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Another sad showing by AAC
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Chappy Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-03-2021 07:14 PM)ken d Wrote:  2020 may be an aberrant year from which we should be wary of drawing conclusions. That being said, I am concerned that it may have as a lasting effect the normalization of "opting out" of post season play. Initially, players needed excuses for such actions, and 2020 gave us those in spades. But gradually, the need for an excuse other than "I just don't want to" tends to take over.

If the teams that play in the bowls aren't the same as the ones that played during the regular season, those games become more than ever just something for us to fill our holiday downtime with. I'm not sure we'll ever see fans return to bowls in person in anything like the kind of numbers that made them special events in the past.

And the very existence of a playoff just exaggerates that trend.

Agree with all of this.
01-03-2021 09:42 PM
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TripleA Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
They're bowl games. They don't count for jack unless they're the playoff games. There were players opting out right and left, being "injured," whatever...

Cracks me up that peeps brag when they win them and chastise others when they lose. Especially when they are selective with their outrage.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 01:18 AM by TripleA.)
01-04-2021 01:17 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-03-2021 09:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 12:00 PM)westwolf Wrote:  Only win by Memphis; Cincy folded in 2nd half. P6 my a**.

Well the Cincy coach and QB forgot about clock management the last 4 minutes. That cost them a win over one of the 4 most talented teams in the country. Otherwise, time would have run out before Georgia could score at the end.

ESPN says Cincy had a 99.9% chance to win with 1:47 to go. I sure thought it was over.

07-coffee3
01-04-2021 10:58 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 10:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 09:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 12:00 PM)westwolf Wrote:  Only win by Memphis; Cincy folded in 2nd half. P6 my a**.

Well the Cincy coach and QB forgot about clock management the last 4 minutes. That cost them a win over one of the 4 most talented teams in the country. Otherwise, time would have run out before Georgia could score at the end.

ESPN says Cincy had a 99.9% chance to win with 1:47 to go. I sure thought it was over.

07-coffee3

The win probability %'s are a joke. The algorithms are completely inaccurate in real game situations.
01-04-2021 11:04 AM
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leofrog Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 01:17 AM)TripleA Wrote:  They're bowl games. They don't count for jack unless they're the playoff games. There were players opting out right and left, being "injured," whatever...

Cracks me up that peeps brag when they win them and chastise others when they lose. Especially when they are selective with their outrage.

Like UCF claiming a bogus national championship after beating Auburn? Thanks for clearing that up.
01-04-2021 11:10 AM
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leofrog Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-03-2021 09:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 12:00 PM)westwolf Wrote:  Only win by Memphis; Cincy folded in 2nd half. P6 my a**.

Well the Cincy coach and QB forgot about clock management the last 4 minutes. That cost them a win over one of the 4 most talented teams in the country. Otherwise, time would have run out before Georgia could score at the end.

So, you’re saying the best G5 team couldn’t handle the pressure of big time football, thus cementing the argument that they don’t belong with P5 schools?
COGSCOGS
01-04-2021 11:12 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 11:04 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 10:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 09:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 12:00 PM)westwolf Wrote:  Only win by Memphis; Cincy folded in 2nd half. P6 my a**.

Well the Cincy coach and QB forgot about clock management the last 4 minutes. That cost them a win over one of the 4 most talented teams in the country. Otherwise, time would have run out before Georgia could score at the end.

ESPN says Cincy had a 99.9% chance to win with 1:47 to go. I sure thought it was over.

07-coffee3

The win probability %'s are a joke. The algorithms are completely inaccurate in real game situations.

Yeah, that's at least the 3rd "99.9%" chance-to-win team to lose this season.
01-04-2021 11:34 AM
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Post: #28
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 11:12 AM)leofrog Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 09:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 12:00 PM)westwolf Wrote:  Only win by Memphis; Cincy folded in 2nd half. P6 my a**.

Well the Cincy coach and QB forgot about clock management the last 4 minutes. That cost them a win over one of the 4 most talented teams in the country. Otherwise, time would have run out before Georgia could score at the end.

So, you’re saying the best G5 team couldn’t handle the pressure of big time football, thus cementing the argument that they don’t belong with P5 schools?
COGSCOGS

I'm saying the Cincinnati coach looked almost as bad as Les Miles did when he was at LSU.
01-04-2021 11:40 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 11:40 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 11:12 AM)leofrog Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 09:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 12:00 PM)westwolf Wrote:  Only win by Memphis; Cincy folded in 2nd half. P6 my a**.

Well the Cincy coach and QB forgot about clock management the last 4 minutes. That cost them a win over one of the 4 most talented teams in the country. Otherwise, time would have run out before Georgia could score at the end.

