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AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
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NoQuarterBrigade Offline
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Post: #21
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-03-2021 11:29 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC has a -0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance.

You were off slightly. Fixed it for you.
01-03-2021 11:39 PM
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Fishpro10987 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-03-2021 10:51 PM)mike012779 Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 10:13 PM)Coog82 Wrote:  Are you attempting to say the committee still has some credibility? They don’t.



0.0000000000000000% chance

Any possibility of a rounding error in that percentage?
01-03-2021 11:46 PM
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pvtlamb Offline
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Post: #23
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
Interesting articles in the WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-foo...1608562715

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...ppearances

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...ppearances

Only 11 different teams have been in the playoff. And the last "first" national champion was Florida in 1996. College Football is much more out of whack and top-heavy than College Basketball.

SEC is the only conference with three teams that have made it, and Georgia and LSU have only made it once.

PAC12 has Washington and Oregon, 1x

Big 12 with one; Oklahoma 4x

ACC: Clemson 6x, FSU 1x

Big 10: Ohio State 4x, Michigan State 1x

Notre Dame 2x (not counting them as ACC)

My point is that yes, AAC is getting screwed, but the way college football is financed, only a handful of teams in the P5 even have a shot let alone.

FWIW, 19 programs have made the Final 4 since 2014, with two from outside the P7, Loyola and Gonzaga.

I'm not sure how to describe these programs, but at least two are not part of College Basketball's hierarchy, Texas Tech and South Carolina.
01-03-2021 11:53 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #24
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-03-2021 11:53 PM)pvtlamb Wrote:  Interesting articles in the WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-foo...1608562715

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...ppearances

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...ppearances

Only 11 different teams have been in the playoff. And the last "first" national champion was Florida in 1996. College Football is much more out of whack and top-heavy than College Basketball.

SEC is the only conference with three teams that have made it, and Georgia and LSU have only made it once.

PAC12 has Washington and Oregon, 1x

Big 12 with one; Oklahoma 4x

ACC: Clemson 6x, FSU 1x

Big 10: Ohio State 4x, Michigan State 1x

Notre Dame 2x (not counting them as ACC)

My point is that yes, AAC is getting screwed, but the way college football is financed, only a handful of teams in the P5 even have a shot let alone.

Well, everyone has a shot, you just have to be good enough. I mean, if USC went undefeated, do you think they would miss the playoffs?

Teams like Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State have made the playoffs many times because they keep having fantastic seasons. Go 12-0 or 11-1 vs their schedules and anyone can make the playoffs.
01-04-2021 01:04 AM
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NoQuarterBrigade Offline
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Post: #25
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-04-2021 01:04 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 11:53 PM)pvtlamb Wrote:  Interesting articles in the WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-foo...1608562715

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...ppearances

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...ppearances

Only 11 different teams have been in the playoff. And the last "first" national champion was Florida in 1996. College Football is much more out of whack and top-heavy than College Basketball.

SEC is the only conference with three teams that have made it, and Georgia and LSU have only made it once.

PAC12 has Washington and Oregon, 1x

Big 12 with one; Oklahoma 4x

ACC: Clemson 6x, FSU 1x

Big 10: Ohio State 4x, Michigan State 1x

Notre Dame 2x (not counting them as ACC)

My point is that yes, AAC is getting screwed, but the way college football is financed, only a handful of teams in the P5 even have a shot let alone.

Well, everyone has a shot, you just have to be good enough. I mean, if USC went undefeated, do you think they would miss the playoffs?

Teams like Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State have made the playoffs many times because they keep having fantastic seasons. Go 12-0 or 11-1 vs their schedules and anyone can make the playoffs.

