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Boise St looking to move on from MWC
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 11:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If I recall, Boise State - between its CBS/FS1 TV deal and its payouts from the MWC - should be getting around $7/$8 million annually between the sources of revenue. The present AAC TV deal is backloaded, again if I recall correctly, with AAC members not getting the $8/$9 million annually until the end of the deal. Thus, unless ESPN offered a sweetener, Boise State would have to take a pay cut to go to the AAC. Unlike UConn-Big East move, Boise State has little-to-no associations with the AAC or with any of its members. There is no emotional pull to draw them in, nor does it help with Olympic sports or travel costs. It didn't sound like ESPN was particularly down on losing more Boise State games to FS1 or CBS, even though Boise appeared on ESPN over 100 times since 1999. There is obviously benefit for the AAC to add Boise State; it doesn't make the AAC a P6, but it does widen the gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5. I just continue to not see what is in it for Boise State. Whether they are in the MWC or the AAC, they would have to go undefeated, unless in a unique year, to get access to the NY6 Bowl. It is probably an easier path for them to do that in the MWC.

As noted, Army, BYU or Boise State do not appear likely to be joining the AAC any time soon. If it made sense for any of those schools, they would have done so as soon as UConn left. No other program was going to add value to the AAC TV deal, so it made no sense to rush to expand when there were no clear candidates to add.

For Boise State, I think the best path for them is actually if Texas/Oklahoma depart the Big 12, causing whomever is left behind to back fill with the best of rest. They could be taken, along with BYU, with the top of the AAC. That groups them with associated power programs, while taking the top brands of the G5 to form a slightly elevated version of a best of the rest league.

Well, first off---The MW deal is back loaded as well. All these TV deals are back loaded. Secondly, Boise was expecting 5.7 in revenue from the MW in 2020 (not 7 or 8). Third, the MW has made it clear Boise's current "sweetheart deal" with the MW will end after this TV contract (5 football seasons left), so the MW could get potentially get a small raise on the next TV deal that actually results in a Boise pay cut. Finally, Boise isnt too happy with its conference mates right now and does not apparently believe they are committed to raising the level of the conference.

In the end---will Boise leave? Who knows? Whats clear is it was Boise who was looking around with the AAC as the only viable landing spot. Right now, the AAC appears to be content to sit at 11 football members until a school that actually substantially adds to the conference value and perception is available. Boise is one of the few teams that probably fits that criteria--so I could see the two getting together. My feeling is that as time clicks off the odometer of the current Mountain West TV deal, the more eager Boise will be to pull the trigger on an AAC union.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/co...30068.html

My mistake. I misread the details of the article. $5.7 is right.

So, what would a football-only share within the AAC look like? 2/3? 3/4?
12-17-2020 01:03 PM
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46566 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 12:29 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is the crown jewel in the MWC. But, what if Boise State helping the WAC out right now? Helping the WAC talking to the Big West.

California Baptist
Seattle U.
Boise State Olympic sports
Azusa Pacific

With Chicago State looking for cost savings? This would make the WAC a lot more attractable.
This article about Boise State came out right after the articles about the WAC and the article from NMSU AD about WAC being FBS in the future.

Azusa pacific just lost football and is all but useless to the WAC FBS hopes. Should the FBS rumors be true I highly suspect Seattle will be politely asked to find another conference. Chicago State is all but getting kicked out of the WAC. I have to ask why would the WAC go for schools in the northern US when every move seemed to be going with the southern School in Texas, arizona and the like.
12-17-2020 01:08 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 11:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If I recall, Boise State - between its CBS/FS1 TV deal and its payouts from the MWC - should be getting around $7/$8 million annually between the sources of revenue. The present AAC TV deal is backloaded, again if I recall correctly, with AAC members not getting the $8/$9 million annually until the end of the deal. Thus, unless ESPN offered a sweetener, Boise State would have to take a pay cut to go to the AAC. Unlike UConn-Big East move, Boise State has little-to-no associations with the AAC or with any of its members. There is no emotional pull to draw them in, nor does it help with Olympic sports or travel costs. It didn't sound like ESPN was particularly down on losing more Boise State games to FS1 or CBS, even though Boise appeared on ESPN over 100 times since 1999. There is obviously benefit for the AAC to add Boise State; it doesn't make the AAC a P6, but it does widen the gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5. I just continue to not see what is in it for Boise State. Whether they are in the MWC or the AAC, they would have to go undefeated, unless in a unique year, to get access to the NY6 Bowl. It is probably an easier path for them to do that in the MWC.

