletic: Final AP Poll Full of Rare Results
01-12-2021 10:27 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
(01-12-2021 09:33 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  
(01-06-2021 08:39 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

Great news for the non-P5 schools & conferences:

For the first time since the P5 split, eight teams were ranked in the Final AP Top 25:

#8 Cincinnati Bearcats 9-1
#11 BYU Cougars 11-1
#14 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 11-1
#15 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 10-1
#17 Liberty Flames 10-1
#23 Ball State Cardinals 7-1
#24 San Jose State Spartans 7-1
#25 Buffalo 6-1

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ated-press


.


Non-P5 teams in Final AP Top 25, 2017-2020:

2017: Four Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#6 UCF
#21 USF

#22 Boise St.
#25 Memphis

2018: Six Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#11 UCF
#18 Fresno St.
#19 Army
#22 Utah St.
#23 Boise St.
#24 Cincinnati

2019: Seven Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#17 Memphis
#19 Appalachian St.
#20 Navy
#21 Cincinnati

#22 Air Force
#23 Boise St.
#24 UCF

2020: Eight Non-P5 Teams in the Final AP Top 25:

#8 Cincinnati Bearcats 9-1
#11 BYU Cougars 11-1
#14 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 11-1
#15 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 10-1
#17 Liberty Flames 10-1
#23 Ball State Cardinals 7-1
#24 San Jose State Spartans 7-1
#25 Buffalo 6-1

Other non-P5 teams in the Final 2020 AP Top 25(+5=Top 30):

#26 Appalachian State
#27 Tulsa
#28 Army
#30 Memphis

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...ated-press

Anyone notice that the top ranked non-AQ team in the top 25 from 2017-2020 as listed above is an AAc team, the AAC has had at least 2 teams in all but 2020, is the only non-AQ conference to have 4bteams ranked in any single final A poll... P6

Correct, and even in 2020, the AAC had 3 teams in the Final AP Top 30, which ain't "chopped liver!"
(This post was last modified: 01-12-2021 10:48 PM by jedclampett.)
01-12-2021 10:46 PM
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RE: A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
Two Sun Belt teams in the final AP top 15 is pretty remarkable.

The pollsters do seem to have a new inclination to rate 9-1 G5 teams ahead of at least *some* P5 teams with 3 or 4 losses. Not all of them, blue bloods like Florida with 4 losses still are high ranked. But these G5 teams are ranked ahead of quite a few 3-loss P5 teams, even some with big names like Texas and Miami, and that seems to be a new development.

But maybe the answer is simpler: The G5 is producing more teams with very good records. E.g., look back to 2014, the first year of the CFP. There was only one G5 school, Marshall, that finished the year with just one loss. All other G5 schools had two or more losses, and only two G5 were ranked in the final AP top 25, Marshall and 10-3 Memphis, who squeaked in at #25.

This year, all of those eight non-P5 teams in the final top 25 had just one loss. So the G5 is generating more teams like this now. And, since this is not happening due to a better win-rate vs P5, it means there is separation occurring within the G5.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2021 09:41 AM by quo vadis.)
01-14-2021 09:34 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #9
RE: A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
.

There are a few skeptics who take every possible opportunity to "rain on the AAC's parade," and to insist that the non-P5 teams will always be relegated to lower caste status, but the overall trend was already clear when the 2019 Final AP FB Top 25 was published.

While it's true that the 2020 season was somewhat non-representative, it's still impressive that eight non-P5 teams were ranked in the top 25, despite the smaller than usual number of P5 vs. non-P5 games.

Another milestone for the non-P5 teams, not mentioned previously, is that four non-P5 teams finished in the top 15 for the first time.

In 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, there was - - at most - - only 1 non-P5 team in the Final AP Top 15
(This post was last modified: 01-15-2021 07:14 AM by jedclampett.)
01-15-2021 07:14 AM
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A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
8 team playoff.
Win your conference and make the top 12 in ANY of the three rankings and you have an auto bid (AP, Coaches, Committee).

I will announce this the first month after I’m named director of the CFP.
01-16-2021 08:01 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
(01-15-2021 07:14 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  There are a few skeptics who take every possible opportunity to "rain on the AAC's parade,"

Well, your numbers show that this year wasn't really the AAC's parade. Last year, 2019, the AAC placed four teams in the final AP Top 25. This year, of the record eight non-P5 teams in the final poll, one was from the AAC.

07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 01-16-2021 09:19 AM by quo vadis.)
01-16-2021 09:15 AM
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KnightLight Offline
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RE: A New Record: 8 non-P5 teams in the 2020 Final AP Top 25!
This year's rankings also shows why so many P5 teams rely on their easy non-conf games to boost their overall record and helps many of them get ranked early each season.

Of course with 2020...most of those cupcake non-conf games were not played...some teams like the SEC, scheduled TEN Conf Games...which will NEVER happen again.

Not only do those easy non-conf "home" games help most P5s get ranked...they also save a lot of coaching jobs...with some basically guaranteeing 3 or even 4 non-conf wins...some HC just need to win 2-3 conf games each year to keep their job year after year after year.
01-16-2021 12:53 PM
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