I hope you’re being sarcastic, because that is a flawed view. It is not a fair system. When Cincinnati for example, started their season, they were playing for access to a NY6 bowl. That is the ceiling for every G5 school at the beginning of the season and it should not be. Coastal, another undefeated G5 team was ranked higher than UNC, yet they were not allied access to a NY6 bowl because of (A) Cincy was highest ranked G5 school, and (B), because of who they are, a G5 school from the Sunbelt Conference. Why were they not allowed to play in a NY6 bowl? They were ranked higher than UNC. Yet because of who they are, and the current system they were passed over by the committee and UNC got the nod. The whole FBS/CFP is a complete mess. It needs a major overhaul. There are way too many bowls that are meaningless and unwatchable. The CFP committee needs to be removed and the playoff should be expanded and decided by algorithms with a set of rules and guidelines that allow every member of the FBS access to a path to national title. It should not be placed in the hands of a committee filled with individuals who already have biased opinion.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 07:45 AM by NoQuarterBrigade.)
01-04-2021 07:24 AM
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Z-Fly Online
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Post: #26
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-03-2021 11:20 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 08:24 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  OK, if we go undefeated next year too, which means we would have won at Indiana and at Notre Dame, I think they would have to put us in. If they didn't then they would lose all credibility that all of FBS is eligible for the CFP.

The only exception would be if four P5 champions were all undefeated. Then they obviously would stick it to us.

Really it would just establish that Notre Dame and Indiana were not going to make the playoff. Being undefeated as a G5 school does not really mean anything. It only means something to lose to us. Our only function as G5 schools are to play spoilers. We literally have no chance in H-E-double hockey sticks to make the playoff under the current format.

That's not true. Iowa State was still in the conversation this year.
01-04-2021 08:39 AM
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NoQuarterBrigade Offline
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Post: #27
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-04-2021 08:39 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 11:20 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 08:24 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  OK, if we go undefeated next year too, which means we would have won at Indiana and at Notre Dame, I think they would have to put us in. If they didn't then they would lose all credibility that all of FBS is eligible for the CFP.

The only exception would be if four P5 champions were all undefeated. Then they obviously would stick it to us.

Really it would just establish that Notre Dame and Indiana were not going to make the playoff. Being undefeated as a G5 school does not really mean anything. It only means something to lose to us. Our only function as G5 schools are to play spoilers. We literally have no chance in H-E-double hockey sticks to make the playoff under the current format.

That's not true. Iowa State was still in the conversation this year.
They were in the conversation, but did they really ever have a chance to be in the playoff? Did they?
01-04-2021 08:49 AM
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Post: #28
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia...amp;nofb=1]
01-04-2021 08:52 AM
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Z-Fly Online
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Post: #29
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-04-2021 08:49 AM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 08:39 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 11:20 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 08:24 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  OK, if we go undefeated next year too, which means we would have won at Indiana and at Notre Dame, I think they would have to put us in. If they didn't then they would lose all credibility that all of FBS is eligible for the CFP.

The only exception would be if four P5 champions were all undefeated. Then they obviously would stick it to us.

Really it would just establish that Notre Dame and Indiana were not going to make the playoff. Being undefeated as a G5 school does not really mean anything. It only means something to lose to us. Our only function as G5 schools are to play spoilers. We literally have no chance in H-E-double hockey sticks to make the playoff under the current format.

That's not true. Iowa State was still in the conversation this year.
They were in the conversation, but did they really ever have a chance to be in the playoff? Did they?

If they would have beat Oklahoma in the Championship game, I think they had a real chance. In reality they were moved up to make Oklahoma look better.

It was mostly a joke saying Cincinnati could be eliminated, but Notre Dame could not.
01-04-2021 08:57 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #30
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-04-2021 07:24 AM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 01:04 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-03-2021 11:53 PM)pvtlamb Wrote:  Interesting articles in the WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-foo...1608562715

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...ppearances

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...ppearances

Only 11 different teams have been in the playoff. And the last "first" national champion was Florida in 1996. College Football is much more out of whack and top-heavy than College Basketball.

SEC is the only conference with three teams that have made it, and Georgia and LSU have only made it once.

