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NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #1
NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/3057...-expansion

31 is wonky so 32 is the probable goal. The NHL just did it so the NBA is next. If 32, who gets it? Seattle? Kansas City? Pittsburgh? Vancouver? Montreal? St. Louis? Cincinnati? Buffalo?

I’d prefer Seattle and St. Louis.

Western Conference
Pacific: Seattle, Portland, Golden State, Sacramento, Los Angeles (L), Los Angeles (C ), Phoenix, Utah
Southwest: Denver, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, New Orleans, Memphis, St. Louis

Eastern Conference
Atlantic: Minnesota, Milwaukee, Chicago, Indiana, Detroit, Cleveland, Miami, Orlando
Coastal: Toronto, Boston, New York, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Washington, Charlotte, Atlanta
(This post was last modified: 12-21-2020 08:03 PM by BePcr07.)
12-21-2020 07:51 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
No reason to expect it to happen soon. Silver's comment was essentially just putting up a flag to find out over the next couple of years if there are groups that are both ready to put up an expansion fee of more than a billion dollars and have an arena, and have a really good financial arrangement with the arena.

What's the best financial arrangement after you've already coughed up a billion-dollar expansion fee? Owning the arena yourself is best (Knicks, Warriors, Nuggets, Wizards, also Clippers if they get their new arena built), owning the NBA and NHL teams in the same arena is second best (Knicks, Nuggets, and Wizards again), a sweetheart rent deal that is almost rent-free is third-best, anything else might not work for the team owner.

Who fits any of those categories? There aren't many fits if you also include the size of the home market.

The Anaheim Ducks owner would fit, and he's worth $6 billion, but there isn't going to be a third NBA team in SoCal, even though it's the 2nd largest media market in the US.

The Seattle Kraken ownership also operates the arena, so if they buy an NBA team, they fit. Seattle is the 13th largest media market in the US. (Market size rankings: https://mediatracks.com/resources/nielse...ings-2020/ )

Some other top 30 media markets:

If the Pittsburgh Penguins ownership has enough money, maybe. Their arena is only 10 years old, though they don't own it. The lead owner is worth "only" $2 billion, so can he really ante up for a second team?

The St. Louis Blues play in an arena that's almost 30 years old, and they don't own it, and the ownership group is a large group put together 8 years ago to buy the Blues for $130 million. That's not a group that will put up over a billion to buy an NBA team. And it's more difficult to make money selling tickets in an older arena, with fewer luxury boxes and little or no other "premium seating".

The Nashville Predators ownership group looks a lot like the St. Louis group -- a large group that paid $190 million for the NHL team. Their arena, also not owned by the team, is also more than 25 years old. They probably also don't have enough capital to buy an NBA expansion franchise.

Anyplace else seems even less likely, unless there is someone with enough money to build or buy their own arena and also buy an expansion team. The farther down you go in market size, the less local media money the team gets.
12-21-2020 09:55 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #3
RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
My idea, which I shared awhile back:

Pacific
Seattle
Portland
LAL
LAC
GS
Sacramento
Las Vegas
Phoenix

Southwest
Denver
Utah
OKC
Dallas
Houston
San Antonio
New Orleans
Memphis

Central
Minnesota
Chicago
Milwaukee
Detroit
Indiana
Cleveland
Toronto
Atlanta

Atlantic
Boston
NYK
Brooklyn
Washington
Philadelphia
Charlotte
Orlando
Miami

I'd also reduce the season to 76 games
12-22-2020 12:07 AM
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UofMark Online
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Post: #4
RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
If the new teams are in the west, then Memphis needs to go to the Eastern Conference. Currently by geography, Memphis is the only city entirely east of the Mississippi River while being the easternmost Western Conference team. Oddly enough if Memphis was in the east, it'd be the westernmost Eastern Conference team.
12-22-2020 11:27 AM
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Erictelevision Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
The T-Wolves are BRUTALLY remote from their division rivals. Memphis is MUCH closer to their's.
(This post was last modified: 12-22-2020 12:26 PM by Erictelevision.)
12-22-2020 11:57 AM
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Phlipper33 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
MLB will be soon to expand to 32 teams as well. The owners need to recoup the money they lost year, along with the money they'll likely lose during a 2022 strike/lockout, which seems highly likely at this point. There's speculation aplenty on starting the 2021 season on time, it may get reduced and fans still likely not in attendance or limited attendance for at least the first half of the season, and then the current CBA expires next offseason.

