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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #1
MyBB roster minutes distribution
I keep hearing comments like "Penny wants to be buddies with players and parents, so he gives too many guys minutes", and "Penny plays too many guys with wholesale line changes", etc.

And I will admit to getting frustrated sometimes when Penny subs for someone who seems to be heating up. He's explained that he's trying to keep guys fresh for late game D, but it still gets me sometimes.

So I decided to compare his roster minutes to the rest of the AAC, to see any abnormalities. You know, to put some facts to the commentary we like to toss around.

Memphis
total players with any minutes = 13
total players avg > 10 mins = 10
total players avg > 20 mins = 6
total players playing in all games = 7

Average for all AAC teams
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 9
avg > 20 mins = 6
play in all games = 7

Wow. Penny's minutes distribution is remarkably close to average for the rest of the league. How about with the best team, Houston, and the "best coach", Sampson?

Houston
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 10
avg > 20 mins = 5
play in all games = 7

Yet again, Penny is very similar. While we might have anecdotal complaints about what Penny is doing with his substitutions, it seems to be balancing out over games comparable to what most coaches do.
01-04-2021 12:20 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 12:20 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  I keep hearing comments like "Penny wants to be buddies with players and parents, so he gives too many guys minutes", and "Penny plays too many guys with wholesale line changes", etc.

And I will admit to getting frustrated sometimes when Penny subs for someone who seems to be heating up. He's explained that he's trying to keep guys fresh for late game D, but it still gets me sometimes.

So I decided to compare his roster minutes to the rest of the AAC, to see any abnormalities. You know, to put some facts to the commentary we like to toss around.

Memphis
total players with any minutes = 13
total players avg > 10 mins = 10
total players avg > 20 mins = 6
total players playing in all games = 7

Average for all AAC teams
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 9
avg > 20 mins = 6
play in all games = 7

Wow. Penny's minutes distribution is remarkably close to average for the rest of the league. How about with the best team, Houston, and the "best coach", Sampson?

Houston
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 10
avg > 20 mins = 5
play in all games = 7

Yet again, Penny is very similar. While we might have anecdotal complaints about what Penny is doing with his substitutions, it seems to be balancing out over games comparable to what most coaches do.

Nice analysis...Seems normal.

I wonder what the average duration is...Maybe that is why it seems worse...It would be difficult to pull (not work the effort)

But to be honest...I am not familiar enough with other teams and obvious not nearly as critical...So everything may be equal.
01-04-2021 12:52 PM
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k2tigers Offline
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Post: #3
RE: roster minutes distribution
interesting

I still think the TIMING of some of these subs is a bit odd
01-04-2021 12:56 PM
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Unionman76 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: roster minutes distribution
houston basically played 8 vs smu yesterday (1 other player for houston had 2 minutes)
smu played 8

we play 10 in the first 4 minutes of the game
01-04-2021 01:03 PM
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Post: #5
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 01:03 PM)Unionman76 Wrote:  we play 10 in the first 4 minutes of the game
01-04-2021 02:05 PM
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memtigbb Offline
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Post: #6
RE: roster minutes distribution
Perfect example of how stats and numbers dont necessarily show whats really happening.
01-04-2021 02:23 PM
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SeñorTiger Offline
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Post: #7
RE: roster minutes distribution
Those are deceiving. I found it interesting that Houston was playing 10 guys over 10 minutes. On the surface that is factually true. However, if you go look at the game logs of most of the guys floating at like 11-13 mpg then you see the minutes were front waited against lesser opponents and there minutes have dropped significantly since league play started.

For example:
- Jamal Shed - 18, 2 (against #14 team), 25, 22, 12 (conference opens but 26 point win), 5 (close conf. game), 7 (conf. loss), 10 (conf. 14 point win)
Clearly against quality opponents and competitive conf. games he is not playing 10+
- J'wan Roberts - 17, 21, 3, 14, 12, 15 (conf. opens but 26 point win), 9, 6, 2

Realistically Sampson has effectively trimmed his roster and rotation down to 8 guys and really 7 depending on the game. Reggie Chaney's number vary quite a bit it looks like depending on the game, perhaps he gets more minutes against teams built a certain way.

