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Stammers Online
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Post: #21
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 05:16 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 04:57 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 04:28 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:14 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 02:51 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Or...an example of reality that doesn't fit someone's perception...

well I guess Penny is wrong again since he said after the last game he was shortening the rotation.

There is an issue with substitutions, everyone knows it, it is not a secret or a conspiracy. Thing about stats, they are like the bible, you can argue either side of a debate and have something to back it up.

Hopefully, we can put +/- to rest; you know the one where a player who is 1-5 from the field with 2 points is a +11 and another with 14 points and 5 rebounds is a -8. The one where when Lomax has a bad number it is proof that he sucks, and when he has a good number, the same posters say that it isn't indicative of his play, and he benefitted from everyone else getting hot.

I am sure you are aware, I wasnt one of those touting the +/- numbers either. I watch the games, every game, every minute of every game. That is how I come to my opinions.

Every stat is subjective...Every stat has flaws.

But somethings are not easily seen...That is why coaches pay good money to have these stats created and evaluated.

Watching is the most important component...But many things are missed.

If you have a player whose numbers are grossly below teams averages with no explanation it needs to be investigated as to why.

Plus/minus is a reliable statistic in pro hockey. You have 4 defined forward and defense lines, there are only an average of 6 goals scored in each game and there is a sample size of 82 games, with each of the 16 teams in each conference, playing a very similar schedule. Because of the low number of goals per game, the plus/minus numbers are more meaningful.

With 6 goals scored per game, if there are players that are on the ice for more goals for or against, it will eventually show up. It also allows for players that don't score much to have very good numbers, merely by not being on the ice for many goals against.

The one wildcard is the goalie. A great goaltender can distort the numbers at the league level, but at the same time, the numbers within the team will reflect who is better.

In basketball, the same player making or missing 4 shots in a row will have a big impact on the numbers for players that have little or no involvement in the scoring plays. The same with opposing players.

As I said in another thread from a while back. One of the advanced stats showed Chris Chiozza one spot ahead of Fred VanVleet. Chiozza averages 4.2 points per game while VanVleet was making shots that help the Raptors make playoff runs and win an NBA title.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 05:39 PM by Stammers.)
01-04-2021 05:39 PM
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macgar32 Online
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Post: #22
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 05:39 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:16 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 04:57 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 04:28 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 03:14 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  well I guess Penny is wrong again since he said after the last game he was shortening the rotation.

There is an issue with substitutions, everyone knows it, it is not a secret or a conspiracy. Thing about stats, they are like the bible, you can argue either side of a debate and have something to back it up.

Hopefully, we can put +/- to rest; you know the one where a player who is 1-5 from the field with 2 points is a +11 and another with 14 points and 5 rebounds is a -8. The one where when Lomax has a bad number it is proof that he sucks, and when he has a good number, the same posters say that it isn't indicative of his play, and he benefitted from everyone else getting hot.

I am sure you are aware, I wasnt one of those touting the +/- numbers either. I watch the games, every game, every minute of every game. That is how I come to my opinions.

Every stat is subjective...Every stat has flaws.

But somethings are not easily seen...That is why coaches pay good money to have these stats created and evaluated.

Watching is the most important component...But many things are missed.

If you have a player whose numbers are grossly below teams averages with no explanation it needs to be investigated as to why.

Plus/minus is a reliable statistic in pro hockey. You have 4 defined forward and defense lines, there are only an average of 6 goals scored in each game and there is a sample size of 82 games, with each of the 16 teams in each conference, playing a very similar schedule. Because of the low number of goals per game, the plus/minus numbers are more meaningful.

With 6 goals scored per game, if there are players that are on the ice for more goals for or against, it will eventually show up. It also allows for players that don't score much to have very good numbers, merely by not being on the ice for many goals against.

The one wildcard is the goalie. A great goaltender can distort the numbers at the league level, but at the same time, the numbers within the team will reflect who is better.

In basketball, the same player making or missing 4 shots in a row will have a big impact on the numbers for players that have little or no involvement in the scoring plays. The same with opposing players.

As I said in another thread from a while back. One of the advanced stats showed Chris Chiozza one spot ahead of Fred VanVleet. Chiozza averages 4.2 points per game while VanVleet was making shots that help the Raptors make playoff runs and win an NBA title.

Raw +/- should never be used to compare players from different teams...

If team A wins every game by 20 points and team B wins every game by 2 points

The 7th best player on Team A will have a better +/- than any player on Team B.