As noted, Army, BYU or Boise State do not appear likely to be joining the AAC any time soon. If it made sense for any of those schools, they would have done so as soon as UConn left. No other program was going to add value to the AAC TV deal, so it made no sense to rush to expand when there were no clear candidates to add.

For Boise State, I think the best path for them is actually if Texas/Oklahoma depart the Big 12, causing whomever is left behind to back fill with the best of rest. They could be taken, along with BYU, with the top of the AAC. That groups them with associated power programs, while taking the top brands of the G5 to form a slightly elevated version of a best of the rest league.

Well, first off---The MW deal is back loaded as well. All these TV deals are back loaded. Secondly, Boise was expecting 5.7 in revenue from the MW in 2020 (not 7 or 8). Third, the MW has made it clear Boise's current "sweetheart deal" with the MW will end after this TV contract (5 football seasons left), so the MW could get potentially get a small raise on the next TV deal that actually results in a Boise pay cut. Finally, Boise isnt too happy with its conference mates right now and does not apparently believe they are committed to raising the level of the conference.

In the end---will Boise leave? Who knows? Whats clear is it was Boise who was looking around with the AAC as the only viable landing spot. Right now, the AAC appears to be content to sit at 11 football members until a school that actually substantially adds to the conference value and perception is available. Boise is one of the few teams that probably fits that criteria--so I could see the two getting together. My feeling is that as time clicks off the odometer of the current Mountain West TV deal, the more eager Boise will be to pull the trigger on an AAC union.

The AAC is not viable from Boise's point of view unless it's for full membership. The whole point of the email exchange between Boise's football coach and AD is that they can't go anywhere unless there's an acceptable conference for all of their sports, and they are never going to consider the WAC or Big Sky acceptable to them. People can argue all they want about whether Boise's attitude toward those conferences is correct, but it isn't going to change.
12-17-2020 01:19 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 01:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 11:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If I recall, Boise State - between its CBS/FS1 TV deal and its payouts from the MWC - should be getting around $7/$8 million annually between the sources of revenue. The present AAC TV deal is backloaded, again if I recall correctly, with AAC members not getting the $8/$9 million annually until the end of the deal. Thus, unless ESPN offered a sweetener, Boise State would have to take a pay cut to go to the AAC. Unlike UConn-Big East move, Boise State has little-to-no associations with the AAC or with any of its members. There is no emotional pull to draw them in, nor does it help with Olympic sports or travel costs. It didn't sound like ESPN was particularly down on losing more Boise State games to FS1 or CBS, even though Boise appeared on ESPN over 100 times since 1999. There is obviously benefit for the AAC to add Boise State; it doesn't make the AAC a P6, but it does widen the gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5. I just continue to not see what is in it for Boise State. Whether they are in the MWC or the AAC, they would have to go undefeated, unless in a unique year, to get access to the NY6 Bowl. It is probably an easier path for them to do that in the MWC.

As noted, Army, BYU or Boise State do not appear likely to be joining the AAC any time soon. If it made sense for any of those schools, they would have done so as soon as UConn left. No other program was going to add value to the AAC TV deal, so it made no sense to rush to expand when there were no clear candidates to add.

For Boise State, I think the best path for them is actually if Texas/Oklahoma depart the Big 12, causing whomever is left behind to back fill with the best of rest. They could be taken, along with BYU, with the top of the AAC. That groups them with associated power programs, while taking the top brands of the G5 to form a slightly elevated version of a best of the rest league.

Well, first off---The MW deal is back loaded as well. All these TV deals are back loaded. Secondly, Boise was expecting 5.7 in revenue from the MW in 2020 (not 7 or 8). Third, the MW has made it clear Boise's current "sweetheart deal" with the MW will end after this TV contract (5 football seasons left), so the MW could get potentially get a small raise on the next TV deal that actually results in a Boise pay cut. Finally, Boise isnt too happy with its conference mates right now and does not apparently believe they are committed to raising the level of the conference.

In the end---will Boise leave? Who knows? Whats clear is it was Boise who was looking around with the AAC as the only viable landing spot. Right now, the AAC appears to be content to sit at 11 football members until a school that actually substantially adds to the conference value and perception is available. Boise is one of the few teams that probably fits that criteria--so I could see the two getting together. My feeling is that as time clicks off the odometer of the current Mountain West TV deal, the more eager Boise will be to pull the trigger on an AAC union.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/co...30068.html

My mistake. I misread the details of the article. $5.7 is right.

So, what would a football-only share within the AAC look like? 2/3? 3/4?

