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Boise St looking to move on from MWC
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #561
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 01:38 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

The long game on that idea is arguable. BYU tends to get itself into situations where, once they lose a couple of games, they all of a sudden don't have anything to play for. Not a knock on their teams. Losing 2+ games happens to the vast majority of teams the vast majority of years. Teams in conferences can still play to win their division, then potentially play for a conference title. Those last two steps are out the door for BYU most years. They are often locked into the Potato Bowl by week 5.

Continuing to have something/anything to play for creates more interest and intrigue in the years (most years) that you're not in the running for the CFP.

Fast forward a few years into an 8-team playoff situation. Being in a conference might give them a better shot to get into the top 8, not only because they can add a CCG to their resume, but because playing meaningful games in the back half of all the other years helped their recruiting.

Just my $.02

Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.

I a 5-1-2 comes to pass, where the top G5 champ as a guaranteed slot in the playoff--I think BYU would have to look seriously at joining a conference.

I think so too. I think Boise and BYU would try to game the system and both join the AAC (along with 1-3 other western teams) to create a conference that would take the G5 slot probably 9 out of 10 years.
01-07-2021 05:37 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #562
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 05:37 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 01:38 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

The long game on that idea is arguable. BYU tends to get itself into situations where, once they lose a couple of games, they all of a sudden don't have anything to play for. Not a knock on their teams. Losing 2+ games happens to the vast majority of teams the vast majority of years. Teams in conferences can still play to win their division, then potentially play for a conference title. Those last two steps are out the door for BYU most years. They are often locked into the Potato Bowl by week 5.

Continuing to have something/anything to play for creates more interest and intrigue in the years (most years) that you're not in the running for the CFP.

Fast forward a few years into an 8-team playoff situation. Being in a conference might give them a better shot to get into the top 8, not only because they can add a CCG to their resume, but because playing meaningful games in the back half of all the other years helped their recruiting.

Just my $.02

Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.

I a 5-1-2 comes to pass, where the top G5 champ as a guaranteed slot in the playoff--I think BYU would have to look seriously at joining a conference.

I think so too. I think Boise and BYU would try to game the system and both join the AAC (along with 1-3 other western teams) to create a conference that would take the G5 slot probably 9 out of 10 years.

If we ever joined the AAC, that would be ideal for us.

If Boise St, BYU + 1 = Air Force

East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Temple, Tulane
West: Air Force, Boise St, BYU, Houston, Navy, SMU, Tulsa

If Boise St, BYU + 3 = Air Force, Colorado St, San Diego St

East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, Temple, Tulane
West: Air Force, Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Navy, San Diego St, SMU, Tulsa
01-07-2021 05:55 PM
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PicksUp Offline
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Post: #563
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

BYU+Boise and San Diego St = P6

Once the playoffs go to 8 teams and G5 gets an automatic bid the AAC champ will get a seat at the table.
Book it.g5 bid is code for AAC bid. While theyve had the NY6 bid for 5 of 6 years now, if they go P6 then they will always have the slot.
01-07-2021 06:38 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #564
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 06:38 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

BYU+Boise and San Diego St = P6

Once the playoffs go to 8 teams and G5 gets an automatic bid the AAC champ will get a seat at the table.
Book it.g5 bid is code for AAC bid. While they've had the NY6 bid for 5 of 6 years now, if they go P6 then they will always have the slot.

BYU + Boise and Sad Diego St do not make the AAC a P6 conference. They make it a slightly better G5 conference. And, despite being a little stronger, that combo could actually reduce the chances for an AAC champion to make either a 4 team or 8 team playoff.

An undefeated G5 champion will always have the inside track on an NY6 bid under current rules. The addition of these schools could very well reduce the chances that the AAC champ would get through a season unbeaten, opening the door for a weaker (but unbeaten) champion from one of the other G5 conferences. And if there are no unbeaten G5 champs, then the AAC champ' chances of getting the bid are no better than they already are.

So, with so little upside, is it really worth adding the logistical difficulties of having schools in four different time zones?
01-07-2021 08:03 PM
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Post: #565
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
BYU won’t join a G5 conference for one reason only: the University of Utah.

BYU won’t have on the schedule the likes of Temple, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, the Florida twins, etc while Utah plays a Pac-12 schedule. Their ego won’t allow it. The best thing they can do is play a semi national schedule with P5, MWC schools and some independents. Their schedule in 2020 (before the COVID-19 cancellations) looked great.