PAC12 has Washington and Oregon, 1x

Big 12 with one; Oklahoma 4x

ACC: Clemson 6x, FSU 1x

Big 10: Ohio State 4x, Michigan State 1x

Notre Dame 2x (not counting them as ACC)

My point is that yes, AAC is getting screwed, but the way college football is financed, only a handful of teams in the P5 even have a shot let alone.

Well, everyone has a shot, you just have to be good enough. I mean, if USC went undefeated, do you think they would miss the playoffs?

Teams like Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State have made the playoffs many times because they keep having fantastic seasons. Go 12-0 or 11-1 vs their schedules and anyone can make the playoffs.

I hope you’re being sarcastic, because that is a flawed view. It is not a fair system. When Cincinnati for example, started their season, they were playing for access to a NY6 bowl. That is the ceiling for every G5 school at the beginning of the season and it should not be. Coastal, another undefeated G5 team was ranked higher than UNC, yet they were not allied access to a NY6 bowl because of (A) Cincy was highest ranked G5 school, and (B), because of who they are, a G5 school from the Sunbelt Conference. Why were they not allowed to play in a NY6 bowl? They were ranked higher than UNC. Yet because of who they are, and the current system they were passed over by the committee and UNC got the nod. The whole FBS/CFP is a complete mess. It needs a major overhaul. There are way too many bowls that are meaningless and unwatchable. The CFP committee needs to be removed and the playoff should be expanded and decided by algorithms with a set of rules and guidelines that allow every member of the FBS access to a path to national title. It should not be placed in the hands of a committee filled with individuals who already have biased opinion.

You make a couple points here.

1) About making an NY6 bowl, of course the system is not formally equal. As you note, the P5 conference champs automatically make an NY6 bowl game no matter how bad and low-ranked they are. That hurts G5 teams, like Coastal, that are ranked higher. FWIW it also hurts P5 teams that are ranked higher, e.g., North Carolina and Oregon were not only ranked behind Coastal, they were also ranked lower than Indiana and in Oregon's case, some other P5 schools, but got in to an NY6 ahead of them too.

But that's because the bowls want to sign contracts with some conferences but not others. Complaining about that is like complaining that ESPN is willing to pay the ACC $25m a year and the AAC just $7m a year. That's based on market forces so no real way to change that, IMO. FWIW, this contractual arrangement helps the G5 as well - in several of the CFP years, lower-ranked G5 teams made the NY6 over higher-ranked P5 teams, because of the G5 auto-bid. Memphis in 2019 and WMU in 2016 would not have made the NY6 if we had just taken the top 12 teams with no auto-bids for anyone.

2) About the playoffs, yes, it is extremely hard for a G5 team to make the playoffs. You would need a perfect storm with OOC games against top P5, like Houston had in 2016, and maybe not then.

But that has less to do with prejudice vs the G5 on the part of the committee and more with the size of the playoff field. The playoff is only four teams out of 130, so you can be really, really good and still not deserve the playoffs. Cincy and Oklahoma were very good teams, so was Texas AM. None were worthy of the playoffs. Again, this doesn't just affect G5, it affects P5 as well.

G5 fans like to look at the playoff situation from the perspective of bias against the G5 on the part of the committee. That's because it's more viscerally satisfying to get angry at people than at rules. But truth is, the biggest nemesis is the size of the playoff field. We know it's not committee bias, because everyone else keeps the G5 out as well - that is, if we relied on the AP poll, the old BCS formula, or just all computers, Cincy would not have made the playoffs either. Neither would UCF in 2017 or 2018. None we ranked in the top 4 by any of those.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2021 11:17 AM by quo vadis.)
01-04-2021 11:08 AM
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shere khan Offline
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Post: #31
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-03-2021 11:29 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  AAC has a 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance.