Contrast that with our 10 guys whose minutes have seen nothing but natural fluctuation but no significant cut in minutes for any players like Sampson is doing with Houston. In addition, we have an 11th guy in Lance whose minutes average under 10 but still gets in that 10+ minutes every 2 or 3 games
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 02:38 PM by SeñorTiger.)
01-04-2021 02:37 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 02:23 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  Perfect example of how stats and numbers dont necessarily show whats really happening.

Or...an example of reality that doesn't fit someone's perception...
01-04-2021 02:51 PM
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mairving Offline
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Post: #9
RE: roster minutes distribution
We don't sub. We have line changes. More in the first half than the second though. In the second half in pretty much every game there is a head scratcher, i.e. why is this guy playing so much and why is this guy playing so little.
01-04-2021 03:02 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 02:37 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Those are deceiving. I found it interesting that Houston was playing 10 guys over 10 minutes. On the surface that is factually true. However, if you go look at the game logs of most of the guys floating at like 11-13 mpg then you see the minutes were front waited against lesser opponents and there minutes have dropped significantly since league play started.

For example:
- Jamal Shed - 18, 2 (against #14 team), 25, 22, 12 (conference opens but 26 point win), 5 (close conf. game), 7 (conf. loss), 10 (conf. 14 point win)
Clearly against quality opponents and competitive conf. games he is not playing 10+
- J'wan Roberts - 17, 21, 3, 14, 12, 15 (conf. opens but 26 point win), 9, 6, 2

Realistically Sampson has effectively trimmed his roster and rotation down to 8 guys and really 7 depending on the game. Reggie Chaney's number vary quite a bit it looks like depending on the game, perhaps he gets more minutes against teams built a certain way.

Contrast that with our 10 guys whose minutes have seen nothing but natural fluctuation but no significant cut in minutes for any players like Sampson is doing with Houston. In addition, we have an 11th guy in Lance whose minutes average under 10 but still gets in that 10+ minutes every 2 or 3 games

That's not quite true.

Houston WITHOUT Caleb Mills is an 8-man rotation. With Mills, they are a 9-man rotation. In no scenario are they a 7-man rotation.

For us - Jayden (14 mins vs 11 mins) and Lance's (11 mins vs 5 mins) are certainly down in the losses, indicating a tighter rotation. And Malcolm has been so sporadic, he's showing 12 mpg but he's not available much of the schedule.

Another example. Both Houston and we lost to Tulsa. In that game:

Memphis
1 player > 30 mins
5 players > 20 mins
8 players > 10 mins
10 players played

Houston
2 players > 30 mins
6 players > 20 mins
7 players > 10 mins
11 players played

That's not a significant difference in distribution. We can nitpick all we want, but the numbers show that overall Penny is not off the norm in minutes.

Again, the timing of some of the subs seems different to me. Maybe that is something his analytics guys need to study a bit more. Sub patterns. But the argument about trying to give too many guys too many minutes just seems wrong in light of the data.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 03:11 PM by Tiger87.)
01-04-2021 03:05 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 02:37 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Those are deceiving. I found it interesting that Houston was playing 10 guys over 10 minutes. On the surface that is factually true. However, if you go look at the game logs of most of the guys floating at like 11-13 mpg then you see the minutes were front waited against lesser opponents and there minutes have dropped significantly since league play started.

For example:
- Jamal Shed - 18, 2 (against #14 team), 25, 22, 12 (conference opens but 26 point win), 5 (close conf. game), 7 (conf. loss), 10 (conf. 14 point win)
Clearly against quality opponents and competitive conf. games he is not playing 10+
- J'wan Roberts - 17, 21, 3, 14, 12, 15 (conf. opens but 26 point win), 9, 6, 2

Realistically Sampson has effectively trimmed his roster and rotation down to 8 guys and really 7 depending on the game. Reggie Chaney's number vary quite a bit it looks like depending on the game, perhaps he gets more minutes against teams built a certain way.

Contrast that with our 10 guys whose minutes have seen nothing but natural fluctuation but no significant cut in minutes for any players like Sampson is doing with Houston. In addition, we have an 11th guy in Lance whose minutes average under 10 but still gets in that 10+ minutes every 2 or 3 games

Don’t our numbers fluctuate based on competition as well.

And the 10 guys over 10 minutes should be 9 because Williams only played 3 games. So his 25 minutes were distributed among other players before then. And Baugh missed a game Malcolm missed 2 and alo missed one.
01-04-2021 03:07 PM
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memtigbb Offline
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Post: #12
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 02:51 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:23 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  Perfect example of how stats and numbers dont necessarily show whats really happening.