And please save the “but the Pac-12 sucks”. That’s not the point. The point is the Pac-12 is part of the cartel. BYU and whatever G5 conference posters on this board want BYU to be part of is outside looking in. They won’t admit Utah has already passed them by so independence is the only option until a P5 comes calling.
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2021 09:07 PM by UTEPDallas.)
01-07-2021 09:05 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #566
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 08:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 06:38 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

BYU+Boise and San Diego St = P6

Once the playoffs go to 8 teams and G5 gets an automatic bid the AAC champ will get a seat at the table.
Book it.g5 bid is code for AAC bid. While they've had the NY6 bid for 5 of 6 years now, if they go P6 then they will always have the slot.

BYU + Boise and Sad Diego St do not make the AAC a P6 conference. They make it a slightly better G5 conference. And, despite being a little stronger, that combo could actually reduce the chances for an AAC champion to make either a 4 team or 8 team playoff.

An undefeated G5 champion will always have the inside track on an NY6 bid under current rules. The addition of these schools could very well reduce the chances that the AAC champ would get through a season unbeaten, opening the door for a weaker (but unbeaten) champion from one of the other G5 conferences. And if there are no unbeaten G5 champs, then the AAC champ' chances of getting the bid are no better than they already are.

So, with so little upside, is it really worth adding the logistical difficulties of having schools in four different time zones?

Absolutely. Had Cincinnati lost to Tulsa in the AAC title game, then Coastal would have been the “G5 Champ” or whatever nonsense they want to call it.
01-07-2021 11:12 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #567
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 08:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 06:38 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

BYU+Boise and San Diego St = P6

Once the playoffs go to 8 teams and G5 gets an automatic bid the AAC champ will get a seat at the table.
Book it.g5 bid is code for AAC bid. While they've had the NY6 bid for 5 of 6 years now, if they go P6 then they will always have the slot.

BYU + Boise and Sad Diego St do not make the AAC a P6 conference. They make it a slightly better G5 conference. And, despite being a little stronger, that combo could actually reduce the chances for an AAC champion to make either a 4 team or 8 team playoff.

An undefeated G5 champion will always have the inside track on an NY6 bid under current rules. The addition of these schools could very well reduce the chances that the AAC champ would get through a season unbeaten, opening the door for a weaker (but unbeaten) champion from one of the other G5 conferences. And if there are no unbeaten G5 champs, then the AAC champ' chances of getting the bid are no better than they already are.

So, with so little upside, is it really worth adding the logistical difficulties of having schools in four different time zones?

No--not a P5---but a very solid P6. It might mean a raise, a unique identity as the only college "national conference", and the ability to offer inventory in any time zone.
For national broadcast or cable network, having a "national league" that offers a rooting interest in almost every region and timezone of the nation--including most of the top 10 TV markets---could be a very attractive TV property. Not SEC attractive of course---but maybe somewhere between MLS/Premier League money and Pac-12 money (say 15 million per team--give or take a few million).
01-08-2021 01:44 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #568
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 06:38 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

BYU+Boise and San Diego St = P6

Once the playoffs go to 8 teams and G5 gets an automatic bid the AAC champ will get a seat at the table.
Book it.g5 bid is code for AAC bid. While theyve had the NY6 bid for 5 of 6 years now, if they go P6 then they will always have the slot.

This is my take. Even if (big if) the 8-team system includes the same auto-bid for the G5, even if half of the teams in the country are in on it, the AAC has that slot 7 years out of 10, 9/10 with BYU and Boise in the fold. It can be called G5 all it wants, but it's a bid for our conference.

I agree with everything said about BYU's pride as it relates to Utah and all that. The above scenario however, is a fundamental change that might change their outlook. Like someone else said before, the very real opportunity to make the CFP ahead of Utah could be a decent enough carrot to change BYU's mind.
01-08-2021 08:25 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #569
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-08-2021 01:44 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 08:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 06:38 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

BYU+Boise and San Diego St = P6

Once the playoffs go to 8 teams and G5 gets an automatic bid the AAC champ will get a seat at the table.
Book it.g5 bid is code for AAC bid. While they've had the NY6 bid for 5 of 6 years now, if they go P6 then they will always have the slot.

BYU + Boise and Sad Diego St do not make the AAC a P6 conference. They make it a slightly better G5 conference. And, despite being a little stronger, that combo could actually reduce the chances for an AAC champion to make either a 4 team or 8 team playoff.

