2 of the P5 conferences have GORs and tv contracts expiring in 2024 and there is a good chance that raiding among the P5 will create opportunities for some schools to move into a P5 league. Who do you think is best positioned to move up?

1 UCF The Knights have distinguished themselves in the NY6 bowls and they bring a big enrollment school, in one of the biggest non-NFL markets, a decent modern on-campus stadium, and FL recruiting

2 Houston The Cougars have also been to a NY6 bowl, they have a fairly new on-campus stadium, big market, and if it’s the Big 12 who is shopping around they can help fill a lost presence in TX.

3 Cincinnati I wish I could put them higher but I think 3 is where they belong. The stadium was renovated recently, Ohio is a football crazed state and I think some Big 12 schools could benefit from an Ohio recruiting presence. They make a nice companion for WVU too

4 South Florida They still have FL recruiting to offer but UCF’s star is buring brighter right now. They face NFL competition and rent a stadium

5 Memphis The Tigers slip onto this list because they’ve been pretty good lately. They don’t have any local NFL competition but their stadium is old and they don’t have as strong an academic profile of some other candidates

Am I off base? What’s your outlook on the topic?

6. None of the above.

Cincy

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but none of us are joining a real power conference. If Texas and Oklahoma both leave the Big 12, and one of us gets an invite that’s not joining a real power league. All of the biggest teams will likely all join up together and leave the scraps behind scrambling. Our best choice is to hold off in hopes the Big 12 collapses and we can possibly get some teams that are left behind. As things are now, none of us provide enough capital to negate what the teams in those conferences would have to give up to get us. Texas and Oklahoma don’t give a sh*t about all the potential UCF may have. What they care about is whether we can make them more money if they re-negotiate their deal. The answer is hell no. Money talks bullsh*t walks. If we want to get in, ESPN has to value us at 38.8+ million per year in revenue (Big 12 TV Deal). None of us are anywhere close to that

If we are talking AAC athletic programs ... Cincinnati, hands down.

As a Bearcat fan, I'm biased. However, UC would bring the Big 12 a rival to West Virginia and a Ohio university. UC would bring the Atlantic Coast a rival to Louisville and, once again, an Ohio university.

UC also brings the best combo of academics, history/tradition, men's hoops and football.

My ranking for the AAC in terms of which is "best positioned for a call-up to the P5" — while admitting the chances for any of these is slim at best:

1. Cincinnati

2. Houston (and a fairly close No. 2 at that)

3. UCF

4. South Florida

5. Memphis (I understand about the academics, but the football-hoops combo, location for prep talent, fan base, and city brand cannot be overlooked)

6. SMU

The other four AAC all-sports programs are fairly even.

(01-05-2021 06:29 PM)IamYourDad Wrote:  Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but none of us are joining a real power conference. If Texas and Oklahoma both leave the Big 12, and one of us gets an invite that’s not joining a real power league. All of the biggest teams will likely all join up together and leave the scraps behind scrambling. Our best choice is to hold off in hopes the Big 12 collapses and we can possibly get some teams that are left behind. As things are now, none of us provide enough capital to negate what the teams in those conferences would have to give up to get us. Texas and Oklahoma don’t give a sh*t about all the potential UCF may have. What they care about is whether we can make them more money if they re-negotiate their deal. The answer is hell no. Money talks bullsh*t walks. If we want to get in, ESPN has to value us at 38.8+ million per year in revenue (Big 12 TV Deal). None of us are anywhere close to that

Yep.

this is a beating a dead horse topic

memphis is not #5, they didnt make top 10 for the big 12, their only viable option just a few years ago..
smu and tulane -- who made the initial big 12 top 10 are in there somewhere

cincy and houston are #1 and 2 in some order for having more than 1 p5 option... (houston- big 12/pac12) (cincy- acc/big12) depends on how the cards fall; if they lose a member or need a partner

The PAC keeps getting left out, there will be expansion coming

Moved as these threads never end well.

1. Cincinnati
2. Houston
3. UCF
4. Memphis
4. SMU

I agree with others that Houston and Cincinnati are 1-A and 1-B due to having multiple options. UCF is equally attractive as an expansion candidate, but doesn't have a realistic chance of making the ACC. SMU, USF, and Memphis are the next tier. Temple has a strong athletics department and a huge market, but lack of an on-campus stadium and their northern location probably sink them. East Carolina hasn't been relevant enough in either revenue sport recently, is in a small market, and has no shot at the ACC, so they are near the bottom. Tulane has a fairly attractive market and academics, but I don't think they have strong enough recent history in the major sports. And Tulsa is just too small. Navy has a puncher's chance if Notre Dame ever joins a conference. My rankings:

1. Cincinnati (flips to Houston depending on which football program is doing better)
2. Houston
3. UCF
4. USF
5. Memphis
6. SMU
7. Temple
8. Tulane
9. Navy
10. East Carolina
11. Tulsa

In nor particular order: UCF, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati.

(01-07-2021 11:25 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  In nor particular order: UCF, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati.

This is the answer. The order will depend on what conference is expanding. For state recruiting value UCF & Houston are toss ups with Cinci at 3rd. For academics Cinci #143, UCF #160, Houston #176, Memphis #258. For facilities UCF, Houston, Cinci, Memphis. For football success 2013-present UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis. For brand recognition UCF has a slight edge because of the back to back undefeated seasons but all are fairly even. All are good in most of these categories but ultimately I believe Memphis's academics will prevent them from getting picked up much like Boise.

I think Houston and UCF have the best probability because of their markets. Cincy would be 3.

(01-07-2021 11:13 PM)BearcatsUC Wrote:  I think Houston and UCF have the best probability because of their markets. Cincy would be 3.

Unfortunately, I don't see any possibility of the Big12 allowing for Houston to join, and having to compete even harder on Texas recruits.

It's been discussed many times before by plenty of people smarter than I
-- https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...mike-gundy.