Or...an example of reality that doesn't fit someone's perception...

well I guess Penny is wrong again since he said after the last game he was shortening the rotation.

There is an issue with substitutions, everyone knows it, it is not a secret or a conspiracy. Thing about stats, they are like the bible, you can argue either side of a debate and have something to back it up.
01-04-2021 03:14 PM
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SeñorTiger Offline
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Post: #13
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 03:07 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:37 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Those are deceiving. I found it interesting that Houston was playing 10 guys over 10 minutes. On the surface that is factually true. However, if you go look at the game logs of most of the guys floating at like 11-13 mpg then you see the minutes were front waited against lesser opponents and there minutes have dropped significantly since league play started.

For example:
- Jamal Shed - 18, 2 (against #14 team), 25, 22, 12 (conference opens but 26 point win), 5 (close conf. game), 7 (conf. loss), 10 (conf. 14 point win)
Clearly against quality opponents and competitive conf. games he is not playing 10+
- J'wan Roberts - 17, 21, 3, 14, 12, 15 (conf. opens but 26 point win), 9, 6, 2

Realistically Sampson has effectively trimmed his roster and rotation down to 8 guys and really 7 depending on the game. Reggie Chaney's number vary quite a bit it looks like depending on the game, perhaps he gets more minutes against teams built a certain way.

Contrast that with our 10 guys whose minutes have seen nothing but natural fluctuation but no significant cut in minutes for any players like Sampson is doing with Houston. In addition, we have an 11th guy in Lance whose minutes average under 10 but still gets in that 10+ minutes every 2 or 3 games

Don’t our numbers fluctuate based on competition as well.

And the 10 guys over 10 minutes should be 9 because Williams only played 3 games. So his 25 minutes were distributed among other players before then. And Baugh missed a game Malcolm missed 2 and alo missed one.

Here are the numbers, so you can decide for yourself. IMO, looking at the minutes, no Penny does not really adjust minutes to play certain guys less during tougher games. He more or less has a rotation or a number of minutes he wants to get guys and plays them that. Look Alo, 5 out of the last 6 games he is at exactly 20 minutes. To me the fluctuations are just natural in appearance, timeouts, hot hand, foul trouble. It is not, we are playing Tulsa tonight so I better trim the roster down to my best 8, no it is just a distribution of minutes so everyone plays (exception of Lance Thomas who is basically our 11th guy)...

Baugh - 22, 19, 22, 25, 21, 19, 20, 18, 5
Cisse - 20, 19, 18, 19, 21, 24, 21, 15, 13, 25
Malcolm - 9, 14, 10, 9, 15, 15, 14, 11
Boogie - 31, 27, 22, 18, 22, 24, 27, 14, 24, 18
Jayden - 3, 4, 13, 20, 16, 20, 8, 10, 18, 14
Alo - 24, 24, 17, 20, 20, 27, 20, 20, 20
Lester - 22, 19, 29, 24, 31, 30, 18, 30, 22, 27
Lance - 17, 7, 9, 14, 2, 12, 4, 9, 2, 10
DJ - 28, 33, 30, 20, 24, 32, 34, 38, 29, 23
Nolley - 24, 34, 30, 22, 28, 9 (injured), 35, 27, 28, 23
Deandre - 17, 38, 24
01-04-2021 03:32 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 03:32 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:07 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:37 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Those are deceiving. I found it interesting that Houston was playing 10 guys over 10 minutes. On the surface that is factually true. However, if you go look at the game logs of most of the guys floating at like 11-13 mpg then you see the minutes were front waited against lesser opponents and there minutes have dropped significantly since league play started.

For example:
- Jamal Shed - 18, 2 (against #14 team), 25, 22, 12 (conference opens but 26 point win), 5 (close conf. game), 7 (conf. loss), 10 (conf. 14 point win)
Clearly against quality opponents and competitive conf. games he is not playing 10+
- J'wan Roberts - 17, 21, 3, 14, 12, 15 (conf. opens but 26 point win), 9, 6, 2

Realistically Sampson has effectively trimmed his roster and rotation down to 8 guys and really 7 depending on the game. Reggie Chaney's number vary quite a bit it looks like depending on the game, perhaps he gets more minutes against teams built a certain way.