So, you’re saying the best G5 team couldn’t handle the pressure of big time football, thus cementing the argument that they don’t belong with P5 schools?
COGSCOGS

I'm saying the Cincinnati coach looked almost as bad as Les Miles did when he was at LSU.

Les Miles had some bad moments at LSU, but many more good ones, which is why for much of his tenure there he was head-hunted by other top programs and LSU kept having to bump his pay. I do agree though that clock management was not necessarily his strength.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 11:46 AM by quo vadis.)
01-04-2021 11:46 AM
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Post: #30
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 11:34 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 11:04 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 10:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 09:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 12:00 PM)westwolf Wrote:  Only win by Memphis; Cincy folded in 2nd half. P6 my a**.

Well the Cincy coach and QB forgot about clock management the last 4 minutes. That cost them a win over one of the 4 most talented teams in the country. Otherwise, time would have run out before Georgia could score at the end.

ESPN says Cincy had a 99.9% chance to win with 1:47 to go. I sure thought it was over.

07-coffee3

The win probability %'s are a joke. The algorithms are completely inaccurate in real game situations.

Yeah, that's at least the 3rd "99.9%" chance-to-win team to lose this season.

Texas was down 15 to Texas Tech with 2:38 left and won in OT. They were down 14 to Oklahoma was 3:29 left and lost in 3OT.
01-04-2021 11:46 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 11:46 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 11:34 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 11:04 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 10:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 09:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  Well the Cincy coach and QB forgot about clock management the last 4 minutes. That cost them a win over one of the 4 most talented teams in the country. Otherwise, time would have run out before Georgia could score at the end.

ESPN says Cincy had a 99.9% chance to win with 1:47 to go. I sure thought it was over.

07-coffee3

The win probability %'s are a joke. The algorithms are completely inaccurate in real game situations.

Yeah, that's at least the 3rd "99.9%" chance-to-win team to lose this season.

Texas was down 15 to Texas Tech with 2:38 left and won in OT. They were down 14 to Oklahoma was 3:29 left and lost in 3OT.

Another 99.9% blown game was Arizona State vs USC the first week of the PAC season.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 11:48 AM by quo vadis.)
01-04-2021 11:48 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: Another sad showing by AAC
More bowl wins than the ACC and PAC-12 combined. #P4
01-04-2021 01:22 PM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
Losing by 3 points to Georgia by their champ is miles more impressive than a champ losing by 3 to a 3rd year FBS program. Does anyone really believe Liberty would have stayed within 2 or 3 scores of Georgia. I don't. Maybe I am wrong, but I see Liberty and Coastal losing by 10-17 to Georgia.
01-04-2021 01:40 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 01:40 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Losing by 3 points to Georgia by their champ is miles more impressive than a champ losing by 3 to a 3rd year FBS program. Does anyone really believe Liberty would have stayed within 2 or 3 scores of Georgia. I don't. Maybe I am wrong, but I see Liberty and Coastal losing by 10-17 to Georgia.

On the eyeball test, Coastal Carolina and Liberty would only be mid-level in the SEC and Big 12. Yes, #2 Sun Belt ULL did beat Iowa St. and Arkansas St. beat Kansas St., but it was in the first week. Coastal Carolina did beat last place Kansas of the Big 12 by 15. But everyone in the Big 12 but Texas Tech beat Kansas by at least 21 and 6 of their 8 conference losses were by over 30. All but Texas Tech scored as many against Kansas as CCU and nobody gave up more points.

So I agree with you. CCU and Liberty could do well, but weren't quite at Cincinnati's level on a consistent basis.
01-04-2021 01:54 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 01:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 01:40 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Losing by 3 points to Georgia by their champ is miles more impressive than a champ losing by 3 to a 3rd year FBS program. Does anyone really believe Liberty would have stayed within 2 or 3 scores of Georgia. I don't. Maybe I am wrong, but I see Liberty and Coastal losing by 10-17 to Georgia.

On the eyeball test, Coastal Carolina and Liberty would only be mid-level in the SEC and Big 12. Yes, #2 Sun Belt ULL did beat Iowa St. and Arkansas St. beat Kansas St., but it was in the first week. Coastal Carolina did beat last place Kansas of the Big 12 by 15. But everyone in the Big 12 but Texas Tech beat Kansas by at least 21 and 6 of their 8 conference losses were by over 30. All but Texas Tech scored as many against Kansas as CCU and nobody gave up more points.

So I agree with you. CCU and Liberty could do well, but weren't quite at Cincinnati's level on a consistent basis.

I'd be shocked if Coastal or Liberty could finish higher than 7th in the Big 12 and maybe 11th in the SEC. They simply do not match up athletically and would get beaten down very quickly, IMO. They do not face the same kind of grind.