The original invitation agreements with Boise, SDSU, UH, SMU, and UCF specified a 70/30 football/basketball split. I'd guess something similar would be used if Boise came over--so about 5 million would be a good working number guess for a football only membership. That said--I think ESPN would probably be interested in the Boise late start games as they are light on late start inventory. Thus, it would not be a shocker if ESPN was willing to add some sort of sweetener for the AAC---or a side deal with Boise---to make the union work. Another way it becomes more viable is if Boise is just part of a 3 team group that comes to the AAC. That give ESPN as many as 18 games of late start inventory. Its not inconceivable that ESPN might like that idea enough to pay another 10 million to get 18 late starts that include 6 Boise home games and at least 2 late start Boise road games.
(This post was last modified: 12-17-2020 01:37 PM by Attackcoog.)
12-17-2020 01:33 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 12:37 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  I could see ESPN being interested in a package of BYU/Boise/SDSU/Hawaii. If those 4 all were independent, they could have November covered and maximize their share of TV money as opposed to being with a full fledged conference

...or just pull another Mountain West-style coup to trim some fat and secure BYU:

BYU
Boise St.
Wyoming
Colorado St.
Air Force
New Mexico
UNLV
San Diego State
Hawaii

Fresno St., San Jose St., Nevada, and Utah State are then left to rebuild with New Mexico St. and UTEP, and maybe a couple Texas schools.

I think the kicker is though to keep it small enough so you can maximize games against P5 opponents.

Getting P5 games late in the season is tough, so my keeping it at 4, they can help each other fill in the gaps when needed and maximizing flexibility to ensure the most P5 opponents.
12-17-2020 01:35 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 01:35 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:37 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  I could see ESPN being interested in a package of BYU/Boise/SDSU/Hawaii. If those 4 all were independent, they could have November covered and maximize their share of TV money as opposed to being with a full fledged conference

...or just pull another Mountain West-style coup to trim some fat and secure BYU:

BYU
Boise St.
Wyoming
Colorado St.
Air Force
New Mexico
UNLV
San Diego State
Hawaii

Fresno St., San Jose St., Nevada, and Utah State are then left to rebuild with New Mexico St. and UTEP, and maybe a couple Texas schools.

I think the kicker is though to keep it small enough so you can maximize games against P5 opponents.

Getting P5 games late in the season is tough, so my keeping it at 4, they can help each other fill in the gaps when needed and maximizing flexibility to ensure the most P5 opponents.

You just have to find a suitable home for SDSU and Boise State Olympic sports.

Although they would be crashing the WCC's private religious institution party, I do think that BYU and Gonzaga would welcome both. And, the geography is great for travel-based scheduling. I note that BYU and San Diego have been WCC "travel partners" in various sports.

Gonzaga-Portland
BYU-Boise
San Francisco-Santa Clara
Saint Mary's-Pacific
Pepperdine-LMU
San Diego-SDSU

So, WCC teams make their Oregon-Washington Northwest road trip or their Utah-Idaho Mountain road trip.
12-17-2020 02:05 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 01:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 01:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 11:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If I recall, Boise State - between its CBS/FS1 TV deal and its payouts from the MWC - should be getting around $7/$8 million annually between the sources of revenue. The present AAC TV deal is backloaded, again if I recall correctly, with AAC members not getting the $8/$9 million annually until the end of the deal. Thus, unless ESPN offered a sweetener, Boise State would have to take a pay cut to go to the AAC. Unlike UConn-Big East move, Boise State has little-to-no associations with the AAC or with any of its members. There is no emotional pull to draw them in, nor does it help with Olympic sports or travel costs. It didn't sound like ESPN was particularly down on losing more Boise State games to FS1 or CBS, even though Boise appeared on ESPN over 100 times since 1999. There is obviously benefit for the AAC to add Boise State; it doesn't make the AAC a P6, but it does widen the gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5. I just continue to not see what is in it for Boise State. Whether they are in the MWC or the AAC, they would have to go undefeated, unless in a unique year, to get access to the NY6 Bowl. It is probably an easier path for them to do that in the MWC.

As noted, Army, BYU or Boise State do not appear likely to be joining the AAC any time soon. If it made sense for any of those schools, they would have done so as soon as UConn left. No other program was going to add value to the AAC TV deal, so it made no sense to rush to expand when there were no clear candidates to add.

For Boise State, I think the best path for them is actually if Texas/Oklahoma depart the Big 12, causing whomever is left behind to back fill with the best of rest. They could be taken, along with BYU, with the top of the AAC. That groups them with associated power programs, while taking the top brands of the G5 to form a slightly elevated version of a best of the rest league.