Contrast that with our 10 guys whose minutes have seen nothing but natural fluctuation but no significant cut in minutes for any players like Sampson is doing with Houston. In addition, we have an 11th guy in Lance whose minutes average under 10 but still gets in that 10+ minutes every 2 or 3 games

Don’t our numbers fluctuate based on competition as well.

And the 10 guys over 10 minutes should be 9 because Williams only played 3 games. So his 25 minutes were distributed among other players before then. And Baugh missed a game Malcolm missed 2 and alo missed one.

Here are the numbers, so you can decide for yourself. IMO, looking at the minutes, no Penny does not really adjust minutes to play certain guys less during tougher games. He more or less has a rotation or a number of minutes he wants to get guys and plays them that. Look Alo, 5 out of the last 6 games he is at exactly 20 minutes. To me the fluctuations are just natural in appearance, timeouts, hot hand, foul trouble. It is not, we are playing Tulsa tonight so I better trim the roster down to my best 8, no it is just a distribution of minutes so everyone plays (exception of Lance Thomas who is basically our 11th guy)...

Baugh - 22, 19, 22, 25, 21, 19, 20, 18, 5
Cisse - 20, 19, 18, 19, 21, 24, 21, 15, 13, 25
Malcolm - 9, 14, 10, 9, 15, 15, 14, 11
Boogie - 31, 27, 22, 18, 22, 24, 27, 14, 24, 18
Jayden - 3, 4, 13, 20, 16, 20, 8, 10, 18, 14
Alo - 24, 24, 17, 20, 20, 27, 20, 20, 20
Lester - 22, 19, 29, 24, 31, 30, 18, 30, 22, 27
Lance - 17, 7, 9, 14, 2, 12, 4, 9, 2, 10
DJ - 28, 33, 30, 20, 24, 32, 34, 38, 29, 23
Nolley - 24, 34, 30, 22, 28, 9 (injured), 35, 27, 28, 23
Deandre - 17, 38, 24

Lance - 17, 7, 9, 14, 2, 12, 4, 9, 2, 10
Jayden - 3, 4, 13, 20, 16, 20, 8, 10,18, 14

Bold 10+ point victories
Red Missing players (Not including Deandre)

Malcolm just has limitations based on his health...I would guess that is why his minutes seem to always be limited.

I do think Penny tries to get everyone in the game in the first half. Then he tightens the rotation in the 2nd half. He essentially admits he feels bad when he doesn't play guys...Said several times about Maurice last year. He does need to let that go.

But we have had one game with a full roster...Hard to look at numbers without taking that into account.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 03:58 PM by macgar32.)
01-04-2021 03:53 PM
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SeñorTiger Offline
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Post: #15
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 03:05 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:37 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Those are deceiving. I found it interesting that Houston was playing 10 guys over 10 minutes. On the surface that is factually true. However, if you go look at the game logs of most of the guys floating at like 11-13 mpg then you see the minutes were front waited against lesser opponents and there minutes have dropped significantly since league play started.

For example:
- Jamal Shed - 18, 2 (against #14 team), 25, 22, 12 (conference opens but 26 point win), 5 (close conf. game), 7 (conf. loss), 10 (conf. 14 point win)
Clearly against quality opponents and competitive conf. games he is not playing 10+
- J'wan Roberts - 17, 21, 3, 14, 12, 15 (conf. opens but 26 point win), 9, 6, 2

Realistically Sampson has effectively trimmed his roster and rotation down to 8 guys and really 7 depending on the game. Reggie Chaney's number vary quite a bit it looks like depending on the game, perhaps he gets more minutes against teams built a certain way.

Contrast that with our 10 guys whose minutes have seen nothing but natural fluctuation but no significant cut in minutes for any players like Sampson is doing with Houston. In addition, we have an 11th guy in Lance whose minutes average under 10 but still gets in that 10+ minutes every 2 or 3 games

That's not quite true.

Houston WITHOUT Caleb Mills is an 8-man rotation. With Mills, they are a 9-man rotation. In no scenario are they a 7-man rotation.

For us - Jayden (14 mins vs 11 mins) and Lance's (11 mins vs 5 mins) are certainly down in the losses, indicating a tighter rotation. And Malcolm has been so sporadic, he's showing 12 mpg but he's not available much of the schedule.