Once they get fans back allowed at 100% and they get a new CBA, expect the expansion announcement then.
12-22-2020 02:10 PM
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PirateTreasureNC Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
Seattle should get something to replace the Sonics but I doubt that new arena for the Kraken (NHL) will be set up to convert to basketball afterwards....
12-22-2020 04:50 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
(12-22-2020 04:50 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote:  Seattle should get something to replace the Sonics but I doubt that new arena for the Kraken (NHL) will be set up to convert to basketball afterwards....

The arena is set up for basketball as well as hockey, they even have a mock-up photo of a basketball game on the arena website.

But will the Seattle arena operators/NHL owners let an NBA team have a lease at the arena if they aren't chosen as the NBA team owners?
12-22-2020 09:27 PM
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
(12-21-2020 07:51 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/3057...-expansion

31 is wonky so 32 is the probable goal. The NHL just did it so the NBA is next. If 32, who gets it? Seattle? Kansas City? Pittsburgh? Vancouver? Montreal? St. Louis? Cincinnati? Buffalo?

I’d prefer Seattle and St. Louis.

Western Conference
Pacific: Seattle, Portland, Golden State, Sacramento, Los Angeles (L), Los Angeles (C ), Phoenix, Utah
Southwest: Denver, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, New Orleans, Memphis, St. Louis

Eastern Conference
Atlantic: Minnesota, Milwaukee, Chicago, Indiana, Detroit, Cleveland, Miami, Orlando
Coastal: Toronto, Boston, New York, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Washington, Charlotte, Atlanta

I agree that an odd number of teams should be avoided if possible, but I should note that for 24 straight seasons (1980-2004), the NBA maintained an odd number of teams, this in spite of expanding 3 times during that stretch (each time they added 2 teams, retaining the odd total number).
(This post was last modified: 12-22-2020 09:41 PM by Nerdlinger.)
12-22-2020 09:38 PM
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chargeradio Offline
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Post: #10
RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
I agree, 31 teams is not a big deal. And if the NBA ever wants to scrap the conference format, this would be the time to do it:

Pacific - Seattle*, Portland, Golden State, Sacramento, LA Clippers, LA Lakers
West - Phoenix, Utah, Denver, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City
North - Minnesota, Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, Indiana, Cleveland
South - New Orleans, Memphis, Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, Miami
Atlantic - Toronto, New York, Brooklyn. Boston, Philadelphia, Washington

For everyone but the West, they play everyone twice (60 games), then their division rivals another 4 times each (20 games). This is only 80 games, so you can do a home-and-away with another team to get to 82 games.

For the West, they play everyone twice (60 games), then their division rivals another 3 or 4 times each (22 games)
12-23-2020 07:00 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
(12-23-2020 07:00 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I agree, 31 teams is not a big deal. And if the NBA ever wants to scrap the conference format, this would be the time to do it:

Pacific - Seattle*, Portland, Golden State, Sacramento, LA Clippers, LA Lakers
West - Phoenix, Utah, Denver, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City
North - Minnesota, Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, Indiana, Cleveland
South - New Orleans, Memphis, Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, Miami
Atlantic - Toronto, New York, Brooklyn. Boston, Philadelphia, Washington

For everyone but the West, they play everyone twice (60 games), then their division rivals another 4 times each (20 games). This is only 80 games, so you can do a home-and-away with another team to get to 82 games.

For the West, they play everyone twice (60 games), then their division rivals another 3 or 4 times each (22 games)

Will never happen. There will never be a format that includes a single playoff bracket for the entire league with teams seeded 1-16. The current Eastern conference teams will never give up their guarantee of half of the playoff spots and one of the places in the Finals.
12-23-2020 08:30 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #12
RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
I'd go with Kansas City as the 32nd team. They have a relatively new arena and wouldn't have to share it with an NHL team.

Philadelphia, New York, Brooklyn, Boston
Washington, Detroit, Toronto, Cleveland
Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, Miami
Chicago, Milwaukee, Indiana, Minnesota
(Boston and Washington could be swapped but I'd want the Celtics with the 76ers and Knicks).