The two years Pierre Niles played for Cal he likely had a better +/- than Dedric had in his one year under Tubby.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 05:46 PM by macgar32.)
01-04-2021 05:44 PM
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Stammers Online
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Post: #23
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 05:44 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:39 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:16 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 04:57 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 04:28 PM)Stammers Wrote:  Hopefully, we can put +/- to rest; you know the one where a player who is 1-5 from the field with 2 points is a +11 and another with 14 points and 5 rebounds is a -8. The one where when Lomax has a bad number it is proof that he sucks, and when he has a good number, the same posters say that it isn't indicative of his play, and he benefitted from everyone else getting hot.

I am sure you are aware, I wasnt one of those touting the +/- numbers either. I watch the games, every game, every minute of every game. That is how I come to my opinions.

Every stat is subjective...Every stat has flaws.

But somethings are not easily seen...That is why coaches pay good money to have these stats created and evaluated.

Watching is the most important component...But many things are missed.

If you have a player whose numbers are grossly below teams averages with no explanation it needs to be investigated as to why.

Plus/minus is a reliable statistic in pro hockey. You have 4 defined forward and defense lines, there are only an average of 6 goals scored in each game and there is a sample size of 82 games, with each of the 16 teams in each conference, playing a very similar schedule. Because of the low number of goals per game, the plus/minus numbers are more meaningful.

With 6 goals scored per game, if there are players that are on the ice for more goals for or against, it will eventually show up. It also allows for players that don't score much to have very good numbers, merely by not being on the ice for many goals against.

The one wildcard is the goalie. A great goaltender can distort the numbers at the league level, but at the same time, the numbers within the team will reflect who is better.

In basketball, the same player making or missing 4 shots in a row will have a big impact on the numbers for players that have little or no involvement in the scoring plays. The same with opposing players.

As I said in another thread from a while back. One of the advanced stats showed Chris Chiozza one spot ahead of Fred VanVleet. Chiozza averages 4.2 points per game while VanVleet was making shots that help the Raptors make playoff runs and win an NBA title.

Raw +/- should never be used to compare players from different teams...

If team A wins every game by 20 points and team B wins every game by 2 points

The 7th best player on Team A will have a better +/- than any player on Team B.

The two years Pierre Niles played for Cal he likely had a better +/- than Dedric had in his one year under Tubby.

In hockey, the numbers mostly work across the board, within a team and within similarly performing teams within the divisions, conference and league.
01-04-2021 06:09 PM
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Post: #24
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 06:09 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:44 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:39 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:16 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 04:57 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I am sure you are aware, I wasnt one of those touting the +/- numbers either. I watch the games, every game, every minute of every game. That is how I come to my opinions.

Every stat is subjective...Every stat has flaws.

But somethings are not easily seen...That is why coaches pay good money to have these stats created and evaluated.

Watching is the most important component...But many things are missed.

If you have a player whose numbers are grossly below teams averages with no explanation it needs to be investigated as to why.

Plus/minus is a reliable statistic in pro hockey. You have 4 defined forward and defense lines, there are only an average of 6 goals scored in each game and there is a sample size of 82 games, with each of the 16 teams in each conference, playing a very similar schedule. Because of the low number of goals per game, the plus/minus numbers are more meaningful.

With 6 goals scored per game, if there are players that are on the ice for more goals for or against, it will eventually show up. It also allows for players that don't score much to have very good numbers, merely by not being on the ice for many goals against.

The one wildcard is the goalie. A great goaltender can distort the numbers at the league level, but at the same time, the numbers within the team will reflect who is better.

In basketball, the same player making or missing 4 shots in a row will have a big impact on the numbers for players that have little or no involvement in the scoring plays. The same with opposing players.

As I said in another thread from a while back. One of the advanced stats showed Chris Chiozza one spot ahead of Fred VanVleet. Chiozza averages 4.2 points per game while VanVleet was making shots that help the Raptors make playoff runs and win an NBA title.

Raw +/- should never be used to compare players from different teams...

If team A wins every game by 20 points and team B wins every game by 2 points

The 7th best player on Team A will have a better +/- than any player on Team B.

The two years Pierre Niles played for Cal he likely had a better +/- than Dedric had in his one year under Tubby.

In hockey, the numbers mostly work across the board, within a team and within similarly performing teams within the divisions, conference and league.

That is fair...But it does not translate between teams in basketball...

And it is also not always good in basketball based on substitution patterns...But I think we all can agree...Penny doesn't have any pattern of substitution after the first 10 minutes of the game.