Another example. Both Houston and we lost to Tulsa. In that game:

Memphis
1 player > 30 mins
5 players > 20 mins
8 players > 10 mins
10 players played

Houston
2 players > 30 mins
6 players > 20 mins
7 players > 10 mins
11 players played

That's not a significant difference in distribution. We can nitpick all we want, but the numbers show that overall Penny is not off the norm in minutes.

Again, the timing of some of the subs seems different to me. Maybe that is something his analytics guys need to study a bit more. Sub patterns. But the argument about trying to give too many guys too many minutes just seems wrong in light of the data.
What you are saying is simply not true. Look at his minutes distribution, it is staying flat and consistent. As the season goes, Houston's is tightening up...

Houston players at 10+ mpg (including Mills)

- Reggie Chaney
- Justin Gorham
- Brison Gresham
- Quentin Grimes
- Dejon Jarreau
- Tramon Mark
- Caleb Mills
- J'Wan Roberts - mpg = 11.0 - since conference started 8 mpg (15, 9, 6, 2 fallen every game) - not part of the "rotation" and below 10 mpg
- Marcus Sasser
- Jamal Shead - mpg = 12.6 - since conference started 8.5 and 6 in the two close games - not part of the "rotation" and below 10 mpg for conference

Drop Roberts, drop Shead and leave Mills and you are at an 8 man rotation. Take Mills out and you are down to 7. Possibly Shead starts getting more minutes and the rotation goes back up to 8.

The point is simple, Sampson was clearly starting to reduce minutes on his two freshman (Shead and Roberts) upon conference play starting and tightening his roster down to 8 main players.


Malcolm has not been sporadic... 9, 14, 10, 9, 15, 15, 14 & 11 (between 9 and 15 minutes with his last 4 being 15, 15, 14, & 11 coming back from injury)

And again with Jayden you are cherry picking stats or looking at the season cumulative totals and not looking at the how the numbers are trending. Jayden's conference games (3 most recent) 10 minutes (win), 18 minutes (loss), 14 minutes (win)... And that is exactly my point, Penny's roster is not tightening up now that conference play is here and it should be. We should have seen two guys (Alo, Baugh, Jayden, Boogie) start seeing dramatically reduced minutes and that just is not happening, we are rolling with 10 while most teams are refining down to 8.
01-04-2021 04:00 PM
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SeñorTiger Offline
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Post: #16
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 03:53 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:32 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:07 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:37 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Those are deceiving. I found it interesting that Houston was playing 10 guys over 10 minutes. On the surface that is factually true. However, if you go look at the game logs of most of the guys floating at like 11-13 mpg then you see the minutes were front waited against lesser opponents and there minutes have dropped significantly since league play started.

For example:
- Jamal Shed - 18, 2 (against #14 team), 25, 22, 12 (conference opens but 26 point win), 5 (close conf. game), 7 (conf. loss), 10 (conf. 14 point win)
Clearly against quality opponents and competitive conf. games he is not playing 10+
- J'wan Roberts - 17, 21, 3, 14, 12, 15 (conf. opens but 26 point win), 9, 6, 2

Realistically Sampson has effectively trimmed his roster and rotation down to 8 guys and really 7 depending on the game. Reggie Chaney's number vary quite a bit it looks like depending on the game, perhaps he gets more minutes against teams built a certain way.

Contrast that with our 10 guys whose minutes have seen nothing but natural fluctuation but no significant cut in minutes for any players like Sampson is doing with Houston. In addition, we have an 11th guy in Lance whose minutes average under 10 but still gets in that 10+ minutes every 2 or 3 games

Don’t our numbers fluctuate based on competition as well.

And the 10 guys over 10 minutes should be 9 because Williams only played 3 games. So his 25 minutes were distributed among other players before then. And Baugh missed a game Malcolm missed 2 and alo missed one.

Here are the numbers, so you can decide for yourself. IMO, looking at the minutes, no Penny does not really adjust minutes to play certain guys less during tougher games. He more or less has a rotation or a number of minutes he wants to get guys and plays them that. Look Alo, 5 out of the last 6 games he is at exactly 20 minutes. To me the fluctuations are just natural in appearance, timeouts, hot hand, foul trouble. It is not, we are playing Tulsa tonight so I better trim the roster down to my best 8, no it is just a distribution of minutes so everyone plays (exception of Lance Thomas who is basically our 11th guy)...