Well, first off---The MW deal is back loaded as well. All these TV deals are back loaded. Secondly, Boise was expecting 5.7 in revenue from the MW in 2020 (not 7 or 8). Third, the MW has made it clear Boise's current "sweetheart deal" with the MW will end after this TV contract (5 football seasons left), so the MW could get potentially get a small raise on the next TV deal that actually results in a Boise pay cut. Finally, Boise isnt too happy with its conference mates right now and does not apparently believe they are committed to raising the level of the conference.

In the end---will Boise leave? Who knows? Whats clear is it was Boise who was looking around with the AAC as the only viable landing spot. Right now, the AAC appears to be content to sit at 11 football members until a school that actually substantially adds to the conference value and perception is available. Boise is one of the few teams that probably fits that criteria--so I could see the two getting together. My feeling is that as time clicks off the odometer of the current Mountain West TV deal, the more eager Boise will be to pull the trigger on an AAC union.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/co...30068.html

My mistake. I misread the details of the article. $5.7 is right.

So, what would a football-only share within the AAC look like? 2/3? 3/4?

The original invitation agreements with Boise, SDSU, UH, SMU, and UCF specified a 70/30 football/basketball split. I'd guess something similar would be used if Boise came over--so about 5 million would be a good working number guess for a football only membership. That said--I think ESPN would probably be interested in the Boise late start games as they are light on late start inventory. Thus, it would not be a shocker if ESPN was willing to add some sort of sweetener for the AAC---or a side deal with Boise---to make the union work. Another way it becomes more viable is if Boise is just part of a 3 team group that comes to the AAC. That give ESPN as many as 18 games of late start inventory. Its not inconceivable that ESPN might like that idea enough to pay another 10 million to get 18 late starts that include 6 Boise home games and at least 2 late start Boise road games.

That 70/30 split was arranged back when the Catholic 7 were still around. Today’s evaluation is closer to 75/25 or 80/20.

I agree though, if Boise and a pair of other western schools came in that would open up the opportunity for a late night time slot in the AAC tv contract. Home games for the Mountain/Pacific time zone teams could be optioned for a 10:30 eastern start.

Heck, you might even bring 5 M-P schools (say Boise, BYU, AFA, Fresno, and SDSU) to really capitalize on AAC-After-Dark.

I’ve coined the term—Aresco if you try and use it I want royalties.
12-17-2020 02:08 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 01:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 01:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 11:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If I recall, Boise State - between its CBS/FS1 TV deal and its payouts from the MWC - should be getting around $7/$8 million annually between the sources of revenue. The present AAC TV deal is backloaded, again if I recall correctly, with AAC members not getting the $8/$9 million annually until the end of the deal. Thus, unless ESPN offered a sweetener, Boise State would have to take a pay cut to go to the AAC. Unlike UConn-Big East move, Boise State has little-to-no associations with the AAC or with any of its members. There is no emotional pull to draw them in, nor does it help with Olympic sports or travel costs. It didn't sound like ESPN was particularly down on losing more Boise State games to FS1 or CBS, even though Boise appeared on ESPN over 100 times since 1999. There is obviously benefit for the AAC to add Boise State; it doesn't make the AAC a P6, but it does widen the gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5. I just continue to not see what is in it for Boise State. Whether they are in the MWC or the AAC, they would have to go undefeated, unless in a unique year, to get access to the NY6 Bowl. It is probably an easier path for them to do that in the MWC.

As noted, Army, BYU or Boise State do not appear likely to be joining the AAC any time soon. If it made sense for any of those schools, they would have done so as soon as UConn left. No other program was going to add value to the AAC TV deal, so it made no sense to rush to expand when there were no clear candidates to add.

For Boise State, I think the best path for them is actually if Texas/Oklahoma depart the Big 12, causing whomever is left behind to back fill with the best of rest. They could be taken, along with BYU, with the top of the AAC. That groups them with associated power programs, while taking the top brands of the G5 to form a slightly elevated version of a best of the rest league.

Well, first off---The MW deal is back loaded as well. All these TV deals are back loaded. Secondly, Boise was expecting 5.7 in revenue from the MW in 2020 (not 7 or 8). Third, the MW has made it clear Boise's current "sweetheart deal" with the MW will end after this TV contract (5 football seasons left), so the MW could get potentially get a small raise on the next TV deal that actually results in a Boise pay cut. Finally, Boise isnt too happy with its conference mates right now and does not apparently believe they are committed to raising the level of the conference.