Memphis, New Orleans, Kansas City, Oklahoma City
Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix
Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State, Sacramento
Seattle, Portland, Utah, Denver
12-27-2020 04:54 PM
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TardisCaptain Offline
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Post: #13
RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
(12-27-2020 04:54 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I'd go with Kansas City as the 32nd team. They have a relatively new arena and wouldn't have to share it with an NHL team.

Philadelphia, New York, Brooklyn, Boston
Washington, Detroit, Toronto, Cleveland
Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, Miami
Chicago, Milwaukee, Indiana, Minnesota
(Boston and Washington could be swapped but I'd want the Celtics with the 76ers and Knicks).

Memphis, New Orleans, Kansas City, Oklahoma City
Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix
Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State, Sacramento
Seattle, Portland, Utah, Denver

Swap Denver and Phoenix and I think you've got it.
12-29-2020 06:09 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
Tardis: I co-sign on your analysis. I ALSO agree that you can't split up the ancient northeast rivals.
01-01-2021 03:16 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
(12-27-2020 04:54 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I'd go with Kansas City as the 32nd team. They have a relatively new arena and wouldn't have to share it with an NHL team.

Philadelphia, New York, Brooklyn, Boston
Washington, Detroit, Toronto, Cleveland
Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, Miami
Chicago, Milwaukee, Indiana, Minnesota
(Boston and Washington could be swapped but I'd want the Celtics with the 76ers and Knicks).

Memphis, New Orleans, Kansas City, Oklahoma City
Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix
Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State, Sacramento
Seattle, Portland, Utah, Denver

Any reason for 8x4 rather than 4x8?

If 4x8...

Western Conference
West: Seattle, Portland, Golden State, Sacramento, Los Angeles L, Los Angeles C, Phoenix, Utah
South: Denver, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, New Orleans, Memphis

Eastern Conference
North: Minnesota, Milwaukee, Chicago, Indiana, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto, Atlanta
East: Miami, Orlando, Charlotte, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Brooklyn, Boston
01-02-2021 01:21 AM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
Given the NBA's asking price, expansion isn't happening any time soon. It's laughable to think they could get this much:

Quote:Within the league office, sources said officials have floated the price tag of $2.5 billion each for two expansion teams in the near future.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...-expansion
01-05-2021 01:49 PM
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
(01-05-2021 01:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Given the NBA's asking price, expansion isn't happening any time soon. It's laughable to think they could get this much:

Quote:Within the league office, sources said officials have floated the price tag of $2.5 billion each for two expansion teams in the near future.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...-expansion

I dunno, there are a bunch of excessively wealthy individuals out there who might still want in.
01-05-2021 02:47 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
(01-05-2021 02:47 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(01-05-2021 01:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Given the NBA's asking price, expansion isn't happening any time soon. It's laughable to think they could get this much:

Quote:Within the league office, sources said officials have floated the price tag of $2.5 billion each for two expansion teams in the near future.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...-expansion

I dunno, there are a bunch of excessively wealthy individuals out there who might still want in.

As that article mentions, the Minnesota owner keeps stalling and putting his franchise on sale and back off sale, apparently because he can't get $1.5 billion from anyone who would commit to keep the team in Minnesota.

Seattle's media market (#13 in the US) is only slightly larger than Minneapolis' (#15). Minnesota has MLB, NFL, NBA, and NHL teams. If Seattle gets an NBA team, they will also have all four of those. If an NBA team in a crowded Minneapolis sports market can't get $1.5 billion, is an NBA team in a crowded Seattle market worth more? Maybe the value of an NBA franchise is more in Seattle, because Seattle loved the Sonics while Minnesota is "the state of hockey". But not $1 billion more.

And if an NBA team in a market the size of Seattle is worth, at most, between $1.5 and 2 billion, how much less would it be worth in a smaller market? Smaller markets mean less money from local TV, less money from corporate sponsorships, and usually lower ticket prices than teams in the largest markets charge. Las Vegas is the #39 media market and has less than half as many people as Seattle or Minneapolis-St Paul, and already has new NFL and NHL teams competing for money in a market that isn't very wealthy. Markets larger than Vegas but smaller than Seattle that don't have NBA teams include Pittsburgh (#24), St. Louis (#23), and Nashville (#28), but all three already have NHL teams and at least one of MLB and NFL. For markets that size, the best opportunity for financial success is to be the only "major" pro sports franchise in the market, like Sacramento (#20) or Salt Lake City (#30).