Baugh - 22, 19, 22, 25, 21, 19, 20, 18, 5
Cisse - 20, 19, 18, 19, 21, 24, 21, 15, 13, 25
Malcolm - 9, 14, 10, 9, 15, 15, 14, 11
Boogie - 31, 27, 22, 18, 22, 24, 27, 14, 24, 18
Jayden - 3, 4, 13, 20, 16, 20, 8, 10, 18, 14
Alo - 24, 24, 17, 20, 20, 27, 20, 20, 20
Lester - 22, 19, 29, 24, 31, 30, 18, 30, 22, 27
Lance - 17, 7, 9, 14, 2, 12, 4, 9, 2, 10
DJ - 28, 33, 30, 20, 24, 32, 34, 38, 29, 23
Nolley - 24, 34, 30, 22, 28, 9 (injured), 35, 27, 28, 23
Deandre - 17, 38, 24

Lance - 17, 7, 9, 14, 2, 12, 4, 9, 2, 10
Jayden - 3, 4, 13, 20, 16, 20, 8, 10,18, 14

Bold 10+ point victories
Red Missing players (Not including Deandre)

Malcolm just has limitations based on his health...I would guess that is why his minutes seem to always be limited.

I do think Penny tries to get everyone in the game in the first half. Then he tightens the rotation in the 2nd half. He essentially admits he feels bad when he doesn't play guys...Said several times about Maurice last year. He does need to let that go.

But we have had one game with a full roster...Hard to look at numbers without taking that into account.

Lance is the one player that seems to be in the dog house with Penny. His numbers appear to be dependent on quality of opponent or at least not "I need to make sure and get him his 12 minutes tonight".
01-04-2021 04:03 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 04:03 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:53 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:32 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:07 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:37 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Those are deceiving. I found it interesting that Houston was playing 10 guys over 10 minutes. On the surface that is factually true. However, if you go look at the game logs of most of the guys floating at like 11-13 mpg then you see the minutes were front waited against lesser opponents and there minutes have dropped significantly since league play started.

For example:
- Jamal Shed - 18, 2 (against #14 team), 25, 22, 12 (conference opens but 26 point win), 5 (close conf. game), 7 (conf. loss), 10 (conf. 14 point win)
Clearly against quality opponents and competitive conf. games he is not playing 10+
- J'wan Roberts - 17, 21, 3, 14, 12, 15 (conf. opens but 26 point win), 9, 6, 2

Realistically Sampson has effectively trimmed his roster and rotation down to 8 guys and really 7 depending on the game. Reggie Chaney's number vary quite a bit it looks like depending on the game, perhaps he gets more minutes against teams built a certain way.

Contrast that with our 10 guys whose minutes have seen nothing but natural fluctuation but no significant cut in minutes for any players like Sampson is doing with Houston. In addition, we have an 11th guy in Lance whose minutes average under 10 but still gets in that 10+ minutes every 2 or 3 games

Don’t our numbers fluctuate based on competition as well.

And the 10 guys over 10 minutes should be 9 because Williams only played 3 games. So his 25 minutes were distributed among other players before then. And Baugh missed a game Malcolm missed 2 and alo missed one.

Here are the numbers, so you can decide for yourself. IMO, looking at the minutes, no Penny does not really adjust minutes to play certain guys less during tougher games. He more or less has a rotation or a number of minutes he wants to get guys and plays them that. Look Alo, 5 out of the last 6 games he is at exactly 20 minutes. To me the fluctuations are just natural in appearance, timeouts, hot hand, foul trouble. It is not, we are playing Tulsa tonight so I better trim the roster down to my best 8, no it is just a distribution of minutes so everyone plays (exception of Lance Thomas who is basically our 11th guy)...

Baugh - 22, 19, 22, 25, 21, 19, 20, 18, 5
Cisse - 20, 19, 18, 19, 21, 24, 21, 15, 13, 25
Malcolm - 9, 14, 10, 9, 15, 15, 14, 11
Boogie - 31, 27, 22, 18, 22, 24, 27, 14, 24, 18
Jayden - 3, 4, 13, 20, 16, 20, 8, 10, 18, 14
Alo - 24, 24, 17, 20, 20, 27, 20, 20, 20
Lester - 22, 19, 29, 24, 31, 30, 18, 30, 22, 27
Lance - 17, 7, 9, 14, 2, 12, 4, 9, 2, 10
DJ - 28, 33, 30, 20, 24, 32, 34, 38, 29, 23
Nolley - 24, 34, 30, 22, 28, 9 (injured), 35, 27, 28, 23
Deandre - 17, 38, 24

Lance - 17, 7, 9, 14, 2, 12, 4, 9, 2, 10
Jayden - 3, 4, 13, 20, 16, 20, 8, 10,18, 14

Bold 10+ point victories
Red Missing players (Not including Deandre)

Malcolm just has limitations based on his health...I would guess that is why his minutes seem to always be limited.