In the end---will Boise leave? Who knows? Whats clear is it was Boise who was looking around with the AAC as the only viable landing spot. Right now, the AAC appears to be content to sit at 11 football members until a school that actually substantially adds to the conference value and perception is available. Boise is one of the few teams that probably fits that criteria--so I could see the two getting together. My feeling is that as time clicks off the odometer of the current Mountain West TV deal, the more eager Boise will be to pull the trigger on an AAC union.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/co...30068.html

My mistake. I misread the details of the article. $5.7 is right.

So, what would a football-only share within the AAC look like? 2/3? 3/4?

The original invitation agreements with Boise, SDSU, UH, SMU, and UCF specified a 70/30 football/basketball split. I'd guess something similar would be used if Boise came over--so about 5 million would be a good working number guess for a football only membership. That said--I think ESPN would probably be interested in the Boise late start games as they are light on late start inventory. Thus, it would not be a shocker if ESPN was willing to add some sort of sweetener for the AAC---or a side deal with Boise---to make the union work. Another way it becomes more viable is if Boise is just part of a 3 team group that comes to the AAC. That give ESPN as many as 18 games of late start inventory. Its not inconceivable that ESPN might like that idea enough to pay another 10 million to get 18 late starts that include 6 Boise home games and at least 2 late start Boise road games.

I guess I am not just bullish on the possibility of an AAC/Boise union, but we will all see. Boise alone, in theory, wouldn't satisfy for west coast content for ESPN/AAC because they are just one school - and if they have a road game, literally anywhere, within the AAC, then it makes the whole late night programming draw a moot point anyways. If Boise was paired with a BYU, SDSU and a CSU, then you would always have at least one late night game to showcase under the AAC brand, but we all know the historical hurdles within a proposed national coast-to-coast league. That also cuts the pie even more to the existing members, which would not get approved.

I go back to my original thought that if Boise/AAC made sense, it would have happened already. Nothing, even during COVID, has radically changed that makes the AAC want Boise State more, nor does Boise State institutionally need the AAC more. If Boise State has an undefeated season, it is likely that they are the NY6 rep; if the AAC Champ also goes undefeated, and Boise gets left out, then maybe that changes their thought - but that has not happened yet.

Again, I guess we will wait and see.
12-17-2020 02:09 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 02:05 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 01:35 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:37 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  I could see ESPN being interested in a package of BYU/Boise/SDSU/Hawaii. If those 4 all were independent, they could have November covered and maximize their share of TV money as opposed to being with a full fledged conference

...or just pull another Mountain West-style coup to trim some fat and secure BYU:

BYU
Boise St.
Wyoming
Colorado St.
Air Force
New Mexico
UNLV
San Diego State
Hawaii

Fresno St., San Jose St., Nevada, and Utah State are then left to rebuild with New Mexico St. and UTEP, and maybe a couple Texas schools.

I think the kicker is though to keep it small enough so you can maximize games against P5 opponents.

Getting P5 games late in the season is tough, so my keeping it at 4, they can help each other fill in the gaps when needed and maximizing flexibility to ensure the most P5 opponents.

You just have to find a suitable home for SDSU and Boise State Olympic sports.

Although they would be crashing the WCC's private religious institution party, I do think that BYU and Gonzaga would welcome both. And, the geography is great for travel-based scheduling. I note that BYU and San Diego have been WCC "travel partners" in various sports.

Gonzaga-Portland
BYU-Boise
San Francisco-Santa Clara
Saint Mary's-Pacific
Pepperdine-LMU
San Diego-SDSU

So, WCC teams make their Oregon-Washington Northwest road trip or their Utah-Idaho Mountain road trip.

That would be a pretty sweet set-up.
12-17-2020 02:18 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 02:09 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 01:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 01:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 11:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If I recall, Boise State - between its CBS/FS1 TV deal and its payouts from the MWC - should be getting around $7/$8 million annually between the sources of revenue. The present AAC TV deal is backloaded, again if I recall correctly, with AAC members not getting the $8/$9 million annually until the end of the deal. Thus, unless ESPN offered a sweetener, Boise State would have to take a pay cut to go to the AAC. Unlike UConn-Big East move, Boise State has little-to-no associations with the AAC or with any of its members. There is no emotional pull to draw them in, nor does it help with Olympic sports or travel costs. It didn't sound like ESPN was particularly down on losing more Boise State games to FS1 or CBS, even though Boise appeared on ESPN over 100 times since 1999. There is obviously benefit for the AAC to add Boise State; it doesn't make the AAC a P6, but it does widen the gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5. I just continue to not see what is in it for Boise State. Whether they are in the MWC or the AAC, they would have to go undefeated, unless in a unique year, to get access to the NY6 Bowl. It is probably an easier path for them to do that in the MWC.