An undefeated G5 champion will always have the inside track on an NY6 bid under current rules. The addition of these schools could very well reduce the chances that the AAC champ would get through a season unbeaten, opening the door for a weaker (but unbeaten) champion from one of the other G5 conferences. And if there are no unbeaten G5 champs, then the AAC champ' chances of getting the bid are no better than they already are.

So, with so little upside, is it really worth adding the logistical difficulties of having schools in four different time zones?

No--not a P5---but a very solid P6. It might mean a raise, a unique identity as the only college "national conference", and the ability to offer inventory in any time zone.
For national broadcast or cable network, having a "national league" that offers a rooting interest in almost every region and timezone of the nation--including most of the top 10 TV markets---could be a very attractive TV property. Not SEC attractive of course---but maybe somewhere between MLS/Premier League money and Pac-12 money (say 15 million per team--give or take a few million).

I think your math is a little fuzzy here. To get the AAC up to $15 million each, more or less, the three adds would have to be deemed to add anywhere from $27 million to $55 million each. None of them is currently being paid more than the AAC is. It is more reasonable to say that these three, collectively, wouldn't reduce the current AAC per team payout.

And what's in it for BYU? If they joined the AAC they would have to agree to play a weaker schedule than they now are able to put together. How does that help their chances for a CFP berth? They are already playing a schedule that is equivalent to or better than most P5 schools. The 10 year average Sagarin strength rating of their 2021 schedule is 74. Notre Dame's, by comparison, is 76. The average rating for both the ACC and the B1G is 75. The AAC's rating is 67. The AAC, frankly, has very little, if anything, to offer BYU.
01-08-2021 08:37 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #570
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-08-2021 08:37 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 01:44 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 08:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 06:38 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

BYU+Boise and San Diego St = P6

Once the playoffs go to 8 teams and G5 gets an automatic bid the AAC champ will get a seat at the table.
Book it.g5 bid is code for AAC bid. While they've had the NY6 bid for 5 of 6 years now, if they go P6 then they will always have the slot.

BYU + Boise and Sad Diego St do not make the AAC a P6 conference. They make it a slightly better G5 conference. And, despite being a little stronger, that combo could actually reduce the chances for an AAC champion to make either a 4 team or 8 team playoff.

An undefeated G5 champion will always have the inside track on an NY6 bid under current rules. The addition of these schools could very well reduce the chances that the AAC champ would get through a season unbeaten, opening the door for a weaker (but unbeaten) champion from one of the other G5 conferences. And if there are no unbeaten G5 champs, then the AAC champ' chances of getting the bid are no better than they already are.

So, with so little upside, is it really worth adding the logistical difficulties of having schools in four different time zones?

No--not a P5---but a very solid P6. It might mean a raise, a unique identity as the only college "national conference", and the ability to offer inventory in any time zone.
For national broadcast or cable network, having a "national league" that offers a rooting interest in almost every region and timezone of the nation--including most of the top 10 TV markets---could be a very attractive TV property. Not SEC attractive of course---but maybe somewhere between MLS/Premier League money and Pac-12 money (say 15 million per team--give or take a few million).

I think your math is a little fuzzy here. To get the AAC up to $15 million each, more or less, the three adds would have to be deemed to add anywhere from $27 million to $55 million each. None of them is currently being paid more than the AAC is. It is more reasonable to say that these three, collectively, wouldn't reduce the current AAC per team payout.

And what's in it for BYU? If they joined the AAC they would have to agree to play a weaker schedule than they now are able to put together. How does that help their chances for a CFP berth? They are already playing a schedule that is equivalent to or better than most P5 schools. The 10 year average Sagarin strength rating of their 2021 schedule is 74. Notre Dame's, by comparison, is 76. The average rating for both the ACC and the B1G is 75. The AAC's rating is 67. The AAC, frankly, has very little, if anything, to offer BYU.

My underlying assumption in this discussion is that the 5-1-2 CFP occurs with the top G5 champ getting an auto-bid to the CFP. BYU would have no interest otherwise. But, in a situation where the 5+1-2 is the CFP format—the AAC would have increased value due actually mattering in terms of the playoff, due to the increased footprint, due to having games in all 4 time zones due offering rooting interests in virtually every region of the nation, and due to the addition of a relatively big name in BYU. Also keep in mind, it would be quite some time before they would have an opportunity to actually cash in on their new full value.
01-08-2021 09:38 AM
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