Anytime you end up with Lomax, Cisse and Malcolm on the floor at the same time you know there is no pattern. I think that is what Penny needs to learn more than anything else...Which combos do not work...Who should never play together...But sometimes it seems like Penny is throwing it at the wall and hoping it sticks.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 06:21 PM by macgar32.)
01-04-2021 06:17 PM
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Stammers Online
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Post: #25
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 06:17 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 06:09 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:44 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:39 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:16 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  Every stat is subjective...Every stat has flaws.

But somethings are not easily seen...That is why coaches pay good money to have these stats created and evaluated.

Watching is the most important component...But many things are missed.

If you have a player whose numbers are grossly below teams averages with no explanation it needs to be investigated as to why.

Plus/minus is a reliable statistic in pro hockey. You have 4 defined forward and defense lines, there are only an average of 6 goals scored in each game and there is a sample size of 82 games, with each of the 16 teams in each conference, playing a very similar schedule. Because of the low number of goals per game, the plus/minus numbers are more meaningful.

With 6 goals scored per game, if there are players that are on the ice for more goals for or against, it will eventually show up. It also allows for players that don't score much to have very good numbers, merely by not being on the ice for many goals against.

The one wildcard is the goalie. A great goaltender can distort the numbers at the league level, but at the same time, the numbers within the team will reflect who is better.

In basketball, the same player making or missing 4 shots in a row will have a big impact on the numbers for players that have little or no involvement in the scoring plays. The same with opposing players.

As I said in another thread from a while back. One of the advanced stats showed Chris Chiozza one spot ahead of Fred VanVleet. Chiozza averages 4.2 points per game while VanVleet was making shots that help the Raptors make playoff runs and win an NBA title.

Raw +/- should never be used to compare players from different teams...

If team A wins every game by 20 points and team B wins every game by 2 points

The 7th best player on Team A will have a better +/- than any player on Team B.

The two years Pierre Niles played for Cal he likely had a better +/- than Dedric had in his one year under Tubby.

In hockey, the numbers mostly work across the board, within a team and within similarly performing teams within the divisions, conference and league.

That is fair...But it does not translate between teams in basketball...

And it is also not always good in basketball based on substitution patterns...But I think we all can agree...Penny doesn't have any pattern of substitution after the first 10 minutes of the game.

Anytime you end up with Lomax, Cisse and Malcolm on the floor at the same time you know there is no pattern. I think that is what Penny needs to learn more than anything else...Which combos do not work...Who should never play together...But sometimes it seems like Penny is throwing it at the wall and hoping it sticks.

It isn't working because it's a bad strategy, it's not working because it's not working. Lots of very successful football coaches script the first 10 plays or at least the first few. The strategy doesn't have to be adaptive. It seems reasonable to think that getting everyone involved in the first ten minutes could be a good idea, but it hasn't turned out like that.
01-04-2021 08:07 PM
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Post: #26
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-04-2021 12:20 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  I keep hearing comments like "Penny wants to be buddies with players and parents, so he gives too many guys minutes", and "Penny plays too many guys with wholesale line changes", etc.

And I will admit to getting frustrated sometimes when Penny subs for someone who seems to be heating up. He's explained that he's trying to keep guys fresh for late game D, but it still gets me sometimes.

So I decided to compare his roster minutes to the rest of the AAC, to see any abnormalities. You know, to put some facts to the commentary we like to toss around.

Memphis
total players with any minutes = 13
total players avg > 10 mins = 10
total players avg > 20 mins = 6
total players playing in all games = 7

Average for all AAC teams
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 9
avg > 20 mins = 6
play in all games = 7

Wow. Penny's minutes distribution is remarkably close to average for the rest of the league. How about with the best team, Houston, and the "best coach", Sampson?

Houston
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 10
avg > 20 mins = 5
play in all games = 7

Yet again, Penny is very similar. While we might have anecdotal complaints about what Penny is doing with his substitutions, it seems to be balancing out over games comparable to what most coaches do.

Do you know statistically if anyone else platoons liked Penny? That seems to me to be the momentum killer.
01-05-2021 11:31 AM
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Post: #27
roster minutes distribution
(01-05-2021 11:31 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 12:20 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  I keep hearing comments like "Penny wants to be buddies with players and parents, so he gives too many guys minutes", and "Penny plays too many guys with wholesale line changes", etc.

And I will admit to getting frustrated sometimes when Penny subs for someone who seems to be heating up. He's explained that he's trying to keep guys fresh for late game D, but it still gets me sometimes.

So I decided to compare his roster minutes to the rest of the AAC, to see any abnormalities. You know, to put some facts to the commentary we like to toss around.