As noted, Army, BYU or Boise State do not appear likely to be joining the AAC any time soon. If it made sense for any of those schools, they would have done so as soon as UConn left. No other program was going to add value to the AAC TV deal, so it made no sense to rush to expand when there were no clear candidates to add.

For Boise State, I think the best path for them is actually if Texas/Oklahoma depart the Big 12, causing whomever is left behind to back fill with the best of rest. They could be taken, along with BYU, with the top of the AAC. That groups them with associated power programs, while taking the top brands of the G5 to form a slightly elevated version of a best of the rest league.

Well, first off---The MW deal is back loaded as well. All these TV deals are back loaded. Secondly, Boise was expecting 5.7 in revenue from the MW in 2020 (not 7 or 8). Third, the MW has made it clear Boise's current "sweetheart deal" with the MW will end after this TV contract (5 football seasons left), so the MW could get potentially get a small raise on the next TV deal that actually results in a Boise pay cut. Finally, Boise isnt too happy with its conference mates right now and does not apparently believe they are committed to raising the level of the conference.

In the end---will Boise leave? Who knows? Whats clear is it was Boise who was looking around with the AAC as the only viable landing spot. Right now, the AAC appears to be content to sit at 11 football members until a school that actually substantially adds to the conference value and perception is available. Boise is one of the few teams that probably fits that criteria--so I could see the two getting together. My feeling is that as time clicks off the odometer of the current Mountain West TV deal, the more eager Boise will be to pull the trigger on an AAC union.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/co...30068.html

My mistake. I misread the details of the article. $5.7 is right.

So, what would a football-only share within the AAC look like? 2/3? 3/4?

The original invitation agreements with Boise, SDSU, UH, SMU, and UCF specified a 70/30 football/basketball split. I'd guess something similar would be used if Boise came over--so about 5 million would be a good working number guess for a football only membership. That said--I think ESPN would probably be interested in the Boise late start games as they are light on late start inventory. Thus, it would not be a shocker if ESPN was willing to add some sort of sweetener for the AAC---or a side deal with Boise---to make the union work. Another way it becomes more viable is if Boise is just part of a 3 team group that comes to the AAC. That give ESPN as many as 18 games of late start inventory. Its not inconceivable that ESPN might like that idea enough to pay another 10 million to get 18 late starts that include 6 Boise home games and at least 2 late start Boise road games.

I guess I am not just bullish on the possibility of an AAC/Boise union, but we will all see. Boise alone, in theory, wouldn't satisfy for west coast content for ESPN/AAC because they are just one school - and if they have a road game, literally anywhere, within the AAC, then it makes the whole late night programming draw a moot point anyways. If Boise was paired with a BYU, SDSU and a CSU, then you would always have at least one late night game to showcase under the AAC brand, but we all know the historical hurdles within a proposed national coast-to-coast league. That also cuts the pie even more to the existing members, which would not get approved.

I go back to my original thought that if Boise/AAC made sense, it would have happened already. Nothing, even during COVID, has radically changed that makes the AAC want Boise State more, nor does Boise State institutionally need the AAC more. If Boise State has an undefeated season, it is likely that they are the NY6 rep; if the AAC Champ also goes undefeated, and Boise gets left out, then maybe that changes their thought - but that has not happened yet.

Again, I guess we will wait and see.

I think to a large extent you were correct. I agree---I didnt think Boise to the AAC made much sense----until the AAC new 7 million deal was negotiation AND---the MW told Boise their permanent "special deal" now has an expiration date. Those events were game changers in my view.
(This post was last modified: 12-17-2020 02:49 PM by Attackcoog.)
12-17-2020 02:48 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 02:18 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 02:05 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 01:35 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:37 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:10 PM)solohawks Wrote:  I could see ESPN being interested in a package of BYU/Boise/SDSU/Hawaii. If those 4 all were independent, they could have November covered and maximize their share of TV money as opposed to being with a full fledged conference

...or just pull another Mountain West-style coup to trim some fat and secure BYU:

BYU
Boise St.
Wyoming
Colorado St.
Air Force
New Mexico
UNLV
San Diego State
Hawaii

Fresno St., San Jose St., Nevada, and Utah State are then left to rebuild with New Mexico St. and UTEP, and maybe a couple Texas schools.