Just like every team that hasnt already been in it.
01-04-2021 01:40 PM
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Poseidon Offline
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Post: #32
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
They dont hate the G5, they just love love love the blue bloods. Them putting the blue bloods at the top is really kinda psychological wish fulfillment thing to them. They watch them more closely during the season and have went to OSU and OU game before soaked up there culturew and been spoiled. How many Houston, UCF, or Cincinatti games have they been to or made the focus of their weekend. Their mindser is that of fans who convince themselves they are objective. Objective rules or computers need to be the main cirteria.
01-04-2021 01:56 PM
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Stickboy46 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
2021: Go undefeated ... max out at #8
2022: Go undefeated again ... max out at #7
2023: Go undefeated again ... max out at #6
2024: Go undefeated again ... max out at #5
2023: Go undefeated again ... get the #4 slot ... only to receive a late year post-season ban due to a coach talking to a recruit for 30 seconds too long on a phone call back in 2020 ... Notre Dame assumes the 4 spot
2024: Go undefeated again .. they begrudgingly allow the #4 spot .. but decide it is now a home game for the #1 team this year only.

There is the path to the playoff.
01-04-2021 02:27 PM
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Greenwavedrownsacat Offline
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Post: #34
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
Tulane’s schedule is ridiculous next year. Oklahoma ( in New Orleans !), @ Ole Miss, UAB, and then pretty much every good team in the aac (UCF, Cinci, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, Houston).
01-04-2021 02:34 PM
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RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-02-2021 09:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  No greater than the chances of Bill Dazzle — a hobbyist drummer — ever being confused with Art Blakey, Buddy Rich, Papa Jo Jones, John Bonham, Neil Peart, Philly Joe Jones and/or Keith Moon.

Or Carl Palmer.
01-04-2021 03:04 PM
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JHS55 Online
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Post: #36
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-02-2021 09:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  No greater than the chances of Bill Dazzle — a hobbyist drummer — ever being confused with Art Blakey, Buddy Rich, Papa Jo Jones, John Bonham, Neil Peart, Philly Joe Jones and/or Keith Moon.
you didn’t mention ginger baker or bill ward...
01-04-2021 05:13 PM
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Post: #37
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-04-2021 05:13 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  
(01-02-2021 09:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  No greater than the chances of Bill Dazzle — a hobbyist drummer — ever being confused with Art Blakey, Buddy Rich, Papa Jo Jones, John Bonham, Neil Peart, Philly Joe Jones and/or Keith Moon.
you didn’t mention ginger baker or bill ward...

Nor John "Stumpy" Pepys nor Mick Shrimpton
01-04-2021 07:36 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #38
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-04-2021 07:36 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 05:13 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  
(01-02-2021 09:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  No greater than the chances of Bill Dazzle — a hobbyist drummer — ever being confused with Art Blakey, Buddy Rich, Papa Jo Jones, John Bonham, Neil Peart, Philly Joe Jones and/or Keith Moon.
you didn’t mention ginger baker or bill ward...

Nor John "Stumpy" Pepys nor Mick Shrimpton

I'd take Max Roach and Elvin Jones over any of the above.
01-04-2021 08:18 PM
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Post: #39
RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-04-2021 03:04 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  
(01-02-2021 09:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  No greater than the chances of Bill Dazzle — a hobbyist drummer — ever being confused with Art Blakey, Buddy Rich, Papa Jo Jones, John Bonham, Neil Peart, Philly Joe Jones and/or Keith Moon.

Or Carl Palmer.


I saw Carl Palmer at the Franklin Theater a few years ago. Outstanding show. He is a phenomenal talent.

Worth watching if you have not:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouJetiHNAv0
01-04-2021 10:56 PM
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RE: AAC team chances at playoff in 2021...
(01-04-2021 05:13 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  
(01-02-2021 09:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  No greater than the chances of Bill Dazzle — a hobbyist drummer — ever being confused with Art Blakey, Buddy Rich, Papa Jo Jones, John Bonham, Neil Peart, Philly Joe Jones and/or Keith Moon.
you didn’t mention ginger baker or bill ward...

Ah, I forgot Ginger Baker. The documentary Beware of Mr. Baker is quite interesting.

As to William Thomas Ward ... a very underrated drummer. Full props. I always enjoyed Black Sabbath's first few albums back in the day.
01-04-2021 10:59 PM
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