Memphis
total players with any minutes = 13
total players avg > 10 mins = 10
total players avg > 20 mins = 6
total players playing in all games = 7

Average for all AAC teams
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 9
avg > 20 mins = 6
play in all games = 7

Wow. Penny's minutes distribution is remarkably close to average for the rest of the league. How about with the best team, Houston, and the "best coach", Sampson?

Houston
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 10
avg > 20 mins = 5
play in all games = 7

Yet again, Penny is very similar. While we might have anecdotal complaints about what Penny is doing with his substitutions, it seems to be balancing out over games comparable to what most coaches do.

Do you know statistically if anyone else platoons liked Penny? That seems to me to be the momentum killer.


I think Johnny Jones did it when he took over as interim for Tic Price.
01-05-2021 11:33 AM
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Post: #28
RE: roster minutes distribution
Cal tried it a few years ago. He kept it through the first 10ish games, then scrapped it.

I think Penny is slowly moving away from full platoon line changes. It seems he now goes with a couple at a time. I agree, IMO, he tries too many guys in the 1st half. Looks like he's giving everyone a shot to see who has the hot hand tonight.
01-05-2021 12:22 PM
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macgar32 Online
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Post: #29
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-05-2021 11:31 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 12:20 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  I keep hearing comments like "Penny wants to be buddies with players and parents, so he gives too many guys minutes", and "Penny plays too many guys with wholesale line changes", etc.

And I will admit to getting frustrated sometimes when Penny subs for someone who seems to be heating up. He's explained that he's trying to keep guys fresh for late game D, but it still gets me sometimes.

So I decided to compare his roster minutes to the rest of the AAC, to see any abnormalities. You know, to put some facts to the commentary we like to toss around.

Memphis
total players with any minutes = 13
total players avg > 10 mins = 10
total players avg > 20 mins = 6
total players playing in all games = 7

Average for all AAC teams
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 9
avg > 20 mins = 6
play in all games = 7

Wow. Penny's minutes distribution is remarkably close to average for the rest of the league. How about with the best team, Houston, and the "best coach", Sampson?

Houston
players with minutes = 13
avg > 10 mins = 10
avg > 20 mins = 5
play in all games = 7

Yet again, Penny is very similar. While we might have anecdotal complaints about what Penny is doing with his substitutions, it seems to be balancing out over games comparable to what most coaches do.

Do you know statistically if anyone else platoons liked Penny? That seems to me to be the momentum killer.

I wish Penny Platoon'ed

He is not subbing groups of guys who complement each other...Seems like he is randomly subbing based on feel after the first 10 minutes of the game
01-05-2021 12:38 PM
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Post: #30
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-05-2021 12:22 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Cal tried it a few years ago. He kept it through the first 10ish games, then scrapped it.

I think Penny is slowly moving away from full platoon line changes. It seems he now goes with a couple at a time. I agree, IMO, he tries too many guys in the 1st half. Looks like he's giving everyone a shot to see who has the hot hand tonight.

On the surface makes a lot of sense for him to give everyone a chance. You for sure can't argue against it. Our nucleus of scorers is so wildly inconsistent, I've never seen anything like it.

Boogie - 6 games of 10 points or more, 4 games with a total of 11 points
Nolley - 3 games of 23 points or more, 4 games with 25 total points
DJ - 5 games of 15 points or more, 5 games with 30 total points
LQ - 6 games with 11 points or more, 4 games with 17 total points

Do you know what you're going to get from these guys at the beginning of each game? I sure don't. Boogie seems to have the shortest leash with Penny. He will limit his minutes the quickest when it isn't going well.

Despite this, they are all averaging at least 22.7 minutes per game, with Boogie at the low end, and DJ leading at 29 minutes per game. None of them can say that they aren't getting the chance to earn as many minutes as they want.
01-05-2021 01:48 PM
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Post: #31
RE: roster minutes distribution
(01-05-2021 12:22 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Cal tried it a few years ago. He kept it through the first 10ish games, then scrapped it.

I think Penny is slowly moving away from full platoon line changes. It seems he now goes with a couple at a time. I agree, IMO, he tries too many guys in the 1st half. Looks like he's giving everyone a shot to see who has the hot hand tonight.

And it seems when a guy gets the hot hand, he subs someone else in to take his place. His hockey line changes have got to go.

Everyone gets a trophy approach to coaching doesn't work for the same reason Socialism doesn't work. There's no incentive to excel if the guy flipping burgers gets paid the same as a highly skilled craftsman.
01-05-2021 02:25 PM
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