I think the kicker is though to keep it small enough so you can maximize games against P5 opponents.

Getting P5 games late in the season is tough, so my keeping it at 4, they can help each other fill in the gaps when needed and maximizing flexibility to ensure the most P5 opponents.

You just have to find a suitable home for SDSU and Boise State Olympic sports.

Although they would be crashing the WCC's private religious institution party, I do think that BYU and Gonzaga would welcome both. And, the geography is great for travel-based scheduling. I note that BYU and San Diego have been WCC "travel partners" in various sports.

Gonzaga-Portland
BYU-Boise
San Francisco-Santa Clara
Saint Mary's-Pacific
Pepperdine-LMU
San Diego-SDSU

So, WCC teams make their Oregon-Washington Northwest road trip or their Utah-Idaho Mountain road trip.

That would be a pretty sweet set-up.

You could even keep 16 conference games

Using the previous year's NET Rankings, the top 6 could play each other home and home while the bottom 6 do the game (10 games). Then to fill out the other 6 games, you play the other tier 3 home/3 away.

Pitching it to Gonzaga using the 2019 2020 final NET rankings - you would be guaranteed 2 games against BYU, St. Mary's, San Francisco, Boise St, and SDSU (all top 100) while only playing 6 games total against Pacific, Pepperdine, Santa Clara, LMU, San Diego, Portland.

If Im Boise, Im trying to get creative and make something like that happen. They seem to have no problem going indy if they could take care of their other sports. Also, ESPN would be able to use this stronger WCC/ West Coast Indy football combo as levarage against the PAC
12-17-2020 02:59 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
The one hesitation I see Gonzaga and St Mary’s types having regarding letting schools like SDSU and Boise St park their Olympic sports in the WCC is that Boise and SDSU be able to spend football earnings and athletic fees from their large student bodies on basketball and that the best of the WCC doesn’t have that kind of dough. Then again, BYU is already doing that very same thing and as a giant LDS school they don’t exactly fit the private Catholic school (and the one nominally UMC one) mold
12-17-2020 04:51 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 04:51 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The one hesitation I see Gonzaga and St Mary’s types having regarding letting schools like SDSU and Boise St park their Olympic sports in the WCC is that Boise and SDSU be able to spend football earnings and athletic fees from their large student bodies on basketball and that the best of the WCC doesn’t have that kind of dough. Then again, BYU is already doing that very same thing and as a giant LDS school they don’t exactly fit the private Catholic school (and the one nominally UMC one) mold

I dont think Gonzaga or even St. Mary's would have a problem. I think its the other schools that would have a problem. BYU was ok because they were a religious private like the others and it was just 1. Asking for more with 1 or 2 large public football schools might be a bridge to far.

I doubt it will happen but it would be sweet if it did.

Plus I really like the idea of tiered scheduling. If travel could be managed, more of these bus leagues should pursue a strategic scheduling.
12-17-2020 05:30 PM
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mike012779 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
My question is why do people think the Pac 12 would ever consider Boise St? Stanford and Boise St in the same conference?
12-17-2020 08:15 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 01:08 PM)46566 Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:29 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is the crown jewel in the MWC. But, what if Boise State helping the WAC out right now? Helping the WAC talking to the Big West.

California Baptist
Seattle U.
Boise State Olympic sports
Azusa Pacific

With Chicago State looking for cost savings? This would make the WAC a lot more attractable.
This article about Boise State came out right after the articles about the WAC and the article from NMSU AD about WAC being FBS in the future.

Azusa pacific just lost football and is all but useless to the WAC FBS hopes. Should the FBS rumors be true I highly suspect Seattle will be politely asked to find another conference. Chicago State is all but getting kicked out of the WAC. I have to ask why would the WAC go for schools in the northern US when every move seemed to be going with the southern School in Texas, arizona and the like.


Boise State to the Big West for olympic sports. They get Seattle U. as a travel partner. California Baptist and Azusa Pacific to the Big West to replace UC-Davis and Cal. Poly to the WAC. There are also someone hearing the rumors that Hawaii may move the rest of their sports to the MWC. More money and MWC>Big West in men's basketball.
12-17-2020 10:23 PM
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AZcats Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 10:23 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 01:08 PM)46566 Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 12:29 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is the crown jewel in the MWC. But, what if Boise State helping the WAC out right now? Helping the WAC talking to the Big West.