So, you're right that there are a few people who are wealthy enough, but the NBA would be counting on a few out of that group making decisions that make no economic sense.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2021 03:56 PM by Wedge.)
01-05-2021 03:53 PM
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EPJr2 Offline
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
Report: Seattle and Las Vegas expected to bid for expansion teams with price possibly starting at $2.5 billion each
https://ahnfiredigital.com/nba/report-se...lion-each/
01-05-2021 07:43 PM
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RE: NBA Expansion Considered by Adam Silver
(01-05-2021 03:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-05-2021 02:47 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(01-05-2021 01:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Given the NBA's asking price, expansion isn't happening any time soon. It's laughable to think they could get this much:

Quote:Within the league office, sources said officials have floated the price tag of $2.5 billion each for two expansion teams in the near future.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...-expansion

I dunno, there are a bunch of excessively wealthy individuals out there who might still want in.

As that article mentions, the Minnesota owner keeps stalling and putting his franchise on sale and back off sale, apparently because he can't get $1.5 billion from anyone who would commit to keep the team in Minnesota.

Seattle's media market (#13 in the US) is only slightly larger than Minneapolis' (#15). Minnesota has MLB, NFL, NBA, and NHL teams. If Seattle gets an NBA team, they will also have all four of those. If an NBA team in a crowded Minneapolis sports market can't get $1.5 billion, is an NBA team in a crowded Seattle market worth more? Maybe the value of an NBA franchise is more in Seattle, because Seattle loved the Sonics while Minnesota is "the state of hockey". But not $1 billion more.

And if an NBA team in a market the size of Seattle is worth, at most, between $1.5 and 2 billion, how much less would it be worth in a smaller market? Smaller markets mean less money from local TV, less money from corporate sponsorships, and usually lower ticket prices than teams in the largest markets charge. Las Vegas is the #39 media market and has less than half as many people as Seattle or Minneapolis-St Paul, and already has new NFL and NHL teams competing for money in a market that isn't very wealthy. Markets larger than Vegas but smaller than Seattle that don't have NBA teams include Pittsburgh (#24), St. Louis (#23), and Nashville (#28), but all three already have NHL teams and at least one of MLB and NFL. For markets that size, the best opportunity for financial success is to be the only "major" pro sports franchise in the market, like Sacramento (#20) or Salt Lake City (#30).

So, you're right that there are a few people who are wealthy enough, but the NBA would be counting on a few out of that group making decisions that make no economic sense.

The NBA has been making a concerted effort to tap international markets. Unlike American football, basketball is actually fairly popular in most of the world. There are numerous pro leagues around the globe. I'm assuming a little bit, but it seems to be second only to soccer as far as worldwide popularity of a team sport.

The EPL has made a fortune by selling broadcast rights all over the planet. It wouldn't exactly be an apple to apples comparison, but the NBA is the best league in the world. That will command a premium in any market where basketball is relatively popular.

With the expansion of the G League and the willingness to invest in other ventures, it makes sense that their revenue streams are growing globally and not just based on American TV. Or at least, they have reason to expect that revenue stream to grow significantly in the future.

With that said, the NBA got a monster TV deal last time. Their ratings have been a little shaky this year, but that basically applies to everyone. Either way, I bet their international TV rights have grown. Not that I've looked at the numbers...

An NBA franchise could be worth a lot in the same manner that major soccer clubs have attracted foreign investors. The specific American market is still relevant, but less so if we're talking about selling the product globally. Perhaps the Timberwolves' issues come down to the restriction on keeping the team local. Minnesota is a great market, but it's very cold which would depress ticket sales. Of course, that and basketball is second place to hockey.

That and regionally speaking, Minneapolis is not surrounded by other cities of decent size or event states of decent size. The regional broadcast rights would be important as far as determining the overall value of the TV market. The question then becomes, how many people outside Minneapolis care about pro teams based in that city? My guess is very few. That wouldn't be a problem unique to Minnesota, but it has to be factored into the value.
01-06-2021 03:37 AM
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