To an extent, that applies to AAC teams as well - a Tulsa team that was second best and took Cincy down to the buzzer in the AAC title game was beaten by a Mississippi State team that went 3-7 in the SEC. A team that lost about 18 guys to transfers and opt outs. Because Mississippi State still has more talent than Tulsa. Probably has more talent than Cincy. In the past 4 recruiting classes, 2017-2020, Mississippi State had 1 five-star and 22 four-star recruits, Cincy had 6 four-star recruits.

If anything, schools like Cincy and Coastal and San Jose State are able to reach far higher prominence in the polls and computers thanks to playing in G5 conferences. They are the best, so look good beating their conference foes. But they do not face the meatgrinders of playing in the better P5 conferences.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 02:08 PM by quo vadis.)
01-04-2021 02:07 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-03-2021 01:39 PM)NJMark Wrote:  Is it supposed to prove something that the bigger brothers beat the smaller brothers?

I wonder what might happen if the AAC had anywhere close to the same financial resources as the P5.

To be fair, the P5 has earned their power. But the current system prevents anyone else from earning it too.

There's nothing preventing the AAC from having more resources.

Resources have to be created. They are not doled out by a central authority.

The market has determined that the AAC programs are not as attractive to fans and donors. That could change in time, but these programs have to achieve it themselves.

Power schools get more TV revenue because their products are more attractive and thus draw more eyeballs...that makes them more attractive to TV networks because they need eyeballs to make money.

And it's not nearly as much about TV money as people think. TV revenue is less than half of what the typical Power program takes in. The monetary disparities would be just as significant if ESPN or the like didn't exist. In fact, large checks from TV companies are a relatively new thing in and of itself.
01-04-2021 02:09 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 02:09 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 01:39 PM)NJMark Wrote:  Is it supposed to prove something that the bigger brothers beat the smaller brothers?

I wonder what might happen if the AAC had anywhere close to the same financial resources as the P5.

To be fair, the P5 has earned their power. But the current system prevents anyone else from earning it too.

There's nothing preventing the AAC from having more resources.

Resources have to be created. They are not doled out by a central authority.

The market has determined that the AAC programs are not as attractive to fans and donors. That could change in time, but these programs have to achieve it themselves.

Power schools get more TV revenue because their products are more attractive and thus draw more eyeballs...that makes them more attractive to TV networks because they need eyeballs to make money.

And it's not nearly as much about TV money as people think. TV revenue is less than half of what the typical Power program takes in. The monetary disparities would be just as significant if ESPN or the like didn't exist. In fact, large checks from TV companies are a relatively new thing in and of itself.

That's true for the top 2/3 of the P5. Its not true for Washington St. and the like.
01-04-2021 02:12 PM
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Eichorst Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
Troll thread.

The AAC consistently produces a champion on the same level of other P5 champions. Cincy's showing against UGA shows they're roughly as competitive as UCF, and really, last year's Memphis team was similarly competitive.

The league has great coaches, great recruiting (relative to the rest of the G5), and one or two teams always separate themselves from the rest of the AAC pack each year.

I dunno what anyone else is really expecting?
01-04-2021 02:18 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-04-2021 02:18 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  Troll thread.

The AAC consistently produces a champion on the same level of other P5 champions.

The past three years, the top G5 team has lost to the 4th place SEC team, the 3rd place B1G team and the 4th place SEC team, respectively in NY6 bowls. That's not really showing you are on the same level as a P5 champion.

The push for 5/1/2 is IMO primarily an AAC push, as the AAC stands to benefit far more than any other conference. It would mean that probably 4 years in 5, the AAC places a team in the playoffs. Other G5 will go many years without getting in (no SBC or CUSA team has made the NY6 in seven years) so would be IMO fools to agree to this. Among the P5, the PAC would also benefit, as they struggle to get their champ in the current CFP. But that's about it.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 02:36 PM by quo vadis.)
01-04-2021 02:36 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
This argument never ceases to make me chuckle. Of course, this year's Cincy and Coastal Carolina teams (hypothetically) would not have done as well with an SEC schedule. But give a handful of select G5 programs membership to a power league and let them "recruit up" for a few years and perhaps they would do fairly well at that point. That is the "better hypothetical" to use because it provides context. The tired, generic point some of you make ... not so much.

I'm in a foul state given Cincy, Indiana and North Carolina lost their respective bowl games and, as such, I can't do something outlandish to celebrate what I was hoping would be three victories. We could have had on this board photos of Bill Dazzle in a compromised situation involving juggling torches, small mammals, S&M garb and Chinese folk music. This is the most significant "loss" related to the bowls. I feel badly for you lads for not getting to experience this.
01-04-2021 02:59 PM
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