California Baptist
Seattle U.
Boise State Olympic sports
Azusa Pacific

With Chicago State looking for cost savings? This would make the WAC a lot more attractable.
This article about Boise State came out right after the articles about the WAC and the article from NMSU AD about WAC being FBS in the future.

Azusa pacific just lost football and is all but useless to the WAC FBS hopes. Should the FBS rumors be true I highly suspect Seattle will be politely asked to find another conference. Chicago State is all but getting kicked out of the WAC. I have to ask why would the WAC go for schools in the northern US when every move seemed to be going with the southern School in Texas, arizona and the like.


Boise State to the Big West for olympic sports. They get Seattle U. as a travel partner. California Baptist and Azusa Pacific to the Big West to replace UC-Davis and Cal. Poly to the WAC. There are also someone hearing the rumors that Hawaii may move the rest of their sports to the MWC. More money and MWC>Big West in men's basketball.

Seriously! Azusa Pacific just dropped football to cut expenses and you still think they are going D1? It might be cheaper to keep football than go D1.
12-17-2020 10:54 PM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 05:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(12-17-2020 04:51 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The one hesitation I see Gonzaga and St Mary’s types having regarding letting schools like SDSU and Boise St park their Olympic sports in the WCC is that Boise and SDSU be able to spend football earnings and athletic fees from their large student bodies on basketball and that the best of the WCC doesn’t have that kind of dough. Then again, BYU is already doing that very same thing and as a giant LDS school they don’t exactly fit the private Catholic school (and the one nominally UMC one) mold

I dont think Gonzaga or even St. Mary's would have a problem. I think its the other schools that would have a problem. BYU was ok because they were a religious private like the others and it was just 1. Asking for more with 1 or 2 large public football schools might be a bridge to far.

I doubt it will happen but it would be sweet if it did.

Plus I really like the idea of tiered scheduling. If travel could be managed, more of these bus leagues should pursue a strategic scheduling.

I don't know about Boise but now that 11 team conferences are fashionable the WCC could look into AFA. The wouldn't make the conference stronger in basketball but offer a nice draw with local AF people turning out.
12-17-2020 11:52 PM
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Post: #58
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
Boise’s situation (much better football program than any of their conference mates, with only BYU as an equal in the G5 region) reminds me a little of someone who builds a $700,000 house in a neighborhood of $350,000 houses. And then is complaining about not being able to sell it for the full $700,000. Yes it may be worth the full price, but no one who can afford a $700,000 house wants to live in a $350,000 neighborhood.

Boise isn’t going to be invited to the Pac12 ( they live on the other side of the railroad tracks) and they can’t move their house (at least not their Olympic pool) to the AAC neighborhood. So they are basically stuck. Sell - and take an independent bath, or just make the best of living with their low-life neighbors.
12-18-2020 12:07 AM
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Post: #59
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-17-2020 12:29 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is the crown jewel in the MWC. But, what if Boise State helping the WAC out right now? Helping the WAC talking to the Big West.

California Baptist
Seattle U.
Boise State Olympic sports
Azusa Pacific

With Chicago State looking for cost savings? This would make the WAC a lot more attractable.
This article about Boise State came out right after the articles about the WAC and the article from NMSU AD about WAC being FBS in the future.

Chicago State should close to save costs IMO.

Boise State's brand has held strong for 20 years. I'd like to think they can stand on their own two feet without the MWC in football.

They could load up on an independent schedule with 4 or 5 big games a season including BYU. All on national TV.

I think the G5 access bid is overrated as a factor for Boise. Its not meaningful anymore as all the attention is on the 4 teams for the playoff. They could do just as well trying to schedule for a Top 10 season.

It might be a better fit than the AAC with its long flights and relatively higher level of challenge to win.
12-18-2020 12:12 AM
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Post: #60
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(12-18-2020 12:07 AM)NuMexAg Wrote:  Boise’s situation (much better football program than any of their conference mates, with only BYU as an equal in the G5 region) reminds me a little of someone who builds a $700,000 house in a neighborhood of $350,000 houses. And then is complaining about not being able to sell it for the full $700,000. Yes it may be worth the full price, but no one who can afford a $700,000 house wants to live in a $350,000 neighborhood.

Boise isn’t going to be invited to the Pac12 ( they live on the other side of the railroad tracks) and they can’t move their house (at least not their Olympic pool) to the AAC neighborhood. So they are basically stuck. Sell - and take an independent bath, or just make the best of living with their low-life neighbors.

Go independent. They have enough brand for it.

They travel nicely to bowl games and could earn their own tie-ins.
12-18-2020 12:16 AM
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