I do think Penny tries to get everyone in the game in the first half. Then he tightens the rotation in the 2nd half. He essentially admits he feels bad when he doesn't play guys...Said several times about Maurice last year. He does need to let that go.

But we have had one game with a full roster...Hard to look at numbers without taking that into account.

Lance is the one player that seems to be in the dog house with Penny. His numbers appear to be dependent on quality of opponent or at least not "I need to make sure and get him his 12 minutes tonight".

I dont think it is that simple...But I do agree that Penny will try to sneak guys in the first half to make sure they play...Did it all last year with Junior.

Baugh has had back issues and played 5 minutes against USF...But with us I understand the guards minutes being all over the place (outside of Q). They are interchangeably mediocre. The issue is those guards are the only true ballhandlers on the team.

DJ, Williams and Q need to get as close to 30 minutes a game. I am quickly falling out of love with Nolley.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 04:18 PM by macgar32.)
01-04-2021 04:16 PM
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Stammers Online
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Post: #18
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 03:14 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:51 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:23 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  Perfect example of how stats and numbers dont necessarily show whats really happening.

Or...an example of reality that doesn't fit someone's perception...

well I guess Penny is wrong again since he said after the last game he was shortening the rotation.

There is an issue with substitutions, everyone knows it, it is not a secret or a conspiracy. Thing about stats, they are like the bible, you can argue either side of a debate and have something to back it up.

Hopefully, we can put +/- to rest; you know the one where a player who is 1-5 from the field with 2 points is a +11 and another with 14 points and 5 rebounds is a -8. The one where when Lomax has a bad number it is proof that he sucks, and when he has a good number, the same posters say that it isn't indicative of his play, and he benefitted from everyone else getting hot.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 04:29 PM by Stammers.)
01-04-2021 04:28 PM
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memtigbb Offline
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Post: #19
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 04:28 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:14 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:51 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:23 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  Perfect example of how stats and numbers dont necessarily show whats really happening.

Or...an example of reality that doesn't fit someone's perception...

well I guess Penny is wrong again since he said after the last game he was shortening the rotation.

There is an issue with substitutions, everyone knows it, it is not a secret or a conspiracy. Thing about stats, they are like the bible, you can argue either side of a debate and have something to back it up.

Hopefully, we can put +/- to rest; you know the one where a player who is 1-5 from the field with 2 points is a +11 and another with 14 points and 5 rebounds is a -8. The one where when Lomax has a bad number it is proof that he sucks, and when he has a good number, the same posters say that it isn't indicative of his play, and he benefitted from everyone else getting hot.

I am sure you are aware, I wasnt one of those touting the +/- numbers either. I watch the games, every game, every minute of every game. That is how I come to my opinions.
01-04-2021 04:57 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 04:57 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 04:28 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:14 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:51 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:23 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  Perfect example of how stats and numbers dont necessarily show whats really happening.

Or...an example of reality that doesn't fit someone's perception...

well I guess Penny is wrong again since he said after the last game he was shortening the rotation.

There is an issue with substitutions, everyone knows it, it is not a secret or a conspiracy. Thing about stats, they are like the bible, you can argue either side of a debate and have something to back it up.

Hopefully, we can put +/- to rest; you know the one where a player who is 1-5 from the field with 2 points is a +11 and another with 14 points and 5 rebounds is a -8. The one where when Lomax has a bad number it is proof that he sucks, and when he has a good number, the same posters say that it isn't indicative of his play, and he benefitted from everyone else getting hot.

I am sure you are aware, I wasnt one of those touting the +/- numbers either. I watch the games, every game, every minute of every game. That is how I come to my opinions.

Every stat is subjective...Every stat has flaws.

But somethings are not easily seen...That is why coaches pay good money to have these stats created and evaluated.

Watching is the most important component...But many things are missed.

If you have a player whose numbers are grossly below teams averages with no explanation it needs to be investigated as to why.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 05:23 PM by macgar32.)
01-04-2021 05:16 PM
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